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Published on Tuesday, 03 July 2018 16:50

King of the Mountains Preview

Last year's KOM battle was pretty much done and dusted early on, Warren Barguil took a bunch of points on stage 9 to Foix when he was in the break all day, and he never looked back.

Barguil was brilliant last year, on the attack a lot, chasing down Darwin Atapuma to take a sensational victory on the stage to Izoard late on, just reward for the heartbreak of stage 9 to Chambery when he thought he had won the sprint, only for Uran to have beaten him on the lunge for the line. His closest rival, Primoz Roglic ended up with less than half the points of Barguil, with Thomas de Gendt in 3rd.

This is always a very difficult market to bet on - you pretty much have no clue who is targeting the jersey at the start and it could be any of about 20 or 30 guys who could have designs on it, and sometimes someone can decide to switch targets mid-race when their GC plans go up in smoke.

It could be decided by a stage or two when a breakaway rider like Barguil mops up loads of points and then does what he can to defend it over the remaining stages. Stages 10,11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 19 are the stages with all the climbs, and are the key stages for the breakaway types to target for KOM ambitions, with lots of points available out on the road. 

There are 20pts on offer for the first over a HC climb, 10 for first over a Cat 1 climb and 5pts for a Cat 2. But there is a big point to note this year with regards the Pyrenéean stages - t here are double points for the first over the final climbs in the Pyrenées, namely the Portillon, Portet and Aubisque (16,17 and 19), and not just for the Souvenir Henri Desgrange as in previous years. 

So we could also see a GC man like Landa or Quintana racking up point after point while taking stage victories, or even just finishing first on those big final climbs before the descents to the finish, there are several stages like that. But this year's route doesn't have very many summit finishes at all, so again, it's more likely to be won out on the road than at the finish. 

Rafal Majka won this in a canter in 2016, beating Thomas de Gendt by 79pts, with  Pantano back in 3rd, Majka's second time winning it in three years. in 2016, Quintana, Froome, Contador, Rolland and Aru were the first five in the betting, and the highest placed finisher of those was Froome in 18th place with just 22pts!!! Nairo Quintana, the 11/2 favourite scored a paltry 13pts during the race. Majka was something like 33/1 to take it and was pretty friendless...  

This year's competition looks difficult as always to call, the key stages could see a lot of points hoovered up by breakaway riders, and we could see the points very well spread around. But with only three summit finishes in the race, and the three double-points finishing climbs in the Pyrenées likely to be taken by one of the GC men, the summit finish points are likely to be taken by one of the GC favourites this year.. but will it be enough to take the jersey? Landa sits in second place in the betting, with Yates and Quintana in 4th and 5th spot in the betting at 14/1, so the bookies aren't ruling it out. 

The Contenders 

Warren Barguil - 11/4

Stylish winner of this jersey last year, he took the bull by the horns early on and took a lead that he never looked like losing. He took key points on key stages, and wrapped it up with the double points on the Souvenir Henri Desgranges, he was one of those riders who had a fixed plan for this race and went all guns blazing for it. 

He also managed a top 10 place in the GC, such was his high level at the Tour, he finished just 9'25" back on Froome. Probably recognising that he wouldn't get much chance to do his own thing this year he jumped ship from Sunweb in the off season, to join Pro Conti team Fortuneo Samsic. The results haven't been great this year though, and he was well off the pace in the Dauphiné, but he did show better legs in the French nationals to take 7th place. 

But if you look at his results last year, they were quite similar, he actually did better in the Dauphiné this year. His season seems to revolve completely around getting it right in July for the Tour, and he looks to be on track for it again. Stage 10 is probably where we'll see him start his assault on the jersey, the Croix Fry and the Montee de Plateau de Glieres offer 30pts out on the road early on, and if the break hangs on that he'll probably be in, then there are two more Cat 1s before the finish that he could mop up. That's a 50pt day which could have a massive impact on the outcome of this competition. 

Stage 11 should see him try to get in the early break to take the 20pts on offer on the HC Montée de Bisanne 26kms in and the Col du Pre and the Roselend offer up another 25pts before possibly the GC men take over for the finale. And stage 12 offers the two HC climbs of the Madeleine and Croix de Fer before he can put his feet up and let the GC men fight out the finish. 

It could well be that he has a pretty big lead coming out of the Alps, but if it's tight, he might be able to wrap it up half way through stage 19, with the Aspin and the Tourmalet coming within 30kms of each other mid-way through the stage. He is a strong favourite in my mind, the only doubts would be his weak team, but he has some decent riders in there like Bouet and Feillu who will be of help getting him up the road, and they may even have another rider with him in some of the breaks, the pro-conti team will be given a bit more rope to get multiple riders in the breaks. He's a short price, but if you can get 7/2 or 4/1 on Betfair, he's worth backing for sure I think. And I may even top up after stage 9 depending on how he has come through that first week. 

Mikel Landa - 9/2 

Landa is part of the tri-star attack from Movistar, and his chances of winning this competition depend on a number of things. Team orders - whether he is told to work for Quintana and forget about attacking and going in breaks; whether Quintana turns up and is in contention on the first rest day; whether Landa is 20 mins down on the first rest day (maybe deliberately); whether Landa just ignores the team orders and just says 'fuck it, vamos'. 

Clearly one of the best climbers in the world, and he's already won the KOM jersey in the Giro, when he put his mind to it he was devastating, a KOM points machine late in the race. And it could be similar here. He might come with a late charge in the final week with those stages in the Pyrenées, but that will depend on if the points had been shared around quite a bit and there's no one with a big lead. 

It might also depend on whether Quintana drops out of the GC reckoning as I said, because then Movistar could go fully rogue and attack relentlessly, day after day. If that's the case, then Landa could be a man on a mission again to take something home for the Movistar team. One to watch and think about on the first rest day, let's see where the land lies then. 

Thomas de Gendt - 11/1 Best Price

Thomas the Tank is amazing, a rider that all fans seem to take a shine too, with his relentless desire to be on the attack and his power that sees him deliver results year after year. He's also no stranger to a KOM challenge, already this year his attacking style has seen him take the jersey in Romandie and in Paris-Nice. He's also finished 3rd in this competition last year and 5th in the Vuelta, his attacking style sees him rack up lots of points out on the road. 

And this race looks perfect for that sort of performance again, there are lots of big points early in stages and his powers of recovery, which often sees him go in the break on consecutive days will be of huge benefit in the Alps stages. He is probably going to be supported by Thomas Marczynski and Tiesj Benoot in some of the break stages and we should see him go for it I think. But will he be good enough to finish in the top 3 here? 11/1 is a bit short to take a chance on I think for now. 

Adam Yates - 14/1

I don't think this is a good value bet at all, as I don't think the KOM will be on Yates' plans for this race, I think he will be racing it to finish in the top 10, possibly even to try to push for a podium spot. I just don't see him going in breaks that will take the big points on the Alps stages and the early climbs in the Pyrenées stages, but if he is in contention, the double points on offer there might go his way, he's good at nipping out and taking a climb from a GC group.

But of course, that could all change depending on how he comes out of the first week, Mitchelton-Scott are good at switching plans and trying to make the best of a bad situation, and suddenly we could see Yates on the attack in the Pyrenées with some team-mates to help him.  

Nairo Quintana - 14/1

Again, this might well depend on where he stands coming in to the Alps - he could well win the Alpe d'Huez stage again, he could well go on the rampage on 10 and 11 too, he could put himself right in the mix for this jersey, without really even trying for the jersey. And if he is in the hunt for the GC, or not, we could see him score a lot of points in the Pyrenées. If he's not, because of misfortune, but is still riding well, he'll fancy some of these last mountain stages. If he's going for the GC he may well lead over the final, big-scoring climbs. 

Rafal Majka - 14/1

Rafal Majka at least is a dual former winner of this race, which probably is the reason he's just 14/1, winning it in 2014 and again in 2016 when riding for Tinkoff. That year, he beat De Gendt by 79pts despite not winning a stage, just picked up the big points when it mattered. Last year he crashed on the descent of the Col de la Biche on stage 9 and abandoned the next day, but his backers were not given much hope before then either, he hadn't scored a single point up until his abandonment. 

He was fancied again for the Vuelta KOM but finished 7th in the KOM there, a long way behind the winner Davide Villella.This season has been pretty good so far for him, he's been very much under the radar, but he has shown some great form in patches. The 2nd to Landa on stage 4 of Tirreno was very impressive, and his 6th overall in California and Slovenia show that his form is coming at just the right time. His 2nd to Bernal on the Gibraltar Road stage was a great ride, he finished ahead of a lot of very good riders that day, including Adam Yates in 3rd. 

He has a super team of rouleurs here with him, but he won't have much support in the mountains, but he doesn't really need it, if he can get in the key breaks he's likely to hoover up a lot of points on some of the key stages. He's a decent each-way shout I think. 

 Daniel Navarro - 22/1

Daniel Navarro is just 22/1 and as of the time of writing on Sunday night he still wasn't named in the Cofidis team.. So a quick look at his chances, just in case he is not going to be riding it.. The highest he has ever finished in a KOM competition was 3rd in this year's Dauphiné, he was 18th in last years' KOM competition in the TDF. I have no idea why he is just 22/1. 

Egan Bernal - 22/1

So what do we see of Bernal? Will he be allowed ride away and take points on the big mountain stages? Or is he going to be tethered to Chris Froome and the Sky train? If he was to cut loose, there is every chance that he could take a stage or two in this race, and is also capable of taking a lot of mountain points if they were to let him loose on the attack in the Alps or the Pyrenées. 

He's had a sensational season and seems to be able to win when he likes in all sorts of races, including an uphill TT in Romandie and two mountain stages in California on his way to overall victory. He is being roundly described as a 'phenomenon' and people talk about him in the same sort of way they talked about Nairo Quintana when he burst on the scene. 

I think there are too many doubts about what his role will be here, it might be worth waiting until the end of stage 10 or 11 to see what's going on and make a decision then. 

Outsiders and longshots

Pierre Rolland, Davide Gaudu, Lillian Calmejane and Omar Fraile are all 25/1, and out of that lot, I'd be on Omar Fraile as he's the best climber of the four of them and is more likely to be in lots of breaks. Primoz Roglic could also go well, he finished 2nd to Barguil last year after all, but I think that he might just focus on the GC this year. He is in great shape and will like this route and he might be in the top 10 coming in to the final TT. He could well move up a few more places in the TT, but that might limit his chances of being able to go after KOM points. 

Serge Pauwels, Nicholas Edet, Robert Gesink, Luis Leon Sanchez and Marc Soler could all score well too, as could the GC men, but I think the GC might share the points around too much and also there are too many points out on the road for me for the GC guys to outdo the break riders. It's also a market that we can rethink on the first rest day before they hit the Alps though, we can reassess who is where and what their chances in the GC are, and whether a pop at the KOM jersey might be more likely for them.. 

One outsider I'd like a little bit of though is Thomas Marczynski, the Lotto Soudal man is ripped and ready for the Tour judging by his tweet showing his legs a few days ago (right).. I think he will be one I'll be backing in a number of stages for the break and on the back of that he might just rack up some KOM points.. at 125/1, he's my fun bet for the KOM.  

But I think Barguil is definitely the man to beat and anything around 4/1 should be backed.. You might even be able to wait until rest day 1 and get a similar price if you don't want to risk backing him before all the tricky opening stages. Majka is another I want to back, his form seems to be coming to a boil at the right time and he knows what it takes to win this competition.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Warren Barguil at 4/1 or better (maybe place 1pt now and wait until a week in to do the other point if you're nervous..)

1pt each-way on Rafal Majka at 14/1

0.2pts each-way on Thomas Marczynski at 125/1 with Bet365