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- Published on Monday, 02 July 2018 22:50
Who'll win the Green Jersey?
There was a major shock in this category last year when the 4/7 pre-race favourite Peter Sagan was unceremoniously booted out of the race after his coming together with Mark Cavendish on stage 4.
The man to take advantage of Sagan's expulsion was 16/1 shot Michael Matthews, who stalked Kittel and went after every point he could, going in breaks, having his team chase down breaks so he could take intermediate sprints etc. It helped of course that the big rivals to the jersey, my 12/1 tip Arnaud Démare and 5/1 tip Marcel Kittel didn't finish the race, Démare incredibly finishing outside the time limit on stage 9 with three other FDJ riders, and Kittel abandoning on stage 17.
It was a major shock to Sagan, it was a major shock to the race, it was a major shock to fans that the commissaires actually threw out a rider of such high standing for what was a debateable infringement. But on the other side was Cavendish, if it was a lesser known rider involved, or maybe Nacer Bouhanni, the jury might have been more forgiving of Sagan.
The points classification is the third oldest of the currently awarded jersey classifications. It was first introduced in the 1953 Tour de France, the first jersey was won by Fritz Schär. The classification was added to attract more participation from the sprinters, as well as to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Tour. Although the best climber of the TDF was first recognised in 1933, the distinctive polka dot jersey was not introduced until 1975 when Lucien Van Impe took it home.
There was a big change two years ago to the way the points were awarded in the Green Jersey competition in what looked like an attempt to make it a more open competition for the other sprinters, and not just Peter Sagan's for the taking again. “We want to give more of a bonus for those who win,” Christian Prudhomme said in 2015 about the change to the points structure, referring to the fact that Sagan strolled to victory in the jersey in 2014 without winning a single stage.
That didn't stop him that year, and in fact he racked up three victories along the way as well, just in case.. They changed it slightly again for 2016, changing the classification of stages and the number of riders who will get points, reducing the flat stages to 15 points winners from 20 last year, and they are sticking to that this year.
They award 50 points to the winner of the flat stages and 30 to the runner-up meaning, the difference from 1st to 2nd is 20 points, compared to just 10 under the old rules. Points for the pure sprint stages are now awarded as follows - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 — compared to what it was previously: 45, 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, so it's most definitely weighted towards the stage winners.
Stage Categories
The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage classification, and again this year they are awarding the same intermediate points for all stages.
For the stages they are calling 'Without particular difficulty' ("sans difficulté particulière"), or in other words, the Flat stages they are awarding points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Flat stage are stages 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 13, 18, 21
For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first fifteen riders: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey, and it was no wonder Matthews went after them in the lumpier stages last year with Kittel out the back door.
For stages they are calling 'Hilly' ("parcours accidenté"): there are points for the first 15 places: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Hilly stage are stages 5, 6, 9, 14, 15, 16
For stages they are calling 'Big Difficulty' ("grande difficulté") or Mountain Stages: there are points for the first 15 home: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. The Mountain stages are stages 10, 11, 12, 17, 19, 20
There are a lot of 'Flat Stages' this year, eight in total, nine if you include the stage to Roubaix, with six of them coming before the first rest day, meaning that a strong sprinter could well be throwing it up to Sagan this year by the end of the first week. Someone like Groenewegen, Matthews, Kittel, Bouhanni or Démare could have taken a number of stages and may well have the jersey on their shoulders, pushing them on to get more at intermediate sprints etc, which again will be very important this year.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan - 1/2 favourite
This is what I wrote last year "This could have been a very short preview, I literally could type "Sagan wins" and be done with it. It's a formality barring an accident. It really is. At odds of 4/7 you're basically betting that there is a 64% chance that he will complete the course, and you'd have to think based on that, he is still value at 4/7... If he stays upright he wins - is there a 36% chance of him getting sick or crashing? I'd say it's probably closer to 10-20%, so his price should possibly be closer to 1/4.."
And that is why there is no such thing as a sure thing!! I think he was probably something like 1/3 by the time he was chucked out, he probably would have gone on to win it, although Michael Matthews would have given him a good run for his money in hindsight.
Sagan was going for a record-equalling sixth green jersey in a row, a record held by Eric Zabel, father of Rick Zabel, but he failed in his attempt last year, but he still can equal the record number of wins if he takes his 6th jersey this year. The way he is riding, it looks likely he'll equal it, and probably will beat it too in the years to come, he is still only 28 after all.
But what about his chances then at a stupid price of 1/2? Well, he hasn't had a great year by Sagan's standards, he's only managed to win 5 races all year.. but one of them was Paris-Roubaix, another was Gent-Wevelgem.. which would put him right up there as a favourite for the Roubaix stage. The course is ok for him, some lumpy stages he'll score points on, and he'll get placed in lots of sprints. He'll also probably get up the road in breaks to take points on days when the other contenders won't be able to.
But 1/2 is a silly price and you'd be a very brave man to take it given that anything can happen like we saw last year. Also, there are a lot of very flat stages in this year's race, which could see a dominant sprinter rack up a lot of 50 pointers, and with 20pts for an intermediate sprint too, a sprinter could pull a long way clear in the first week. Add in the fact that I have a hunch that Sagan might go 'all in' on the Roubaix stage and it might be that he doesn't give it 100% in the sprints up until then. No bet for me at that price.
Fernando Gaviria - 7/2 Best Price
The bookies have made Gaviria his biggest rival on paper for the green jersey, and I did write last year that he looks like Sagan's biggest threat to his Green Jersey dominance in the years to come. If you ignore the facile wins in Colombia and Argentina earlier in the year, he's actually only won three races this year, and two of those were in California, where his only opposition was an out-of-form Ewan and Peter Sagan.
Peter Sagan, Sonny Colbrelli and Arnaud Démare each beat him in to second place on three stages in the Tour de Suisse, and really, to me, if he wants to entertain hopes of winning the Green here, he should have been beating those sorts of guys in a sprint.
The team is all for Gaviria though and he probably will have the best leadout here with Richeze, Terpstra, Alaphilippe, Jungels and Declerq to power him in to position in the last 2kms. I can see him winning a stage or two if they click in to gear, but I fear he won't be consistent enough to justify backing him at such a short price. He is a tough guy though and he has a good chance of making it to Paris, unlike some of the other sprinters here.
Dylan Groenewegen - 8/1 Best Price
Rapidly becoming one of my favourite riders, he left us with a smile on our faces after nailing the final sprint on the Champs Élysées last year with a superb sprint. With 9 wins so far this year, including Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, Groenewegen is the winning-most sprinter in the starting lineup here, only Elia Viviani has won more sprints this year with 13 wins.
He is probably the fastest sprinter at the moment in the peloton, something that a number of sprinters including Bennett and Kittel have admitted recently, but my only worry would be that the team seems to be built around a GC charge with Kruijswijk and Roglic rather than one dedicated to him winning stages like Gaviria's QuickStep. Timo Roosen is an excellent leadout man of course, we've seen his value already this year, but other than Paul Martens, and a very young Antwan Tolhoek, the team is focused on the climbers and GC men.
But that hasn't stopped him before and I don't foresee it being too much of a problem here for him. I think he could win several stages, he may even be close in some of the lumpier stages and I think he could have a big chance of finishing in the top 3 here, possibly even win it.
Marcel Kittel - 12/1 Best Price
Two years ago Kittel was 5/1 second favourite and I warned not to back him as he wouldn't come close to Sagan and may not even finish it. Well, he did finish it, but boy was he a long way behind - Sagan finished 242 points ahead of Kittel, the biggest winning margin he has had in his five wins, and in fact the biggest winning margin in the last 20 years, possibly even ever (didn't have the time or patience to go back any further on PCS!).
Last year he was also 5/1 and I tipped it as a 'back to lay' bet, thinking he would go well, but possibly might not finish it off, well he traded to odds on in the second week as he held a healthy lead, so if you did back him you did ok trading out before he pulled out and Matthews took over.
Who knows what we'll get from Kittel in this race, but we could see him win 3, 4 or 5 stages, or we could see him win nothing. It is a hotch-potch team he has here, with no real focus and Katusha in general have been pretty poor all season. And none more so than Kittel, who has just two wins to his name, in the first and final road stage of Tirreno, but let's face it, he wasn't up against much there.
He was nowhere near in California and he was nowhere near in Slovenia, and he has not really contested a seriously competitive sprint all season.. But this is Kittel we are talking about, one of the greatest sprinters of my lifetime, if he gets a clear run and is in the first 10 coming in to the last 300m his power could just pull him to the front. But I'm doubtful he will be consistent enough to win this, he might not even finish like last year.
Michael Matthews - 12/1 Best Price
I
honestly didn't think Matthews had a chance last year, his form had been so bad and totally dismissed him. But he took advantage of Sagan's expulsion and Kittel's abandonment and really stepped up when it was on for him, taking 8 top ten finishes, including two stage wins. He really went for it with his team, pushing the pace so hard on some of the lumpier stages they disposed of all the other sprinters so he could take the stage win.
Roll on twelve months and it's sort of a similar situation, as Matthews hasn't raced very much - just 27 days in total and 4097kms - and no race wins at all, bar a prologue win in Romandie. Seven top 10s though, including three 2nd places shows that he is getting close, but just hasn't been able to get his nose in front.
The team looks like it's set up to look after Dumoulin and Kelderman, so he might be fighting for himself in a lot of the stage finishes and as far as I'm concerned he isn't as good at fighting for himself as some other sprinters. I don't know if he'll go as well as he did last year, but if you fancy him, he's not a bad price at all.
André Greipel - 33/1 Best Price
Greipel was 9/1 last year, he's 33/1 this year, a reflection of his slide down the sprinting ranks in the last 12 months. I say that, but he has won more races than Marcel Kittel, Cavendish and Démare put together this season, with 5 wins.
Ok, four of those wins were in the Belgium Tour and the Four days of Dunkirk when he was literally the only sprinter in the races, but he also won two stages in the TDU when up against a stronger field.
Three years ago he was 28/1.. That year he only went out and won four stages in total, including two of the first four, yet still finished 66pts behind Sagan who didn't win a single stage! Last year he finished 2nd to Matthews, but was over 140pts behind him, and surprisingly, he didn't win a single stage, the first time he's ever not won a stage in a Grand Tour.
It has sometimes been the case though that Greipel seemed to have lost some of his bottle in the sprints, he didn't seem to want to put himself in too much danger when things got a bit crazy. The sprints in the TDF, especially in the first week are pretty crazy, so he might find himself out of the podium places in some sprints, which won't bode well for his Green ambitions.
Like I wrote last year, I think he's missing something this year, I think the team are missing something this year, and you can't be missing something when it comes to sprints in the TDF.. I think he'll finish 3rd or 4th again, but can he get back on track with winning a stage in every Grand Tour he's entered? He's up against it..
Arnaud Démare - 20/1 Best Price
Last year I fancied Démare to be the one to put it up to Sagan, and he looked like he would be the main benficiary of Sagan's dismissal when he won that stage in Vittel and jumped up behind Kittel.
But he struggled on the first climb of the day on the 181km route to Chambery on stage 9, and despite three team-mates trying to drag his ass over the climbs he missed the time cut and was expelled, along with his three team-mates.
Last year was his third time doing the Tour and before winning his stage last year he had never really come close, 3rd in 2014 was his best result. Would he have beaten Matthews had he stayed in the race? Maybe, maybe not..
In fact, he has only done three Grand Tours ever, It's easy to forget he's only 26 years old. It's not been a stellar year for Démare, he's not raced a whole lot, just 29 days, and has landed 9 top 10 finishes, including two 3rds, two 2nds and two 1sts. One of those wins came in the TDS two weeks ago in front of Gaviria, Kristoff, Sagan and Degenkolb, so it looks like the form is coming.
His team and his whole season seems to be geared around winning stages at this year's Tour, and he probably has his sights on the green jersey too. It's going to be very hard in the first sprints, there's some serious competition, but his form looks to be coming good. Also, he probably fancies himself on some of the lumpier stages, possibly even the Roubaix stage, so he could go well like he did last year. He was just 12/1 last year, he's 20/1 this year and that is just a bit tempting. But I think I'll have just a little nibble on him first and see how he goes in the first sprint, before maybe going in again.
Mark Cavendish - 18/1 Best Price
Last year I couldn't see Cavendish challenging for this jersey, having only just come back from his enforced absence since Milan Sanremo on March 18th. First it was an ankle injury that he suffered from, and then he was diagnosed with Mononucleosis (or glandular fever) at the end of April.
It's been a strange season for Cavendish this year, with just one win to his name all season, despite having ridden more miles than a lot of other sprinters. A lot of those miles were racked up early in the season in the deserts, where he racked up his only win of the season on stage 3 of the Dubai Tour, ahead of Kittel, Bouhanni, Colbrelli, Viviani, Kristoff and Groenewegen.
He then had that bizarre incident in the Abu Dhabi Tour when the lead car, while driving along in the neutral zone, suddenly auto-braked and Cav fell over, and put him out of the race, before the race proper had even started. He DNF'ed then at MSR, unsurprisingly, and it was almost two months before he came back again at the Tour de Yorkshire. Since then he's not had much luck at all, his 2nd place in stage 5 of Adriatica Ionica a few weeks back was the best he's managed, but let's face it, if he hadn't beaten the guys behind him in that sprint he should volunteer to not go to the Tour.
His form looks poor, but he has a superb team with him here that looks like they are going to be going stage hunting - Renshaw, Vermote, Boasson Hagen, Slagter, JVR, they should all be there pulling him in to position in the last kilometre, but can he finish it off? It might be a case of wait and see.. I know some are salivating at 14/1 on him for the first stage, it does look big, but I think I might wait and watch and decide after stage 1.. I've a feeling he'll be 4th or 5th.
And you also have Alexander Kristoff, Sonny Colbrelli, Julian Alaphilippe, Eddie Boss, Thomas de Gendt, Greg Van Avermaet who might get involved in some finishes, but they won't score enough points to take the jersey.
Recommendations:
This time last year, I said Sagan wins, no question, barring an accident. Well, he didn't quite have an accident himself, but he was involved in one, and was disqualified. That was a major shock to his 4/7 backers, no none saw that coming, despite him walking a very thin line sometimes between fair and foul.
I can't back him again this year, it's too short, and I think the sprinters will give him a run for his money this year. Dylan Groenewegen looks an interesting one to me, and I think Démare might go well again this year and might just finish this time. Gaviria is too short and Greipel and Cavendish's form is too questionable for me. So DG is my main bet, and a little nibble on Démare to start with as he's so big at 20/1.
0.5pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 20/1 with Bet365
1pt win on Dylan Groenewegen at 8/1 with Will Hill