Details

Published on Thursday, 20 July 2017 18:48

TDF 2016 Stage 19

Embrun to Salon de Provence

Friday 21st July, 220kms

A stage that finishes in Salon de Provence, a town where Nostradamus lived towards the end of his life.. With this being the longest stage of the race, starting off hilly but looking perfect for a sprinter at the finish, could he have predicted the winner??

The longest stage in the race at 220kms, it's going to be a tough day in the saddle so far in to the race, as they ride through the rolling hills of the Luberon, passing fields of Lavender and Olive trees. It's downhill in general all day, as they drop from 785m at the start to just 78m above sea level at the finish, as they head towards the coast and Marseille where the following day's stage starts. 

The stage starts in Embrun where a hilly TT started in the race in 2013, won by Chris Froome, 9" ahead of Alberto Contador. That stage finished in the town of Chorges, which they pass through after 18kms of this stage, a stage that is quite lumpy for most of the day, taking in three Cat 3 climbs along the way, but looks like it could well end in a bunch sprint. The break would have a chance too of course, many of the GC men will want an easy day with the crucial TT coming the next day in Marseille. 

Stage 18 Review

Well, not a lot happened, we ended up more or less where we started.. That's how it sort of looks like from the outside, but it did get a bit exciting for a while when it looked like Mikel Landa was going rogue and attacked off the front. But it all came back together again before he could take time.. Well I say 'all', but it was just Froome, Uran and Bardet that were left, Martin was dangling, Aru was out the back and Meintjes and Yates were in their own worlds of hurt behind too. 

A massive group of 54 riders broke away, including Bauke Mollema, several from Astana, Lotto, AG2R, UAE etc.. Among them were Thomas de Gendt and Tony Gallopin and they helped liven up the stage with key attacking moves. Darwin Atapuma went with one of the final big moves and eventually rode away from them all and looked to have the stage sewn up entering the last 4kms, but Warren Barguil came screaming out of the GC group and bridged and dropped him before he knew it. It was another stunning win for Barguil and crowned him as King of the Mountains in this Tour. He is like watching a reincarnated version of Richard Virenque at times, let's hope that's where the similarities end. 

So in the end Froome, Bardet and Uran fought out the finish between them, and surprisingly, Uran was ousprinted by both, with Bardet nabbing 3rd ahead of Froome to take 4 bonus seconds and lift him above Uran again on the GC.. Pretty confident now that the 25/1 e/w on Bardet will pay out, let's hope he makes it to Paris. Froome has done nothing really in this Tour, yet he's going to win it. He's been carried on the back of Kwiatkowski and Landa, his attack today was laughable too, it's just a pity his rivals were unable to break him. Uran was disappointing today again, at least Bardet and Martin attacked Froome, Uran just followed all day. It will take some extraordinary turn of events for Froome to lose now though, it's as good as done. 

As for our bets, well all the stage win bets bombed with the way the race turned out, but we had a cleansweep on the matchbets again which returned a 6.9pt profit, or a 2.5pt profit all in. 

The Route

They start in Embrun in the Departement of the Alpes de Haute Provence and it's a lumpy, rolling start to the day that sees them pass through Chorges after 18kms, the finish town of that hilly TT in 2013. After 21.3kms they take on the Cat 3 Col Lebraut (4.7kms at 6%) and just 10kms later the Cat 4 Cote de Breziers. (2.3kms at 5.8%). They crest an uncategorised climb of the Cote de Sarraut after 50kms and spend the next 40kms descending.

They continue to head south-west over rolling terrain past the intermediate sprint at Banon and dip down to Apt before climbing again over the Cat 3  Col du Pointu (5.8kms at 4.1%). From there it's just 45kms to the line, about 20kms of which are descending, with the last 20kms more or less flat. The last 2kms are downhill, making it a very fast finish to the stage. The last few kilometres are quite tricky though with a zig-zag with 1500m to go, a sharp right with 1100m to go, a sharp left with 500m to go and another sharp left with 400m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

As I said above, this looks like a stage for the breakaway, and I'd give it a pretty good chance of succeeding. The GC men will want an easy day, coming on the back of the two tough days in the Alps and with the crucial TT the very next day. There are a lot of tired bodies in the race now and the appetite to go in the break is limited to just the crazy few who still want to punish themselves.

And step forward, finally for me, Steve Cummings.. I know I've been slagging him off all race, but it's not slagging him personally, I've just been pissed off with the bullshit from the bookies, pricing him up at 8/1 for stages he hasn't a hope of winning. Hopefully I put a few of you off wasting your money on him so far. But this is his kind of stage I think. I thought he'd be about 8/1 again, but PP opened with him at 33/1, and then cut him to 25/1 and I've had some of that. I think finally he's worth having an interest in, as I think he will get in the break, and he'd have a chance of riding away in the closing kilometres. He tried today, but was never going to win, I think he saved his legs when he realised the group of climbers he was with. 

Another rider who springs to mind for this one too is Greg Van Avermaet as I think he'll like the profile and like the finish. He has been active but unlucky, but also must be very disappointed with how the stage to Rodez turned out and that he started his sprint too early in the finish of stage 16, he ended up just leading out Matthews again. I think he'll like the course as it's a lot of rolling hills, hills he doesn't mind at all, and he might be able to attack away on the Cat 3, but that comes with 45kms still to go so he needs to make sure that he companions are struggling before he goes, otherwise it will be better for him to sit in and wait for the sprint. He's 14/1 with PP, you might get better later on. 

Michael Matthews will be an interesting one, he doesn't have to go in chase of points anymore, all he has to do is stay upright all the way to Paris and he'll take the green jersey. So, he may not bother, he could save his legs, potter around the TT in Marseille and then try to go out in a blaze of glory on the Champs on Sunday against a drastically reduced field of sprinters - nothing better than winning on the Champs Élysées in green. Or he might see the break as a way of staying out of trouble, and possibly picking up another stage win.

Thomas de Gendt is sure to like this one again, as will Tiesj Benoot and Tony Gallopin, they are all keen to get in lots of breaks and this is a stage where they might be able to make it to the finish finally. Of the three, I'd fancy Benoot and Gallopin more I think for a late attack. Gallopin and De Gendt were in the break today though, so maybe Benoot was saving himself for this one. 

Jan Bakelants was busy earlier in the race but has disappeared a little lately as it got hillier, but he's still in just 25th in the GC so his legs are pretty good. On Wednesday he finished the Galibier stage in 41st, in a little group just 16 mins down, 17 mins ahead of the grupetto, and today he finished in 29th, just about 4 mins behind Barguil. I think he is in better shape than a lot of guys and this is the sort of stage he'll like. 100/1 with Ladbrokes is decent, he's just 40/1 with PP.

Tony Martin could also have a go on this stage, he's another who could be suited by the rolling terrain, and should be able to cope with the Cat 3 near the end, it averages just 4.1%. He struggles to get in to breaks with uphill starts sometimes, but if the break can go in the first 20kms here he'd have a chance of getting in. He's 80/1.

And now that Kittel has gone home, will some of the rest of the QS team have the freedom to go on the attack? Gianluca Brambilla has been practically anonymous in this race, which is disappointing, he might fancy it now, as could Jack Bauer or Fabio Sabatini now they have the freedom to do what they want. But more likely is Zdenek Stybar, who is more suited to this stage I think and this sort of finish. He finished 10th in Vittel and 10th in Rodez, he's going ok at the moment, he's worth a few pennies at 80/1

Others who are likely to go - Thomas Voeckler, looking for a stage win in his last TDF, Sylvain Chavanel, who has been probing without success, Thomas Degand of Wanty, Pierre-Luc Perichon, Yoann Offredo or Laurent Pichon of Fortuneo, Dimitri Claeys or Florian Senechal of Cofidis. Grega Bole has been so anonymous in this race I actually didn't even know he was racing here until today. We've not seen a sign of him all race, but maybe this could be a stage for him?

Matteo Bono still hasn't found what he's looking for in this race, the chance to go in a break.. We usually see him in at least one break in a Grand Tour, but he's probably just wishing it was Sunday, Bloody Sunday. Sorry.. I can never let a chance go for a few crap Bono puns. Will Astana send someone in the break again now that Aru is out of top 3 contention? They may do - and Andrei Grivko and Alexey Lutsenko are two possible candidates for them again.. Jens Keukeleire of Orica Scott also springs to mind as someone who might fancy getting up the road on a day like this, he has almost been anonymous so far in this race. 

So that's the break sorted then, the winner will probably come from that lot.. ;-) But there's also the chance that some of the sprinter's teams will want to take it to the finish. They won't have QuickStep to help them this time though, but Lotto-Soudal, LottoJumbo, Sunweb, Cofidis and Trek will probably be willing to pull to try to set up a sprint. 

André Greipel is the 6/1 joint favourite with Michael Matthews at Paddy Power, and the way they've been sprinting you'd have to fancy Matthews out of that matchbet as he has two stage wins to his name, but in head-to-heads so far in sprints in this race, Greipel is winning 5-4. Greipel has been poor, he's not had great success in the flat-out sprints so far in this race. His leadout has been bad, his positioning has been poor and his kick has been limp. I can't trust him at just 6/1. 

Michael Matthews, as I mentioned above, only has to finish in Paris to win Green now, he's unlikely to try to go in the break again. But he also has a chance if it comes to a sprint finish. He is in great shape, confidence is sky-high and the team are all around him. There was great collective celebration about their ride to get him the win a few days ago and this team would ride through walls for him it seems. But in the flat sprints he hasn't been at his best, he might find a few too good for him again. 

Interestingly, Paddy Power were twice the price of Dylan Groenewegen when they both opened, with 365 making Groenewegen their 11/2 favourite, PP had him at 11/1.. Groenewegen has been one of those who are left that has come closest to Kittel, finishing 2nd to him in Pau and 3rd behind Degenkolb in Bergerac. He has been sprinting ok, but not great, and he can sometimes get lost on twisty, tricky finishes like this. Also, what have the last few days taken out of him? The team is down to 6 riders, but he has more or less all his leadout train still here, and he'd have a chance if it was a straight sprint I think. But I'm worried that he gets lost in the frantic last kilometre here, it's something he is unfortunately guilty of sometimes. 

John Degenkolb was left fuming after losing out on the sprint in stage 16, he attacked Matthews for flicking across him in the sprint. I don't think there was anything in it, and the commissaires agreed, there was no sanctions on Matthews. And I also don't think Degenkolb would have got up even if he had got a clean line. But he is getting better and better in these sprints and now has a 2nd, 3rd and 5th in this Tour.. Trek will work hard for him tomorrow and Koen de Kort will take him in to position with 600m to go. I'd rather be on him that Greipel almost. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen has come closest than most to a stage win in this race, being beaten in two photo finishes and finishing 3rd in another stage. He is very strong, but equally, his leadout has been one of the most imrpessive in the race, with Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg being one of the best leadout men in the race, but Thwaites, Eisel and the rest all play their part. I have a feeling that they will be the team bossing it coming through those twisty last 1500m or so and can set up Boasson Hagen for another podium.

It would be like Nacer Bouhanni to rub my face in it, but I'm going to say he doesn't win, he just hasn't been good enough in this race, his leadout hasn't been good enough. Alexander Kristoff is another who will hate this finish, I don't think he'll be in the top 3, maybe not even the top 10. One sprinter I'd like a little bit of though at a big looking 28/1 is Sonny Colbrelli. Colbrelli hasn't had much luck so far in this race, but he sprinted well in Rodez to take 6th in the uphill finish and just today he sprinted well out the break to take the intermediate sprint. I know it was only the intermediate sprint out of a bunch of breakers, but if his legs are still good that he is doing that he might just put in a good showing tomorrow at a decent price. 

And with the sprint being wide open you might have the likes of Davide Cimolai, Ben Swift, Daniele Bennati getting involved, but I can't see any of them winning it. 

So it could be a close-run thing between the breakers and the sprinters, so I'm going to have a little bit of each..  

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 28/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Edvald Boasson Hagen at 9/1 with PP

0.5pts win on Greg Van Avermaet at 14/1 with PP

0.3pts win on Zdenek Stybar at 80/1 with 365

0.3pts win on Steve Cummings at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on Jan Bakelants at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets 

Colbrelli to beat Swift - 3pts at 4/6

Cimolai to beat Sabatini, Groen to beat Selig and EBH to beat Kristoff - 2pts on the treble at 13/8 with 365

Added: Groenewegen to beat Bouhanni - 4pts at 8/15 with Will Hill - Bouhanni said he was tired at the start and was just going to try to hang in there, doesn't sound very confident and I had Groenewegen in my mind to beat him anyway.