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- Published on Wednesday, 18 July 2018 21:30
TDF 2018 Stage 12
Bourg-St-Maurice / Alpe d'Huez
Thurs 19th July, 175.5kms
The Alpe is back! After a brief hiatus since 2015, they return to take on the famous 21 hairpins again on a savage day in the Alps. The last time the TDF came up the Alpe Thibaut Pinot soloed to victory, can the French win again?
Alpe d'Huez has been used in the Dauphiné just last year of course, when those two famous British climbers Pete Kennaugh and Ben Swift finished 1st and 2nd on the stage, holding on from the break of the day, with Bardet coming home best of the GC men, 1'14" behind Kennaugh, after attacking away from the favourites. Richie Porte and Jakob Fuglsang finished 42" behind him, Contador, Aru, Martin, Valverde and Froome were all over a minute back on Bardet.
In 2015 when Pinot won he was chased home by Nairo Quintana who deperately tried to claw back enough time on Froome to take the overall on the penultimate stage. He did an amazing job to race away from all the other favourites and put 1'20" in to a tired Froome, but it wasn't enough, as Froome held on to win by 1'12". This stage comes a lot earlier this year, but will it give Quintana a chance to try to claw back some time on his GC rivals, seeing as it looks a climb made for the little Colombian?
The Alpe is famous all over the world for its iconic hairpin bends and its incredible atmosphere. Fans from all over the world congregate there for days before the stage, camping up, partying and having a good time. Dutch Corner, Irish Corner, Welsh Corner.. they're all well known now.. But what kind of recpetion will these fans give Froome this year on his way through the narrow corridors? I don't think it'll be as jovial and pleasant as the reception he received in Italy, but let's hope for nothing nasty to happen.. A puncture maybe, but nothing more sinister.. :-)
Stage 11 Review
It was frantic from the off today, with attacks right from the flag, with Sagan going in a group of five with two of our boys Navarro and Barguil with a big chase group following them with De Gendt and Rolland, Alaphilippe, Kung, Pauwels and about another 25 guys including Marc Soler of Movistar.. When the dust settled and the breaks sorted themselves out we had Barguil, Navarro, Herrada, De Gendt and Rolland in the break, and it was looking pretty good.
But Rolland and De Gendt faded pretty early on, Barguil traded to odds on, only to blow up later on, and despite fighting all day, Navarro and Herrada just weren't good enough. Nieve rode away from Barguil and Caruso and looked nailed on for the stage, trading down to below 1/10 to take the stage in-play.
Behind, things were blowing up. Valverde attacked with 54kms to go, and joined Soler who helped him build a nice little gap. Dumoulin attacked on the descent and bridged to Soren Kragh, and between the two of them they suddenly built a lead of over 30". Valverde was caught by Dumoulin, Dumoulin dropped him and behind Sky continued to drive hard at the front, until they were down to just Thomas and Froome.
Then Thomas attacked hard. No one could follow, Dan Martin tried and was joined by Froome and up front Nieve entered the final kilometre with about 20" lead. Dumoulin, Froome, Caruso and Martin chased, and all of a sudden we see pictures of Thomas flying past Nieve to take the stage.
It was a stunning performance by Thomas and Sky once again, and not only that, Chris Froome looked ominously good too, practically toying with the opposition.. Dan Martin said that he was ripping the legs off him, and Dan is going as well as I've seen him go in a Grand Tour for quite a while. A top ten is well within reach now, and a top 3 is possible..
Tom Dumoulin was brilliant today, he took the race by the scruff of the neck and looked at a way to do something different to try to beat Sky. It was just disappointing that he didn't make any time on the Skybots, but he has moved himself in to a great position to take a podium spot now. Nibali, Roglic, Kruijswijk, Landa, Martin and Quintana are the only ones close enough now to win it though I think, forget about the rest.
Small loss on the day, the matchbets saved it from being a bad day, but our boys gave us plenty to get excited about, at one point we had all our picks in the break, but it wasn't to be. Dumoulin moved in to 3rd for us, Guillaume Martin is now 2nd in the Young Riders and Barguil has started his KOM charge.. Three riders missed the cut, we're down to 162 now and Thomas becomes the 4th yellow jersey wearer.. The danger now is that it just passes to Froome and we stay at 5 wearers, we need someone else to take it in between..
The Route
Downhill for the first 28kms, it shold be a furious start to the stage as the breakers try to get away ahead of the first climb of the day. Shortly after Moutiers they turn right and head north-west to the base of the Col de la Madeleine, an ever-popular climb in the Tour, and an absolute monster at 25.3kms long. It's quite a wavy climb though with easy parts and even a flat part in the early stages followed by nasty 9%+ gradients. With 4kms to go to the top, there are 3kms at 9% average, making it a tough finish to the climb for the KOM Pts.
20kms of a desent, a little pop over the spectacular little climb of the lacets de Montvernier (right), first used in the Tour in 2015 and making a welcome return. It isn't the steepest or longest climb in the race, but it's certainly one of the cooler ones.
Once over the top it's down to Saint Jean de Maurienne and the base of the even-longer-than-the-Madeleine climb of the Col de La Croix de Fer, a massive 29kms long, at an average of 5.2%. But once again, that's not a true reflection of the steepness of the climb, as there are steep bits either side of a section in the middle which sees the road descend or ride flat for almost 4kms, then 7kms at only around 4%, and another 2kms at 3% later on. The steep parts are around 9% average though.
This time the descent is almost 30kms long, giving some of those who didn't lose too much time on the climb a chance to get back in before the finale. There's also about 12kms on the flat as they head towards Bourg d'Oisans and the climb to Alpe d'Huez starts with 13.8kms to go.
If you're reading this preview then I probably don't need to tell you much about Alpe d'Huez. Sufficient to say it's 13.8kms at 8.1%, The last 2.8kms average only around 5% though, without that, the average gradient is closer to 9%, with parts hitting 10% and up to 11.5%. It's the hairpins it's famous for of course, all 21 of them..
Map
Profile
Col de la Madeleine
Croix de Fer
Alpe d'Huez
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
I thought that this might be the day that Movistar made their move? I had written some of this before today, thinking that If it is, and Quintana is looking to blow things up on the Alpe, they may need to try to soften Sky up on the earlier climbs, most likely the Croix de Fer. They are going to find it very hard to burn them off on the Alpe if there are still five of the Skybots there, most likely Froome, Thomas, Kwiat, Bernal and Castroviejo, theyll just set an infernal pace again and no one will be able to attack. They need to get rid of Rowe early on so the likes of Castro and Kwiat have to commit sooner than they'd have liked.
Then they go and make that move with Valverde today. He will probably be cooked tomorrow, as will most of the rest of the team, but if he has anything in the legs, then Landa needs to go on the attack. But I think there is no point in going early on the Croix de Fer on the steeper parts, as Sky will grind out a steady rhythm keeping the break at arms length and then put the hammer down on the easier parts from km 15 to 23 where the team time trial will have a lot more speed than a solo rider or small group.
If Mikel Landa does go he will need someone to come with him, but who? Maybe one of the LottoNL boys, they are both looking strong and they might be willing to take a chance sending Roglic up the road and have Kruijswijk try his look on the Alpe later. They seem a bit too conservative to me though, they'll need to break out of the conservative riding habit, they just followed again today.
As for their chances later on on the Alpe, you would think that neither of them are good enough to ride away from the fastest climbers like Froome, Thomas, Martin or Quintana, but the word on the street is that Roglic has planned a precise spot from where to attack tomorrow and is going to go for it.. At 40/1 with Ladbrokes he might be worth an each-way, he might come home in the first 3, or if he's given a bit of rope could make it all the way.
Maybe Dan Martin? He is in superb form, his spirits are very high and he is riding through Irish corner tomorrow which should inspire him. He was very strong today, recovering after the initial surge from Thomas to come flying past the GC group, and only Froome could stay with him. He might attack on the steeper sections with 5-6kms to go, if he gets a gap of about 20-30" he might just hold on. Sky won't see him as a big threat just yet, and he helped Froome today, Froome *might* just let others chase him, and if so, he could make it.
But if it's not looking like it's going to be worth it for him, I think he needs to just get through this stage without losing any time, It looks like he might not be ideally suited to the Alpe he has struggled there in the past. Stay close, then go for it on one of the mountain stages next week, or maybe on the stage in to Mende on Saturday..
Romain Bardet could be one to put it up to Sky too though - he could well get AG2R to try to blow up the Sky train on the Croix de Fer in that steep part from km 6, then attack away himself in the last 3kms or so, go over the top and dive-bomb down to Allemont. He'll need some willing accomplices though, because another thing that might put off potential attackers is that 9kms on the flat before they reach the foot of the Alpe..
It will be ok if the race is in pieces say and Chris Froome is either on his own or with just Thomas maybe, and no one is willing to help them chase, then a small group of rivals might be able to hold a gap at bay until the climb. If Froome and Thomas have had to dig deep on the chase, then maybe they will crack on the Alpe, we've seen Froome struggle up here before.
But he will desperately want to win on the Alpe and drag himself back in to contention, that was a disappointing ride from him today. He said after that his legs are really good and he was feeling really good, but that he hesitated when Martin went, he made the wrong decision and he was unable to bridge then. Bardet has the climbing power to ride to victory and we all know how big winning on the Alpe is to the French, he'll want to match his rival Pinot, who won here in 2015.
In fact, the last three winners up the Alpe have all been French, with Pierre Rolland winning an epic stage in 2011 and Christophe Riblon breaking Tejay Van Garderen's heart, catching him in the closing stages in 2013. First of the GC men home that day? Nairo Quintana in 4th..
One of those accomplices could be Vincenzo Nibali, there are few better than him at descending as we know, and although Froome is a pretty good descender, Thomas isn't the greatest, and they might just strip Froome of team-mates at the very least, might drop him too at best. The shark has been sleeping, it might be time to strike.. We know he likes climbs like this and has the power to grind his way to a stage victory here if he has a small lead.
Having said that, he wasn't great today and he finished over 2 mins down on Froome last time up the Alpe, but circumstances were very different, Froome was chasing for his life to limit Quintana's gains, Nibali was just happy to mark Contador to protect his 4th on GC, he was never going to claw the 3 mins back he needed to take the 3rd spot off of Valverde.
Speaking of Alejandro Valverde, he has gone well here too in the past, he acted as an anchor to Froome when Froome set after Quintana, outsprinting him for 4th place in the end in 2015, he could well have maybe finished better had he attacked, but he was under strict team orders to just disrupt Froome. He burnt a lot of matches today, but we know what he's like and maybe Valverde could go again on the Croix de Fer, so they can counter punch later on with Quintana.
Tom Dumoulin was awesome today, aided in no small part by Soren Kragh who dropped back from the break. Maybe they'll try something like that again tomorrow, sending someone in the break to help Tom if he attacks off the Croix de Fer? If he can get someone with him, and then time trials through the valley he might pick up stragglers from the break again that could help him. If he reaches the Alpe with a minute or so lead he might just hang on.
Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Bauke Mollema and Rafal Majka struggled today, Majka might fancy a day in the break instead, but he doesn't have great legs at the moment it would seem. And speaking of the break, they have a chance of making it tomorrow, Sky don't need to force the pace now, they are firmly in control of the GC now, it's up to the others to do the driving.
So a few darts for the break - Warren Barguil might go again to take the HC points on the Madeleine and the Croix de Fer, if they have a big enough gap, he has a chance at the stage, but he might be too fatigued to win. Serge Pauwels, Thomas de Gendt and Julian Alaphilippe will also be interested in the KOM points too I think, but I'm not sure about them for the stage win.
Instead, the guys I want to have a punt on are Lilian Calmejane, as he's French and had a little dig a few days ago (but rested today) and he's a monstrous 200/1 with 365. Another is Daniel Martinez, he seems to be riding better (was 21st today) and might have the freedom now to go and attack with Uran out of the game. And finally, Jelle Venendert - in that stage of the Dauphiné last year that Pete Kennaugh won, Vanendert finished 4th, so he can go well up here. At 150/1 he might give us a run for our money if he is the Lotto man in the break tomorrow.
But it looks like this could be Froome's stage to take, he was just so strong today and it could be that he goes hard and the others just won't be able to follow. The only danger is that the final kilometre isn't that sleep and he might be reeled in by the likes of Dumoulin time trialling up to him. I managed to get 3/1 on Froome on Betfair early tonight when the market opened, but I'd still take down to 2/1 on him.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Chris Froome at 5/2 on Betfair
0.25pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 150/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power
0.25pts each-way on Lilian Calmejane at 200/1 with Bet365 (take down to 100/1)
0.25pts each-way on Daniel Martinez at 66/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on Primoz Roglic at 40/1 with Ladbrokes
Matchbets
Froome to beat Thomas and Bardet to beat Nibali - 2pts at 11/8
Add Kruijswijk to beat Landa to make it a treble at 2.7/1
Caruso to beat Nieve - 2pts at 11/10 (Nieve might be asked to look after Yates tomorrow as he struggled today, Caruso has been climbing well and might go well tomorrow)