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Published on Thursday, 21 July 2016 22:48

TDF Stage 19

Albertville - St-Gvs Mt Blanc

Friday 22th July, 146kms

A stage that finishes on Mont Blanc, you know is going to be tough. It's a short stage at just 146kms so it's sure to be explosive and starts with a bang with the climb of the Collet de Tamie, which although is uncategorised, is 8.1kms at 7%. 

Milliseconds. Like the photo finishes with Coquard and Kristoff, we were denied a return by the smallest of margins. So small in fact that when Froome crossed the line they showed the top three briefly and had Porte as 3rd. But instead, it was the mysterious enigma that is Fabio Aru that took 3rd place with a stunning ride.

Now regular readers will know that I rant on about Porte being a bit thick, but today he really annoyed me. Why no aero helmet? Why no deep rim or disk wheel? Why no overshoes? Why not any attempt to draw on the years of ‘Marginal Gains’  he had beaten in to him at Sky? Froome went full TT and won the time trial by a wide margin from Dumoulin, he claimed after that doing so made all the difference.

What did Porte claim afterwards? That he didn’t feel that he gave it all that he could, that he was disappointed.. What? Nicely done Richie! Now I know it sounds like my pocket talking, and it is, but also, come on.. Why didn’t they take every possible advantage they could – Bardet wore an aero helmet; Yates did; Aru did. Porte didn’t. What are the team management doing where they see him go to the start in a road helmet and don’t say “get that damn aero helmet on you now!”.

Froome was ridiculous again though, coming from 14” behind Dumoulin at the first time check to being 21” ahead of him at the finish. Dumoulin looked to have it in the bag and went as short as evens before Froome started. It wasn’t a bad time by Porte to be fair, sort of what I expected, but to be beaten by Aru, a man who couldn’t time trial to save his life not so long ago made it even more galling. Yates did a brilliant TT, as did Valverde, Martin and Mollema, and Quintana recovered from a slow start to do the second part of the stage very fast and take 10th. Froome has now extended his lead to nearly four minutes, a gulf, not a gap.

Behind him though there is a real battle building for the next two spots on the podium, with only 1’08” separating Mollema in 2nd from Porte in 6th, with Aru the same time gap back from Porte. There’s only 24” between Mollema in 2nd and Yates in 3rd and 21” between Yates and Quintana. Porte is now odds on for a top 3 finish though, it looks like the bookies think he will take time off all his rivals above him again tomorrow. The 18/1 each-way might just land yet. 

So one Alpine stage down, the TT down, two Alpine stages to come and then the procession to Paris. The riders must be already looking forward to their post-race party beers, but they have two three more days to get through before they can think about those...

Some riders are getting very, very tired, others are starting to find their legs. Nairo Quintana was supposed to mount his charge over these closing stages in the Alps, he has fallen dramatically short of delivering on expectations and promises. Fabio Aru has a history of getting stronger as races go on, as per when he came late to take 2nd place in the 2015 Giro and win the Vuelta a Espana. He's too far off to win this race, but he clearly is getting stronger, looking at his 3rd place in the TT today, and he is sure to try to break things up in the coming two stages. A stage win isn't out of the question either, he's too far down on the GC to be worrying about that. .

Froome is supposed to tire towards the end of a three-week Tour, but I don't think it's going to happen this year, he just hasn't been tested enough to be feeling major fatique. The punches he encountered were were glancing blows and soft tummy punches - no knockout blows yet. Mollema has a history of fading in the final week of the Tour, having fallen from 2nd to 6th in the final week in 2013. He admitted that he didn't have good legs on stage 17, but he didn't crack until very late on a very hard climb and limited his losses pretty well. He did a pretty good TT too today to not really lose any time to young Yates..

And Porte - everyone says that "Porte always has a bad day" - well he has been the best rider in this race bar Froome I think and it's a real shame that he had that puncture as he'd have definitely been on the final podium here, he would be clear in 2nd place. But it's not too late - with the way that he has been riding, unless he has his 'jour sans' tomorrow then I think he could move up even further in the GC.  

The Route

 A zig-zag route that starts in Albertville and 400m in they start climbing straight away with the Collet de Tamie, which is uncategorised, but is still a very hard start to the day with an 8.1km climb at 7%, a perfect launch pad for the break of the day. After the Tamie they turn north and after 32kms they start climbing the Col de la Forclaz de Montmin, a Cat 1 climb of 9.8kms, averaging 6.9%.

They continue heading south-west and after 68kms take on the Cat 2 Col de la Forclaz de Quelge (5.6kms at 7.8%) and after a very short 3km descent they start on the main event of the day, the HC Montée de Bisanne. The MDB is 12.4kms long at an average of 8.2%,  but it gets steeper near the top with the last 6.4kms averaging 9.2%. They then descend for nearly 40kms to the base of the final climb of the day. 

The climb of Le Bettex is 9.8kms long at an average of 8%, but the opening kilometres are very steep, with the first kilometre averaging 12.9%, with parts hitting up to 16% for something like 200m. The next kilometre averages 10.8% and the third kilometre 9%. It eases off a little for the next 3.5kms or so, but the last 4kms are steep again, averaging over 8%. The last 800m averages 7.8% and rises all the way to the finish line at a steady gradient. 

Contenders and Favourites

A profile like this, Froome comfortably clear, GC men who seem physically incapable of challenging him and now might be more concerned about protecting their places in the top ten than racing to try to improve them... all scream break wins doesn't it? Who's going to do the chasing? Who's going to push? Sky will just do like they did on stage 17 to Finhaut Emosson and ride a steady tempo, suffocating all attacks, which will probably see the break's lead push up towards 10 minutes.

If they can get over the Montee de Bisanne with a lead of 7-8 minutes then they probably won't be caught. The fast downhill for nearly 40kms until the base of the final climb will probably see them hold the lead pretty steady as no GC team will want to push too hard before they arrive at the final climb, and no GC challenger is going to try to attack so far out on these roads with the false flats and flat sections. And with the HC Bisanne in the way before that, there might not be all that many support riders left in the front group anyway, unless they really ride up it at tempo and no big attacks come. 

Something to note though is that this stage is almost a replica of a stage in the Dauphiné last year, with the final climb up to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc as well. A stage won by Froome from Tejay and Meintjes, with Rodriguez in 5th, Bardet in 6th, Vuillermoz in 7th, Costa in 9th and Navarro in 10th. 

The break didn't make it that day, but I think it has a big chance of winning tomorrow - but you need to be a good climber, and be feeling strong late in this race in order to go well today. The stage starts with a bang with 8kms at 7%, it's going to be difficult to get in the break of the day and you need to have good climbing legs right from the start - look out for tweets of guys warming up on rollers before the start to get an idea of who might be looking to get in the break. But I still think there will be a big break of some 10-20 riders will go, like we got on stage 17. 

Of course the usual suspects are going to be there - Zakarin, Majka, Navarro, Plaza, Pantano, Cummings, Costa, de Gendt, and we could see the winner come from one of this lot again. Zakarin looks the best bet of that lot again and at 11/1 with Paddy Power when they opened it was a decent enough bet, he's been clipped since in to as short as 11/2, but is still 9/1 with PP.  I think rather than go each-way this time I'll double stakes and go win only - he seems capable of riding away from most guys that will probably be in the break. 

Ruben Plaza has tried a few times but has always been dropped early on in the main skirmishes, can he finally make it in to the final battle of the day? I'm not sure. Brice Feillu rode very well in stage 17, coming home in 5th, maybe he can get involved again? At 250/1 it's worth a few pennies. Rui Costa has disappointed so many times for us, I was almost willing to not give him another try, even though he has said he will keep attacking. He was unable to stay with the Majka/Zakarin group very early on in stage 17, and that's a bad sign to me, but the only positive is that the weather is potentially going to be bad, with thunderstorms expected in the afternoon, so that will be in his favour, he's a man that doesn't mind the wet. 

Jarlinson Pantano has been excellent in this Tour, but will he have the legs to go again? I wouldn't put it past him. Majka will take the HC points at the Bisanne probabaly and then have nothing left for the final climb like last time around. Eduardo Sepulveda has been very disappointing in this race so far, can he finally make a move? He's 150/1 too. Other riders who did very good TTs today, showing they have great legs were Jerome Coppell, Romain Sicard, Stef Clement and Nicholas Edet. France are desperately in need of a stage win so watch out for the French lads trying to get in the break.

Another rider who I want to give another go to is Alexis Vuillermoz, he was very good on the climb to Mont Blanc in the Dauphiné last year, attacking, bridging to the leaders and attacking again, only to be reeled in by the GC men (see video below, at 21'45" you can see how well he was going), he was caught by Froome and Tejay with 3.6kms to go and then went working for Bardet but still finished 7th.  He came close for us on stage 15, and at 80/1 with PP he's worth an each-way. 

As for the GC men, it's hard to see past Froome and Porte again, they are clearly the strongest guys in the race. Will Froome help his old mate to get on to the podium? Will they attack away from the pack again in the last few kilometres and time trial to the finish putting as much time as they can in to everyone else? It's very possible. And if they are happening to be fighting it out for the stage win he might just give it to Porte too - the 10" bonus are worth a lot more to Porte than Froome. 

Fabio Aru is clearly starting to fly though again, as he did in the past in the last few days of the Giro and the Vuelta, and he could fancy an attack late on the final climb, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see him attack early and bridge to someone like Rosa or Kangert who might have been in the break of the day. Dan Martin looks to have really good legs still too, he did an excellent TT for a guy who can't TT. He should like this finish and he may just get away this time if he tries a  little later, maybe with just 1km to go (if he's still in there!).

Yates, Mollema, Meintjes, Valverde, Bardet, Kreuziger and Quintana should all be there too. Can Quintana do something finally? He started the TT really badly, but finished really strongly to limit his losses, can he finally make a move and rescue his Tour? It was announced today that he is going to be leading the Movistar team in the Vuelta this year, so maybe he'd like to leave with a stage win. 

But I think it's one to shoot some bets at the breakaway candidates and watch the gaps to back the GC men in play. If it does look like the break will be caught by the peloton then I will probably back Porte and Aru in play.  

Recommendations:

0.3pts win on Brice Feillu at 125/1 with Skybet (paying four places)

1pt win on Ilnur Zakarin at 9/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts win on Jerome Coppel at 300/1 with various

0.2pts win on Stef Clement at 150/1 with Skybet (paying four places)

0.2pts win on Nicholas Edet at 300/1 with various

0.2pts win on Ruben Plaza at 250/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 80/1 with PP

Watch the time gaps to see if the break will be caught and back Porte and Aru in play maybe - watch for tweets for thoughts on that. 

Match Bets 

Porte to beat Froome - 2pts at 6/4 with PP

Rolland to beat Vuillermoz, Pantano to beat Pozzovivo , Zakarin to beat Majka - 2pts at 9/4 with Bet365

Martin to beat Rodriguez - 1pt at 5/4 with Bet365