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Published on Thursday, 07 September 2017 22:18

TDF 2016 Stage 21

Montgeron to Paris

Sunday 23rd July, 105kms

The final act, the final sprint. The British and Germans have dominated on the Champs Élysées in recent years, with Gert Steegmans, the Belgian, the last man to strike a blow for the rest of the world in 2008. 

We've had Greipel, Greipel, Kittel, Kittel, Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish in that order working back from last year, with André Greipel landing the hat-trick last year ahead of Sagan and Kristoff. Can anyone muscle in on the German dominance this year? It' seemed unlikely a few days ago given the dominance enjoyed by Marcel Kittel in this year's sprints, he has been simply on another planet. But he's out now, it's up to André Greipel to keep his, and Germany's run going. 

And so we come to the end of another Tour, a Tour that looked like it was going to be between Porte and Froome, but we were denied that showdown very early in the race with Porte's crash on the Mont du Chat. But what we missed out on with Porte's absence was more than made up for by the challenges from Aru, Bardet, Uran and Martin - they  put it up to Froome and made it one of the most closely-run races in the Tour's recent history. But why was that? Well the boring route had part to play in that, only 3 summit finishes meant that time gaps between the top rivals were small.

Also, if you take out the opening TT, Uran would have been leading going in to the final TT. Froome has not been his dominant self, he has been unable to make one attack that has lasted in the mountains, and didn't take a mountain stage. But his rivals were unable to mount a serious challenge to him, so all he had to do was ride defensively. The Skybots did their job and ground the opposition in to the ground, and perhaps his biggest potential danger later in the race, Aru, faded away. The team are blaming bronchitis, and if that is the case, it's a shame, as he at least might have put him under pressure in the final two mountain stages.

Uran was a massive surprise challenger, he traded for £100 at 1000 on Betfair at one point and traded as low as 7/1, and has finished 2nd in the race. Bardet tried his best but just wasn't good enough, but good enough for 3rd and a 25/1 e/w payout. Martin tried his hardest too, and in the end, maybe the crash was immaterial as he lost time to the top guys in stages 16, 17 and 18. Maybe it was the effects of the crash, and maybe he'd have been 4th in the GC only for it, but 4th may as well be 40th from a betting point of view. 

Stage 20 Review

That was pretty shit wasn't it. I mentioned Bodnar was a good bet at 200/1, I have no idea why I didn't back him at that crazy price, but hindsight is 20-20 as they say. And as for our picks, will we ever catch a break with crashes in this Tour?? First Castroviejo couldn't even go 20" without crashing and ruining his chances, and then Roglic had a mechanical or a crash or something and had to change his bike. He lost by 49" in the end, but was already behind at the first time-check it seemed. Froome traded as low as 1.4 to take it with some big money swinging around but suddenly Bodnar was back in to 1.2 as it looked like he would hang on.. and hang on he did, by just 1". 

It was very unlucky for Kwiatkowski backers, 1 second is a horrible margin to win or lose a time trial by. Uran was far better than we expected, sorry about that one, was more of how terrible Bardet was too though, he hung on to his 3rd place for us by the skin of his teeth, 1" also the number of the day for him. Mikel Landa might regret taking a leisurely sip out of his bottle on the descent. It's good to see the Frenchman on the podium though instead of another Skybot, that is, unless Landa attacks him tomorrow to try to win the intermediate sprint. uran's surprisingly good TT was good news for the 'winning margin' bet though, coming in a winner now at just 54" to Uran. 

The Route

The usual procession in to Paris, a short run of just 105kms, 58kms of which are doing the laps around the Champs. They start down in Montgerons, south-east of the City and after a little zig-zag for 20kms, where we will no doubt get the obligatory champagne glass photo ops etc, they then head north and cut through the Peripherique. After 45kms they enter the circuit and do 9 laps of the 6.5kms circuit, before the final charge up the cobbles of the most famous finishing straight in cycling.  All you need to know really is that you need to be in the first 10 coming in to that final chicane and right turn on to the finishing straight, but you don't necessarily have to be in the first three, you can still come from 4th or 5th place in the last 200m like Greipel and Kittel have done in the past. 

Contenders and Favourites

One thing to watch out for tomorrow though, is that it could be a little wet in Paris.. there is the possibility of afternoon showers, and that might make the sprint a bit more of a lottery than it already is.

So who will win it in Kittel's absence then? Well if you are looking for horses for courses, it's hard to look past André Greipel - 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in recent years, he knows what it takes to get a result on the Champs. Lotto Soudal have not fired at all when it came to leadouts for sprints though and Greipel himself has been 'embarrassed' by his own performance. Can he turn it around on the final stage and get that win to keep the record going? It would have been very hard to beat Kittel, he'd come nowhere near him in previous sprints, but he now has a golden opportunity to take a stage.

Marcel Sieberg is going to be a big loss to him though in the leadout, and as strong as the other riders like Benoot, Gallopin and De Gendt have been, they really are not leadout men. But then today Greipel was one of the first dropped on the first climb and it was telling I think that Lotto put De Gendt and Gallopin in the break rather than working for Greipel, I think he's exhausted and they knew he wouldn't be winning the sprint. He rolled home near the back of the field. If he is as tired as I think he is, and if his leadout is as bad as I think it will be, then it might see him swamped and in a bad position coming in to the last 500m, will he have the power to overcome that deficit and get up on time like he did last year? I'm not sure, and with the possibility of rain as well, I am not interested in him at just 5/2. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen won brilliantly for us on Friday, his first TDF stage win in 6 years. He was just so powerful and confident he didn't even wait for the sprint, he just took off on his own with less than 2kms to go and there was no catching him. And I think that even if they went to a sprint he'd have won that too. He has a pretty excellent record on the Champs, he was 4th in 2015, beating Demare, Cavendish, Sagan, Dege and Matthews, and he was 4th also in 2016, just behind Greipel, Sagan and Kristoff, and in 2011 he was 2nd behind Cavendish. His powerful frame and high speed is perfect for this bumpy slog to the line, and he is sure to be close again this year. In fact, I'd have him as my favourite nearly for this, especially if the road is going to be wet. I think his leadout is better, and he is far stronger looking than Greipel. He is 4/1 with PP and that looks a pretty decent bet to me.

Dylan Groenewegen had issues in this stage last year too and finished down in 164th, but he was given the 0"00' time on PCS, suggesting that he had a crash late on and was given the same time as the winner, I can't remember or see anything that explains what happened. He has finished in 2nd, 3rd, 5th and two 6ths so far in the Tour and came close to beating Kittel in stage 11. He has a strong leadout, with some really good rouleurs to drag him in to position in the last kilometre, and if he can get in a good position coming in to the last 300m he has a chance of taking a very good result here I think, he would be one of those better suited by a wet road too I think. 

Alexander Kristoff has come close on the Champs before, finishing 2nd, 3rd twice and 6th, he led down the finishing straight last year until Greipel turned on the afterburners and shot past him in the last 100m. He has the power to take it up from a long way out on the Champs' bumpy, cobbled road and can drive hard while others trail in his wake. Last year though Greipel said that he knew there was a head-wind so he waited, whereas Kristoff took it up early. Greipel said they were a man short so he took Kristoff's wheel instead and that's what won it for him. I think Kristoff could well do something similar this year and be passed in the last 100m again by 2 or 3 guys, so he's a man for the 4th to 9th place bets.. 

Nacer Bouhanni hasn't got in a blow in this Tour at all, his leadout has been dreadful and he has looked uninterested and slow. Can he finally come alive on this most revered of stages? Interestingly, from what I could make out in Friday's stage, he was in the main peloton while Kristoff, Greipel and Groenewegen were being dropped, so maybe he's starting to feel a little better. He's not got to Paris before so hard to know how he'll go on the Champs, but I'm not sure he'll be great on this finish, I think he will be in a bad position hitting the home straight and will struggle to get traction.

John Degenkolb has been hit and miss this Tour, and incredibly he has finished 2nd six times in stages of the Tour, but has never won a stage yet. He has a poor record on the Champs too though and I'm not touching him either this year I think, I can see him finishing 7th or 8th maybe

Michael Matthews has the honour of riding down the Champs Élysées in Green, but can he cap off a memorable Tour with victory here? He has been riding superbly well, climbing better than any sprinter, and possibly even better than Sagan had he been here. He is still looking very strong here and the team are riding on a crest of a wave with two jerseys in their hands, and with Curvers, Ten Dam, Geschke, Arndt, Teunnisen and Timmer to lead him out, Matthews could be one of the first on to the Champs. If Arndt can drag him to 300m to go he has a great chance of taking a podium position.

One that interests me at a big price though is Fabio Sabatini. Brian Holm was quoted today as having said that "Kittel's lead-out man will get a chance to sprint tomorrow" and that leadout man is Sabatini. He was super strong for Kittel all during this race and he deserves a chance to go for it himself. He'll have the powerful Vermote, Stybar and Bauer working for him and if he can hold back his sprint for as late as possible he could just take a podium spot. He's 80/1 with 365 and also I fancy him at 11/8 to beat Cimolai if he is sprinting. 

And then you have all the rest - Ben Swift, Sonny Colbrelli, Dion Smith, Davide Cimolai and Nikias Arndt - maybe Matthews might leadout Arndt and give him a shot for all his work, he was unlucky in the stage on Friday and did a really good TT, he seems to have good legs.. but they might be a bit dead after all that effort of the last two days.  

I also actually think a break has a slightly better chance of making it this year with the reduced number of sprint teams that will be pulling.. it could be a bit more chaotic than usual and some late breaks or solo guys might try a go off the front, and the right guys with the right timing might have a small chance. Jens Keukeleire impressed me Friday, he was very strong, he's the kind of guy I could see take a flyer late on. He was 500/1 with PP when they opened, he was quickly cut to 80s, but I managed to get 500 on Betfair for a small amount. Not only could be take a flyer, but he hasn't a bad sprint on him either if he manages to get himself in the mix. You can still get 120 on Betfair, he has been chopped to 66/1 with most of the bookies now. 

Thomas Voeckler is almost guaranteed to try an attack on his last trip around Paris, but he's not going to win, but someone like Nils Pollitt or Tony Martin might go for Katusha, or Maciej Bodnar or Marcus Burghardt might chance their arm for Bora, Bodnar is clearly flying at the moment. He's 150/1 with PP, but there's 200 available on Betfair. 

Stefan Kung, Sylvain Chavanel, Daryl Impey or Steve Cummings could all try too, although Steve Cummings really looks like he couldn't be arsed any more. 

It looks most likely to be a sprint again though and I want to have Groenewegen and EBH onside, I can't trust Greipel as good as he is on the Champs, and Kristoff, Degenkolb and Bouhanni could be anywhere, Matthews too - he might not even sprint.. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 9/2 with Skybet

2pts win on EBH at 4/1 with PP

0.3pts win on Jens Keukeleire at 120 on betfair

0.2pts win on Maciej Bodnar at 200 on betfair

0.25pts each-way on Fabio Sabatini at 80/1 with Bet365

Match Bets 

Sabatini to beat Cimolai - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Groenewegen to beat Degenkolb and Bouhanni to beat Selig - 2pts at 9/10