TDF 2015 - Stages 9 to 15

Stage 10

Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin, 167km

Tuesday, July 14th

Following a long transfer down to the south of France and the rest day in Pau, they enter the Pyrenees with the first summit finish of the race to a new finish at La Pierre-Saint-Martin.

 

The stage is more or less flat for the first 150kms which will allow the break of the day to build up an 8-10 minute gap before they hit the vertical ascent of the climb of La Pierre Saint-Martin. At 15.3kms at an average of 7.4% this will be a real shock to the bodies after an almost exclusively flat opening 9 stages. It was last crossed during the 2007 Tour on a stage that finished on the Col d'Aubisque.

Inside the first 2kms the gradient hits nearly 11% before 8kms of a pretty steady gradient around 9%. With 5kms to go to the summit it eases back to around 5% for 4kms before a final ramp up to 7.1% for the final kilometre. 

This will be the first real test of the GC men where there will be significant time gaps as it is likely to be fast and furious. Expect Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali to battle it out. Depending on how the TTT has gone we may see someone like Tejay Van Garderen in yellow, looking to defend it by hanging on to the mountain goats. 

Paddy Power have odds out already on the stage and it is wide open as you would expect, with Nairo Quintana the favourite at 4/1, followed by Contador at 5/1, Froome at 10/1 and Nibali at 11/1. 

Rafal Majka at 20/1 and Fabio Aru at 25/1 are two that look interesting but there's a lot of racing to be done between now and then!

If the break happens to build up a monster lead and the leaders play cat and mouse on the first summit finish, then the likes of Mick Rogers at 125/1, Ryder Hesjedal at 66/1 and Louis Meintjes at 150/1 could be interesting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 11

Pau to Cauterets - Valée De Saint-Savin, 188km

Wednesday, July 15th

The third most visited city by the Tour with 66 visits (after Paris and Bordeaux), Pau once again sees the peloton head out on a hard stage packed with climbing. On the way to the finish in Cauterets - Valée De Saint-Savin they will first have to cross the Col d'Aspin and the Col du Tourmalet, two of the most famous and iconic climbs of the Tour de France. 

Cautarets doesn't have great memories of the Tour, in it's only visit to date back in 1995, Fabio Casartelli had crashed and died on a descent earlier in the stage, a stage won by Richard Virenque.

At 188kms, it's one of the longer stages of the race and the opening 105 kms are a rolling preamble to the first climb of the day, the Col d'Aspin. At 12km long at an average of 6.5% it will make the first selection of the day. There are a couple of sections that are 9%+ and it stays pretty steep for the last 6kms of the climb. 

Once over the top, its a short 12kms descent to the foot of the Tourmalet and the start of the second major climb of the day. 

The Tourmalet is legendary in the Tour de France - it has been crossed some 77 times since it was first introduced in 1910, but has only twice seen a stage finish at the summit. Andy Schleck won stage 17 here in 2010. 

The Tourmalet steps up in terms of distance and steepness - it's nearly 17kms long at an average of 7.5%, with sections that hit 10-11% and it stays quite steep all the way to the top with the final 2kms averaging 9%. From the top there's nearly 30kms of descending before they start the final climb up to Cauterets.

Click on the maps to zoom in. 

The final climb to Cauterets is not that difficult in comparison to the Tourmalet, it may be 10kms long, but it averages only around 4%, which will feel like it's almost flat compared to what they have gone over before. Given the easy finish, a break has a great chance of staying away to the finish, as the GC men won't have the incentive to really put the hammer down, the finish isn't steep enough to put most of the contenders into difficulty. 

Expect a strong break to get away early in the stage and a big lead to be built up as they get over the Aspin and the Tourmalet, if they still have 5 minutes+ getting over the top of the Tourmalet, they might just make it. No odds out for it yet, and I can see why as it is impossible to pick who will win this stage this far out.. won't be much easier on the day either I'd think!

                                                                                                 

Stage 12

Lannemezan to Plateau de Beille, 195km

Thursday, July 16th

Laurent Fignon once said that the unprepared struggle in the third day in the mountains.. well here we are in the third day in the mountains and what a beast they have lined up to test the unprepared.. 

3,500 metres of climbing over four climbs, culminating in the summit finish to Plateau de Beille. The tiny town of Lannemezan (population 7,000) is for the third time the start town for a stage finishing on the the Plateau. The first climb is the Col de Portet-d'Aspet which is given a 4.2% average gradient over its 14.3kms, but that's a little deceptive as the first 10kms are pretty easy. The last 4kms or so gets much harder, ranging between 8 to 12%. Shortly after the top they pass the memorial to Fabio Casartelli who died on the descent in 1995. 

After the descent the climb up to the Col de la Core starts straight away and it's similar to the Porte d'Aspet as it starts easy but gets much harder near the top of its 17km long descent. There is a longer break between the summit though and the start of the next climb up to the Port de Lers, almost 35kms in total to recover.

The Port de Lers is a long climb at 17kms and is reasonably tough at 5.2% average. When the race crossed the summit of this climb in 1995, Marco Pantani was the first over the top. But the riders will be bracing themselves for the final climb up to the Plateau de Beille though as it is a back-breaker. 

15.8kms long at an average of 7.9% it's a brutal finish to the day. The climb is pretty consistent in its gradient the whole way up, with the first 5kms rarely dipping below 9%. The next 8kms average around 8% before it eases off a little bit with 2kms to go to just 6.3%.

The last 800m is only 2.5%, ensuring that if there is a small group that hits the final kilometre together we'll see a sprint finish like when Contador outsprinted Rasmussen in the 2007 Tour. In 2011, Jelle Vanendert took a surprise victory, holding off the chasing bunch of favourites including Evans, Contador and Schleck. 

It looks like the kind of finish that Alejandro Valverde will love, that sprint finish from the group of favourites will suit him right down to the ground. It should be a cracking finish to the stage and one that could well be raced at a furious pace to try to get rid of any weak links once and for all. If you struggle in the last 5kms of this climb you could lose several minutes.

 

Stage 13

Muret to Rodez, 200km

Friday, July 17th

This is one of the so-called 'Transition stages' which links the two great mountain ranges, but anyone who knows the area will tell you that the area is anything but flat, especially as they head further in to the Aveyron region. The finish looks like one for the sprinters but it will only be for those that can survive the rolling hills on the way to Rodez. 

No profile or odds out yet, I'll add them when they come available.

 

 

Stage 14

Rodez to Mende,178km

Saturday, July 18th

Another 'Transition Stage' going across the southern edge of the Massif Central from Rodez to Mende. No profile available yet for the full route, but if it is anything like the stage in 2010 that finished on the same climb in Mende then we are in for a treat.

The final climb up the Côte de la Croix Neuve is a brute - it may be only 3kms long but it averages 10.1%, hitting 14% in places, and it is unrelenting as it rises up above the city to the finish at the aerodrome. In 2010 a break including Vinokourov, Hesjedal and Kiryienka were finally reeled in when Contador and Rodriguez finally attacked out of what was left of the bunch and fought out the finish (although fought out may not be the best way to describe it as it looked like Rodriguez got the stage as Contador was just happy with the time gained on Schleck).

Only when they hit the final 1500m does it ease off and in fact descends for around a kilometre until the final sprint on the runway of the airport. We may not know much about the stage but this finish alone makes it one of the stages I am really looking forward to watching. Who knows, I may even make the trip over to stay with family in the Auvergne and head to the final climb!

You'd have to think that the likes of Contador and maybe a fitter Rodriguez will once again be at the forefront as they hit the steepest parts with 3kms to go. Quintana, Aru (if he rides), Valverde and Arredondo should also be right up there and there could be important time gained by the stage winner before they hit the Alps. Watch the video of stage 10 from 2010 below to see just how great a finish we could be in for.

 

Stage 15

Mende to Valence, 182kms

Sunday July 19th 

This should be a stage for the sprinters, but the rolling early part of the stage and the winds of the Rhône valley should make things interesting. No profile or indeed any details about the stage yet.