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Published on Thursday, 28 June 2018 15:13

Tour de France 2018 

Froome to huff and puff and blow them all away?

After an extraordinary Giro d'Italia we move on to the big one, the Grand Boucle, the Tour de France.. Can the Tour top the drama of the Giro? 

Will we see someone do a Simon Yates and trade to 1/5 to win, only to collapse within sight of the finish line? Will we see someone like Tom Dumoulin go from 1/4 favourite in play in the middle of the 19th stage, to losing the race within a matter of hours? Will we see someone doing a Chris Froome, looking like a bag of spanners for two weeks and then riding away from the peloton for an 80kms Floyd Landis-style solo win to take the race? Will we see the 21 stages won by just 13 riders, with three riders taking 10 of the 21 stages between them?

Who knows! The Giro was a nightmare to punt on and I'm not the only one who thinks this judging by the wailing and gnashing of teeth daily on Twitter. No breaks really worked out, sprints were all over the place and a lot of favourites won. Then you have things like Adam Yates gifting the stage to Chaves (hard luck to those on Chaves for the stage win) and Froome rising like a Phoenix from the ashes to win stages and the race overall after hitting 130 on Betfair, and it was quite simply one of the most difficult and frustrating races to bet on in a long time. 

But we soldier on - the Tour will be better, right?! Well, it might, it might not - we have a very strange and varied route and a field bursting with talent, from a plethora of top-class sprinters who are going to be fighting it out on the many sprinter-friendly stages, to the puncheurs who will like a few of the stages, and even a cobbled one in Roubaix.

A TTT on only stage 3 and a whole load of tough mountain stages as well for the climbers, but only 3 summit finishes. It even features a bizarre, F1 style start on stage 17 with the GC leaders starting first, covering a distance of only 65kms, or little over 2 hours for these guys.  

There may be the 35km TTT on stage 3 for the GC men to look forward to / dread, depending on what team you are in, but with the ITT on stage 20 being only 31kms long, it's the shortest amount of individual time trialling in the race's history. But will the race be still in the balance going in to that penultimate stage in Espelette? 

The ASO are doing their best to prevent Froome from starting the race, with Le Monde reporting on Sunday morning that they were going to try to prevent Froome from starting the Tour, saying that it was bad for the image of the race, Sky are appealling on Tuesday. So even this weekend, after putting a lot of work in to trying to work out who might win the race, we still don't even know if Froome is going to be on the start line in 6 days time. 

The 2018 Route

The 105th edition of the Tour de France goes back to a more traditional start in France after a start in Germany last year, as they hit the ground running with a sprint stage to open the race. It could mean we see three different riders in yellow in the opening three stages if we get two different sprint winners and then the TT'ers will take over. 

It's an 'interesting' route this year, a far cry from the 'boring' route I found myself writing about this time last year. The opening nine stages before the first rest day are a liquorice all-sorts with a whole range of different stage types. Stages 1 and 2 are two for the sprinters, stage 3 is a team time trial over 35kms that will make the first major separation between the GC favourites and stage 4 is another for the sprinters, but could be shaken up by coastal winds. 

Stage 5 is an intersting looking stage that looks like something from a northern classic, with 150kms of hill after hill after hill and an uphill finish in Quimper. Stage 6 finishes up the tough hill of the Mur de Bretagne, where Alexis Vuillermoz won in 2015, and stage 7 is yet another one for the fast men, a flat and boring stage. 

Stage 8 could be one for the breakaway men, it gets a bit lumpy in the middle, but we could see yet another sprint at the end of it in Amiens. Stage 9 (below) is the one that we're all waiting for though, a short stage at just 156kms, but it takes them over 21.7kms of cobbles on the way to a finish in Roubaix. We saw the impact the pavé had on the race in 2014 when Vincenzo Nibali charged over the cobbles with Jacob Fuglsang and left his GC rivals floundering behind him.

It has seen the GC favourites do recon after recon of the stage, practising and racing over the cobbles, and has seen teams alter their team selection so as to give their GC men some strong rouleurs to look after them on this stage. It should be a brilliant spectacle, all the more so if it rains like it did in 2014. 

After the rest day they head straight in to the mountains, with a tough stage 10 that includes 2kms on gravel at the top of the Plateau de Glieres and a final double climb up the Col de Romme and Col de la Colombiere. But with a 12km descent down the other side to the finish, it could be the best descender of the leading group who comes out on top.  

Stage 11 is a short 108km stage through the Alps, but is a really hard one with two HC climbs and a Cat 1 finish to the ski resort of La Rosiere. It's basically a replica of stage 6 of the Criterium du Dauphiné this year, won by Pelle Bilbao of Astana from Thomas and Martin, after he attacked away from the break he was in with around 8kms left to run (below).

Stage 12 is yet another iconic one in this year's Tour, with a return to Alpe d'Huez, but the finish on the famous mountain is preceeded by a route that includes the 25km climb of the Col de la Madeleine and the 29km climb to the Col de la Croix de Fer, a real leg-breaker day.  

Stage 13 brings some respite with a mostly flat stage that should end in a sprint, but the respite is short-lived as stage 14 takes them back in to the hills with a tough stage to Mende, finishing with that 10% climb to the airport in Mende, where Steve Cummings famously mugged Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet in 2015 (below).

Stage 15 is a lumpy, wavy route that takes them closer to the Pyrenées, and looks like one for the break, but the Cat 1 Pic de Nore 40kms from the finish will test them. Stage 16 takes them briefly in to Spain before they go over the Col du Portillon and dive down to Bagneres du Luchon, scene of the famous descent attack by Chris Froome in 2016, will they let him do it again, or will someone like Nibali get the jump this time? 

Stage 17 is going to be either bonkers or brilliant, or maybe a bit of both. The stage is just 65kms long - probably only about 2hrs and 15 mins riding for these guys. But it includes two Cat 1s and a HC climb, and is climbing for 37kms of the 65kms. And not only is the short distance unusual, being the shortest road stage in over 30 years, but the ASO have decided to add another twist to the stage.

The first 10 on the GC line up in a front row, the next 10 on the GC behind them. Then the rest of the riders are bunched in to groups of 20 depending on where they sit on the GC behind them, and their departure is going to be staggered. So the choice for the GC men is to either go straight from the gun and maybe not allow other team's support riders to get up to their team leaders, or to sit up and wait to have some team support..

Movistar are sure to have several in the top 20, as might Sky, but the likes of UAE for Dan Martin, Bahrain Merida for Nibali and Sunweb for Tom Dumoulin might struggle to have support riders anywhere near if the race goes from the flag. 

Stage 18 is a random sprint stage thrown in to the middle of the Pyrenéean stages to give the GC men one last rest day before the final two challenges. Stage 19 is an absolute beast with the Col d'Aspin, Col du Tourmalet and Col d'Aubisque coming one after the other on a long stage of 200kms. Stage 20 is the hilly ITT to Espelette which should see some reshaping of the top 10, but will it give us a new leader on the penultimate stage? And stage 21 is of course the processional parade around Paris with the sprint on the Champs Élysées, where Dylan Groenewegen will be hoping to make it two wins there in a row. 

Main Contenders

Where do you even start with this race?! It's been an absolute mess of a market for the last 7 or 8 months, with Froome's failed test causing consternation. A lot of bookies took it upon themselves (or should I say Bet365 probably did it first and the rest copied as usual) to create a 'without Froome' market, and Richie Porte has headed that market all winter. Froome traded out to 16/1 on Betfair to win it on the outright market and Porte traded in to around 3/1.. 

Then Chris Froome was back in the running, ignoring all calls for him not to race while he is under investigation for the failed test, and only goes and comes from a mile back to win the Giro. He was 130 on Betfair a few days before to pull off the miracle, and even on the day was still 10/1 and bigger to win even when on the attack. 

He is now favourite again to win the Tour, as short as 7/4 in places, but still around 5/2 on Betfair (well he was until the ASO news on Sunday morning, when he drifted to 4/1). He will have a massively powerful squad with him, but the route will be both for and against his chances, with a TTT to help him build a lead on his rivals, an ITT for him to gain time on the climbers and lots of tough mountain stages that Sky will dominate and he will do well on.

But watch out for stages like the cobbled one to Roubaix and the stage to Alpe d'Huez, where Quintana could take time out of him like two years ago. 

And he has a whole load of potential challengers this year, in what on paper could be one of the most open races in years. Richie Porte is in good form and will put up a serious challenge to him in the mountains and the ITT, and BMC will do well of course in the TTT. Movistar have a three-pronged attack where their only problem might be the fact that they have a three-pronged attack and maybe not focusing on one rider.

That rider should probably be Nairo Quintana based on his performance in the Tour de Suisse, but they also have Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde who should also go well. And not forgetting they have Marc Soler too, winner of Paris Nice. Watch out for them on stage 17 with the staggered start, I expect three of them could be in the first group that go and could cause havoc. 

Rigoberto Uran was a surprise 2nd place in the race last year, despite being on his own for most of the race, and he comes to the Tour on the back of a good stage win in Slovenia and 2nd overall. It's been a pretty quiet year for him so far though, is he going to be able to repeat his heroics from last year? He'll need to be in a good position before the first rest day if he is to have a chance. 

Romain Bardet is back to try to improve on his 3rd from last year (and 2nd in 2016) and is riding well, Tom Dumoulin has declared himself ready to take on the Tour and says he's never felt so good in the weeks after a Grand Tour and he's going there to win. Vincenzo Nibali hasn't shown much this year, but we know how he can deliver when it comes to the main event.

Sky have a back-up option should anything happen to Froome, with Geraint Thomas chomping at the bit to be given a chance to lead the team here after winning the Critérium du Dauphiné, he's also finished 2nd in the Algarve and 3rd in Tirreno Adriatico this year and has never looked leaner.

Jacob Fuglsang (left) pulled out of last year's race on stage 13, but had been in 5th place overall on stage 11.. He's had an excellent year so far with 4th in Valenciana, 3rd in Catalunya, 4th in Romandie (and a stage win) and 2nd in the Tour de Suisse, after getting closest to a rampaging Quintana on Arosa. 

Dan Martin won his first race since March 2016 when winning impressively in the Critérium du Dauphiné, also taking a 2nd and 3rd place on his way to 4th overall. His team will be his achilles heel, as will the ITT, but watch him on some of the punchy finishes like up the Mur de Bretagne. 

Primoz Roglic, Adam Yates, Steven Kruijswijk, Ilnur Zakarin and maybe even Egan Bernal could all have a say in this race, they come here in good form and ready to do battle.. As for who's going to win it? Well, I'm going to think a little bit longer about that, a full preview will be ready for subscribers in the week before the race starts. 

The Green Jersey is going to be an intersting contest too this year, will Peter Sagan manage the regain his jersey after being booted out last year, or will Matthews retain it after taking advantage of Sagan's expulsion? Can Groenewegen, Gaviria, Demare or the like take it off him? There are lots of stages for sprinters, we could see the points shared around this year, but it does look like a sprinter will take it. 

So lots to ponder still, it's going to hopefully be a classic, it has a lot to live up to after the amazing Giro we've just had. It's an unusual, brave route by the organisers and the race could be won or lost on several stages, right from the start of the race. 

I've gone something special lined up for my Tour previews too by the way, a 'Secret Pro' who rides for a World Tour team is going to be sharing his thoughts with me during the race, I'll be adding some of his words of wisdom to my previews. 

Not only that, we are delighted to have teamed up with our friends at Niccolò P. for a giveaway of two luxury polo shirts worth £110  - visit the competition page here to find out how to enter!

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