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Published on Thursday, 05 July 2018 00:10

TDF Team Classification

Who will be the top team?

The Team Classification was a very tight competition last year, with Team  Sky beating AG2R in the end by only 7 minutes, but it was a lonnnngggg way back to Trek in 3rd place, almost two hours!

Sky took the lead in this competition last year on the very first stage, after they placed an incredible four riders in the top eight finishers in the opening individual time trial, with Thomas 1st, Kiryienka 3rd and Froome 6th. And they never relenquished that lead once over the entire three weeks. AG2R fought them galliantly, but ultimately were just not good enough to overhaul them, and Sky landed the odds at 11/4.

Movistar, the 6/4 favourites got off to the worst possible start when Alejandro Valverde crashed in the opening TT and was forced out of the race, their chances went up in smoke before they had even started the first road stage. And with the rest of the team  

This is an unusual one in that even though it’s called the ‘team’ classification, it’s only the top 3 riders on each stage’s time that is calculated for the purposes of the Team Classification. This means that you will see riders for teams like AG2R who are maybe 2-3 minutes behind the winners on a mountain stage fighting all the way to the line for what appears to be a lost cause with the stage already long done. Teams like AG2R, who take these competitions seriously, or Movistar, BMC, Sky and Astana who like to have the bragging rights at the end of the race of being the ‘best team’.

Luck can play a big part in this competition too, as a puncture, crash or mechanical for a team leader can see many members of the squad hold back to look after him and the whole squad can lose a lot of time as a result. Also, if a team loses a leader, like Movistar did with Valverde last year, you can almost forget about them winning, as the focus and drive of the team evaporates. 

Movistar - 4/6

6/4 last year, 4/6 this year, backed in from around 11/10 a few days ago I seem to recall. Movistar were going for the hat-trick in this competition last year, when celebrating their 35th year at the Tour de France, but fell well short once Alejandro Valverde was taken out of the equation on stage 1. 

Movistar have been the dominant team in the Tour for two years prior to that, winning by a close margin in 2016, but quite a large one in 2015 (57 minutes). Movistar never need motivation for this competition, or indeed the TDF, I think they see it as a very personal battle with Team Sky and make it a target for the Team. 

And what a team they have here for it. They have the three superstars in Nairo, Mikel and Ale but the rest of the team isn't bad either, with Marc Soler, Andrey Amador, JJ Rojas, Daniele Bennati and Emanol Erviti. The three amigos are going to be finishing with the GC group on every stage you would imagine, and if not, they won't be far away. Quintana, Landa and Valverde all have stage wins in them from attacks, where they can gain extra time, and the likes of Amadaor, Rojas and Soler could be break candidates who gain chunks of time too. 

They will lose a bit of time in the TTT, but shouldn't be huge, maybe 45", but it's the cobbles I fear, and I'm sure they fear, the most. Most of them will have a tough time on that stage, Valverde might go ok, he's been practicing and rode very well in the Tour of Flanders, Amador, Rojas and Bennati should go well too, but if Nairo or Landa struggle or have issues, do they all wait for them and blow a lot of time? 

They will come in to their own in the mountains though and I expect fireworks from them, especially in the Pyrenéean stages, I can't wait to see what they do to Froome on the 65km stage. 4/6 is very short.. But they look like they have the right mix of ability and ambitions to take this competition. 

Team Sky – 6/4

11/4 last year, 6/4 this year.. so without overrounds, the odds are suggesting this competition is just between Movistar and Sky, with Movistar having the edge. And it's hard to argue with that, Sky have a monster team here with them and they ran away with this competition last year after all. 

A team with the GC favourite and likely top 6 finisher on all the mountain stages, including possibly winning a number of them.. A team with Thomas, Kwiatkowski, Poels, Moscon, Bernal and Castroviejo  – all of whom should go well on all the key stages, especially the longer mountain stages.

A team who will beat most others in the TTT by quite a margin and will score well in the final ITT too, a team that will have Thomas, Kwiatkowski, Moscon and Castroviejo leading the way on the cobbles, with Froome and the rest probably not far behind? 

On paper they look like a solid challenge to Movistar, Froome is a solid favourite, Thomas should go well, and Bernal and Kwiatkowski could take off and win a few stages. Even if they are put to work for Froome, some of them like Thomas, Poels and Bernal are capable of finishing high up on the stage results. The danger is a problem to Froome early in the race, or indeed fatigue from his Giro win, that would make it far more difficult for them to win it. 

There is also the danger of the team burning themselves up in the services of Froome, especially if they are forced to chase down attack, after attack, after attack, which could be the case with so much quality opposition this year. That was one of the reasons why, even though Froome won the race two years ago, Sky lost. They were actually ahead of Movistar earlier in the race. It was the same three years ago when they lost by nearly an hour to Movistar. In fact, over the last nine years, the GC winner's team has never won the team classification. 

AG2R – 8/1

AG2R were 11/2 to win this last year and actually came pretty close to toppling Sky for the prize, only losing in the end by 7'04". This is quite a similar team to last year's, with Bardet, Naesen, Domont, Vuillermoz, Latour and Frank all returning, and they are joined by two very powerful additions to the team in Silvan Dillier and Tony Gallopin. 

Romain Bardet will lead the line again and will feature in the top 10 in most of the hilly stages, and is also capable of a breakaway solo win that can add to their advantage. Backing him up are Frank, Dillier and Latour who will also be pretty consistent in the hilly stages, should be in the top 20 most days. They are also capable of getting in breaks that could take time. 

Oliver Naesen, Alexis Vuillermoz and Tony Gallopin are all capable of getting in winning breaks too and Gallopin, Vuillermoz and Dillier should go well in the lumpy stage to Quimper, the hilly one to the Mur de Bretagne and on the cobbles - Dillier finished 2nd to Sagan this year in Paris-Roubaix, don't forget.

I don't think they have the strength in depth though of the top two to win it, this race will be won on the mountain stages, and they might come up a little short, but I actually think they might not be that far off at all, and at 8/1 I think they offer a pretty decent each-way option, I think they will be in the top 3. 

Bahrain Merida - 22/1

It just goes to show the gulf between the top 3 and the rest in this race, the 4th favourite suddenly jumps to 22/1. Yes, Vincenzo Nibali might go well - but he may also not go well.. his form is a big question mark at the moment. He is backed up by some quality though, with Domenico Pozzovivo and the two Izagirre brothers bringing a lot to the table. 

They won't go great in the TTT, none of them bar Ion are really good time triallists for the final ITT either, but they might just go well in the mountains. Pozzo was climbing very well in the Giro and Ion has already finished 4th in Paris-Nice and 3rd in Itzulia this year. Gorka finished one place better than his brother in Paris Nice and has just won the Spanish road nationals and finished 2nd in the ITT, he looks ready to have a good Tour. 

The rest of the squad is questionnable as to what they can bring to his competition though, Koren will be a workhorse, but might get in some breaks, Haussler is there to help on the cobbles and Colbrelli and and Pellizoti will not gain them any time, unless they get in one of those mad breaks that stays 10 mins away. So, a decent team, but no way good enough to win this I think unless Nibali comes out with all guns blazing and Pozzo and the Izagirres also perform at the highest level, but I think they will be wasted looking after Nibali. 

Others

And after that the prices soar - Astana were 10/1 for this last year, they are 66/1 this year, despite having a GC fancy in Fuglsang. BMC are a huge looking 66/1 also, but if Porte lets them down, there's not much to the rest of the team and even if he does do well, the rest of the team will bury themselves to look after him. LottoNL Jumbo are 33/1, and they might have a chance of upsetting the top 3, with Roglic, Kruijswijk and Gesink they have three riders who will be top 20 on most mountain stages, but they will lose a lot of time in the TTs and there aren't many others on the team who can pitch in unless they get in breaks that win by a big margin. 

Now the problem with this market is the way the bookies have priced it up again - like last year a lot are going win only, so no way to back AG2R each-way. Some are just going e/w for the first two so that's not much better.

But I think Sky look a pretty decent bets against the Movistar guys, they will have the edge in the TTs and if the race plays out as most expect it to, they'll have lots of high stage finishers in all the key stages, including Roubaix. If any bookie goes e/w, then back AG2R each way. And I just have a slight worry that this experiment with putting all their eggs in one basket for the Tour might just back-fire a little bit on Movistar.. 

Recommendation:

2pts win on Team Sky at 6/4 with Various