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Published on Tuesday, 25 August 2020 21:04

TDF 2020 Stage 9

Pau - Laruns

September 6th, 153kms 

The second day in the Pyrenees looks to be one for the breakaway men to have a bit of fun with. The start and finish are only 40kms apart, but they take in a 153km run through the hills including two Cat 1s, which should get the KOM boys interested. 

Stage 8 Review

Well that was fun wasn't it! I was out at a family lunch all day in a house with almost no signal and I being too polite to go on my phone.. but then I had a quick check on Twitter to see that Nans Peters was 40" clear with just 20kms to go and I got very excited. So excited in fact I asked our hosts could I be so rude as to go to their TV to watch the end of the stage! Looking at the highlights tonight, I'm glad I didn't watch all the race, as I'd have been totally stressed as Nans tried to ride away from Zakarin. 

What a ride, what a result, bloody delighted to get that on the board, was badly needed as you all know! I took the 100/1 with Betway, but also had him at 196/1 average on Betfair, so it was an excellent day. Pogacar did what I wanted him to do too in jumping out to take time on Roglic, so that matchbet won too, taking our total to 62.35pts profit on the day, 63pts in 2 days, so we are very much back on track. Unfortunately Nizzolo's abandonment with knee pain has cost us the Green jersey bets, and Dumoulin falling out of contention has probably cost us the top 3 bets, that looked to be going so well too. 

But what a stage it turned out to be - behind there was all sorts of drama going on - Thibaut Pinot's Tour is over after a disastrous day, looks like the back injury he suffered on stage 1 just hasn't healed up enough. Tadej Pogacar has lit up the race too, attacking away from the GC group and putting 40" in to Roglic and the other GC guys, taking back almost all the time he lost the day before in the cross-winds.. So it wasn't just youthful ignorance when he said that 'It is only a minute',  he obviously knew just how well he is going right now. 

Dumoulin lost 2'07" and with it probably his chance of a podium spot, after looking so good up until now - it seems that he radioed his team and said he was going all-in for Roglic on the Peyresourdes and pulled as hard as he could before pulling off and drifting out of contention. In fact, Jumbo fell away pretty tamely in the end considering the promise they have shown over the last month..

Sepp Kuss was dropped early on on the Bales, then after a monster ride again from Wout he too pulled off with 17.3kms to go, Dumoulin took over for as long as he could and put in a massive turn then Alaphilippe attacked with 15kms to go and Bennett went pop, as did Gesink.. Alaphilippe went out the back door in a matter of seconds, not sure why he did that pointless attack if he was at the end of his 

, and Roglic didn't want to, or wasn't able to go with the big attack from Pogacar. Maybe he doesn't seem him as a genuine threat, but he might rue giving him an opportunity to get back in to the GC battle. 

Romain Bardet continues to surprise me, he picked up a few seconds again today with a late attack to move him to within 11" of Roglic, and Guillaume Martin continues to go well too, he now sits in 3rd, just 9" behind Yates. But the GC battle is still wide open - Nairo Quintana, Bernal, Lopez and Uran are just 13" down, with Pogacar sitting just 35" behind them. 

The Route

A flattish run for 58kms south-west with a small Cat 4 bump along the way after 9.5kms to help get the break away. They then start on the Cat 1 Col de la Hourcere (11.1kms at 8.8%), a pretty steady 8.8%, but with some steep 9-11% sections. A 5km descent and then they start on the Cat 3 Col de Soudet, a short 3.8kms but steep at 8.5% average.

34kms to the next climb, the Cat 3 Col d'Ichere, then 12kms to the bottom of the final big challenge, the steep and nasty Col de Marie Blanque. The Cat 1 climb is 7.7kms at 8.6%, but it's a tale of two halves, with the first 4kms averaging just 5.6%, but then it gets real steep.

A kilometer at 10.5%, then 12.2%, then 13.3%, with the last 700m before the summit easing back to 'just' 9.9%. At the top of the Marie Blanque there's are bonus seconds available, so if the break has been brought back we could see a big fight for the points. 

From the top there are just 18kms to the finish, 10kms of which are down the descent off the Marie Blanque. The descent can be really tricky in parts, with some dangerous hairpins, especially towards the bottom - if a rider has a short lead coming down here there could be some sketchy moments as they take risks on the descent. 

The last 8kms are uphill, not too steep, just about 1%, but it is an uphill run to the line which will hurt tired legs. The weather looks to be ok, but there is the possibility of rain, with more chance of rain as the day goes on. There is a gentle tail wind as they head in to the finish in Laruns, which will help anyone riding home solo.  

Contenders and Favourites

Well what do we think is going to happen tomorrow now, based on what happened today? I was almost 100% that this would be a break stage, and I think I will still stick with break candidates as my main picks, after that mad day today with JV not exactly looking like the JV we were expecting, we might see the GC men sit back a little again and let them go, and then fight it out on the Marie Blanque.

If they do go to the Marie Blanque and hoover up the break, then you have to think Pogacar has to be the favourite based on how he just danced away from everyone today, setting a new record by FORTY FIVE SECONDS up the Peyresourde. He is clearly on fire and will be looking to stick the knife in while he can if the others falter at all. 

It's obvious that they would open with Julian Alaphilippe as the favourite for tomorrow, he lost over 11 minutes today so is now back to stage hunting again. Tomorrow looks perfect for him, but 7/2 is pretty short. Now that Pinot is out of the running, FDJ will be stage hunting and all his minders will be let off the leash from now on. David Gaudu and Rudy Molard are two that I'm going to put in the pot for the break tomorrow. 

Lutsenko is likely to try again but 16/1 is too short for me, as is Lennard Kamna at 22/1, I'm still not sure that he's back to himself yet. Davide Formolo finished 32 mins down today, in fact, all the UAE guys finished a long, long way down today, they just aren't capable of looking after Pogacar when the road gets steep.. So for now, that's putting me off backing the likes of Formolo and Aru, I was tempted by him at 28/1, but I think I'll wait and look for signs of life before backing him. 

Dan Martin is just 40/1, but I think I'll wait for signs of life from him too before backing him. We've backed Muhlberger a few times, but I don't want to give up on him, maybe he took today as a rest day after a hard day ripping it up for Sagan the day before. I'm going to give him another go at 40/1. Hugh Carthy will interest me when he is further down on GC than 7 minutes, I'm not backing him at 28/1 until then.

Instead, maybe Dani Martinez will fancy giving the break a go, seeing as he's now down over 33 minutes on the GC, he'll like the Marie Blanque, and could skip away to take the stage, as he might be one of the best climbers in the break. And why not try Harold Tejada at 250/1? I bigged him up at the start of the race after his performance in the Mount Ventoux challenge, maybe he'll get in the break and pull off a ride like that on the Marie Blanque?

I can't have De Gendt at 33/1, I think other stages suit him a bit more, and Jesus Herrada might wait for a summit finish to go again. The final rider I was going to put in the break is Alessandro de Marchi, but I think the final part of the Marie Blanque might be a bit steep for him and he might not make it over the top with the leaders. 

Instead, the final rider I'm going to throw in to the mix is Omar Fraile of Astana - winner of a stage for us in the 2018 Tour up the steep finish to Mende, holding off Alaphilippe of all people. He has been quiet so far in the Tour, is this his day to have a go? 

It will be an interesting stage for sure, it could well be a GC stage, with Pogacar looking to rip it up again and see if Roglic is on the ropes or not.. Nairo Quintana, MAL and Uran are all looking superb too, it will be interesting to see if they can keep it up. Same with Bardet and Martin, I think the French can't believe they have two riders still in with a great chance of a great result in this Tour, despite the collapse of Pinot, let's see if they can keep it up too. 

But I think the break will take the stage again so I'm throwing a few break darts and hopefully we'll get a few in the break. 

Recommendations: 

0.5pts e/w on Gregor Muhlberger at 40/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Omar Fraile at 125/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on David Gaudu at 33/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on Rudy Molard at 28/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on Daniel Martinez at 25/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Harold Tejada at 250/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Carapaz over Chaves and Carthy over Elissonde - 2pts at 0.92/1

Cherel over Vuillermoz - 1pt at 6/4 - I can't see why there is such a discrepancy between their prices, they should be the same price I think, Cherel won on stage 4, Vuillermoz on stage 6 and they finished together today..