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Published on Tuesday, 17 July 2018 19:10

TDF 2018 Stage 11

Albertville / La Rosière

Wed 18th July, 108.5kms 

A trend we've seen in a number of races recently is for shorter, punchier stages, as the fans want to see lots of attacking action from the gun, not four hours of boring rolling along like we saw a few times in the first week. 

And this one is pretty damn short at just 108.5kms, not much longer than a decent Sunday club run. But boy have they packed in the climbing in to this one, with barely a flat metre of road to be seen over the 108kms. Two HC climbs, a Cat 1 and a Cat 2 sees them climbing for around 63kms of the 108.. 

The climb to La Rosière has been used in the Tour de l'Avenir in the past, in 2015 Gregor Mühlberger was riding to a stage victory when he took a wrong turn and Guillaume Martin nipped in to steal the stage from him. Both of those riders have gone on to start very promising careers in the big leagues of course, and there should be lots more to come from them in the years to come. 

And speaking of riders who have gone on to bigger things, in 2014, Miguel Angel Lopez danced away from them all on the way up to the Rosière, on his way to overall victory in the race. He of course finished 3rd in the Giro this year, one of many Grand Tour podiums I think we might see from him in the years to come. 

And of course this stage is basically a replica of stage 6 of this year's Dauphiné, which was won by Pelle Bilbao, who was part of a very large breakaway that was started by Warren Barguil. He attacked out of the remains of the break within the last 6kms and held on from the GC guys who were led home by Geraint Thomas. Thomas attacked hard and dropped Yates, Martin and Bardet in the run in. 

Bardet had thrown everything at Thomas that day trying to dislodge him, the whole AG2R team put the hammer down on the Cormet Du Roselend, some 43kms from the finish to blow the race to pieces, dropping Nibali, Moscon and Kwiat. Bardet then tried to use his descending skills to drop Thomas on the descent to the bottom of La Rosiere, but to no avail. Will we see Bardet try to drop him on the descent again? Sky looked pretty fast on the descent today. 

Stage 10 Review

It took a while for the break of the day to form, and when it did we got a real mish-mash of 21 riders in it, but strangely, hardly any really decent climbers. Peter Sagan, GVA, Impey and Gilbert were in it, as were Taaramae, Calmejane, Molard, Ion Izaguirre and Guillaume Martin, our White Jersey big hope. Thomas de Gendt looked keen at the start, he tried several times to get in the break, but the next we saw of him was him struggling at the back on the wasy first climb. 

The Sky-led peloton kept them under a close leash at first though, the lead took a while to grow, but eventually it ticked up towards 6 mins as Sky seemed happy to let them go. Alaphilippe attacked near the top of the Gilieres, started to press on on the gravel roads, but eventually sat up and waited for the chasers. He attacked again though, and after a brief skirmish with Rein Taaramae he scooted away to an incredible victory. 

It was an incredible climbing performance from Alaphilippe, a man we've seen implode many a time on big climbs like these, a man supposedly more suited to one day races like Fleche-Wallone and LBL. And it was also an incredible performance by Greg Van Avermaet today. On a day where he was basically resigned to handing over the jersey, he not only kept it, but he extended his lead to 2'22". 

As for the GC guys? Well, Sky rode on the front for 120kms, just keeping everyone in check, it was a terribly boring spectacle from the GC point of view. Froome had a bit of drama with a puncture, but nothing to concern him too much, Uran was the big GC loser though, losing touch near the top of the Colombiere and shipping two and a half minutes. Majka, Mollema, Jungels and Zakarin also lost time. 

Dan Martin was the only one that came out of the GC group with a bit of credit, although his attack on the Colombiere was a bit pointless, at least he stretched his legs and tested himself and the others. And of course he won the sprint in the end as I thought he might, just a shame it was for 7th place and not first. 

That was a real stinker of a day bets wise, undoing a chunk of the big win on Sunday. Dumoulin finished one place behind Froome, Pozzovivo bust the treble, Fuglsang finished 2 places in front of Kruijswijk.. just horrible on all fronts. Hopefully we can get back on track tomorrow.  

The Route

Up, down, up, down, up... they seem to be either ascending or descending in this stage right from the very start, with even an uphill kick in the first few kilometres. It flattens out a little bit from about the 3rd to the 9th kilometre, but from there it starts straight on to the first HC climb of the day, the Montée de Bisanne. 

The Bisanne (right) is a nasty start to the day, officially given as 12.4kms at 8.2% average, but the first 6kms average only 7.2%, whereas the second 6kms averages a tougher 9.2%, with parts that hit 10%. 

17kms of a very twisty descent follows this, down to Beaufort, before the climbing starts again, with the double ascension of the Col du Pré and Cormet de Roselend. The HC Col du Pré is almost the same distance as the Bisanne at 12.6kms, and averages 7.7%, but again, the earlier parts are much easier, with the last 7kms or so of the hill averaging over 9%, hitting over 10% in parts. 

There's a short little descent at the top which takes them on to the false flat before the climb to the Cat 2 Roselend, this one isn't too tough, averaging 6.5% over 5.7kms. From the top there's only 38kms to go, of which 18.5kms are spent descending. 

With 20kms to go they start on the final climb to La Rosiere, although the official distance is given as 17.6%. This is a much easier climb than the two HC brutes they faced earlier, it averages just 5.8%, and the last 4.5kms average closer to 4.5%. There is a 6km section in the middle that averages closer to 8%, with parts hitting over 9%, but generally it's a pretty easy climb, although it does twist and winds its way up the mountain through a lot of hairpin bends.  

Contenders and Favourites

Two HCs inside the first 57kms is sure to get the KOM guys pulses racing, that's a lot of points on offer before you could eventually take your foot off the gas and have an easy last 50kms to save energy. That day in the Dauphiné everyone was on the rollers before the start and the attacks came thick and fast inside the opening 20kms. First a group of 7 got away, led by Warren Barguil, but by kilometre 20 there were some 27 riders in the lead group, including Thomas de Gendt, Jesus Herrada, Rudy Mollard, Pavel Kochetcov, Romain Hardy, Amael Moinard, Thomas Degand and Serge Pauwels. All of these riders are lining up for this stage too. 

Now having had a sighter that day and a good training run on it, I'd expect something similar today. A big break go inside 20kms, they gradually get whittled down, but at the same time pull out a lead of some 6-8 minutes and someone goes solo on the final climb. De Gendt tried today, failed then struggled at the back (possibly bluffing). Mollard, Degand and Pauwels all got in the break so will be tired most likely. 

And Barguil... well it turns out Barguil decided he'd forego his great GC position and lose time deliberately today, he faked it pretty well though, with a half-hearted attack when the break were already some 6 mins up the road, then went out the back door once caught and rolled home 10 mins down. 

Out of that lot above, I'd have to pick Barguil, De Gendt and Herrada, they'd probably be the strongest and smartest guys on a day like this and most likely to want to go after KOM points.. De Gendt either has bad legs, or just bluffed today, Herrada took it easy today and rolled home nearly 11 mins down. 

Now how else could it play out? Well we could see the break go, but the likes of Movistar or AG2R (what's left of them) might try to blow the race up early on the Bisanne or the Col du Pré in an attempt to isolate Froome and Thomas, maybe even just Froome.

Bahrain, UAE and Mitchelton-Scott might be willing to pitch in, they all have an interest in taking Froome out of the game. If that's the case the break's gap could tumble pretty quickly and they could well be caught on the final climb to La Rosiere. They probably would have caught Bilbao with a TDF strength pack chasing. And if the other teams don't do anything again, then Sky are just going to power it along at the front again, I think they will want to bury GVA on the Col du Pré and take the jersey... They will try to strangle it again and not let anyone get up the road. 

Bardet might try if AG2R are able to wrestle control away from Sky for a while and try to put them under pressure, but it will be really hard with just 6 riders. Romain Bardet could go himself on the Col du Pré, or indeed on the descent off it like he tried in the Dauphiné, but will he be able to hold off a charging Sky train with Poels, Kwiat and Rowe at the front? Hard to see it, unless he has about a minute at the bottom.. and that's going to be almost impossible..

Movistar are still nursing Landa back to health, but he finished with the GC group today, pretty impressive seeing as he's so bashed up. He would have been happy with today's almost-rest day. Nairo Quintana is biding his time, but he might try something tomorrow, if not, definitely on Alpe d'Huez on Thursday I think. He needs to start pulling time back sooner rather than later. 

So then it come to who can turn on the gas on the final climb and get away to win solo, or will it come down to a small group of favourites sprinting for the win? Dan Martin and Adam Yates are two who could sprint away, add in Alejandro Valverde if it's a favourites sprint to the top, that 5% uphill sprint is perfect for them. Martin looked particularly sprightly and strong today and he sounded like he was looking forward to the next two days after the stage. Valverde struggled a little today though, he was 20m off the leaders going over the Colombiere.. but he said afterwards it was because he unshipped his chain. 

Geraint Thomas blew them all away though on this finish in the Dauphiné, attacking away hard in the closing kilometres. Bardet tried to go with him but soon gave up the ghost, Thomas pushed on and almost caught Bilbao. Can he do it again? I bet he thought he'd be in the yellow jersey today, but he's probably going to get it tomorrow.. Can he take a stage win too?

I'd like to say that maybe Chris Froome goes full gas a few kms from home, strings them all out, then Thomas comes over the top to slingshot in to a lead that might not be caught.. but do we think Froome will do something like that? I don't think so.. He'll probably be the one attacking away trying to settle that intermal 'leader' question.. 

What about Vincenzo Nibali? I don't think I've really seen him at all in this race, he is doing the ultimate stealth performance so far. Is he waiting for the Pyrenées? It's possible.. But at some point we're sure to see the Shark let loose.. Maybe it will be on the descent off the Roselend, but he'll need well over 30" I think to hold off the chasing pack. He did say today though that the headwind, coupled with Sky's relentless pace made it impossible to attack today.

Tomorrow's stage looks like it will also have a headwind on some of the final climb, on the sections where they head west, which just so happens to be on three straights in the last 6kms as they zig-zag up the hill, including the final 1500m. So it's possible we see more of the same, with the GC guys all stuck together and then sprinting it out. 

Jakob Fuglsang said that he felt ok today, but that it really stung his legs in the last kilometers today, that doesn't bode well for a big attack from him just yet. Tom Dumoulin might fancy an attack, as might Kruijswijk or Roglic, the Lotto Jumbo boys looked good today, but it will be hard for them to get away, unless maybe Roglic can attack on the descent of the Roselend and get a small gap and hold it up the Rosiere. 

So the odds are out now and Barguil is the incredibly short 9/2 favourite for the stage, a lot shorter than I thought he would be, but I guess the whole world saw what he was up to today.. but he's a far bigger 7/1 on Betfair, that's maybe worth taking as he will be definitely be trying you'd have to think. Quintana is too short at 11/1, as is Froome at 12/1, Landa is way too short at 18/1, he's still struggling. 

So Barguil the main pick, Dan Martin again from the GC if they get to the finish together, he may well attack late on or outsprint the rest again and a few bets for the break in case they do make it, with De Gendt a more acceptable price and I'm going to give the Cofidis boys Herrada and Navarro another go, they are sure to go soon in a break and I want to be on them. 

Recommendations

1.5pts on Warren Barguil at 6/1 on Betfair (you might get bigger)

1pt win on Dan Martin at 14/1 on Betfair

0.3pts win on Jesus Herrada at 100/1 with Bet365

0.6pts win on Daniel Navarro at 20/1 with Skybet

0.5pts win on Thomas de Gendt at 33/1 with Bet365

0.6pts win on Pierre Rolland at 28/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Martin to beat Yates and Quintana to beat Landa - 2pts at 1.2/1

Add Rolland to beat Martinez to make a treble - 2pts at 2.4/1 

Kruijswijk to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 11/10