Green Jersey and KOM Betting

Last year I plumped for Sagan over Cavendish for the points jersey with my biggest bet of the Tour at 6/4 and it was all over in the first week. This year it is incredibly tight with both riders more or less at even money. 

That means if the bookies didn't price in an over-round, there is a 100% probability it will be one of these two that takes home the jersey.

Green (Points) Jersey

Cavendish may well win the first stage (but I don't think so - more later!) and may well wear the yellow for the first time as well as the green after stage one, but it gets harder after that for him with a few tough hilly stages in Corsica so he may well relinquish it again to Sagan pretty quickly. So prices will move around a bit, and if you fancy him for green, back him at 5/4 now on betfair and look to lay him back probably around 4/5 after the first stage. 

Overall though, I would rather be with Sagan and have backed him at 11/10.. OPQS have a pretty decent lead out train but it looks like there are probably only 6 stages that Cav can score points on, Sagan may well pick up a lot more on the lumpier stages. 

Other contenders? Greipel - not consistent enough and will struggle to cope with the hills. Kittel and Degenkolb - both great sprinters and could cause carnage in this years Tour, but that is their problem - there are two of them. Who is the sprinter leader for green? So too many split points maybe to make them serious challengers. 

Forget the rest, the bookies are right... 

Polka Dots (King of the Mountains) Jersey

Voeckler is 3/1 favourite after winning it last year, but that is too short a price. This is often won by outsiders or riders just down the betting order at least - Voeckler was probably 25/1 or something last year at the outset.. 

Second in the betting is Pierre Rolland so there is another problem - who of the two Europecar riders are going to be going for KOM and if Rolland has GC ambitions, will TV have to ride for him? so no bet on these two for now. 

Quintana - 10/1 - may well be working for Valverde and if that is not working out he may be concentrating on GC for himself or fighting for White. Either way I think he may well leave this competition for another year. 

The two I like at bigger prices are Kessiakof and Rodriguez, both backed at around 19/1. Kessiakof loves the mountains and had a titanic battle with Voeckler last year, only losing out to him by 12 points. I can see him having a free reign this year to go for it again and like his price. Rodriguez also could well go for this competition this year, may well nip up the road for a number of the hilly finishes so he is worth a go at 19/1 too. 

Dan Martin is an outsider for this too at 25/1 and maybe Thibout Pinot but they are no bets for me for now.