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Published on Friday, 07 July 2017 21:50

TDF 2017 Stage 8

Dole to Station des Rousses  

Saturday 8th July, 187kms

This looks like a stage that a lot of the breakaway riders will have marked with a big red X on their roadbooks, it looks tailor-made for a break to fight out the victory on a lumpy day that will be hard for the chase to control. 

Well we had the first battle on the hills with the ascent to La Planche des Belles Filles. and what has it told us? Well, maybe not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things as it was such as short climb, the battle only really raged for the last 3kms. BMC stupidly wasted a lot of energy on a day when they didn't need to do the pulling for 130kms, especially as Porte made no effort to go after a big danger like Aru when he had the chance and couldn't drop Froome either when he did make a small effort later on. 

Top marks go to Aru and Dan Martin. Aru for having the balls I said he had in my preview of the stage and attacking at the perfect moment, but not only that, having the power and speed to stay away when many lesser guys would have been reeled in (like Yates' attack was). He was impressive and has been slashed in to 4/1 or so now to take the race. As Froome said afterwards though " we won't be giving him that much space again". Dan Martin also showed his power, not only in responding to Froome's attack immediately, but also to ride away from the rest on the finishing slope to snatch 10" to move him to just 25" behind Froome. He's right in this race too, but will need a minute probably on Froome going in to the final TT to stand a chance of winning this, so a lot of work still to do. 

Froome attacked, he put some in trouble, but his main rivals stayed with him comfortably. He was able to go again though at the finish to take 3rd to steal a little time off his other rivals. Porte seemed to be unsure of what to do (yet again) and didn't really attack like we were hoping and expecting, but he did finish ahead of most of the other GC guys. Bardet was comfortable and present in the right moves, all bar the very steep final section, but we'll forgive him that. He looked very good and is definitely in with a podium shout still. 

Simon Yates was impressive, wasn't able to go with the sharper accelerations though and if there are repeated attacks like that on a longer climb later in the race he could struggle. Alberto Contador was dropped by the initial acceleration, but then if you look at the footage of the chase behind it was Contador who pulled Yates, Quintana and co. back up to the front guys with an impressive surge. He went to the front but then Martin went over the top and he wasn't able to stay with him. Quintana was the big disappointment, to fail on the first stage like this, but like Contador (and thanks to Contador) he limited his time loss to just 34". It's too early to be writing off the Colombian, but on this first test it would seem there are a lot of guys in better shape than him. Esteban Chaves was also a disappointment, losing 2 minutes, but I'm not entirely surprised. 

Honourable mentions too for Rigoberto Uran, Louis Meintjes and Rafal Majka. Uran was a major surprise in 7th, let's hope he keeps it up and mounts a challenge, it would be good to see. What it might mean though is that it could scupper Rolland's chances of the KOM jersey if Uran starts a GC challenge, he will be needed to look after him. Rafal Majka finished 40" down, unable to go with the first acceleration and unable to mount a challenge at the finish, maybe that might be a sign for him to go for KOM rather than yellow.

As for teams? Well BMC worked very hard for nought as they say, but it was good I suppose to see them show they mean business. Also, it was good to see Roche and Caruso finish so high up in the top 20, Porte will need their legs and support later in the race. Sky took over then, but interestingly Henao was not able to increase his effort to close down the gap on Aru, and Landa didn't take a turn at all. Astana saw Fuglsang hand over the GC leadership duties to Aru, he was unable to go with the attacks and lost 1'07", the rest of the team were miles back. AG2R had Bardet, Latour, Frank and Bakelants quite high up, they are looking ok too. Dan Martin was totally on his own for Quickstep, but we knew that was going to be the case coming in, it's a team built around Kittel. 

Stage 7 Review

Wow, Wow, Wow! I don't know how he got there, or how they decided that he was the winner, but Marcel Kittel got up to do the business for us in a crazy photo-finish situation with Edvald Boasson Hagen of all people. What an incredible job by Van Rensburg and EBH to almost take the win, Van Rensburgs leadout put all the sprinter's teams to shame and EBH almost took it. I don't know how they made a decision based on the photos we've seen on the finish.

But it meant a winner for us, and it's just as well as the mess that was behind them saw all sorts of weird finishing positions, screwing up our matchbets by one each. Arnaud Démare was way down in 11th, not even in the top 10, and that rubbish performance cost us the second matchbet, the other three won. Michael Matthews, who I knew was too big at 40/1 landed the 3rd spot on the podium. I'm bloody annoyed about that, I knew he was starting to click and shouldn't have deserted him.

Instead I stuck with Bouhanni, who once again sprinted like a newbie to the game. Very poor from him again. And Kristoff and Degenkolb were next, Kristoff maintaining his consistency and Degenkolb is starting to get closer. Greipel was also disappointing for his followers down in 9th, and that poor result bust the first matchbet as Groenewegen beat him. But Groenewegen did the business again by landing the 4th to 9th place bets at least. So overall, if you got on Groenewegen in-play we came out 0.4pts on top, otherwise a small 1.8pt loss.  

The Route

A stage which heads south for most of the day until they reach the Cote de Viry after 138kms, then does a u-turn and starts heading north-east for the last 50kms. The first 28kms are flat until they reach Arbois, but from there the road starts to rise up, and rolls along, climbing gently for more or less the next 67kms until they reach the Col de la Joux, a Cat 3 of 6.1kms at 4.7%. 

Down in to the valley then on a 30km descent that takes them trough Saint Lupicin.and after 131kms they start on the Cote de Viry, a Cat 2 climb of 7.6kms at 5.2%. It could be where we start to see the first of the spits happening in the break, as the strong men start to push on. After a brief descent the road kicks up again before a longer descent takes them through Saint Claud and to the foot of the final climbs.

The final climb, the Côte de la Combe de Laisia Les Molunes actually tops out with 12kms to go, but then they face a rolling run along a plateau for the last 12kms, with a little section at 6.1% with 5.5kms to go that could see the final attack come from the break, or peloton. But before that they have to tackle the Côte de la Combe de Laisia Les Molunes, surely one of the longest climb names in cycling! It's a Cat 1, as it is 11.7kms long, and comes so late in the stage, but really it's not that hard, averaging just 6.4%. There are lower gradient parts that drag down the average, but it generally averages a steady 7% or so for most of the climb.  

The climb tops out for the KOM purposes with 12kms to go, then it actually descends for 6.5kms before climbing gently for the last 5.5kms, with the last 1500m averaging only about 1% in a gentle pull up to the finish in Station des Rousses. 

Contenders and Favourites

This does look like a day for the breakaway for me, so, a week in to the race, it's time to play Breakaway Lottery for the first time! It's going to be a real battle I think over the first 28kms to get in the break, one of the few stages where it might be worth tuning in from the start, every team is going to want to have men in the break. The uncategorised hill that starts after 28kms looks like a Cat 3 type climb to me, 10kms at about 3.4% average, so enough for a strong break to get away and build a lead on a steady-riding peloton.

Then the road rolls and rises for the next 60kms or so, allowing them to potentially build up a lead of 8-10 minutes - with the tough stage to Chambery the next day the GC teams might down tools up until the final climb. If there is an outsider in the break that could take yellow, I'm not sure Sky would mind that, but at the same time they are probably thinking at the moment they want to be the first team since Faema in 1970 to keep the yellow jersey in the team from start to finish when Eddy Merckx and Italo Zilioli held it from start to finish. 

Paddy Power came out with their prices very early during stage 7 and they priced it up like it was just a tough sprinters stage, with Michael Matthews and Fabio Felline as the favourites. I can't agree with that, unless of course they get in the break and manage to hang in there to fight out the finish. But if they don't make the break, I don't think they'll be fighting it out for the win, as I said already I think the break wins tomorrow. Sure, they could both go on the attack in the break, Felline probably more so than Matthews, but they then have to stay with the better climbers of an 11km climb near the finish, and I'm not sure they will be doing that. 

So it's crystal ball time then, who do we think will get in the breakaway? Well I think we could have lots looking to get in it, and it really is sticking a pin in the paper time. Thomas Voeckler kicked things off on stage 5 to La Planche, I'd expect him to try his luck again on a profile like this, but he won't be winning, his abilities are pretty limited these days. It will be interesting to see what Pierre Rolland does now, there's a Cat 3, 2 and 1 on this stage so he might go in pursuit of the KOM jersey points, as well as the stage, but with Uran sitting just outside the top 10 now and Talansky in 19th,they might be forced to change tact and look after him. I've been told that Uran will do his own thing though, he doesn't need guys looking after him, so Rolland might still have the freedom to go. 

Instead though I'd like to have another Cannondale man onside for the break, and if not the break, for the uphill sprint finish.. and that man is the man who finished 5th on stage 3 to Longwy behind Sagan and Dan Martin - Alberto Bettiol. Bettiol is a quality rider who has finished 4th in the GP Quebec behind Sagan and ahead of Matthews on that uphill finish, If he can stay in there to the finish he could have a good chance at a nice 150/1

And there are just so many to pick from after that. Thomas De Gendt has to be a prime pick, he has been on the attack on stages 4 and 5, he clearly is feeling good and has been getting some good training in up the road. He's had a few days off now  and I think this is the kind of stage for him - a rolling stage where he can get the diesel engine going and then the final climb where he can attack and get a gap and hold it to the finish. 

PP have Steve Cummings as their joint favourite at 10/1 and I think that's just crazy, but they are obviously worried he will have targeted stages like this and are not taking any chances. He will have to get his ass off the tail end of the peloton though and get up the road, and that price is stupid if you ask me. Even if he gets in a big break that looks like making it, he'll probably still be 6-8/1 in play so you'd be better off waiting and seeing if he gets in the break. 

Mickael Delage has also been on the attack for FDJ and he sits pretty low down on the GC now, he could well fancy it again - maybe he can be used as a bridge for Pinot on the final climb if Pinot was to attack early on it and try to get across to the break. If not, Delage would have a chance himself if he can hang in there on the final climb, he'd have one of the better sprints. 

Laurent Pichon could fancy it for Fortuneo, he's had some good results this year for them on mixed terrain, he doesn't mind a breakaway and has a good finishing kick on him too. At the price, he's worth a dabble. His team-mate Pierre-Luc Perichon has been on the attack a few times this week already, and this will surely be a stage he has his eye on too. He hails from Bourg-en-Bresse, just 120kms from the Station des Rousses and he is going to have family and friends at the finish. He had some great results this year too, including 4th in the National Champs and a win in a very mountainous stage of the Tour de Savoie Mont Blanc, beating Egan Bernal at the finish, a decent yard-stick.

I think the 30-year old will have ridden the climb to Station des Rousses many times and we also saw him last year in the big break that went on the stage that started in Bourge-en-Bresse and finished in Culoz that had a similar profile to this, over the Grand Colombier and up the Lacets de Grand Colombier. I am excited about his chances, I hope he gives us a run for our money. 

Diego Ulissi at 18/1 could be one for this stage for two reasons - firstly, he could get in the break, he'll know he has a good chance if he gets to the top of that final climb with the break, he could attack on the 6% ascent with less than 5kms to go. Also, if he's with the GC men and they reel in the break, he has a chance of hanging in there and attacking late or winning the uphill sprint. 

AG2R have a few cards to play on this stage, Jan Bakelants has been very active so far in this race, almost as if he's trying to punish himself for the silly comments he made about shagging the podium girls. He is sure to try on a stage like this and is strong at the finish. Oliver Naesen and Cyril Gautier are two more who could go on the attack, Naesen will struggle on the climb if the pace is really high but will be very strong on that finishing run-in if he can stay with the leaders. 

Alexis Vuillermoz is another who could get away in the break and would have a great chance on this finish, he's as big as 100/1 with Skybet and that's worth a few pennies. Maybe Movistar will let some of their riders off the leash now that Valverde is gone and Quintana doesn't look like a GC contender, and if so, Carlos Betancur, Jasha Sutterlin, Jesus Herrada or Daniele Bennati could give it a go, Betancur at 50/1 will have backers I'm sure. 

Liliane Calmejane will be popular I'd imagine tomorrow but I think he might wait for Sunday. Tony Gallopin could fancy it too tomorrow but again, he might be waiting for Sunday. Michael Albasini could be another one who will fancy tomorrow's stage, we could see him and another Orica man get in the break and try to stay away, and if they don't get in the break he could well have a chance on this tough finish if it becomes a GC finish. He's worth having onside at 50/1. 

And the list goes on and on - the way the prices are shows just how impossible it is to predict the outcome of this stage, all bar Steve Cummings are over 10/1 (and the fact he is under 10/1 is frankly fucking ludicrous) and there are only about 4-5 riders under 20/1. If it comes back together for a sprint finish amongst the GC men I couldn't even begin to say who'll win, all depends on how hard they rode it up the climb and whether they shed the sprinter types or not. 

So I'm going to scatter a bunch of breakaway candidates and hope for the best, not a day to go crazy on any bets, even the match bets are a minefield. Good luck!

Update: 09:00 - Added a Gesink matchbet to beat Navarro, Gesink has beaten Navarro on more than 2/3rds of the times they have raced together, makes the 8/11 look attractive. Also added the winning margin will be more than 2" with PP at 15/8 as I think a solo rider might win.. Also added 'Any other rider in Yellow' from this market on Paddy Power at 9/1 as the break winner could possibly go in to yellow.

Recommendations:

0.25pts each-way on Pierre-Luc Perichon at 250/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Diego Ulissi at 16/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Michael Albasini at 50/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 100/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 28/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 40/1 with PP 

0.25pts each-way on Alberto Bettiol at 150/1 with PP

Winning margin to be more than 2" - 2pts at 15/8 with PP

Matchbets

Chaves to beat Kreuziger and Ulissi to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 11/8 with Will Hill  

Gesink to beat Navarro - 3pts at 8/11 with 365