Details

Published on Monday, 03 July 2017 21:04

TDF 2017 Stage 4

Mondorf Les Bains to Vittel

Tues 4th July, 207.5kms 

A trip down through the north-eastern corner of France on another of those boring 200km stages that will inevitably end in a sprint finish in the spa town of Vittel. But who's going to have the bottle for the sprint? It'll all become clear around 4.30pm.

Ok, enough with the bad Vittel jokes, but I'm just trying to find some ways to make this stage interesting.. It's a flat run for almost the whole stage, with just mile after mile of long straight roads. Something a little bit interesting about the stage I suppose is that the Schleck brothers come from Mondorf les Bains, or Munneref as it is known to the Luxembourgians. 

Like Gilbert with Verviers, this stage will be a tribute to the winner of the 2010 Tour de France, and three-time stage winner Andy, as well as his brother Frank who finished 3rd overall in 2011 and won two stages in his career. 

The road gets a little bumpy in the last 70kms and they even go over a Cat 4 climb 37kms from the finish, but it's a pretty non-descript and boring run to Vittel. We do get a little rise up with 3kms to go and for the last kilometre, but it's only a gradient of 1.7%, so the sprinters should still fight it out. 

Having said all that though, there is the potential that the winds could cause trouble on the run through the countryside of the Meurthe et Moselle, it can really whip up here and we've seen stages affected by the winds around here before. 

Stage 3 Review

So we got our breakaway, it wasn't up to much and the peloton kept it on a very tight leash to set up the finish in Longwy. And what a finish it was too, with Peter Sagan proving once again what an unbelievable talent he is, bossing the front, pulling out his foot out of the pedal and still managing to win. Dan Martin was very impressive, putting out some serious watts to take 3rd and Michael Matthews sandwiched between them was unlucky not to get up and beat Sagan. It was a crazy, frantic finish, one in which the GC men took over and Nicholas Roche and Richie Porte caused all sorts of problems, with Richie giving it a go with about 500m to go.

Arnaud Démare got me excited though entering the last 1500m, he was well positioned and responding well to the surges at the front. I think we were unlucky with him, Porte's surge put him in to trouble and he had to fight really hard to get back, he did superbly well I thought to finish 6th in that company, he was surrounded by some of the best puncheurs, climbers and GC men, no other sprinter bar Matthews were anywhere to be seen. At least he won his matchbet, although the others were torpedoed by a poor showing by Albasini down in 51st, he was a lot further back than I expected. Colbrelli beat Swift for us. 

The battle for White is well and truly on, with Buchman, Meintjes and Latour all finishing in the first group, but Adam Yates lost 8", he must have got caught behind a split or something. Contador, Porte, Aru, Froome and Thomas were all well to the fore though too. 

The Route

They leave Mondorf les bains and head south for 207kms, with barely anything worth talking about for the whole stage. It gets a little bit interesting with 50kms to go with the intermediate sprint, and then the Cat 4 climb up to the Col des Trois Fontaines. The climb comes with 37kms to go and although it's short at 1.9kms, it's tough at 7.4% average. From there they roll downhill for approx 10kms and then it's a flat run to the finish for the last 26kms. 

The road does climb gently from 5kms to 3kms to go at a gradient of 2%, then dips down from 3kms to 1km to go in a stretch that is sure to be done at a brutally fast pace as the sprinter's teams battle for position. The last kilometre slopes gently to the line at a gradient of 1.7%, so it should probably still end in a sprint finish, but maybe one for the very strong sprinters. From the 6km to go to 2.5kms to go the road is pretty straight and flat, then curves left with 2.5kms to go, then a sharp, tight bend with 1500m to go and another with about 1200m to go but the last 1200m are pretty straight with just a little kink in the road with about 500m to go. 

The Contenders:

The question is, can anyone stop Marcel Kittel? He was just so strong in the end on stage 2 that although he was way back in around 15th place with just 200m to go he surfed on to Colbrelli's wheel and then burst past him in the last 50m to take the stage. His leadout train faltered, but then again so did everyone else's really, all the sprinters were left to their own devices in the last 300m and it was quite messy seeing as there are so many good sprinters here. Trentin was close enough to help Kittel out a little bit though, he could be seen celebrating in the background even before Kittel got his hands in the air. 

They surely will do a better job here this time though - I think all the sprinters teams were confused and disturbed by the way the finish turned out on stage 2, with the break still being clear with 4kms to go - no one wanted to take it up, they were all looking at each other and the pace wasn't as furious as it could have been. As a result, GC men were in the mix, riders were coming up on all sides and others were being shuffled back and losing position. I think some teams like Lotto Soudal and Quickstep will take more control in the run-in here and we should see a more traditional leadout battle.

The big battle will be to get in to those two right hand turns with 1500m to go at, or very near the front. With the final bend coming 1200m from the line, sprinters trains will be in full flight, it should be where leadout man 3 is giving it his all to take it to about 700m to go to hand over to no. 2 to tow Kittel to the 300m to go sign. From there he should finish it off. He took it easy today at the finish to save energy. 

Arnaud Démare was very close on stage 2, he was boxed in a little when the sprint started in earnest, but got out on to Kittel's wheel expertly and was gaining on him but the line came too soon. If he can get a cleaner run and stick to Kittel's wheel again he might just get closer to him next time. He did very well today to be in that company at the finish and take the 6th place, but you wonder what sort of effect it might have had on him, could he be fatigued tomorrow after that effort? It was only 1500m though I suppose you could counter, less than a 5 min effort, so he might be ok.

He might have a chance though if Kittel is possibly a bit deflated after all the pressure of wanting to win that stage that passed through Germany, he was overcome with emotion and relief at the finish after stage 2, he said after it was the biggest target for him in this Tour and maybe he might be vulnerable here. 

André Greipel was 3rd best in stage 2, so he clearly is going alright, and his team looked the best organised in the leadout in Liege. Well they did a few kilometres out, they then fell apart and got swamped so Greipel was left to fend for himself. He just didn't have the speed to beat Kittel and was passed by Démare in the dying strides, but he could be close again if Lotto can get themselves organised. 

Mark Cavendish surprised me with his 4th Sunday, I didn't expect him to be so close to the podium, especially as I had layed him at 2/1 to finish in the top 3 with 10kms to go! He did very well, he followed Kittel through at one point, but then veered over to the right as Démare took his place behind Kittel. He looked absolutely on the limit though and he reflected afterwards that he was very pleased with that result, he didn't expect to be winning in this tour. I think he will struggle to win, a third 200km + stage in a row could be very tiring for him with his lack of racing in his legs. 

Dylan Groenewegen was held in the sprint on Sunday, as I warned, it's very risky backing him at stupid prices like 5/1 when he has never won a race of this grade before and he's up against some of the best sprinters in the world. He looks like a 4th to 9th place bet again to me unless we see him break in to the top 3, despite some fancying him for today he was way down in 151st, over 3 mins down.

Nacer Bouhanni raced a strange race on Sunday, he was on Sagan's wheel on the left of the road as Sagan burst through and seemed to be going well, but then suddenly he stopped pedalling, almost as if he either cramped up or had some mechanical issue or something. I found in an interview after the race that they weren't happy with the way Sagan implanted himself between Laporte, his leadout man, and Bouhanni..

Laporte was just starting his leadout, he was listening to hear from Bouhanni, but he wasn't behind him, it was Sagan. As he didn't want to leadout Sagan he stopped riding and instead Sagan took it up early and stalled soon after in the headwind. As BouBou put it " by then the second wave had come past and it was too late to get going again. Also, they lost Lemoine and Claeys in the crash so they were light on manpower, otherwise they could have done a lot better. Add in the fact that Bouhanni hails from Epinal, just 45kms from Vittel and I think Bouhanni has a big chance of a big result tomorrow and the 25/1 is crying out to be backed. 

Sonny Colbrelli did well on stage 2, at one point he seemed to be leading up the centre of the road, but got swamped and ended up in 6th place. I think he too will do exceptionally well to break on to the podium on a flat sprint like this one. Ben Swift surprised me in 7th, but I think that was a bit of an anomaly with the messy finish, I don't expect him to be in the top 6 here on this faster, flatter sprint. Matthews, Degenkolb, McLay and Kristoff never really got in a blow Sunday, I don't think it will be any different here, although Matthews pulled off a big sprint to take 2nd today, he'll have his backers tomorrow I would think. 

I think this is another penalty kick for Kittel though, Quickstep didn't seem to burn too many matches today, there weren't a lot of his helpers around at the finish bar the two puncheurs/climbers Gilbert and Martin. Trentin, Sabbatini and Bauer came home together over 2 mins down, I think they have their eyes on tomorrow's stage instead. The 5/4 on Betfair looks good, he's 8/11 with Paddy Power. I think it will be tight again between Démare, Greipel and Bouhanni, maybe even Cav, but at the prices I think we have to take Bouhanni each-way at the prices. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Kittel at 5/4 on Betfair or evens with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 25/1 with various

Matchbets

Bouhanni to beat Groenewegen - 2pts at 5/4

Aru to beat Bardet - 2pts at 3/4 with Will Hill

None other appeal to me, they are all so close..   Like Trentin vs EBH - Trentin beat him Sunday as it was a messy sprint and he was near the front.. If he does a proper leadout, then he should fade out of it and EBH might be challenging for a top 10.. so hard to call it.. and loads of others are just coin tosses.. Swift Vs Pasqualon, Cavendish Vs Sagan.. either of the two of them could have a great sprint/shit sprint, you just don't know.