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Published on Saturday, 23 July 2016 17:58

TDF Stage 21

Chantilly to Paris Champs-Élysées

Sunday 24th July, 113kms 

The final act in this three-week drama, the traditional run in to a sprint on the Champs Élysées. The sprinters have had some good battles in this race, but have had to endure almost a week of agony since the last sprint finish. 

An epic stage today up front, and we almost landed another winner with Pantano. So, so close, Izagirre came out of nowhere and mugged all three of the leaders who had all traded to 1.65 or shorter at various points. Nibali had looked the winner at one point and traded to 1.24 (1/5) and it looked all over, but Izagirre came up with strong legs and took Pantano with him as Alaphilippe finally cracked. 

Ironically it was on the descent that Pantano lost it, overcooking a corner as Izagirre pushed on and going on to the grass. Nibali held him up too, as he was descending uncharacteristically badly. Izagirre is a fine descender though and Pantano couldn't catch him. Behind, nothing was happening. Nothing. No attack from the GC men, No attack from Yates to try to take 3rd spot, nothing. Sky simply strangled the race to death again and incredibly finished with 5 riders in the front group of 13.

At least Purito attacked, taking 48" and moving up to 7th from 11th. Martin and Valverde sealed their top ten finishes too which is good and Van Garderen hung in there to land the GC match bet over Alaphilippe and the double with Froome over Contador.. I was beginning to worry about that one as he looked like a possible DNF for a few days.. Bardet lands the 10/1 to finish on the podium bet as well, so not a bad end to the race. 

And Dan Martin 'won' the group sprint, justifying my faith in picking him, but it was to no avail, and in fact what he was doing was busting our winning treble, which was very annoying as the other two easily won. Damiano Caruso wasn't far off in 16th, leading home the five Sky riders. 

Mark Cavendish has gone home, but all the rest of the sprinters are still here - Kittel has had a disappointing race by his standards, as has Greipel who hasn't won a stage yet. Kristoff has come as close as Greipel to winning though, being denied in a photo finish. We've had McLay, Laporte, Kristoff, Coquard, Holst Enger and Sagan have all been invovled in sprints, can one of them finish off the Tour with a win on the Champs Elysées?

The Route

Let's not waste each other's time here, it's not really a route to spend a lot of time describing or reading too much about, they leave Chantilly, go over a few lumps along the way, including the Cat 4 Côte de l'Ermitage, but they enter the circuit in Paris after 57kms and do eight laps of a 6.5km circuit around Paris before finishing on the Champs.  

Contenders and Favourites

Marcel Kittel - 11/8 favourite with Paddy Power.. Winner of this stage in 2013 and 2014, Kittel loves the sprint on the Champs and has won the stages pretty easily when he has contested. But can you trust him after all the times he has been beaten and beaten easily here? I'm not sure I'm prepared to risk it again, Etixx have spent a lot of energy trying to look after Martin (and were pretty awful at it) and Alaphilippe burnt a lot of energy today on the attack. Their leadout has been sketchy at the best of times and Kittel just hasn't had the speed to finish stages off. He will also have been suffering badly in the last two days with his bulk. 

Bryan Coquard on the other hand is something like 24 kilogrammes lighter than Kittel, so although he will have suffered too over the last few days on the climbs, he will have not have been as uncomfortable as Kittel, a point borne out by the fact he finished a good few minutes ahead of Kittel on each of the last two stages.

Coquard has big motivation here too as he has been pushed off the 3rd place on the points competition by Michael Matthews breakaways in the last two days. It's noticeable that Coquard didn't go on the attack like Matthews when the sprints were so close to the start of the stage, either he's cooked or he is confident of a good ride tomorrow. He came very late and fast to take 3rd last year and was very annoyed with himself as he thought he should have won. At 12/1 each-way I think he's worth a go again.

Alexander Kristoff has come 3rd, 2nd and 6th in the last three years here and looked like the winner last year with 100m or so to go, but Greipel came past him like a rocket in the last 100m, followed by Coquard. He was even closer in 2014, just beaten by Kittel, again, looking like he might win it only to be swamped. He has been improving steadily in this race and could well lead out the sprint again tomorrow, his style is to lead from the front.

André Greipel - he always wins a stage in the Tour, can he save his race at the death? He hasn't been himself in this race though, but he did come about as close to winning as you can do on stage 3, but he has regressed from there. It has put me off him a little at 9/2.

Peter Sagan has been superb in this race and has taken three stage wins and another six top 6 placings. He has finished 7th, 9th and 4th in the last 3 years on the final stage though, he hasn't managed to break the podium yet. He is arguably sprinting better than he has ever done though so he could come close this time for sure, especially with Cavendish out of the equation. He did work extemely hard for Kreuziger though today to try to pull Kreuziger up on the GC (to no avail) so he might be tired after that. It is such a short effort tomorrow though that he might be alright.

John Degenkolb has been getting closer, what a great way it would be to finish his Tour with a win, after everything he has been through. 8th, 108th and 114th aren't confidence-inspiring results though and I think Deggers will be pretty worn out after the last three weeks. 4th to 10th for me again I think.

Holst Enger, Laporte, Groenewegen, Matthews can all be fighting for 5th to 10th places I think, Dan McLay has looked absolutely shattered over the last week, just managing to stay in front of the Voiture Balai, I'd be amazed if he was fighting for the win in such a hustle-bustle finish as this. In fact, the evens on Bennett to beat him looks a great bet.

Speaking of Sam Bennett, 100/1 with Paddy Power is just far too tempting to leave, he has been feeling much better in the last few days I'm hearing and will be giving it a go tomorrow. He will miss Shane Archbold obviously but if he can be brought near the front in the last 2kms or so he should be able to jump on the Katusha or Lotto train. I think he needs to get on Kristoff or Coquard's wheel and come out from behind them late, but at his best he'd have a chance aginst these guys for sure. He's probably not at his best of course, but at 100/1 he's worth a nibble.

I just can't trust Greipel and Kittel and I think both are beatable tomorrow. Kristoff and Coquard are the two most likely to challenge both of them and at 8/1 and 12/1 respectively I think they both are worth backing. Sam Bennett might surprise a few too. 

Just to let you know as well, we will be sorting the free Sean Kelly mugs next week for all subscribers, please email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with the address you would like it posted to and I'll be sending them on to Look Mum No Hands in the next few days. Thanks for reading for the last three weeks, it's been an interesting, if not a legendary Tour, hopefully you enjoyed the previews. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 8/1 with Corals

0.5pts each-way on Bryan Coquard at 12/1 with Paddy Power 

0.2pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 100/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets:

Bennett to beat McLay - 3pts at evens with Paddy Power

Kristoff to beat Sagan - 5pts at 11/10 with PP, 3pts on Sagan to beat Kristoff at 6/5 with Bet365 - effectively betting 1.4pts to win 2.5pts or the equivalent of about 7/4 on Kristoff beating Sagan.

Coquard to beat Degenkolb and Navardauskas to beat Roux - 2pts on the treble at 11/8 with Paddy Power

Coquard to beat Degenkolb and Groenewegen to beat McLay - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365