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Published on Monday, 06 July 2015 20:04

TDF Stage 4

Seraing to Cambrai

Tuesday 7th July, 223.5kms 

A return to the cobbles after the drama of last year will spark divided opinion among fans and riders alike. Many riders were very much against the cobbles last year, Chris Froome even threatened not to ride the Tour because of them. After some riders complained as to how hard a stage was, but some riders, and most fans declared the stage a classic.

What a stage it turned out to be though with Chris Froome crashing twice before they even reached the cobbles and abandoned (maybe he should have stayed away after all) and Vincenzo riding brilliantly to take a load of time on his main GC rivals. And as for Lars Boom? A career defining victory for him, almost as big as winning Paris-Roubaix. 

A big factor in the drama last year was the weather - the rain, mud and cold made for a day reminiscent of the tortures of Paris-Roubaix in April rather than the Tour de France in July. The forecast for Tuesday is better than last year though as there is no rain forecast in the morning, but there is a possibility of rain late in the afternoon, possibly right around the time they hit the last sections of cobbles. 

This is no Paris-Roubaix though and if the weather is good the first 175kms or so will be pretty easy going. A break will get 5 or 6 minutes but the peloton will keep them under control and will probably catch them with 30kms to go or so around the middle of the cobbled sections.   

Stage 2 Recap

A day to forget that today for a lot of the peloton, and for me. The worst possible outcome more or less, to see Rodriguez skip away from the pack and to victory. Words fail me as to how a guy who crashed twice yesterday and injured his hip, elbow and knee could fly up the Mur in 2’55”, 4” faster than Valverde in this year’s FW. No sign of Valverde, he was badly positioned and didn’t have his trademark kick at the finish. Dan Martin’s positioning was again really poor and although he managed to produce his trademark kick it wasn’t enough to get on the podium, just missing out by one place of course.

Mollema went well and was in the first 5 for most of the climb but faded to finish 10^th. At least one of the other riders I did point out as one to watch (but didn’t back of course), Vuillermoz, did his part to take 3^rd and at least land one of the two match bets that won. A bad day all round though, I felt as beat up as Ten Dam at the end of that stage, but like Ten Dam we’ll pop the shoulder back in and soldier on.

The stage was significant for a number of reasons other than Rodriguez’ win on Huy. The horrible crash took the guy that could have been in yellow tonight, Tom Dumoulin, out of the race along with three others including Simon Gerrans, in the wars once again. The race leader Cancellara probably should have quit the stage with what could have been concussion, but he decided he wanted to at least finish the stage in the yellow jersey. I’m not sure we’ll see him tomorrow. Initial reports said Laurens Ten Dam was out the race, but he wasn’t, getting back in the peloton after popping his dislocated shoulder back in to place. Michael Matthews looks like he will struggle to continue too which is a shame as I had him marked down as a likely winner for the stage to Le Havre.

And then there was the final battle among the GC men – Froome won the day there with a superb acceleration that put him in to the yellow jersey by just one second from the luckless Tony Martin. Tejay Van Garderen continues to impress and now sits 26” ahead of Contador, 1'25" ahead of Nibali and 1'43" ahead of Quintana. With the TTT to come at the end of this week we could see Van Garderen in yellow, or at least after taking more time out of some of his close rivals. Quintana was another winner today, clawing a few seconds back on some. Nibali did well on a finish that didn’t really suit him and Contador lost ground on a finish that you wouldn’t have expected him to.

End result to the betting? Froome has shortened in to 5/4, Quintana in to 11/4, Contador out to 8/1 and Nibali around 7/1. Van Garderen is still available to back at 20/1 though which still seems a little big to me. Andre Greipel stole some more sprint points but we could see Sagan do a lot better than him tomorrow. And with three wearers of the yellow jersey in three days it looks like over 4 and over 5 yellow jersey wearers has a good chance of landing. Purito is an interesting one now though for the mountains jersey, Katusha are not to be messed with this year and he showed today that he is more tuned up for this Tour than we had been led to believe.     

The Route

As they leave Seraing they pass through Huy and head south-east towards Namur and hit the Cat  4 Côte de la Citadelle de Namur, a 2km climb at 4.8%, shouldn't cause any problems. After a flat and open run for the next 50kms they hit the first cobbled section (section 7) from Pont-a-Celles to Gouy-Lez-Pieton, an 1800m section. They then carry on heading south-west and pass through Binche (of Binche-Chimay-Binche fame) and the intermediate sprint point at Havay. 

40kms later, at the 177.5km mark they hit the next cobbled sections, six sections that come thick and fast over the next 30kms. Section 6 from Artres to Famars is 1200m long, Section 5 from Querenaing to Verchain Maugré is 1600m long, Section 4 from Verchain-Maugré to Saulzoir comes almost straight after Section 5 and is 1200m long. 

There's a break then for about 10kms until they hit the last three sections, the first two of which come in quick succession over 2.5kms. Section 3 is Saint Python and is 1500m long, Section 2 is from Fontaine au Tertre to Quievy and is the longest section of the day at 3700m long, and that's followed 10kms later by the final section, Section 1, which is Auvesnes-Les-Aubert to Carnieres, a 2300m section. 

Once they are over the last section of cobbles of Section 1 there's only 11.7kms left to the line. The run in to the finish is pretty straight forward until about 1600m to go when they turn left and under a railway line where it's a little tight but shouldn't cause too many problems.

Then after a jink right with 1km to go they go through almost a U-turn with two sharp left-handers over cobbles, but the finish is slightly uphill for 500m on a 7m wide road

Although it's easier than say a day at Paris-Roubaix, the distance of 223km is going to make this a very hard day in the saddle. Three of the cobbled sections were used in PR this year - Quiévy, Saint-Python and Verchain-Maugré, so some riders will know the sections well after racing on them and lots of recon rides before then and now. This is third time the Tour has visited Cambrai, the last time was in 2010 when Alessandro Petacchi won a sprint to Reims. 

Contenders and Favourites

Like last year, where do you even start trying to pick a winner of this stage?! Do we go for the tough sprinter types like Classics winners Degenkolb or Kristoff, or traditional cobbles men like Vanmarcke, Cancellara or Sagan? There is going to be so much going on all day on this stage with the GC favourites and their teams looking to keep them out of trouble and the stage hunters looking to break things up and go for the stage victory. There will be lots of nervous riders, especially in light of what happened last year and what has happened already on stage 2 on the windy roads to Zelande. 

John Degenkolb is a likely winner of a stage like this given his heroics in Paris-Roubaix this year. He looked so comfortable all day on the cobbles and easily took the sprint in the velodrome. Of course there is no velodrome at the end of this stage, it'll come down to a straight forward sprint - well straight forward apart from the two tight left hand bend that leads in to an uphill last 500m.

Degenkolb was brilliant that day when he took the race in to his own hands and attacked off the front of a strong group to bridge across to the leaders. He got some great assistance from his team-mate Bert de Backer who attacked with 11kms to go and then buried himself when Degenkolb bridged to him. 

He was second in Paris-Roubaix in 2014 too, winning the bunch sprint behind Terpstra, another excellent result over the cobbles. He's got Cruvers, De Kort, Timmers, Geschke and Sinkledam to look after him and I think they will be one of the strongest teams on the day. It is his big target for the Tour, and with Kittel out, these are the kinds of chances the team will be desperate to win and I think he has a big chance of a big result on an uphill sprint finish that will suit him perfectly. He tested his sprint against Greipel today in the intermediate sprint and was only a half a bikelength behind him. He opened at 4/1 with PP, which was way too short, but Betfred went 13/2 paying out 4 places and that will do for me.   

Alexander Kristoff looks the obvious danger given his strong performances in recent years over the cobbles, particularly in the Tour of Flanders. He hasn't a great record at Paris Roubaix though, he doesn't seem to have as much luck on the flatter cobbles as the Hellingen of Flanders. His results are three DNFs, 57th, 9th and 10th, the 10th coming this year when he missed the move by the group that fought out the finish. He did win the sprint for 10th place though. He has been going extremely well for the rest of the season since the cobbled classics but did miss the move Sunday, the move that Sagan, Cancellara, Greipel and Cavendish made - he'll have to make sure he isn't badly positioned again though or he could miss the big move. No doubt though, if he comes to the finish at the front of the race he has a big chance of winning. He rolled home 5th last today with only the bloodied and the wounded behind him. Not sure if that is ultra energy-conserving out of him or if he actually wasn't feeling great today. I don't think he came down though in a crash.

Peter Sagan showed he's in good shape with an excellent 19th place in the Time Trial on stage 1 and his grat ride in stage 2 where he almost won the sprint. He was many people's pick for today but faded badly on the steeper sections of the Mur and came home in 27th position.

Paris-Roubaix was supposedly a big target for him this year but it almost went to shit for him with stomach problems that forced him to make an emergency toilet stop with 100km to go. Despite these problems he showed incredible power to get back on to the front of the race, despite having to squat in a ditch for probably a minute, he eventually finished a very respectable 23rd, in the group just 31" back on Degenkkolb. 6th in 2014 in PR, 5th in the sprint, he should go well again, but if he finds the likes of Degenkolb or Kristoff in the same group he will have a tough job winning the sprint. 

Sep Vanmarcke is a candidate for the late breakaway, possibly on the last two sections of cobbles. 11th this year in PR, 4th in 2014, 2nd in 2013, he's built for a day on the cobbles. With a powerful LotttoNL team behind him, with the likes of Gesink, Ten Dam, Tankink and Kelderman, he should be well positioned when the key breaks come late on. He has trained many times on these roads and says that no other rider will know the roads better than him. He rode well in the cobbled stage last year but punctured at the worst possible moment. We could see him look to force a selection late on - at 11/1 with Skybet paying 4 places he was worth a go.

Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard fly the flag for Team Sky and their primary responsibility will be to look after Chris Froome on a day that could be pivotal to his chances in the GC. Thomas goes well on the cobbles and did a great job of steering Richie Porte to a good finish last year after Froome had crashed out. He says that he is looking forward to the stage though, and if Froome is being well looked after he might get a chance to go after some breaks and could get up the road. Luke Rowe likewise - Sky's best finisher in PR this year in 8th place, he looked very comfortable and very strong in that elite selection. 

Alejandro Valverde - can he spring a surprise on the cobbles? It's not something he likes doing very much, in fact he has done Paris Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders a grand total of zero times! The closest he has come to racing on the cobbles was in the E3 Harelbeke last year when he finished in 63rd place. This is different of course, he has no choice but to do it and the master of the spring (Ardennes) Classics has the strength, guile and positioning awareness to handle himself well. I think he will be looking after Quintana though, they can't afford for him to lose any more time, especially as he is supposedly suffering from some allergies at the moment. 

Lars Boom and Lieuwe Westra will be tasked with trying to ensure Vincenzo Nibali tears up the race like last year, they were two of the strongest men on the cobbles last year, so much so that Astana signed up Boom in the winter to help Nibali with this particular stage. A brilliant winner of the cobbled stage last year, Boom is riding under a cloud at the moment due to his Cortisole readings so it may be that we see him doing a shift for Nibali today and may have to shelve personal ambitions. But who knows, if Nibali is in the front selection with a few team-mates and feeling good and so is Boom he might let him go and try his luck on the last sector of cobbles. 

Greg Van Avermaet - Mr Consistency, he loves a good classics-like day, as he showed once again with a great ride to be in the mix on Sunday, finishing 6th, but he did look totally spent at the finish. Daniel Oss led him out for the sprint but he couldn't come around Oss and instead finished behind him. He should be more comfortable on this stage though and I expect him to go well again after his fantastic 3rd place in PR this April. He almost landed a 100/1 forecast for me, Stybar getting up by millimetres to deny me..

He has finished 4th in PR also in 2013 and has finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th in Flanders. With a very strong BMC team around him he should go well. He is sounding very confident ahead of the stage too: "The cobbles suit me a little bit better and it is also not totally flat, which is good for me," he said. "There is a little bit of uphill on the cobbles, so I am looking forward to tomorrow. The main goal is Tejay for sure, but I hope to go for a stage victory." 10/1 with Skybet for 4 places was worth a bet.  

Zdenek Stybar is another 'Classics' rider who could go well here for EQS. Winner of Strade Bianche for us at 14/1, 2nd in Paris-Roubaix to deny me the 100/1 forecast (grrr), we haven't seen a lot of him since, with lowly placings in LBL first and then in the Tour de Suisse he did after 5 weeks away altitude training in Sierra Nevada (right). He has looked in good shape so far though, finishing in 28th in the TT and 22nd in stage 2, making the move of the day. He could be a real dark horse here for this stage and might be worth keeping onside if he's not tasked with looking after Cav, Uran, Kwiatkowski or Martin!

Stijn Devolder, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Martin Elmiger, Florian Senechal - all good classics guys who could go well here at huge prices, but I'm a little annoyed with Elmiger, he went off in the break of the day today wasting energy, I was thinking of having a small bet on him each-way for this stage as he finished 5th in this year's PR and was very strong all day. He is in a H2H with Chavanel and with IAM announcing today (after news broke in L'Equipe) that Chavanel was leaving the team at the end of the season, his head hopefully won't be in it today... Let's hope he isn't fired up to try to impress a new team!

I've decided to add a small bet on Devolder too now, with Cancellara out he should be given the go ahead to ride his own race. At 125/1 he was worth a small bet. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on John Degenkolb at 13/2 with Betfred, paying 4 places

0.75pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 10/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Sep Vanmarcke at 11/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

One at a big price for fun - Florian Senechal - 0.25pts each-way at 100/1 with PP paying 4 places

09.35: new bet added - Stijn Devolder - 0.25pts each-way at 125/1 with PP paying 4 places

Matchbets

Elmiger to beat Chavanel - Elmiger was on the attack today but it didn't last too long, he finished 5th in PR this year. Chavanel came down in that crash today too, 2pts at 8/11.

Van Avermaet to beat Oss, Sagan to beat Demare, Elmiger to beat Chavanel, Greipel to beat Cavendish - 2pts at 2.68/1 with Bet365

Stybar to beat Kwiatkowski - 2pts at 1/2 with 365