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Published on Monday, 16 July 2018 14:20

TDF 2018 Stage 10

Annecy / Le Grand-Bornand

Tuesday 17th July, 158.5kms 

After the drama of the cobbles on Sunday, the riders face an entirely different challenge today after their rest day, the first real mountains of the race with 158km trip over three Cat 1s and a HC climb. 

This is a relatively short stage at 158kms, but they spend over 38kms of it climbing, over five categorised climbs and even a bit of gravel road thrown in to the mix as well. This has the looks of what could be a spectacular stage, and even though it doesn't end on a mountain-top finish, there could well be some serious repercussions to the GC by the end of the day. 

Back in 2013, we saw the riders also take on the Croix Fry and the Grand Bornand but that time they finished on the Grand Bornand after descending down off the Fry. Rui Costa soloed to the win in the pouring rain from Andreas Kloden, with Jan Bakelants in 3rd and the peloton almost 9 mins behind them. 

Stage 9 Review

Now that was more like it! An incredible race, and an incredible winner for us at an incredible price of 33/1. It was hard to know what was happening out on the roadside about 100kms in to the stage, but one of the first significant bits of news that filtered through to me was Richie Porte had crashed out. I feel really sorry for Richie, second year in a row he's crashed out on stage 9, again, it's a pity we won't see him put it up to Froome over a course which could have seen him go ok. Looks like he might be ready on time to race the Vuelta, which is good.

As for the rest of the race, what a stage.. Ok, there were crashes galore, which no one really wants to see, but it made for an incredible day of drama as Froome crashed, Bardet punctured, Uran crashed, Majka crashed, Landa got dropped.. In the end, Bardet, with the help of multiple cars and TV motorbikes apparently, only lost 7", he'll be happy with that I think. But his team were put through the ringer, as were EF Drapac.

Biggest loser possibly could be Egan Bernal, there was no waiting around for him today, a harsh welcome to the team heirarchy at Sky.. He lost over 16 mins after crashing in to the back of a BMC team car that stopped abruptly, and with it possibly the chance at winning the White Jersey for this year. Pierre Latour is now favourite to win that, but our man Guillaume Martin isn't too far off.

Surprises of the day were Dan Martin, Nairo Quintana and Warren Barguil all finished with the GC group, Dan looked delighted afterwards with that result.

But what about that winning break though - Stuyven set it up for Degenkolb, we didn't see the moment of the attack, but suddenly, out of the dust came Lampaert going like a train with GVA and what the TV caption said was Stuyven... I was disappointed that it was Stuyven and not Dege, but suddenly, while looking at Dege go to evens in play on Betfair, I realised that it must be him up front, which sure enough it was.

The three, three of the strongest men in this sort of race, kept pulling out time, until with about 7kms to go you knew it was between them.. Only danger to Dege was if they jumped him late in the race and he wasn't able to go with them.. But the attack never came, GVA was just riding for time and Lampaert didn't look able to. I wasn't happy when Dege was forced to lead out the sprint, but ecstatic when he crossed the line.

I was delighted for Dege and what he has been through. Delighted for his team, who I know have been saying that he is very strong and the result will come. Delighted that I landed a big winner at a big price, good to get two winners on the board in a row too, it's not been a bad first week at all, we're well ahead after yesterday now. The matchbets weren't great, but thankfully 33/1 will cover that comfortably. Onwards and upwards!

The Route

A fantastic looking route on paper, starting in Annecy and skirting south around the shore of the lake on relatively flat roads for 30kms, through the intermediate sprint after 29kms. There is a small bump of a Cat 4 climb after just 17,5kms, but the Cote de Buffy will be no slayer, it's just 1.5kms at 5.6%. If a break goes early on, we'll either see some sprinters try to get in the break to take the points and drop off, or we'll see the break not go until the sprint has been passed. 

And as the first main climb comes immediately afterwards, that might well be what happens, some teams go for the sprint, other guys power through just after the sprint to try to get away for the climb. The Col de La Croix Fry is a Cat 1 climb that's a pretty tough start to the day, 11.3kms at 7%, followed by a tricky near-20km descent down to the base of the final climb of Le Grand Bornand. But they shoot right past it instead of climbing it, going around in a big clock-wise loop that brings them to the climb from the complete opposite side. 

The Montée du plateau des Glières starts after 62kms, and this one is a real brute - 6kms at 11.2%, with 2kms in the middle that average 12.2% and another kilometre at 12% just before the top. But the challenge of this climb doesn't end there, as they then hit a gravel road for the last 2kms of the climb, although the gradient is much easier. (right)

That's followed by another nasty descent for 14kms, a little uncategorised bump for about 5kms, then about 30kms of getting ready for the final climbs, with a descent followed by about 22kms on false-flat roads, rising gently.

The final double hit of Cat 1 climbs is horrible - the Col de Romme is 8.8kms at 8.9%, with sections over 10%, followed by 2kms of a false flat, a 4km descent and then on to the Col de la Colombiere. This is a little bit shorter at 7.5kms, and a little bit easier at 8.5%, but the last 4.5kms are closer to 9.5% average.

There's only 14kms to go once over the top, 11kms of which are spent descending, before a little section from around 2.5kms to go to 500m to go of almost flat road.. then a slight drag uphill to the finish of around 3%. They finish in Le Grand Bornand, where Dan Martin won in 2013 after escaping with Jacob Fuglsang on the the Col de la Croix Fry, outsprinting the Dane after they held off the chase brilliantly on the descent. 

Contenders and Favourites

After the drama of the cobbles, the race is still most certainly on for the GC. There are still loads of riders in contention, with Geraint Thomas in pole position to take the yellow jersey tomorrow with the first tough climbing stage in the Alps. GVA has fought hard to keep it, taking bonus seconds and even some time yesterday with the gap to the GC men from the break he was in, he now holds a 43" lead over Thomas going in to the first Alpine stage. Is it enough to see him still in yellow tomorrow night? Probably not, he will find it tough, and Sky will be going for it.

There will be a lot of tired bodies out there, even after a rest day, and we might see the first breakaway winner of the race. The GC teams took quite a battering on Sunday, and there are three hard stages to come, it might be that they decide to take one more rest day and let a non-dangerous break take it. They say it takes 3 or 4 days to recover from Roubaix, this could be the same and the favourites might want a truce until the next stage, with possibly just a scrap up the Colombiere to see if they can shake off any weak links.

So then it comes to trying to pick the winner from about 50 potential candidates. They will need to have lots of watts to get away early on as the battle to get in the break will be pretty hot I’d say, they’ll need to be able to climb well with all those mountains to get over, and they’ll need to be able to descend and maybe sprint for the finish.

Also – this is a day when some riders will kick-start their KOM charges, so putting all what I said above about what is needed to win, and someone who will be looking to take an early lead in the KOM competition, it all points to Warren Barguil as a good candidate for the stage.. This looks a perfect stage for him, with loads of KOM points on offer and the chance to win from a reduced sprint (or attack away from on the Colombiere).

He might not get in the break of the day, he's less than 3 mins down on GC, but he might be able to attack away on the Romme or Colombiere later in the stage and catch the break and go past them like he did a few times last year. Sky might be happy enough for him to take the jersey for now as he's not really a danger over all, they'll take it back in the coming days anyway probably.

Another rider who might like this stage is Omar Fraile, he was in the break on Sunday, possibly to try to just test the legs and stay out of trouble in the bunch, as he has bigger plans for the days ahead. He’s a former winner of the KOM competition and he may not be needed to babysit Fuglsang so he might go. He has been riding well lately, he said yesterday after the cobbles that he felt really strong and has the attributes to win this stage, he hasn't a bad sprint on him from a reduced group as we've seen before.

And Thomas de Gendt is likely to go, he also stayed out of trouble in the break in Stage 9, but this is much more to his liking and he’s no stranger to going for KOM points as we know, attacking seems to be his favourite past-time. He's also the kind of guy who will attack on the descent of the Romme to get a little head-start on the Colombiere, and then just grind out the watts to the top, holding his gap.

Egan Bernal lost a lot of time on the cobbles Sunday, and with it possibly his chances of winning the White Jersey, maybe he will switch focus now to stage hunting and the KOM competition? It might depend on how sore he is after the crash, he took quite a beating when he crashed in to the BMC car, he was limping after it.. so I'll leave him for now I think.

And what about BMC – they are sure to have someone go in the break now that Porte is out. Damiano Caruso and Tejay Van Garderen are two guys who could go in the break, they are far enough down now to be given some freedom, Caruso was going very well in the Dauphine and finished 7th on the two key mountain stages, he’s worth a shot at 25/1.

Another who I like for the break is Dani Navarro, he is in good form too, almost won that stage in the Daupiné when he was pipped by Yates with 50m to go, and he's now over 45 mins down, closer to last than first, so no danger.. And he said in an interview after Sunday's stage that he and Jesus Herrada are here to try to win a stage and he will be on the attack - timing the bet might be the hard part, trying to figure out when he goes, but I'm going to back him until he does get in a break I think just in case. 

And as for the GC guys? If they decide tomorrow is not going to be a rest day and go full gas from the start, then the break hasn't a chance over those two final climbs, Sky will look to stretch it out and thin it out on the Romme and then go for it even harder on the Colombiere to try to shake any tired guys out. Chris Froome looked shaky at times on Sunday, but he stayed in there, without the help of Thomas, and finished with the main pack. Will he look to lay down a marker this early in the race, with a descent down to the finish that he will like?

Alejandro Valverde is the 4/1 favourite, and although he seems in good form and would be favourite for a GC group sprint, it’s too short for me. Same with Julian Alaphilippe at 13/2, he may not stay with the GC men if they go hard on that 10% last 3kms of the Colombiere, and I'm not sure he'd be the fastest in a largish group, it will need to be a largish group I think for him to be still in there with a chance. Unless he gets in the break of the day of course, but that's not a certainty at all.

Dan Martin rode brilliantly on the cobbles on Sunday to stay in contention and with the way he attacked on the Mur de Bretagne you’d have to fancy his chances here of getting away. He took a battering on Saturday in the crash, but he did brilliantly to stay in there over the cobbles, something that really surprised and impressed me, I was sure he'd lose a load of time Sunday, so the body can't be that bad. 

He says himself that he has not given up on podium hopes, so he is still confident, he may well give it a go and attack on that 10% section near the top of the Colombiere like he did on the Mur, but it will be hard for him to hold on with that marauding pack just behind, unless they all look at each other to do the chasing and he hangs on..

The stage he won in the Tour in 2013 though was also to Le Grand Bornand, that day they descended off the Croix Fry, basically the opposite side of the valley to the Colombiere, so a very similar finish. He could well try to replicate that win and may be let have a little freedom as he is almost 3 mins down.

If Vincenzo Nibali is the one who can attack away towards the top of the climb then he could well hang on down the descent given his descending skills. But what’s his condition like? We’ll soon find out, but I’m not taking a risk on it.. We all thought he would go for it on the cobbles, he had talked it up, but he never really made a move.

Adam Yates is also back in his natural habitat now, and he must be very pleased with where he sits on rest day 1. 9th overall and on the same time as Froome and Landa, he'd have taken that a week ago. The team have been great around him, keeping him out of trouble so far, and Matthew Hayman showed what a valuable guy he was for a stage like Sunday's guiding him through the carnage with aplomb. He too could be one to go on the attack late on, he might even try to get away with Martin. 

Tom Dumoulin is talking fighting talk all week, and he was disappointed that he wasn't able to make a difference yesterday, he said the was feeling really good, but couldn't make it count versus the other GC guys. He tried, he attacked a few times, one time even had Sagan for company, but the headwind and the lack of cooperation with the other GC guys made it very hard.

But he says he's feeling very strong, and he looks like he wants to give Froome a race here, will he go on the offensive already? I wouldn't be surprised, they know how Froome improved in the Giro in the third week, he'll need to try to take advantage of any weaknesses as soon as possible. 

Primoz Roglic could go well too, as could Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Latour, Geraint Thomas, Guillaume Martin and Jakob Fuglsang, but I'm not sure how Rigo Uran and Mikel Landa will do after their crashes Sunday. The first day in the Alps after a rest day after a hectic opening week could produce some mixed performances, so we’ll just dip our toe in with a few bets to get the second week started.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Thomas de Gendt at 14/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Warren Barguil at 14/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Daniel Navarro at 28/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Damiano Caruso at 25/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 14/1 with Skybet

Matchbets

Yates to beat Mollema, Thomas to beat Uran and Pozzovivo to beat Bernal - 2pts at 11/4

Fuglsang to beat Kruijswijk and Quintana to beat Landa - 3pts at 11/10

Dumoulin to beat Froome - 2pts at 11/10

Added at 10:25am: Fuglsang to beat Roglic - 2pts at 4/5 with Skybet - Fuglsang should beat him, Roglic could be dropped on the Colombiere..

Also- adding a lay of Latour for the White Jersey at 1.6, with only 6 men left in the team he might be made sacrifice himself for Bardet.. Lay 5pts to lose 3pts.