Details

Published on Thursday, 27 August 2020 18:10

TDF Team Classification

Who will be the top team?

This time last year Movistar were the hot 8/13 favourites to take the prize for the 4th time in five years, their run only broken by Sky in 2017. And they did indeed deliver, beating Trek by almost 48 mins and Ineos by almost 58 mins.

That was despite Ineos taking 1st and 2nd in the GC, with Bernal and Thomas, Movistar had their three-pronged attack to thank, with Valverde, Landa and Quintana all chipping in with high-placed finishes on all the key stages, like was expected. 

The main reason Movistar did so poorly in 2017 (they were only 6th, almost 2 hours behind Sky!) was because they were derailed on the very first stage with the crash and abandonment of their leader Valverde. It also didn't help that Quintana had a poor Tour finishing down in 12th, and all the rest of the team seemed to be affected by Valverde's crash too and were never at the races. 

This year is a different story though, with an odds-against favourite in Team Jumbo Visma at 13/8, with Ineos not far behind them at all at 9/2 and UAE Team Emirates and EF Education First at 11/2 and Movistar at 15/2.. probably the tighest market I have seen in years. 

Jumbo Visma - 13/8

I honestly thought they'd be odds-on, like Movistar were last year, the 13/8 was a bit of a surprise. Incredible squad here, with domestiques better than some team's leaders. Sepp Kuss showed what he can do in the final stage of the Dauphiné, after spending the previous stages pulling for mile after mile in the mountains. George Bennett ditto, with his win in Gran Piemonte and 2nd in Lombardia after ripping it up in Burgos and the l'Ain. Tony Martin and Amund Grondahl Jansen will not be much help in terms of finishing high up every stage, they do their job early and coast home. 

Wout Van Aert will also be on team duties lower down the slopes, and on the flatter stages he won't be going on any breaks to gain time either. On the other hand, their climbers will give them a big edge in this competition - Roglic is obviously going to be right up there at the front for all the big stages and will be one of the first home in the TT. Tom Dumoulin will be one of the last men standing for Roglic and is likely to keep pushing to the finish to secure a high placing for himself in the GC. 

Sepp Kuss and George Bennett will also be able to keep going near the front until late in the climbs and will possibly have burnt off a lot of their opposition by the time they pull over, meaning they could still be two of the top 10 or so home on most stages. Robert Gesink does his work a little lower down the slopes, so he'll be trailing in in the 20-40th sort of places like he did in the Dauphiné.

It may even be that we see Wout get the freedom to go in breaks at certain points of the race to maybe help an attack from Roglic, for example on stage 15 if he's in the break and Roglic catches him from an attack near the top of the Col de Biche and Wout buries himself to take him to the foot of the Grand Colombier with a healthy lead.. but if the break makes it, Wout gains good time. It is a tricky one though, as Roglic's domestiques will be burning themselves out to set him up, will they have enough in the tank to keep going to help out the team classification, when the ultimate goal is yellow?

Team Ineos – 5/1

4/1 last year, even though they had the top two favourites in the betting for the race? A team that had Bernal, Thomas, Poels, Kwiato and Castroviejo? They were my pick in 2018 against Movistar, but like last year, what happened was they burned their third and 4th men out too soon on the climbs and they limped home at their own time to save their legs for the next day, whereas Movistar's guys rode their own races and consistently placed 3 men higher up than Sky. That's what it takes to win this competition, and when you're going for GC, that's the situation you find yourself in.

A strong team again this year, Bernal will be up there leading the charge on the mountains, but Carapaz and Zivakov won't be far behind either, sort of in the same mould as Kuss and Dumoulin. I think Carapaz is too good and too classy to just stop completely on a climb, even when he has his turn done I think he'll keep pushing to the finish. And it may be that Carapaz attacks some days instead of sitting in behind the JV train, if he can get away once or twice, or go in breaks later in the race if out of GC contention, he might be able to take a stage win and time. 

Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo will be dead with 3-4kms to go, Kwiat and Rowe even further down the mountain. In a head to head battle of these two top teams, it'll be Bernal Vs Roglic, Dumoulin Vs Carapaz, Kuss or Bennett Vs Sivakov or Castroviejo.. and of those battles, I'd have Jumbo coming out on top on about 3 out of 4 of them on average. It might only be a handful of seconds here and there, but there won't be much between them at the end I think. Can Ineos put people in breaks? Maybe Carapaz or Sivakov if they fall down the GC, maybe Dylan Van Baarle or Luke Rowe.. but it's unlikely. Ineos don't really seem to care about this prize ever, it's all about yellow. 

UAE Team Emirates - 13/2

The first of two teams at 11/2, that's a good matchbet then between the two of them at the end.. strange then that Bet365 have chosen not to make a market on them, seeing as they have them both at the same price. They should go 5/6 each of them and let us pick..

UAE thrid favourites? That sounds a bit surprising, but they do have Tadej Pogacar, and he's going to be up there most days with Roglic and Bernal. He might even get away some days near the finish when the top two play cat and mouse and take 20-30" of a gap. They don't really have a team that will be doing a mountain train like JV or Ineos, Fabio Aru, David de la Cruz and Davide Formolo will be hanging on for dear life at the back for as long as they can. 

But that's not the reason they are 3rd favourites - the reason is the very fact I mentioned above, they are not going to even try to pretend they have a mountain train I think, and instead will be sending riders up the road a lot. Davide Formolo has shown great legs and loves to get in the break, he was flying in Strade Bianche and in the Dauphiné. He is likely to get in several breaks that can win by 5+ minutes. 

David de la Cruz and Fabio Aru maybe likewise, but I think Aru will try to stay with Pogacar as long as possible and will try to place well on the GC. Polanc, Marcato, Laengen and Kristoff are all likely to try to get in breaks, and could also add to the time they gain. But overall, I don't think the sum of the parts warrants a price of 11/2 3rd favourites, we might be waiting some days for their 2nd and 3rd men to come home, and any breaks they go in might not be enough to make up for their time losses on the key mountain stages. I can't see any of them coming close in the TT either. 

EF Education First - 13/2

EF are the same time as UAE, but to me have a far better team for this competition, and not only that, might well have a team who will be targeting this competition, they seem a very close bunch of compadres. Dani Martinez, Sergio Higuita and Rigo Uran may not be in the first 3 or 4 home in the tough mountain stages, but they won't be far behind, and I wouldn't be surprised some days to see the likes of Martinez coming home just after the leaders and then Higuita and Uran coming home in 10th - 20th place, not far back. 

Consistency like this could be what gives them a nice foundation to build on, and the edge they might have might be their other riders ability to get up the road in breaks on the quieter days and steal some valuable time advantages. Hugh Carthy has been pretty anonymous of late, but he's very capable of infiltrating breaks on lumpy days and sticking on to take a high placing.

Alberto Bettiol has looked very strong of late and I expect to see him in several breaks, one of those big breaks that could take 10 minutes on one of the 'quieter' days. Tejay, Neilsen Powless and Keukeleire are all capable of getting up the road too, and it could well be that on some days, when JV and Ineos start to just control the peloton later in the race, we get big breaks go of some 20+ guys, and we could see 2 or 3 pink jerseys in there. That's when they could really start to make some big time gains on the two above, who will likely keep most if not all of their riders in the pack. 

Movistar - 15/2

Winners for years and years, now they find themselves down in 5th place in the pecking order. But then I had to go and check the full details of their squad as that team has changed so much this season, I could barely name 2 or 3 of their likely starters. 

Alejandro Valverde of course is there, but he's not looking like he's going to do much this year, he was way off the pace in Burgos and the Dauphiné (yet still finished 15th and 12th). He's not going to match the top climbers here any more, but he will be coming home 10th - 20th most days. Maybe he'll get in some breaks and try to win from there instead to salvage something from his season. 

Enric Mas has joined from DQS, but he has yet to show what he showed two years ago at the Vuelta. He is another who could be 10th-20th on some stages, but equally could come home 20 minutes down, the way he's been riding. Marc Soler has also fallen off the radar somewhat this season, especially since the return, but he is capable of getting in breaks and taking a high placing on them. Erviti, Oliveira, Verona and Cataldo can also be break candidates, but I just don't think there is a strong enough core of quality there any more for them to score consistently high enough to challenge for the win. 

Bahrain Merida - 11/1

Can't have them at 11/1, I wouldn't even back them at 33/1. Yes, they have Landa, but that's about it with regards scoring well on the mountain stages. Maybe Poels or Bilbao might be close enough, but when Landa gets dropped they will stay with him. Poels hasn't been riding great and it usually takes him two weeks to start going well, it might be too late by that point to save the team. The rest are break candidates, possibly, but they aren't getting me interested in the slightest. 

Astana - 16/1

Decent team here with them, littered with quality for the mountains and the breaks, they look a bit over-priced to me. MAL will lead the line from the front, will be supported by Tejada, Sanchez, the Izagirre's and Fraile, we are sure to see some of them filling the top 20 slots on most stages. Tejada could be a real dark-horse for them in this competition, he could even finish ahead of MAL in some stages the way he's been riding. 

The Izagirre's, Fraile and Sanchez are all very likely break candidates too, and we might even see 2 or 3 of them get in the big breaks too, possibly with the intention maybe of having MAL bridge to them on some of the later climbs, should he attack out the favourites group. And maybe, if it goes badly for him in the GC, Lopez could well take off in the breaks in the last week and could take big time to help with this competition. Never rule Astana out... 

Trek - 16/1

I'm including them as a main paragraph because they finished 2nd last year.. I can't really see Mollema or Porte mounting big GC challenges, but they will be there or thereabouts on most big stages, both should go reasonably well on the ITT too. Kenny Ellisonde and Nik Eg need to up their game though to try to limit the losses to the 3rd rider each day, but where their advantage might come from will be breaks. Toms Skujins, Mads Pedersen, Edward Theuns and Jasper Stuyven will be getting up the road a lot, and they could take a lot of time on some stages. But they lack the consistency I think to take good time repeatedly, and we could see some days where their 2nd and 3rd men home are a long way back. 

Others

FDJ will be focusing on Thibaut Pinot, but Gaudu, Madouas, Molard and Reichenbach will be 10th-30th sort of place on the big stages. I just don't see how they will get many men in the break as their focus will all be on the GC, and they don't really have breakaway riders in their squad anyway. Steer clear at just 22/1. Mitchelton Scott are the same price they were last year at 22/1, when I picked them, but they were terrible, down in 11th place. It's a similar team to last year, but they do have Chaves coming in for Simon Yates, and Sam Bewley and Mikel Nieve come in for Haig and Hepburn. They say they are coming here for stage wins, I can't see them having very many near the front on the big mountain stages, so what they make up in the break days I fear they will lose double on the key stages. Forget the rest, they won't be challenging. 

Jumbo look to have the edge to me in their battle with Ineos, man to man, but it will be tight between them and they will have 100% focus on their team leaders.  I think there could be some value in both EF and Astana, but no bookie is offering each-way so I'm just going to dip my toe in with two small bets on the two teams I think offer some value.

Recommendation:

1pt win on EF at 13/2

0.5pts win on Astana at 16/1