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Published on Thursday, 19 July 2018 22:10

TDF 2018 Stage 13

Bourg d'Oisans / Valence

Fri 20th July, 169.5kms 

After three successive days in the Alps, the race heads back to the flatter terrain, to give the GC men a well-deserved rest and the sprinters their one and only chance to do something on this second week.

A s they are starting in Bourg d'Oisans though, of course they are still over 700m in altitude as they roll out to start the stage. After a descent and a little 3rd Cat bump after 32kms, the rest of the stage is pretty flat, bar an uncategorised hill with about 40kms left that could catch a lot of the sprinters out. There is a chance the break could make it on a day like today, being the first day after three hard mountain stages, and we could see a late attack also deny the fast men, but it's more likely though that we will see a sprint of some kind in Valence. 

Stage 12 Review

Another crazy stage in the Alps, lit up early on by Movistar and Lotto Jumbo who went on the attack on the Madeleine, putting Sky under pressure, enough to see Rowe and Moscon shelled out early on on the Croix de Fer. Kruijswijk and Gesink were in the break for LJ, Valverde and Amador for Movistar, Rolland and Martinez for EF, and Warren Barguil chasing mountain points with Majka and Alaphilippe until Alaphilippe got dropped on the Croix de Fer. 

Meanwhile, in the peloton, abandons were coming in thick and fast, Dylan Groenewegen, Andrei Greipel, Fernado Gaviria, Tony Gallopin.. They joined Rigo Uran who didn't start, making our under 148.5 finishers look pretty much a certainty now, with just 153 finishing the stage. 

Suddenly Kruijswijk  attacks, and very quickly built up a lead of over 6 minutes on the Croix de Fer, putting him comfortably in the virtual yellow jersey. Movistar and AG2R took up the pulling and Yates went out the back door, while up front Sky started to turn the screw on the Croix de Fer until suddenly there were only about 30 riders still in the race. 

Kruijswijk hit the Alpe with over 5 minutes lead and traded to 1/2 and shorter on Betfair.. But Bernal went to the front and rode at the front for over 7kms, burying everyone, including Martin and Landa. The GC men traded blows, Bardet attacked, Froome attacked, Dumoulin attacked, Quintana got dropped, Nibali hit a motorbike. There was just so much drama it was hard to take it all in. 

Froome was attacked by a fan, Bardet attacked again, Landa came back to them, then it came to a sprint up the hill. Dumoulin skipped a gear he said and started from the back, and instead of leading out Froome like the ITV commentators thought he would, Thomas just sprinted with all his might and took his second mountain top stage win in a row. In doing so he became only the third person in history to land two mountain top finishes in a row in the TDF.. 

The race is wide open now, but between three guys it would seem - Thomas has a big lead, but Froome is still the 2.06 favourite to win, with Thomas at 2.6 now and Dumoulin the big dark horse still at 10/1. It's looking good at the moment for us for the top 3 part of the each-way bets, and the way he rode today I am still hopeful he can overthrow the two Sky lads.

Sky are also favourites now for the team prize, they are just 2mins behind Movistar, Movistar were 4/7 two days ago to win it. Guillaume Martin is still hanging in there in the White Jersey competition, with a bit of luck he could still win it. And Demare is in the e/w money at the moment for the Green, fingers crossed he can stay there, and if Sagan doesn't finish he could even win it. 

The bad news tonight though is it looks like Nibali is out of the race after his accident, possible fractured vertebrae, which is really shit. It means though that Roglic is up to 4th and Bardet up to 5th, and in fact with Landa, Quintana and Bardet all pretty close too, this race might not be over yet..  

The Route

This is an interesting looking route in that we could well see any sort of stage outcome today. Of course, the sprinters are favourites to win out, seeing as it is mostly flat, but there are a couple of things that could catch them out today. They set off from Bourg heading east, descending for 29kms, then suddenly hit a little Cat 3 climb, the Côte de Brié, which is a 2.4kms at 6.9%, but it actually carries on climbing for a few kms more after the top of the climb. 

After descending off that it is mostly flat for the next 80kms, bar a little lumpy section which starts after about 100kms and goes on for 10kms or so, and includes the Côte de Sainte-Eulalie-en-Royans (1.5kms at 4.9%). With about 45kms to go, after passing through Saint Nazaire en Royans, the road starts to rise on an uncategorised hill. Now this hill looks to be a bit more of a challenge than is being let on by the fact it isn't categorised, as it looks to be around 6kms long at an average of around 4.2%.. That could see a lot of sprinters under pressure, especially the likes of Marcel Kittel. 

It carries along a bit of a plateau with a few more bumps for about another 13kms before dropping down to Chabeuil with 14kms to go. From there it's mostly flat to the finish, but they need to watch out in the closing kilometres for road furniture. There's a big roundabout with 3.5kms to go, then another with 1700m to go - once out the other side of that the road climbs at 5% for 800m, another little obstacle that could derail some sprinters. The finish is on a wide, straight road after one more roundabout with 400m to go, but it slopes sligtly upwards for the last kilometre, around 1.5%.

And another thing they need to watch out for - there is rain forecast for the afternoon, with about a 32% chance of rain for around the last hour of this stage. Also, there is a south-westerly wind blowing of around 7-9mph in the afternoon, which will be a headwind for most of the day, which will hamper the breakaway. Also, as they turn west with less than 60kms togo it will become a crosswind, which could cause problems to tired bodies. Also, it's the same for the last 25kms on the run to the finish, we could see echelons and splits. There should be a tailwind behind them for the last 2kms at least though, making it a fast finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

After three tough days in the Alps, the peloton will be pleased to have a semi rest-day today, as the roll over a short-ish course towards Valence. The break might make it, they could be let go as there will be a lot of tired bodies after the Alps, and with so many sprinters abandoning today, it’s hard to know who’s going to do the chasing. 

But also, with so many tired bodies, who will want to go in a break for the day?! And with so few sprinters, it means that some of the remaining sprinters will never have such a good opportunity to win a stage! From the break though, if you think the break will make it, it would be a total lottery, but a small dip on Nils Politt, Taylor Phinney, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Maciej Bodnar, Marcus Burghardt or Rheinart Janse Van Rensburg could give you a bit of interest for the day.

I’m more leaning towards a bunch sprint though, but even then it’s not certain that the peloton will contain all of the sprinters, as some could be shelled out if they go full gas up that 4.2% climb with just 30kms left. I just think that with only a few sprints left, FDJ, Bora, Bahrain, UAE, Trek and even Wanty will want to pull the break back and go for it. 

Of the remaining sprinters, Peter Sagan will have no problems with the hills and will be right up there, but it was interesting to me that he was pipped in the sprint in Roubaix by Phil Gil, that shouldn’t happen, and as I’ve been saying for a few days now, Sagan is surely getting tired. He also has a lot of personal issues on his mind at the moment, but it doesn’t seem to have affected him too much so far. And he said after today’s stage that he has never had such a hard day in a race. Slightly puts me off him. 

John Degenkolb must feel like there’s been a 50kg weight taken off his shoulders after his spectacular win for us on Sunday, that has been a long time coming and must have been an enormous relief to him. Will we see him kick on now and get up in the sprints with the best? He hasn’t been far off in the other sprints, top 10 each time, but he won that stage in a sprint from Van Avermaet and Lampaert, not exactly Gaviria and Groenewegen, but he should be right up there in the first 5.

Arnaud Démare has not had a lot of luck in this race, he’s not really been able to land a blow in the sprints. He came home just 15” behind the GC group in Roubaix, just got dropped late on in the stage, but he was also just outside the placings in the sprint on Saturday, finishing 5^th (7^th before the other two were DSQ’ed).

That could be good enough to see him win this now, he shouldn’t have any problems on the hill and could come close. There is an uphill section for almost 1km that ends with just over 500m to go, you’d expect him to be right at the front with his FDJ team, trying to put the other sprinters under pressure.

Sonny Colbrelli has come close a few times, but they were on steeper uphill finishes than this one, he might not be able to get so close, but should be in the top 6. Alexander Kristoff has hung in there over all the climbs, impressive stuff from the big man, but how will his legs feel after what he’s been through? If his legs are ok he should make the sprint and could go close too.

With all the sprinters out, the likes of Edvald Boassen Hagen and Max Richeze will get a chance to sprint on their own now rather than being lead-out men, and EBH could have a chance from a break too if the break does make it.

Andrea Pasqualon, Timothy Dupont, Thomas Boudat, they’ve not really made any impression so far, but interestingly Nikias Arndt was well up there in the top 10 on Saturday, maybe he’s starting to feel good and Sunweb could put the hammer down too to see if they can thin out the sprinters to give him a chance. At a very big price of 33/1 he could be our dark horse outsider. I think though this is a great chance for Démare to finally take his stage win, he was tired after today of course, but then again all of them are. 

Update, 9:30am - spoke with my Secret Pro this morning, he thinks the break might run the sprinters close for the stage and fancies some strong men to be in it.. Nils Politt and Stefan Kung are two he mentioned, so I'm adding 0.3pts on each of them.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Arnaud Démare at 10/3 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Nikias Arndt at 33/1 with Skybet

0.3pts win on Ștefan Kung at 66/1

0.3pts win on Nils Politt at 150/1 (bigger prices are available on betfair..) 

Matchbets:

Kristoff to beat Cort Neilsen and Degenkolb to beat EBH - 2pts at 11/10

Demare to beat Sagan - 2pts at 11/10

Laporte to beat Richeze - 2pts at 11/10