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Published on Wednesday, 04 July 2018 13:10

TDF 2018 Other Markets

A selection of other bets to think about!

My usual look at the weird and wonderful world of the other markets to bet on in the Tour de France. For once, there is a wide selection of bets to look at and there is often value to be found, if you dig around a little.

Generally though they don't offer a great deal of value, as the bookies are really venturing into unchartered territory, most of them are uncomfortable with just offering a market on all the runners in a race with less than a 150% over-round, others just don't bother getting involved at all or limit bets to ridiculously low stakes. So to try to help I've gone through some of the many markets on offer and picked out some bets that interest me, from some solid looking bets to the weird and wacky.

To win a stage / Not win a stage

Arnaud Démare to win a stage - 2pts at 5/6.. I think he's capable of taking a stage win, he's got the power and speed to be top three in most of the sprints, he may just land one. 

Chris Froome to NOT win a stage - 3pts at 8/11.. I am not sure the course perfectly suits a stage win for Froome, there are too many finishes after descents and two of the summit finishes come on the really short stages, where I'm not sure he'll be winning. He could take the final TT, but other than that I think he has only one or two shots at winning a stage and I am not sure he'll do it. 

Dylan Groenewegen to win two stages or more - 2pts at 5/6.. I think Groenewegen will win at least one in the opening week, he could win in Paris again and he could even win in Pau when some of the other sprinters might have gone home. 

Julian Alaphilippe to win less than two stages - 4pts at 8/15.. I can see him maybe winning one stage, but two might be a stretch I think. And anyway, on the stages that I think he might go well, we can probably hedge a little at prices of around 10/1 maybe.. 

Marcel Kittel to win a stage - 3pts at 8/11.. Kittel at 8/11 to win a stage, with so many sprint stages in the race? Sounds like a crazy price.. He may not have been in the best of form up until now, but he will click and I think has around a 1/3 chance of winning a stage, so 8/11 looks a good bet. And while we're at it, I'm having 1pt on him winning 2 stages or more at 2/1. 

King of the Mountains Matchbets

Omar Fraile to beat Pierre Rolland - 2pts at 5/4.. I think Fraile will be on the attack a lot and is also capable of staying with the GC men on the big climbs, I've a feeling that Rolland might be tasked with looking after Dani Martinez.. 

Rigoberto Uran to beat Geraint Thomas - 3pts at 8/11.. I just think Uran will be winning points consistently throughout this race, something I can't say for certainty about Thomas. 

Dan Martin to beat Alejandro Valverde.. 3pts at 5/6.. I think Dan has unfinished business with this race after that horrible crash with Porte last year. I think he'll be on the attack a lot, and he'll be in the top group over most of the climbs too you'd think. I'm not sure Valverde will, so in a coin toss with Bet365, I think Martin offers the better value. 

Points Competition Matchbets

Really struggling to find any value in these, most are priced very short for the ones I fancy and as of yet, Bet365 have not enabled multiples so we can't even double or treble them up to get a bit of a price. Nibali Vs Bardet is going to be tight, reflected in the 5/6 each of them, but I'd lean more towards Bardet, I just think he'll nick more points here and there in the mountains, he'll finish a few places ahead of Nibali in most mountain stages I think, and maybe on the climb to Mende also. 2pts at 5/6

The other one I just about find worth a bet is Magnus Cort Neilsen to beat John Degenkolb at evens.. I think MCN might get up in a number of the tougher stages to contest reduced sprints, he may be in breaks that take points etc. JD might struggle to break in to the top 5 in the sprints, I think he'll be finishing close to MCN on a lot of the sprints, so at evens, I give MCN the nod.. 2pts at evens.  

Top 10 Finish

Lots of the favourites are too short to me, but Steven Kruijswijk at evens looks ok to me. I think Kruijswijk will be there or thereabouts going in to the final week and he generally tends to get better in the third week of a GT, so I think he will consolidate a solid 7th or 8th place finish. 3pts at evens with Bet365 

And two others at bigger prices I am going to have a go at are my friend Guillaume Martin at 8/1 and Domenico Pozzovivo at 9/1. I've shown my love for Martin in plenty of places already, I think he is capable of a big ride and could sneak in to the top 10 at a good price. 1pt on that at 8/1 with 365

Pozzovivo was fantastic in the Tour, bar that one crazy day when Froome motored off in to the distance, and I think he will go ok on this course.. but maybe it'll be worth waiting until the end of the first week to back that as he could lose a load of time in the TTT and on the way to Roubaix.. 

Overall Head to Heads 

This is a match-bet for the duration of the Tour, who will finish the higher of the two. If just one rider finishes he is declared the winner of the Match-bet, but if neither finish, the bet is void and you get your money back. Here are some that interested me:

Yates to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at evens. I think Yates will take an early advantage of 30" or more over Fuglsang and might even extend that on stages like Mur de Bretagne and Mende. I think he is also capable of putting time in to him on some of the summit finishes too, he'll be battling for more stage wins (and the bonus seconds) than JF I think. 

Geraint Thomas to beat Vincenzo Nibali - ok.. I actually think that Nibali will beat Thomas in the end, but I think with the opening week, the TTT and the cobbles etc, Thomas might actually have a healthy lead over Nibali and we can flip it completely the other way or lay off on Betfair.. I've taken 2pts at 2.4 on Betfair for Thomas, he's 11/10 with the bookies, we might be able to flip that at 6/4 Nibali at the end of the first week or so. 

Bauke Mollema to beat Rafal Majka - I think Mollema will be more consistent, Majka might be stage hunting and KOM jersey hunting. So there will be days when Majka will roll home at his leisure, Mollema will be pushing for a top time on every stage. 3pts at 8/11

Domenico Pozzovivo to beat Mikel Nieve - I think Pozzo will come close to a top 10 here, Nieve will be lower down. Nieve will be working his socks off for Yates, there will be days when he will have to drag him back in to contention maybe and go out like a light, I think Pozzo will be more consistent. 2pts at 7/10 with Hills

If Bet365 open up their multiples I'll add a few more in multiples. 

Number of Yellow Jersey Wearers

I think we could have three yellow jersey wearers in the first three stages, possibly another after Quimper or Mur de Bretagne, another after Roubaix and another after the Alps.. Whether that's the final winner is not certain, so we could be looking at 6 or more wearers.. The only danger is Froome takes it in the TTT and never gives it back.. But I don't think that's going to happen.. So I'm backing over 5.5 wearers at evens with Bet365 - 2pts on that. 

Race Winning Margin 

I landed this bet last year tipping that the winning margin would be under 1'20" at 11/10, and Uran did the business for us, finishing just 54" behind Froome. No odds on this so far, but will add something when it comes out. 

Number of Finishers 

The numbers look really low this year, with the over/under line at 148.5, whereas last year it was 170.5. But of course the peloton has been cut down by 22 riders, hence the difference, Bet365 have just literally taken their usual line and subtracted 22. Now this is an interesting one to ponder, because the whole idea of reducing the number of riders was to try to make pelotons safer, with less riders on the road, and I think on the whole it has been a good move. We didn't seem to see as many crashes as usual in the Giro this year, but we had, guess how many? 149 riders finish it, or 85% of those that started.. bang on 365's number.. 

But what about historically at the tour? Well, over the last 7 years when it has been 198 starters, we've had an average of 164.86 finishers, or 83.3%. Taking that percent to the 176 starters this year we should be looking at 146.6 finishers. That is already under the market price.. now if you go back 30 years, when the race moves up and down from between 176 riders and 198, we get an average of 191 starters, 146 finishers, or 76.5%. 

76.5% of 176 is 134 riders.. could it be as low as this? It's possible.. probably not this low, but I definitely think there's a good chance of low finishers. The opening week will be chaotic and dangerous with lots of sprints on small roads. Roubaix will probably see to a few more poor souls, and then there's the final week.. With those brutal mountain stages to finish the race, a lot might get off before they head to the Pyrenées.. Sprinters on their last legs might just try to hang in for that random sprint in Pau before jacking it in.. So I think we could slide under the 148.5, I'm thinking maybe 144 finishers or so, so the 5/6 on unders is a bet for me. 4pts on that at 5/6 with 365

I'll add more if more markets come out in the next few days that catch my attention. If you want me to look at any other markets in the meantime, or want an opinion on a bet, drop me a tweet or email.