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Published on Wednesday, 28 June 2017 00:33

Tour de France Favourites

The main contenders

We have not had a betting market for the winner of the Tour like this in a long time, with basically two favourites. The closest we have had in recent years, I think, was in 2014, when Froome was Evens and Contador was 6/4..  

Last year was close too though, with Froome at 11/8 and Quintana at 2/1, and i n 2015 Froome was 2/1 and Quintana 11/4. But this year we have the unusual situation with Chris Froome being the 11/8 favourite with most bookmakers, but Paddy Power going with Richie Porte as their 5/4 favourite. It's strange to see diverging opinions like that, I guess it's probably swayed by the book they have laid and their liabilities. But as a result, those next in the betting jump up in price, offering potentially some good value if you want to take on the top two in the betting. 

So let's take a look at the favourites for the race then, the outsiders will be covered in this 'Outsiders' article.

Chris Froome - Team Sky - 13/8 Best Price 

Three time winner Chris Froome comes here looking the most vulnerable I have seen him in four years. He normally comes here after a number of key victories in the warm up races, particularly the Criterium du Dauphiné, but he has yet to win a race this year. The closest he has come was 2nd behind Valverde on the climb to Lo Port in Catalunya, but he was 13" back and finished way down in 30th overall.

This was all down to a disastrous day on stage 6 when he and Thomas were dropped with almost 150kms still to go and he lost over 26 minutes on the stage. The alarm bells were ringing there, and it didn't go much better in Romandie, finishing  78th in the opening prologue and a disappointing 9th in the second, longer TT, finishing 38" behind Richie Porte. 

And the recent Dauphiné sent out all sorts of strange signals. He finished 37" behind Porte in the TT again, over the same distance as the final TT in this Tour, he rode ok to finish 2nd in stage 6 to La Motte-Servolex, but then blew up on the final climb of the final stage after getting a head-start on Richie on the final climb thanks to Michal Kwiatkowski burying himself in the valley for him. He lost a whole minute and a half on Porte over that final climb, a worrying sign for him.

So that's all the negative talk, the positives are of course that he is a multiple champion of this race and knows how to get it just right for July. The course should suit him pretty well, we might even see him attack on one of the descents again, as he has a habit of doing now. He has probably got the best squad in the peloton available to him, the best that he will have ridden with all season and they are sure to try to blow it up day after day in the climbs.

He should go ok, but not spectacularly well in the TTs, and he's won to La Planche des Belles Filles before, that stage could well set the tone for the rest of the race. If he wins it, with a dominant ride again, then the others are going to have a hard time taking the jersey off him.. if he struggles, then he could be in big trouble in this race. 

To me he was a ridiculous price 6 months ago at 8/13, and it took them far too long to push him out in price, meaning Richie Porte and others stayed at inflated prices. I think Froome will of course be a different animal to what we've seen so far this year at the Tour, but there's definitely issues there that need to be sorted out. Maybe they need to get a jiffy bag of whatever he needs to the race. He will miss Woet Poels though in the latter stages of this race, looks like they are saving Poels for Froome's attempt at the Vuelta later in the year. 

Richie Porte - BMC

9/4 Best Price (Betfair)

10/1 in January when he was dancing away from everybody on Paracombe on stage 2 of the TDU on his way to an impressive overall victory, now as short as 11/8 favourite with Stan James.

It's been an amazing year so far from Richie and has cycling fans torn between what we are likely to get from the little fella in July. Impressive winner of the TDU with dominant displays on Paracombe and Willunga Hill, winning the overall by an impressive 48". He followed that up with a disaster at the start of Paris Nice, losing 47" on stage one, but that was nothing compared to stage 2 when he was isolated in the cold, wind and rain, got dropped and by the finish had lost over 15 minutes. 

It was a major disaster for BMC as he came in to the race as one of the favourites, but the loss of Michael Schar in a crash on stage 1 was a big blow for them, he was the one charged with looking after Porte in the wind and rain. 10th in the TT wasn't great, but wasn't too bad either, but then he showed what he was capable of with his 3rd on stage 6 and his fantastic stage win on stage 7, beating Contador by 21". He exploded away with 3.3kms to go and very quickly built up a lead of 20" or so over Henao and Contador and flew up the rest of the climb. To finish 11th on the GC after the start he had was testamount to just how well he was going when the road tilted upwards. 

He was superb also in the Tour de Romandie, finishing 2nd, just behind Simon Yates, on the big mountain stage (52" ahead of the main bunch of GC rivals) and 2nd in the TT behind Roglic (38" faster than Chris Froome) to take the overall by 21", with Froome 1'55" behind him in total. 

And then there was the Dauphiné - he should have won, he was clearly the best rider in the race, but he didn't. One bad decision again, one bad moment for a few seconds as they crested the top of the Col de Sarenne and he let the wheels go and suddenly his rivals were gone. In the end, it wasn't Froome who was his nemesis, Porte destroyed him on the final climb, but instead it was Jacob Fuglsang who took the stage and the overall, riding like no one has ever seen before... 

Chris Froome was a major factor in his loss in the race, his attempt to block him in the sprint in stage 6 cost him the stage win and the extra bonus seconds, and it was he was instrumental in ruining his chances on the final day too. But it might just have finally taught Porte that he has no friend in Chris Froome any more and he needs to stop towing him up climbs. I think it might actually have done him more long-term good when it comes to the Tour de France, he needed to toughen up. 

Porte was left livid by the way the other riders ganged up on him and as he put it 'sacrificed their own chances to see me not win". He added "They don't owe me any favours, but I guess it's the old swings and roundabouts. Certainly if I have the chance I'll try and repay that favour down the road somewhere.". And it looks like he has finally started to realise that on the bike, his former 'roomie' is not his mate - "we're good mates, but the Dauphiné has shown that once you're racing there's no favours. Maybe it was the kick in the arse Porte needed to see him take the Tour. He's not getting any younger, and actually would be quite old to take his first TDF at 32, so it may well be now or never for him.

And he'll have his A-Team here with him too - the most powerful team he'll have had riding for him all season. Many criticised Roche for not being there for him when he needed him on the final stage, but it now has emerged that Roche had crashed in to his team car two stages before that and was still feeling the effects. He will be an important lieutant for him here. Alessandro De Marchi, Danilo Wyss, Michael Schar, Damiano Caruso and Amael Moinard are going to be busy boys, but they are all strong, experienced riders who will give their all for him. But if Porte is in the form he was in the Dauphiné in the mountains he may not even need them. 

Nairo Quintana - Movistar - 7/1 Best Price (Various)

Nairo Quintana at 7/1 for a Grand Tour, with Chris Froome seemingly as vulnerable as we have ever seen him? Seems crazy right? He was 2/1 second favourite for this last year. But, he finished 4'21" behind Froome and was no match for him, losing the tactical battle as well as the battle on the road. Even though he was no worse than 7th place from stage 2 onwards he was never really able to strike a blow, never had an attack that stuck, and didn't win a single stage, the closest he came was 5th place on stage 19 to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc.

And in reality, he should have lost by more time than he did, the crash by Porte, Froome and Mollema on Ventoux in to the back of the motorbike probably saved him from losing more time, they were riding away from him at a really fast rate and he was struggling up the climb. He did go on to win the Vuelta though, wearing the leader's jersey on 13 of the 21 stages and being no worse than 10th at any point, and that was on the first stage, after the TTT. 

This year has been mixed for him too.. seemingly lots of successes, with four stage wins and overall wins in Valenciana, Tirreno-Adriatica and Asturias, his powerful stage win on Terminillo securing the win for him from the TTer Rohan Dennis. And then the Giro... what do we make of that performance? Was it just a good warm-up for the Tour, or were there multiple alarm bells ringing there that saw him being pushed out to 7/1 from 5/1? Ok, he nearly won it, he lost it in the final TT to one of the best TTers in the world, but the fact of the matter is he should never have left a rider like Dumoulin in with a chance of taking victory from him on the final stage.

Yes, he won the stage to Blockhaus by 24" to Pinot and Dumoulin and a minute and more to the likes of Nibali and Zakarin, but shoudn't he really be putting more than 24" in to Tom Dumoulin on a climb like that? And on the climb to Oropa, he tried, he attacked, never got really far, like the attack of a lesser-known hopeful. He was reeled in by Dumoulin and subsequently dropped on the run-in, losing 24" in total to him that day (he lost the overall by just 31").

On stage 18 to Ortisei he was unable to go with the likes of Kruijswijk and Mollema, instead staying with Dumoulin. Kruijswijk and Mollema finished 32" ahead of Quintana, who finished on the same time as Dumoulin. He finally managed to shake Dumoulin off on stage 20 to Piancavallo, gaining a minute and 9" on him to put himself in to pink going in to the final TT. But it was too little, too late, like in the Tour last year, and Dumoulin easily beat him by enough to take the Pink Jersey off him right at the death. And when you consider the time lost by Dumoulin on the day of 'dumpgate' he should have been miles clear of Quintana, not a great sign at all for the wee man. 

What kind of Quintana are we going to get here though? Was he only really using the Giro as a warmup and a training spin for the Tour and he knows he'll be tuned up to the max come the Tour? Or was he really going as hard as he could possibly go and will in fact be more fatigued than those who didn't ride the Giro? If he is in good shape though, where can he make up the time on Porte and Froome he will lose in the TT? Maybe stage 12 to Peyregudes or stage 18 to Izoard, I think LPDBF comes too early for him on stage 5, although he should be fitter at the start of the race than if he had come here fresh and hoping to get better as the race goes on.

But there aren't very many good summit finishes for him, and those with a big climb near the end of the stage, but a descent or flat run after the top to the finish line don't really suit him too well. He will lose time in the TTs and if Porte is on a really good day and Quintana rides like he did on some of the Giro mountain stages, he could lose time there too. He does have a superb team with him of course, Valverde will be instrumental in looking after him in the mountains, along with Castroviejo, Sutterlin, Erviti, Herrada, Fernandez and Dani Moreno. Expect to see them riding with one or two men in breaks on crucial stages with downhill or flat sections between or after the final climbs for Quintana to try to bridge to and work with to stay away.

He may well gang up with Porte or Contador in an effort to pressure Froome, he doesn't seem to like him very much. And his coach has this week said that his power numbers are the best he has seen in training, he's a few watts up on where he was going in to last year's race. But that means nothing if he can't deliver in the race or has the balls to attack.. hopefully Nairo will throw caution to the wind and make it an exciting race. 

Alberto Contador - Trek Segafredo

16/1 Best Price (various)

Two Tour de France, two Giros, three Vueltas, four Pais Vasco and two Paris Nice - and those are just the races he was allowed keep after his ban. Normally with a palmares like that, and with a man like Alberto Contador, I'd be writing something along the lines of "you can never write off the Spaniard". 

But I'm thinking about doing it.. to write him off... 16/1? As short as 10/1 with those jokers at BetVictor?? He could be 33/1 and I still wouldn't back him. I honestly can't see how he can beat all, or indeed any of the three listed above, unless for some freak occurance like a crash that takes them all out. 

Ok, he started the season ok with a very unlucky loss to Valverde in Andalucia, going down by just 1", but struggled on Jebel Hafeet in the Abu Dhabi Tour, losing a minute to Costa. He fared very well in Paris Nice though to be fair, surviving the carnage on stage 2 and finishing with the leaders, and his 2nd place on the hilly TT to Mont Brouilly dragged him in to contention. 

His 2nd on the penultimate stage on the Col de Cuillole elevated him to 3rd place and another 2nd on the final stage, behind De la Cruz saw him pick up enough time on Dan Martin to jump up to 2nd place. 2nd again behind Valverde in both Catalunya and Pais Vasco, he must be getting sick of the sight of Valverde's arse. So it was all going swimmingly then, all systems go for the TDF? Not quite.. The Dauphiné would have been a disappointment for him, as he should really be coming to the top of his game around now in order to feature in the TDF. He lost 35" to Porte in the TT and 11" to Valverde, but he did manage to beat Chris Froome, which would have given him a little bit of satisfaction. 

But he was no match for the top guys here when it came to the big mountains, he lost over a minute to Froome/Porte on stage 6, lost a little bit to Porte on stage 7, but managed to beat Froome. But then lost over 3 minutes to Froome/Porte and over 4 minutes to Fuglsang on the final stage, he really petered out quickly on the climb and was no match for Porte as he rocketed past him, Contador giving him a tired 'on you go mate, I can't help you' gesture as he passed. 

Maybe the missing link for him has been Jarlinson Pantano - he has been superb for him whenever they have ridden together and was instrumental in helping him to his 2nd places in Catalunya and Paris-Nice. The team were dealt a blow though on Tuesday when Andre Cardosa was bust for EPO and immediately suspended by the team. He is replaced by Haimar Zubeldia in the team, a weaker replacement I feel than Cardosa. But he will also have Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, Markel Irizar and Michael Gogl looking after him, so maybe I shouldn't write him off just yet, he's bound to try a crazy attack one day that might gain him some time. He can't be as bad as he looked in the final stages of the Dauphiné now can he..  

Jacob Fuglsang - Astana - 16/1 Best Price

Now here's a curious one.. the Dane is the same best price as multiple Grand Tour winner Alberto Contador, and shorter in price than Alejandro Valverde, Romain Bardet and Fabio Aru... What the hell is going on here???  Yes, he won the Dauphiné, but, as well as he rode, I can't help but think that he was gifted the race by Chris Froome. It was a major turn-up for the books to see Fuglsang hang on to take the stage and the overall, but Chris Froome putting Porte in to the barriers on stage 6 allowed Fuglsang to take 10 bonus seconds and Froome and Kwiatkowski's hatchet job on Porte in the valley on stage 7 meant that Porte was unable to catch Fuglsang who had a head start. There is no way I think that Fuglsang would have won had Porte come to that climb in the company of Froome's group.

And now, he is fifth favourite for this race, having finished 52nd last year, 23rd in 2015 and 48th in 2011. Granted, he finished 7th in 2013, which was mainly helped by gaining time on key rivals on stage 9 to Bagneres de Bigorre when he got away with Dan Martin, and on stage 13 in the wind splits when he finished in the front group and made up over 9 mins on the likes of Valverde.

His elevation to the number one in the betting from the Astana squad comes as a result of both his strong rides in the Dauphiné of course, but also with the relatively 'mediocre' performance by his team-mate Fabio Aru in the Dauphiné (I will speak about Aru below..) and I think there is not only a massive over-reaction to that, but also the bookies have some big liabilities on him now as some shrewdies took massive prices on him earlier in the year, from 400/1 to 300/1 to 200/1, 150/1 and all the way down to his current price of 16/1. 

He has won a number of short stage races, including his native Tour of Denmark three times, but besides the 7th place in the Tour he has never broken the top 10 of a Grand Tour in 10 other attempts, his 11th in the Vuelta in 2011 and 12th in the Giro in 2016 the closest he has come. He may look in the top form of his life (the fact he is in contract year may, or may not have something to do with it.......)  but I can't see him breaking in to the top 3 so cannot back him at that price. Yes, 100/1 and upwards was a good price, for if something was to happen to any of those above, but at 16/1 all that premium is gone. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar

22/1 Best Price (Bet365)

Valverde backers were getting stuck in earlier in the year and were rightly pleased with themselves as he won every stage race he entered from February to April. He beat Contador and Pinot in Andalucia, he beat Contador, Van Garderen, Martin and Kruijswijk in Catalunya (and Froome, way down in 30th) and beat Contador and Ion Izagirre in Pais Vasco. 

But then he went to the Dauphiné, and was just a little bit disappointing.. Ok, he hadn't raced in 6 weeks since LBL, and maybe he just needed the race to sharpen him up before another hard week of training and then a taper-down to the start on July 1st. He did a great TT to finish in 3rd, 13" ahead of Froome, but was 24" behind Porte. He was dropped though on the road to La Motte Servolex on stage 6 and lost 50" to Froome and Porte, and was also dropped on the climb to Alpe d'Huez, with Porte putting 24" in to him by the finish. 

But then on the final stage to Plateau de Solaison he suffered badly and lost a considerable 3'30" to the stage winner Jaocb Fuglsang, but he was also caught and passed like he was going backwards by Riche Porte, who put 2'15" in to him by the finish, or roughly three and a half minutes on him over the 9kms of the final climb. He looked haggard and shattered to me that day, not the kind of look you'd expect of a guy who wants to be challenging in the TDF. 

And of course, there's the situation with Nairo - is Valverde going to be riding in support of Nairo, or will he be asked to race his own race and go stage hunting and possibly GC hunting? Hard to know, but we'll probably get a fair idea on stage 5 to La Planche des Belles Filles, he might be sent up the road as an early attacker, or he may sit in and wait and try to outsprint them. But if he climbs like he did at the Dauphiné, he will not be there at the front of the race when it comes to sprint time. 

He's a hard one to work out then based on the Dauphiné, we know what he's like, he'll do whatever it takes to come to the Tour flying (!) and is sure to be involved in a lot of the finishes in this year's race. I think quite a few of the stages suit him and he could well be happy with taking a stage win or two and working to try to help Nairo until maybe Nairo drops out of the running and then he can switch focus back to trying to win stages. 

Romain Bardet - AG2R - 18/1 Best Price (Ladbrokes)

Bardet was 66/1 last year and I almost backed him but instead opted to go for a bet on him to finish in the top 3 at 10/1, and he duly obliged, taking a fantastic 2nd place. He finished ahead of Quintana, steadily moving up from 9th on stage 8 to 5th on stage 18 where he did a superb TT to finish 5th on the day. He then leaped from 5th to 2nd with his stunning win on stage 19 to Saint Gervais Mont Blanc, putting 26" in to Quintana and leapfrogging over him. 

Last year he started to improve in the Dauphiné, finishing 2nd to Froome. This year I think he was very unlucky in the Dauphiné, he lost 1'53" on a bad day in the ITT but then rode superbly to claw back time on stage 7, taking 42" off of Porte. He also rode very well on stage 8 to finish 8th, again taking back time against his rivals. In the end he finished just 2'04" behind Fuglsang in 6th place overall, so the poor TT possibly cost him a podium place.

He finished 6th in Oman, 10th in Catalunya, 15th in Pais Vasco and 6th in Liege Bastogne Liege, so his results have been solid, if not spectacular this year. But solid, not spectacular was what got him up to 2nd place in the Tour last year and it's what could well see him in the top 6, maybe even top 3 of the race again.

He has a good team with him again, Pierre Latour and Matthias Frank will be great for him in the mountains, and he has the balls at least to try attacks, be they on an uphill or downhill slope, he gives himself a chance of taking time at least, which a lot of other riders don't always seem to want to do.  

Fabio Aru - Astana - 33/1 Best Price (Ladbrokes)

What do we make of Fabulous Fabio's chances then?! He's been very much under the radar this year it would seem, he hasn't really done a whole lot of racing on the face of it, having clocked up just 3,700kms to date, that's a full 1,800kms less than Dan Martin and 1,900kms less than Contador. But of course there's a reason for that, and that was the serious crash he had while training in Sierra Nevada on April 2nd. It meant that he was forced to skip the Giro d'Italia which he was training for, and which passed through his home island of Sardinia. 

So he either will come here as one of the freshest, or one of the least fit it would seem.. but he has been training as hard as he can since then and continues to do so, after the Dauphiné, he was training on Sestriere and the Col d'Izoard with Alexie Lutsenko and seemed to be very happy with his form. (right)

Considering the bad knee injury he had and the lack of training, he actually did really well I thought in the Dauphiné, despite the fact he hadn't raced in almost three months. He got better as the week went on, moving up from 24th to 5th.. He was superb I thought on stage 6, attacking away from Dan Martin's little escape group and quickly bridging to Fuglsang who worked with him to build a gap. Aru was relentless though and left him behind and went over the top of the climb with a small lead over Porte, Froome and Fuglsang, then he worked for Fuglsang and helped him take the stage win. He also impressed on stage 7, taking 10th on the day, 6" ahead of Froome.

He's a former Vuelta winner of course and has finished 2nd and 3rd in the Giro, so the boy knows how to ride a Grand Tour. The big questions that need to be answered though are whether he will come here with enough fitness and sharpness in the legs (I think he will) and also whether he and Fuglsang will be sharing leadership duties like they say they are going to be... Will he work for Fuglsang or vice versa? The Astana team, and Aru in particular are still quite raw about the death of his good friend Scarponi, I expect Aru to light it up one day in memory of his mate. But will he be good enough to podium? I think he could well come very close.. the TTs will be a problem though, so I think a top 6 slot for him instead, maybe 5th. 

Conclusion

This is a Tour that has the makings of being a wide open race, with Porte and Froome dueling for favouritism at the head of the market. There should be a brilliant battle between them, both up the hills and down the descents, but there are a number of riders just behind them as I've listed above who will be ready to pounce on any slip-ups. 

And of course, it's not just the six guys above - there are a number of possible outsiders that could do a Peraud or a Pinot like in 2014, or a Valverde in 2015, or a Bardet in 2016 I've covered them in my Outsiders analysis and preview .

My final Recommendations are on the foot of my 'Outsiders' analysis. Click here to read that now.