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- Published on Wednesday, 02 July 2014 23:13
Tour de France Jerseys betting
Who'll take home the green, polka dot and white jerseys?
Last year we saw Nairo Quintana swoop on the penultimate stage to steal the mountains Jersey from the shoulders of Chris Froome with a brilliant stage win to add it to the white jersey he was wearing for best young rider. Sagan comfortably won the green points Jersey, he was 1/10 for it after just a week!
Points Jersey
Green Points Jersey Competition
Last year Peter Sagan was one of my bets of the Tour, and I had quiet a big bet on him as I honestly couldn't see past him and thought he'd be in a great position after just a few stages. It was exactly how it turned out and he put in such a great performance in the first stages I was able to trade out of my bet at 1.10 (1/10) before the first rest day.
This year I think will be no different but his odds are a lot shorter, as short as 1/2 with the best price a meagre 4/7. If the Tour wasn't a 3 week circus it would be a max bet, but definitely not a price you'll get rich off. He is fractionally bigger on Betfair at 1.6 (8/13) though and that could be a good trading bet as he should once again do well in the opening week.
The first stage could well see him pick up points, possibly even maximum points, I quite fancy him to do something up that finishing kick. Stage 2 could see him win or get placed again and suddenly he'll be 1/3 or something like that.
The key to the points Jersey of course is consistency throughout the race and there are few more consistent than him. He can pick up points consistently over the three weeks, no matter where or when almost. He can take points in sprints, on hillier stages and out on the road at bonus sprints. The man is a green jersey machine as you can see from his results just from the last two seasons. Winner of green at last year's TDF, winner also this year of the green jersey at Tirreno-Adriatico, the Tour of California and The Tour de Suisse. Barring illness or accident he should easily secure the prize again this year and I think even at the short odds you won't find many better ways to earn 57% on your money over 3 weeks!
Who can challenge him? Well of course, the sprinters could theoretically give him a run for his money if he doesn't get his own way on the lumpier finishes. Mark Cavendish is best price 11/2 with 888Sport and it may well depend on whether he takes some points on the opening stages as to whether he will be in with a shot or not. If he wins the first stage and the third stage he could well go close. But that's a big ask and I can't see it happening to be honest. There could be slim pickings for the sprinters this year with stages 3, 4, 6, possibly 7, 15, possibly 19 and 21 the only real chances of scoring the big points at the finish. As I can see Kittel beating Cav on more than one occassion then I am not interested in backing him at all at 11/2.
Marcel Kittel is just a little bit more interesting at 6/1, he should win a few stages at least in the race and could well be in the top 3 come Paris in the fight for Green. He could do well on stage 1, is a strong shout for stage 3, 4 and 6 and should win in Paris for a second year running. With that kind of scoring it's hard to see him not being in the top 3. There is a big caveat though with these two guys - will they make it all the way to the finish in Paris? There is a real danger that the time limit will come in to play on stages 17 and 18 and if the Autobus dawdles too much there could be problems for some. If a big bunch comes to the finish together though it's unlikely that they will all be kicked out, but the danger will be hanging over them all day.
I'm not interested in backing Greipel, can't see him scoring anywhere near enough points, but Alexander Kristoff could be one to challenge for the each-way money at a tasty looking 20/1 with Boylesports. He could score points on the opening two stages and should be involved in a lot of the lumpier finishes when the likes of Cav and Kittel are nowhere to be seen. He should also be capable of picking up some points on the road on some lumpy stages when Cav and Kittel won't so he could be a dark horse for the Jersey.
Michael Matthews could have been one to score lots of points along the way too but following his crash while out on a training ride on Wednesday his position on the starting line-up is in jeopardy with Christian Meier standing by as a replacement. He has had to have stiches in his hand which will hinder him while riding and sprinting, but the pictures emerging of him show that he suffered from much more than just a cut on the hand, he's almost in a body cast!
Other than that, Arnaud Démare could pull off similar performances to Kristoff but I'd prefer Kristoff to do the job at the prices.
Recommendations:
Peter Sagan - 7pts win bet at 4/7 on Betfair, a trade it and lay it lower bet.
Marcel Kittel - 1pt each-way at 6/1 with Ladbrokes
King of the Mountains
Polka Dot King of the Mountains Jersey Competition
The points for the King of the Mountains is scored based on the category of climb that they go over, from the lowest Category 4 to the highest HC or 'Haute Category' climbs. The first over a HC climb scores 25 points, then 20,16,14,12,10 and so on down to 2pts for 10th. A Cat 1 climb scores 10pts for the first over, down to 1pt for 6th. If the stage finishes on a categorised climb the points are doubled, so that's a whopping 50pts are on offer for winning the stage at Hautacam for example.
This is a really hard market to pick from and that is evident in the odds that are available currently on the favourites - the top 3 in the market are all around 5/1 with no strong clear favourite. It looks like it could be a race whereby the GC contenders could well be dueling for the Polka Dots along the way too, given the double points for the stage winners. And this was indeed how it turned out last year with Froome leading the pack right up until the last stage when Quintana stole it from him by riding away to stage victory. Quintana was first, Froome 2nd, Rolland 3rd, Rodriguez 4th and Riblon 5th thanks to his exploits on Alpe d'Huez.
It could well be something similar this year in that Froome and Contador could well be fighting it out at the end of every stage or possibly in between too like on the Tourmalet. Alberto Contador is 10/3 favourite and I guess this is down to him being such a livewire and such an attack minded rider - he could lead over the top of the Tourmalet in an attack trying to stretch Froome ahead of the Hautacam for example. If Contador is eyeing up the GC and is in a leading position then he might take his foot off the gas a little with regards the KOM jersey so there is that danger. On the flip sde, should he be possibly out of contention for whatever reason he may well go stage hunting and jersey hunting. But I think overall he has the strongest chance - he will be agressive and he will be looking to put as much time between him and Froome before the final TT, which means he has to attack and has to win stages. He is a bit more attractive than the bookies best with Betfair, he is currently available to back at 5.2/1 after trading as low as 3/1 not that long ago.
Pierre Rolland is second favourite around 9/2 and he is one that could well land this prize. His GC ambitions seem to have just disappeared in recent years and he is just not on the same level as Contador and Froome. He has been riding ok though and tried to target this last year, only fading towards the end. I would think he could well step up from last year and come close to landing it. It will probabaly require him to go on the attack on several days early in the stages, but if he works too hard and they get caught he could well go straight out the back and not get the maximum points he is after.
Third favourite is Chris Froome, the rider who came so close to winning it last year, only to lose it on the last climb of the Tour. Froome should score lots of points on the big climbs of the race - the HC points on the Hautacam and Saint-Lary on stages 17 and 18 for example, but will he get enough to win the jersey? There will be quite a few guys in with chances for this prize and it may even be that a lower ranked rider quite fancies this jersey and starts the race with a bang by getting in to the break on stage 2 to hoover up the many points on offer. This could then see that rider try to hold on to it for as long as possible and suddenly there could be a wildcard in the competition for the KOM jersey.
Riders like Riblon at 50/1 - he finished 5th last year with the Alpe stage being his crowning glory in a season that was pretty poor up until then. He hasn't done much either this year, but the likeable Frenchman comes alive at this time of the year and could well be agressive with the attacks in the hunt for the jersey. I'm not sure he is the guy to go on the attack so early in England though, he may well wait for the Alps!
Or maybe guys like Jelle Vanendert or Nicolas Edet? Vanendert could well be on the attack in Yorkshire on a course that would suit him and he could pick up more points along the way in the first half of the race too. Nicolas Edet is a very active, agressive rider and he too could target this jersey. Stages 8 and 9 should suit them both too and there are lots of points on offer on these two days with a Cat 1, 3 Cat 2s and a bunch of Cat 3s to fight for. They are both available at 80/1 if you shop around.
Others to consider of course are the other GC candidates - Valverde is flying at the moment and has said he has never felt better. If the GC does start to escape from his grasp though will he possibly go after stage victories and as a result start to edge in to the KOM jersey? He has that finishing kick on climbs that could well see him take a stage or two and definitelt plenty of top 10 finishes.
Vincenzo Nibali likewise - we could well see the likes of Nibali on the attack over the top of the Tourmalet with that big descent ahead on the run to the start of the climb up to Hautacam. If he scores 25pts there and holds on to the finish he'll score 75pts on the day! Joaquin Rodriguez is a hard one to call as we have no recent form to go on as he is returning from his injuries sustained at the Giro. I would think though that it will take Purito a week or so to get going and the KOM might be out of reach by then.
As you can see though, it's nearly impossible to pick a winner from this until we see a few days of action. So I'll make a small prediction here and will follow it up with in-play updates once the picture becomes a bit clearer.
Recommendation:
Jelle Vanendert - 0.25pts win at 80/1 with 888Sport (they are offering win only)
Nicolas Edet - 0.25pts each-way at 80/1 with BetVictor
2pts win on Alberto Contador at 6.2 on Betfair
Young Riders
White Jersey Young Riders Competition
Last year Nairo Quintana was the very short priced favourite (I think he was around 1/4 or something ridiculous like that) but he ran away with it in the end, winning by over 13 minutes from Talansky. This year it's a lot more open and the competition for riders up to 25 and a half years of age should be a fascinating one to watch this year.
Romain Bardet, Thibaut Pinot and Michael Kwiatkowski are all pretty close at the top of the betting with Bardet the slight favourite at 2/1 best price. To me, Bardet has an excellent chance. He's a rider I like a lot and he could have a very bright future ahead of him. The 23 year old from Brioude may be 6ft 1in tall but he is only 67kgs, a tall powerful but lean figure on a bike! 4th overall in Catalunya and 5th just recently in the Criterium, he is in great shape going in to this race.
He seems to have a mature head on his shoulders too and is a very good climber - he often is in the last selection on the big climbs, a trait that should well see him pull away from his rivals in the GC. He has a very strong AG2R team with him Dumoulin, Minard, Peraud and Riblon to look after him should he be in contention. 15th overal last year as a 22yr old in his first TDF, that was a fantastic result and one that must see him fancying his chances of making it in to the top 10. I think he is very capable of a top 10 and by that reckoning, you have to ask, who can finish above him in the top 10?
The answer is not a lot really. Kwiatkowski may take a minute or two out of him on the TT with one stage to go but the damage could have been well and truly done before that if Kwiats recent climbing efforts are anything to go by. He could well be 10 minutes back on Bardet starting the TT. I think he is terrible value at 3/1. Thibaut Pinot - ah the cyclist who suddenly got scared of riding his bike fast downhill in the middle of the biggest microscope of all, the TDF. As strange an affliction as that may sound for a cyclist, he clearly had some issues to deal with last year, issues that he seems to thankfully have got over.
He rode well in the Tour de Suisse, but later in the week when we really needed to see what he could do he started suffering from an infection and was put on antibiotics and lost 2 mins on the penultimate stage and over 3mins on the final stage to slip down the pack. He did win the white jersey at Bayern Rundfahrt and was second in the Tour de Romandie so he could well do a top 20 and possibly be the closest challenger to Bardet.
Sebastien Reichanbach is a Swiss dark horse who is fancied by some but he seems a bit short to me even at 11/1. The IAM youngster took 2nd in the white jersey competition in Paris Nice this year behind Betancur with a solid performance. 14th in the recent Criterium, he took a good 9th place on the stage to the Col de Béal, just 44" behind Froome, showing that he is in good climbing shape. I don't think he will top Bardet though in his first TDF.
One dark horse though for the prize is young Simon Yates of OGE. Yates has had a good start to his career at pro-tour level - he recently took the white jersey at the Tour of Slovenia whilst also finishing in 7th on the GC. He is a good climber who may hang in there longer than most, but as no bookie other than Boyles are offering each-way betting, there is very little appeal in backing him win-only at 25/1.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Romain Bardet at 2/1 with Skybet.
