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- Published on Sunday, 19 July 2015 22:32
TDF Stage 16
Bourg-de-Péage to Gap
Monday 20th July, 201kms
The Alps approach, you can almost see Alpe d'Huez from Gap.. almost but it's still a long way until they get there next Sunday. This is a crazily open stage, a stage that really could be won by so many different riders, and this is reflected by the fact that the favourite, Alejandro Valverde, is as big as 16/1!
Gap has frequently been used in the Tour and the final climb they go over today has seen its fair share of drama over the years. It is of course the descent that is famous, rather than the climb, as it was the spot where Josebi Baloki crashed horribly when he rolled a tub in stage 9 in 2003, the crash causing Lance Armstrong to the take to the field for a bit of cross-country, rejoining the race further down the road.
It was also the descent which saw Contador attack and gain time on Andy Schleck in 2011 and in 2013, a desperate Alberto Contador was trying so hard to get away from Froome, he crashed on the descent. Ruis Costa soloed away from the break to win the stage.
It was a strange stage today which ended with more heartbreak for John Degenkolb and for us, he was narrowly denied by André Greipel. It was all the more annoying because I had dismissed Greipel's chances, like most, as he had been suffering so much recently. So it was very annoying to see him stay in there and deny us another winner with Degenkolb, that's twice we've been mugged with him. Small payout on the each-way at least. It was also very annoying and frustrating that we had Sagan, Trentin and de Gendt in the break of nine, a fantastic representation I thought, but the break was never given much rope, especially as Greipel and Kristoff were still at the front. It also meant that Lars Bak was a passenger and the group never really looked like they were really going at it 100%.
Peter Sagan was phenomenal again though, leading the breakaway, winning the intermediate sprint and still getting up to come pretty close to winning it, taking 4th on the line. The top 3 failed, but if any of you had taken my advice to back him with the bookies paying 4 places, you got a return. I got one other thing right though, and that was that Mark Cavendish would not make it over even the first climb, I hope I put some of you off backing him at least.
The Route
The profile makes it look like they will be climbing for 150kms and this will be a really hard day in the saddle again, just before they break for the rest day. The start out of Bourg-de-Péage, just a little to the north-east of Valence, where stage 15 finished, and they loop around north-westward for a little at the start before they eventually start heading south-east towards Crest. After Crest, which is 48.5kms in, they start climbing gently. Nearly 40kms later they pass the intermediate sprint at Die, and there could be some sprinters Die soon after the intermediate sprint and roll home in their own time.
They carry on climbing gently until the 121km mark when they start on the Cat 2 climb of the Col de Cabre, a 9.1km climb at 4.6%. Depending on how it's ridden, we could see the race start to really whittle down, as once over the top they will have ridden 130km of the 201kms. A short descent is followed by more climbing for more or less 50kms until they arrive in to the town of Gap for the first time with 24kms to go. Three kilometres later they start on the Col de Manse, a Cat 2 climb that towers up over the town of Gap. It's 8.9kms long at an average of 5.6%, but it's not very steep - it's the descent that is the interesting part of this climb as I mentioned above already. The road descends more or less all the way to the last 500m where there is a slight uphill finish.
The finishing straight is 1300m long, but there are two large roundabouts with 1500m and 1km to and then another smaller one with 500m to go, but I'm not sure there will be a very large group contesting the finish anyway.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kilometres
Contenders and Favourites
I was tempted to put all the names of the top 30 in the betting in to a hat and just draw 3 or 4 names and back them, regardless of who they were.. Such is the conundrum we are faced with here for tomorrow's stage. There are just so many ways that this stage could be won - a long breakaway has a chance, a late attack on the Col de Manse, an attack on the descent or a reduced bunch sprint.
A long break could make it and the strongest looking guys to me who will like a stage like this are the likes of Jacob Fuglsang (will also be interested in picking up the 10 KOM points on offer, he currently sits in 3rd place in the competition, Jan Bakelants, who rode so well to land the 50/1 each-way on Friday, he took it easy today - the 25/1 with Ladbrokes who are paying 4 places looks interesting. Romain Bardet has been active lately and was gutted to have lost the stage to Cummings on Saturday. He should like a day of long steady climbing like this, and will also like the descent in to Gap, remember his stage win to Par-Loup in the Dauphiné was all down to his descent to the bottom of the final climb. The 40/1 is worth a small bet I think.
Others that might be interested in the break could be Ryder Hesjedal and Simon Geschke, but they were up the road today so maybe not. Peter Sagan is likely to try to get in the break again, if only to try to win the intermediate sprint after 86kms. This also looks like a Thomas Voeckler kind of stage, I'm sure he's licking his lips or gurning in some special way thinking about a stage like this. He will like the relatively easy climbing and the descent in to Gap for a late attack.
Looking at the GC men then and the possibility of them getting involved - It'll be interesting to see how they decide to ride the stage. The GC team's had a day off today as it was Katusha, Giant-Alpecin and Lottto-B who were doing all the work today - will they take another day off tomorrow or will they look to push it? I think the pace will be kept very high again tomorrow, Movistar say that they are getting stronger as the weeks go on, Sky look like they are possibly struggling more as the weeks go on. Quintana will still have a big say in this race I feel and he should definitely take it to Froome in the last 4 stages. He had him under pressure on the climb to Mende on Saturday, and there was no sign of Froome's team. Richie Porte is not feeling 100% at the moment apparently, Thomas faded away to lose almost a minute to his team leader, and today Peter Kennaugh was in the grupetto with Cavendish from the first climb of the day.
Movistar should try attacking Froome tomorrow to see the reaction. Nairo could attack on the Col de Manse, making Sky and Froome chase him. If he gets over the top with a small lead there will be a furious chase down the descent and Froome could struggle. And even if it is all pulled back together before the finish, Alejandro Valverde will be waiting in the wings to pounce, he should win the reduced bunch sprint if it's mainly GC men that come to the finish together.
The question then is, will he be sprinting for the stage victory or will it be for minor honours and maybe to try to get a time gap on Froome? The profile looks good for a strong breakaway, but there are a lot of very tired riders out there and with the forecast saying it's going to be another hot day (31 degrees in the afternoon) then it's going to be a hard day in the saddle. If Movistar, Astana or say OGE or Lotto-Soudal get a man in the break, then there is more chance of it staying away. If not, then I think they could be reeled in - there are a number of guys who will fancy this finish.
I said above that Jacob Fuglsang could go in the break, and that would mean Vincenzo Nibali and his squad get a nice easy ride not having to work.This could free up Nibali to try a late attack and use his demon descending skills to try to get away on the run in to the finish. He has been looking better of late and tried his luck on the climb to Mende, stretching his legs with Quintana when he saw Froome under pressure. He is riding for pride now, and would also like to start clawing some time back of course. He could be one for the short-list for sure.
Dan Martin had said that the stage in to Gap was one that he fancied, but seeing as he has been so under the weather this week, it's hard to put faith in him. He rolled in 5 minutes down again today, it didn't seem to be that fast on the run in, so it was significant that he lost time again. Another rider who has indicated in an interview two days ago that he was targeting this stage was Michael Matthews. The OGE man is coming back to health and was looking good in the sprint today for the last 2-3kms, surfing the wheels and jumping in behind Degenkolb at one point. He just didn't have the speed in the end, but managed a creditable 8th considering how banged up he was. He should be able to hang in there on the Col de Manse climb and if he comes to the finish with the lead group, he could be the one to beat Valverde in the sprint at a huge price of 40/1 with Bet365.
Tony Gallopin, Wilko Kelderman, Tanel Kangert, Jarlinson Pantano, Serge Pauwels and Tim Wellens are all the sorts of guys who could try something on this stage, but I'll leave it at the following recommendations, for small stakes to cover break and bunch sprint scenarios.
Edit: 09:26 - I've added a few small bets on Betfair on some other possibles for the break at big prices - Greg Van Avermaet goes home tommorrow to his expectant wife, he is worth a small bet at 46s to go out on a high! Also added small bets on Pieter Weening and Ramunas Navardauskas at 110.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 40/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Jacob Fuglsang at 28/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 25/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places
0.5pts each-way on Vincenzo Nibali at 16/1 with PP paying 4 places
0.3pts each-way on Romain Bardet at 40/1 with Bet365
0.2pts win on Ramunas Navardauskas at 110 on Betfair
0.4pts win on Greg Van Avermaet at 55 on Betfair
0.2pts win on Pieter Weening at 110 on Betfair
Match-Bets
Nibali to beat Froome - 1.1pts at 10/11 with Ladbrokes
Jan Bakelants to beat Jarlinson Pantano - 2.4pts at 5/6 with Bet365
Rolland to beat Frank - 1.8pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes
