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- Published on Sunday, 23 August 2020 11:13
Tour de France 2020
A tour like no other..
Right about now we should have been enjoying the start of the Vuelta a Espana... but in this topsy-turvy, crazy, unprecendented year, we instead find ourselves looking forward to a Tour de France in September. A Tour de France littered with confusion and conundrums and potential controversy, and a Tour de France that might not even make it all the way to Paris.
Last year's Tour was famously brought to an abrupt conclusion with the race being neutralized due to landslides on the descent of Col de l'Iseran, effectiely handing the title to Egan Bernal. Julian Alaphilippe had led the race with panache for 14 of the 18 stages up until then, with a brief appearance in yellow for Mike Teunnisen after his win on stage 1, and a short loan to Giulio Ciccone for stages 6 and 7.
It was a sensational performance all race by Alaphilippe, with his win in the ITT on stage 13 in Pau being one of the highlights. But he finally cracked on the slopes of the Iseran, and with Bernal crossing the summit 2'07" ahead of the Frenchman, where the stage times were awarded, he leapfrogged over him and in to a comfortable lead ahead of the shortened final stage up to Val Thorens (won in fine style by Vincenzo Nibali).
The sprinters shared the prizes around quite a bit, but they were shocked by Mike Teunnisen outsprinting them all in Brussels, helped in some way of course by the crash about 1km out that took down his team-mate and their sprinter, Dylan Groenewegen. Elia Viviani, Peter Sagan and Groenewegen all took a stage before Caleb Ewan finally clicked in to gear, but the pocket-rocket ended up winning 3 stages in total, including the big one on the Champs Élysées at the end.
Wout Van Aert gave us a glimpse of what was to come this season with a superb win on stage 10 in to Albi, shocking all the sprinters, none more so than Elia Viviani (right), but then suffered his horror crash just three days later when he ripped his leg on a crowd barrier.
Simon Yates took two mountain stage wins, Thibaut Pinot helped himself to one, as did Nairo Quintana, rescuing what was a disappointing race for him, finishing 8th overall. Matteo Trentin and Daryl Impey took two fine stage wins, and of course, Thomas de Gendt did a Thomas de Gendt and held off the rampaging Alaphilippe and Pinot by just 6" after being in the break all day.
The biggest disappointment though of the race was probably the tearful abandonment of Thibaut Pinot on stage 19 while sitting in 5th place and still within catching distance of Alaphilippe (especially considering how the stage panned out). He had hit his knee on his handlebars a few days earlier when avoiding a crash, and had been suffering with pain, but it overwhelmed him on the early stages of stage 19 and he had to step off the bike, totally distraught. Can he exact some form of redemption this year?
Peter Sagan did a Peter Sagan too of course, taking the green points jersey for a record 7th time, taking 10 top 10 placings along the way, with a stage victory on stage 5 to Colmar, after all the sprinters had got dropped on the hills before the finish. We've not seen Sagan anywhere like his old self this year though, and with Sam Bennett, Wout Van Aert and Caleb Ewan all capable of taking lots of top ten finishes, he could see his reign come to an end this year. The 8/13 on him doesn't look all that attractive to me.
Romain Bardet was a brilliant 66/1 (and 33/1) winner for us last year in the KOM, when I suggested he should forget about the GC and go for the KOM, which is just how it turned out. Can he repeat that feat this year? It's very possible, he doesn't look capable of challenging the top guys in the GC any more, especially with the form he's shown in recent weeks, so he might just focus on stage wins and the KOM. No 66/1 available on him this year though, he's just 10/1, with Alaphiilppe, who has insisted he's not riding for GC this year, the 4/1 favourite.
Egan Bernal looks a shoe-in for the young riders jersey again, but 11/20 is a bit skinny, Tadej Pogacar will be right there or thereabouts with him in the mountains, and will be looking to challenge him for sure, with Dani Martinez and Pavel Sivakov two very talented and powerful younsters waiting in the wings also.
The 2020 Route
A not-so-nice start to the race in Nice, with two very tough stages to kick things off, before they dip their toes in to the southern part of the French Alps, with the first summit finish of the race coming already on stage 4, one of the earliest summit finishes in the Tour in recent memory. They then skip south west towards the Pyrenees, where there are only two stages this year, but two tough ones they are, with the first HC climb of the race, on the Porte de Balès, a feature of stage 8 (it also features the Col de Peyresourde!)
It's then a shift up to the Ile de Ré, where they will have to be on their guard for cross-winds and splits from the wind coming in off the sea, and from there they cut eastwards across the country, taking in a few bumpy stages along the way through the Massif Central. The lumpy stage 13 to the Puy Mary is one in particular I'm looking forward to, as it's an area of France, and a climb, I know very well.
Stage 15 takes them back in to the Alps with the finish up to the HC Grand Colombier, the latter stages of this stage also featured in the Tour de L'Ain, when Primoz Roglic skipped away from everyone again.
Stage 16 looks like one for the breakaway, and takes in the Col de Porte, which also featured in a stage in the Dauphiné (again, won by Roglic), but this time it's an early climb on the stage and not the finish, as they head to Villard de Lans. Stage 17 should be explosive, with the Col de la Madeleine (HC) and the finish on the Col de la Loz (HC also), the highest point in the race and the only climb to go over 2,000m.
Stage 18 looks like it could be a crazy stage, potentially with action all day, one to watch from the start. It even includes a section on gravel on one of the six climbs they tackle that day (below).
Stage 19 looks like a break day again, as the GC men will be looking to save some energy ahead of what could potentially be the race-deciding stage the next day, with the ITT to La Planche des Belles Filles over 36kms. Stage 21 is the traditional curtain-call, with the sprint on the Champs Élysées.
So we have eight mountain stages with four summit finishes, nine 'flat' stages, three 'hilly' stages and one 36km ITT, covering a total of 3,470km. That's 100kms more than the 2019 and 2018 editions, but 70kms less than 2017. It is a route that will require all GC candidates to be on their toes and ready right from the first stage. The first two stages could catch some out and we could see early skirmishes by the favourites to see who's feeling hot or not and to see if the walking wounded have recovered.
By the time they reach the end of stage 8 they will have already have had two summit finishes, one in the Alps, and another two stages in the mountains of the Pyrenées, not to mention the tricky, nervous stages across the Auvergne Rhone Alps and the Occitane.
The stage to the Puy Mary could also be a key one, but it may well be that the main GC men look to preserve energy ahead of their return to the Alps and the finish on the Grand Colombier on stage 15 and the three tough stages that follow. And as for that ITT, that's going to be an hour of absolute torture for most as they go all out to finish their Tour on a high. Who knows, it could all come down to those last 6kms up to LPDBF.
Main Contenders
With the non-selection of Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas, and with Vincenzo Nibali doing the Giro, Egan Bernal is the only former winner of the race in the starting line-up. We do have former winners of the Giro though in Richard Carapaz, Tom Dumoulin and Nairo Quintana and winners of the Vuelta in Nairo and Primoz Roglic.
Egan Bernal was hot favourite for the Tour for months, trading in to as short as 2/1 on Betfair earlier in the season. He was always going to be leading Team Skineos, regardles of how Thomas and Froome did in the prep races, but their omission entirely surprised some, but not me, they are a long way from leading a team at the moment.
Bernal started the season well, with 2nd in the Colombian National road race and 3rd in the TT, then went on to win the Route d'Occitanie after the return before finishing runner-up to Roglic in the Tour de l'Ain, but he was never really able to lay a glove on him. He didn't look 100% in the Dauphiné before abandoning, citing back pain before the start of stage 4. So we don't really know the full picture with regards to his form and his chances going in to the race, but the confidence seems to be there in him judging by how he has shortened up in price this week.
On his best form, he can win of course, but if he comes in to this race not quite at his best he could find himseld in trouble inside the first week. His team is still super-strong of course, even without the two former winners, with Richard Carapaz, Pavel Sivakov and Jonathan Castroviejo three superb 'domestiques' to have with him in the mountains. I think we'll see a different Ineos in the Tour though and Bernal will be ready.
He took the lead in the Vuelta last year after the hilly ITT on stage 10 and never looked back. The ITT here comes quite late, and there is only one ITT, but if he has recovered from his injuries then the ITT might be just the final nail in all his rivals coffins.
With doubts about the top two, could we see a 'surprise' winner? Tom Dumoulin - how could you call someone as talented and strong as Dumoulin an outsider? Apparently going here as support for Roglic, but the road might decide who really is team leader.. Well, should Roglic not be at 100%, or if he crashes yet again, then Dumoulin could well step up to the plate.
Could it finally be the year the French break their drought with Thibaut Pinot? Very unlucky to leave the race like he did last year, he will be itching to get stuck in and try to exact revenge. His form has been pretty steady too and he knows the roads to LPDBF like the back of his hand as they are his training roads.. He would indeed be a massively popular winner.
Richard Carapaz has been pulled from defending his title at the Giro to ride in support for Bernal, but like with Roglic, should anything happen to Bernal, Carapaz will be ready to step up. Similar could be said of Pavel Sivakov, but I think it might be just a year or two early for him.
Tadej Pogacar is the 3rd youngest rider on the start-list, at just under 22 years old (he turns 22 the day after the Tour finishes), but he has a big chance of a top 5 placing, possibly even challenging for a podium spot. Winner of Valenciana at the start of the year, he followed that with 2nd in the UAE Tour behind Adam Yates and 4th in the Dauphiné just a few weeks ago, he can climb with the best, has a decent TT in him and is cool and calm beyond his years.
And then you have the likes of Nairo Quintana (has been suffering knee pain), Manuel Buchmann (4th last year, but also crashed in the Dauphiné), Julian Alaphilippe (although they are insisting he's not going for the GC), Mikel Landa, Bauke Mollema, Richie Porte, Miguel Angel Lopez, Daniel Martinez, Adam Yates, Sepp Kuss, George Bennett, Enric Mas, Rigo Uran and Romain Bardet who will be in the vanguard when it comes to the latter stages of the big mountain stages and will be fighting it out for the remaining top 10 places.
It's a widely varied Tour, with lots of challenges across the 3 weeks. It's the kind of Tour that the one day that looks like not much might happen, could well be one of those chaotic, decisive ones. The weather is going to be a little different than usual in September and the lack of racing and form could throw up a lot of surprises.
The sprinters don't have a lot of opportunites, maybe only four clear sprint stages, and for the rest of the race they will be fighting for their lives to either get to the finish with the peloton and try for a sprint, or fighting to get to a finish inside the time limits.
The KOM looks wide open as usual, with Julian Alaphilippe an interesting favourite at 4/1, he was 7/4 favourite to take it last year but obviously got a little side-tracked. There's no 66/1 like we got on Romain Bardet winning the KOM last year, he's just 9/1, but there are loads of other contenders like Adam Yates, Warren Barguil, Thomas de Gendt and even Pierre Rolland who has had a renaissance of late.
It looks like a two-horse-race on paper, but this year, anything could happen. Let's just hope they all stay safe and get to finish the race as scheduled in Paris.
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