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Published on Saturday, 08 July 2017 16:04

TDF Stage 9

Nantua to Chambéry

Sunday 9th July, 181kms 

A day spent climbing in the Jura mountains with four big climbs, culminating in a flat run to the finish in Chambery. Lots of double-digit climbing along the way and it could well see a strong breakaway rider solo to the finish. 

Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a tough stage. Seven climbs in total, three of which are Haute Category climbs, and they include legendary old climbs like the Grand Colombier as well as a new climb to the Tour de France, the brutally hard Mont du Chat, which averages 10.3% for 8.7kms.

It may be new to the Tour, but a lot of the riders here had a dress rehearsel for it in the Dauphiné on stage 6, a stage won in a sprint finish by Jacob Fuglsang from Richie Porte, but Porte could well have won the stage had Chris Froome not tried to put him in the barriers.. The finish that day was a lot closer to the top of the Mont du Chat, coming just 15kms from the summit, and just 2kms from the bottom of the descent. Instead, in this TDF stage, there is another 10kms to go, as they are passing through La Motte Servolex where the Dauphiné stage finished and carrying on instead to Chambéry. 

The climb up the Mont du Chat was pretty tough, with Fabio Aru attacking out of the main pack and briding up to Jacob Fuglsang who had been up the road. They were joined on the descent by Froome and Porte, Froome performing a death-defying descent that saw him cut through corners at terrifying speed in an attempt to catch Fuglsang, but also to drop Porte. And his animosity to Porte didn't stop there as we saw, with his errant sprint blocking Porte's path to a win. 

Valverde, Martin and Bardet were 50" back, I'm sure Martin and Bardet will be a lot closer to Froome and Porte this time around. With so many points on offer today, the battle for the KOM will surely begin in earnest and I expect all the key protagonists for the jersey to be trying in the break. 

Stage 7 Review

Well we expected a battle today to get in the break, and we sure got one. What was surprising though was that it was only a small group of 3 finally got away with Chavanel, Lutsenko and Van Avermaet getting up the road after about 10kms. But the sprinters teams kept them in check as it wasn't far to the intermediate sprint after 45kms and it was just chaos after that, it would take me a thousand words to try to describe everything that happened in the next 100kms, but as I'm going to U2 this afternoon, I'm not going to! Watch the highlights! We had loads of our breakaway riders involved at various points but came away with nothing on that front.

In the end though it was a great preformance from Calmejane to take the stage from Robert Gesink, even surviving a cramp scare with about 5kms to go on the final steep part of the stage. I'm annoyed I mentioned him but thought he would wait until tomorrow, should have had a few quid on him just in case. He did win by over 2" though which is good and Gesink won the match bet so it wasn't such a bad day despite the result.

I'm confused about BMC though, it was a crazy day where GVA and Nico Roche wasted tonnes of energy for nothing (ok, Roche held on for a creditable 4th) but he will be needed by Porte tomorrow and I can't understand why he persisted with it like that. Either there has been a falling out in the team and he's doing whatever he feels like, or Porte is so confident that he feels he doesn't need him tomorrow. 

Talansky pleased me with his performance, if he keeps riding like that he could well land the top10 bet I added yesterday. 

The Route

The route heads primarily south for the whole stage, but meanders its way over a series of climbs. climbing right from the flag drop and heading over the Cat 2 Cote des Neyrolles after just 3.5kms (3.2kms at 7.2%), what must surely be one of the fastest ascent of a categorised climbs in any race. Just 3.4kms later they start the Col de Bérentin, a Cat 3 climb of 4.1kms at 6.1%. 

A false flat of 5.5kms takes them to the start of a long descent, 20kms at first, then a little bump up before descending again for 11kms more. The bump up is the 3rd climb of the day, the Cote de Franclens. Tis but a bump in the road though at just 2.4kms at 6%, but after 51.5kms they start climbing again. Gently at first, but after 57kms they hit the first Haute Category climb of the day, the Col de la Biche which averages 9% for 10.5kms. After a short false flat and cresting another little climb (1km at 3.5%) they start descending for ten minutes and it's on to the next HC climb. 

The Grand Colombier is a legend of the Tour, and featured twice in stage 15 last year. They are tackling it from the harder west side, which averages 9.9% gradient for 8.5kms, but they first half is the hardest, averaging 11.6% for 4.5kms, hitting max gradients of 22%. It eases back just a little for the rest of the climb, but still averages 8.9% for the last 3kms. 

15kms of a descent is followed by a run along the Rhone valley until the 131.1km mark where they climb the short and easy Cote de Jongieux (3.9kms at 4.2%) and very soon afterwards start the final, brutal climb of the day, the Mont du Chat. We saw just how hard this climb was in the Dauphiné, it's a real back-breaker at 10.3% average for 8.7kms, hitting 12% in several places and a max of 14%. 

12kms of a crazy, wild, dangerous descent, a little bump up at the bottom, then it's more or less flat for the last 7kms, but the road rises gently for the last 5kms, getting a little bit steeper in the last kilometre, but it's a pretty gentle slope to the line of around 1%. It is an incredibly twisty last 3kms though with lots of roundabouts, and sharp left and right turns. The finishing straight is 550m long though so still plenty of time to line up the sprint if it's a small group comes to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

This could be the first really big day for both the GC and the KOM. I think the riders who really have their eyes on the KOM prize will have been hiding away today and saving the legs for the brute of a day they have ahead. There are 70pts potentially available out on the roadbut significantly, the two HC climbs of the Col de La Biche and Grand Colombier come with less than 100kms gone and should be snapped up by the break. The final HC points on the Mont du Chat could be taken by the GC men, but a strong break with a strong climber could well take the points there too.

And the rider I'm hoping is up there tomorrow in the break and possibly going for solo victory on the Mont du Chat is Rafal Majka. He should be well suited to the profile and I think he could well accelerate away from his companions in the Mont du Chat if they still have a big enough lead. Bora probably thought they had the Green in the bag, that's now history, so I think they will now be going after the Polka Dots. Majka is high up on the GC, but maybe he should give up on that as he's not going to finish in the top 3 here, no one remembers you if you finish 7th or 10th, everyone will remember a three-time winner of the KOM jersey. 

Pierre Rolland is sure to fancy a go on this, he may not make it to the top of the Mont du chat in the lead, but he could have taken the two HC climbs before it. He had a go when the road tilted up today to stretch the legs, but I think tomorrow is the day where we will see him really go for it. 

And if they go, and if Thibaut Pinot really has his eyes on the prize, then he has to go too. I think he has had his eye on this stage so far in this race and has been taking it easy, waiting to pounce. He's not a great price though at just 8/1 and if he is with some good descenders going over the top of the Mont du Chat I think he might struggle to stay with them, it's a really horrible descent and he's not renowned as being one of the best descenders in the peloton. He might collect lots of points, but I'm not backing him for the stage this time. 

Robert Gesink was very active today too, he was one I had in mind for this stage, but he made a big effort today and I can't see him going up the road again. 

And there are loads of other guys like Darwin Atapuma for UAE Emirates who could fancy it today, he'll surely be given the nod to give it a go on a tough stage like this. Ulissi was in the break today, Atapuma was able to sit in and take it easy. Johan Esteban Chaves is nearly 3 mins down on GC now and may well have lost his GC chances, but a climber like him will surely be licking his lips at the chance to take on the climbs they face on this stage. 

Thomas de Gendt might try again, he was active today but didn't quite make the big move, a long hard day like this will be something he'll enjoy. Lilian Calmejane had a tough day today, I can't see him going up the road again, same with Barguil, although he went in pursuit of the KOM points 

But honestly, I'm almost at a no-bet sort of mood for this stage - the GC men are surely going to push it on this stage early - the double climb of the Col de Biche and Grand Colombier will surely see Sky and BMC try to strip out all the hangers-on and lighten the group way down to just the key riders. If BMC are feeling strong they might try to put Sky in trouble and isolate Froome, then TT it along the 30km flat run to the Mont du Chat, in revenge for the Dauphiné.

Easier said then done of course, but I think there are definitely some chinks in the armour of Sky that could be explotied if some of the other teams gang up on them. And of course the opposite could happen, Sky could look to isolate Porte again, although I would be astonished if he was to be caught out for a second time on a stage like this and miss a move over the top and down to the valley by Sky. 

The other problem I have is who wins if it does come down to a GC battle up and over the Chat - none of them are renowned sprinters, so we'll be treated to a battle possibly between the likes of Porte, Froome, Bardet and co. fighting it out down the descent and in the finishing straight. Porte did a fantastic 'TT' to hold the gap in the valley on the final stage of the Dauphiné, holding the gap at around a minute against a group of riders up ahead. If he can attack this time on the Chat and get a small 20-30" gap over the top, he has a 10 minute descent followed by a 13km TT to the finish, he could well hang on.

But that could also be said of Froome and someone like Fuglsang or Bardet who would charge down that descent and could build a little gap. I don't think the likes of Quintana, Contador, Martin or Meintjes would be able to stay away, unless they had a lead of over 30" starting the descent and that's not going to be easy. One rider I'd like to see sticking with the GC men is Jarlinson Pantano, he could have a good chance on this finish, he'd have one of the better sprints of the GC group. He was looking after Contador today and pulling on the final climb, if he sees Contador is safe coming to the finale, I think Pantano could have a chance at the finish. 

So I am publishing this preview early. I don't have a strong opinion yet on tomorrow's stage I'm afraid, but I will endeavour to try to look at prices later when they are out and add an update tomorrow morning. For now, I'd say Majka is one I'd like in the locker, along with Atapuma and Pantano.  

Update - 09:44:

So I've been thinking about it and looked at the prices and I'm happy to have some money on Atapuma, Majka and Pantano still. Majka is a bit more risky I think as he is now so high up the GC it will be hard for him to get away, but the points available on the top of the Mont du Chat might tempt him in to a late attack. Pantano is an ok price at 50/1, as is Atapuma. I really can't call any of the others with confidence, Bardet might go well as it's the AG2R home region, Aru might go well as he was first over the Chat last time in the Dauphiné, Martin could win a sprint if it comes to it. What I am going to do though is have a speculative bet that the winning margin is 1" or less with Paddy Power, the opposite to yesterday.. It's possible we get a similar situation to the Dauphiné where a group of the strongest GC men come to the finish together to fight it out, and the 7/2 on that happening was too big to ignore. Some matchbets added too below.

Recommendations: 

0.3pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 50/1

0.3pts each-way on Jarlinson Pantano at 50/1

0.5pts each-way on Rafal Majka at 22/1

Winning margin less than 1" - 1pt at 7/2 with PP

Matchbets

Brice Feillu to beat Edwardo Sepulveda - 2pts at 5/6 with PP

Bennett to beat Latour and Porte to beat Quintana - 2pts on the double at 7/4 with PP

Add in Atapuma to beat Cummings to make it a treble at 2.58/1 with Pp - 2pts on that too