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Published on Friday, 04 September 2020 18:50

TDF 2020 Stage 8

Cazères - Loudenvielle

September 5th, 141kms

The Tour arrives in the Pyrenees with two stages in the mountains, but disappointingly, neither stage finishes with a summit finish, both finishes coming at the end of a descent and flat run to the finish. 

It's a very brief trip to the Pyrenees, with actually the first half of this stage not even in the Pyrenees, but in the Haut Garonne. It's the second shortest stage of the race, after Paris, at just 141kms, but it packs quite the punch and it should be high intensity all day. They are climbing for the first 60kms, slowly and gently at first, but ending up on the Cat 1 Col de Menté, which is a tough start to the climbing, averaging 8.1% for 7kms. 

Then there's the double challenge towards the end of the stage that takes them over the Port de Bales, a HC climb, followed by the Cat 1 Cold de Peyresourde, which significantly has 8, 5 and 2 bonus seconds on offer at the summit, meaning we could see the break reeled in on time for one of the GC men to take the bonus. There's only 11.5kms to go once over the top of the Peyresourde, making for a fast and furious, helter-skelter charge to the finish. 

There is a small kicker from 2kms to go to the 1km to go marker, where we might see a late attack to try to take the stage, but the last 700m are flat, which means it will be a big effort to hold off the chasers all the way to the line. 

We snoozed through 4 1/2 hours of what we thought might be an exciting stage on Thursday with the summit finish, surely this one will be better? It looked very much like Ineos were trying to keep things from falling apart for them again on the Lusette, this time they will be under a lot more pressure.

It looked like J-V were just happy to let them get on with it and were saving the legs for the Pyrenees, if they want to put them under pressure, then they could start on the first climb of the day, the Col de Menté. It could well be that Ineos lose Van Baarle, Amador, Sivakov on the very first climb, leaving them with just Castro, Rowe, Kwiato and Carapaz for the HC climb of the Port de Balès, where, if J-V push hard enough, they might be just down to Carapaz and Bernal heading on to the final Cat 1 climb of the Peyresourde. 

Stage 7 Review

Well what a crazy start we had - Bora Hansgrohe decided to blow things up on the very first little Cat 3 climb, and the damage they did was considerable! All of the sprinters were shelled out the back and we had riders all over the road after less than 20kms, of what was supposed to be a sprinters' stage.. Ewan, Nizzolo, Pedersen, Kristoff, Viviani were well and truly dropped, Bennett held on a little longer, but he too succumbed.

Bennett's group dangled around 25" for a long time as Bora put everything in to it, and at one point they came to within about 20m of getting back on with 149.5kms to go.. then the road went uphill and the impetus went out of the chase again and the elastic snapped. Pretty soon the gap was over a minute and that was that.

It was truly an incredible turn of events and a masterclass on how to race 'outside of the book' from Bora. Everyone expected it to be a sprint day, some were worried about the winds and echelons later in the stage (rightly so, as we saw later on in the stage) but no one expected Bora to do what they did. 

But in the end, it was mostly for almost nothing.. Trentin beat Sagan at the intermediate sprint, to take 3pts away from Sagan, and then at the finish, Sagan unclipped after a bump and lost all momentum, finishing in 13th in the end and taking only 4 more points. 

But what a win, yet again, by Wout Van Aert. He is just incredible. It was almost fairytale time for EBH and Bryan Coquard, but Wout was just too strong yet again. He climbs with the best, he sprints with the best, he TTs with the best. Is there anything he can't do?! 

It was a disaster for Pogacar and Landa too, getting caught out in the cross-wind echelons that were forced by Ineos pushing hard at the front when the stage changed direction at Castres, like we knew was going to happen. Everyone knew it was going to happen, yet these guys, and several more, ended up getting caught out and losing 1'21" on the GC. Pogacar has tumbled down the standings and has handed the white jersey to Bernal.

Bernal and Ineos were impressive too in making those splits, but then there was bad luck for them too when Carapaz punctured and was unable to get back on as they raced through the last 10kms at breakneck speed. And suprisingly, Yates and Pinot survived the cross-winds, not surprisingly Mollema and Porte didn't. 

And we finally landed a profitable day thanks to Cees Bol finishing in front of Mads Pedersen, despite they being amongst the last riders over the line - a tiny 0.6pts profit, but it stops the rot at least. I'm glad I didn't go with a bunch of match bets today as it's likely most of them would have gone down the drain, but it kinda sums up how our Tour has been going so far that Bennett got beaten not in the sprint, but inside the first 25kms of the stage.  

The Route

A south-west run out of the Haute Garonne that climbs gradually from the start. The intermediate sprint comes after just 42.5kms, so it's likely we'll see DQS keep things together until then to allow Sam B to add to his points tally. Then we should a bit of action, as the road really starts to rise straight after the sprint, and climbs for the next 17kms to the top of the Col de Menté. 

It's a Cat 1 climb that is officially 6.9kms at 8.1%, but as there is a little descent in it the actual average is probably closer to 8.4%, with parts hitting over 10%. A fast 10km descent to Saint Beat and a roll along flat roads for about 15kms as they loop north a little to Mauleon Barousse takes them to the foot of the main climb of the day, the HC Port de Bales. 

The Port de Bales is officially 11.7kms at 7.7%, but they will have been climbing for 20kms from the valley. There are some easy parts on the climb, two kilometres are around 4.6% average, but there are also some steeper sections, with three kilometers that hit 9-10%. Ther last 3kms average 7.1% and at the top there are 20pts for the KOM winner. 

The long descent off the Bales goes on for 15kms, steep and twisty at first, then a bit easier as they reach the middle part, then really quite steep again as they hit the last 5kms of the descent. It could be an opportunity for a good descender to try to take a bit of a lead out of his rivals starting the final climb to the Peyresourde. 

The Peyresourde offers 10pts at the top, but more importantly the 8-5-2 bonus seconds, so it is sure to be keenly fought for. It's a pretty steady 9.7kms at 7.8% and it tops out with just 11.5kms left to go, 8.5kms of which are descending. There are quite a few hairpins and tight bends on the descent towards the finish, especially between 4 and 3kms to go but once over the hill at 1km to go the road straightens up a bit

The road flattens a little for a kilometre, then there's a small little hill to get over, it's a kilometre at about 3%, so nothing major, but with tired legs all round it could be used for a late attack.. once down the 300m descent at the other side there's just 700m to the line. There's one last right-hand bend with 300m to go then a straight run to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

All of the section below up until the XXs was written before we saw what happened today.. I think most of it's still valid so I'm not going to rewrite it in the time I have to get this out, but will address whether I think things have changed because of what we saw today.. 

Of the two stages in the Pyrenees, this is the one that the GC men are probably more worried about - Sunday's stage looks like it could be one for the breakaway men to get a long lead and the GC men ride at a steady pace. This stage could be wild though - there is scope for JV to put Ineos (and all the rest) under sever pressure on the first Cat 1 (Col de Menté) and for it to be a very select GC group that goes on to fight out the rest of the stage. If you're on a bad day today, you could lose an enormous amount of time. 

There is scope for some dropped men to get back on board the front group in the 20kms from the top of the Menté to the start of climbing again, but if you were in trouble on the first climb, you won't last long on the HC Balés. There's a good chance that the break won't get much of a lead at all, what with the intermediate sprint early in the race and the bonus seconds available at the top of the Peyresourde, so I think I will disregard breakaway riders for now, if they have any sense they'll be saving the legs for Sunday. 

So what's going to happen? Well, Ineos will try to control it for a while on the Menté, but M-S will probably want to control things too, as race leaders. J-V might let them at it on the bottom slopes approaching the climb, but then there are 2kms at over 9% before they even reach the categorised part of the climb, then a short descent before a pretty steady 7.5-8% for the next 7kms to the summit - could things kick off before we even reach the categorised part of the climb?

We might see J-V wait until maybe 3-4kms from the top and then come to the front to rip things up and put a lot of guys out the back door. They will look to isolate the likes of Bernal, Pogacar and Pinot early on, and it's very possible that if they get over the top of the climb with Wout Van Aert still with them, he blasts it down the descent and along the valley to the bottom of the Bales, holding, or even increasing the gaps to those behind. 

Then we will see George Bennett and Robert Gesink take over, and will really look to put more of their rivals under pressure, especially on the steeper 9-10% sections half-way up. It's here they will also try to get rid of the likes of Alaphilippe, Buchmann if he isn't 100% yet, and maybe the likes of Yates if he shows any signs of weakness, Bardet, Porte, Mollema, Uran, Higuita and the other 'fringe' riders on the GC

Full gas down the other side and straight on to the Peyresourde. It will be hard to get back on if you were dropped on the Bales, as the guys who are still at the front will be the strongest in the race, and will not let up, even on the descent. The final climb should see J-V stamp their authority on the race, with Kuss and Dumoulin leading Roglic as they increase the gaps to those behind.

The question then is, what happens next? Does Roglic attack at the top of the Peyresourde, try to get a 20-30" gap and try to hold it all the way to the line? It's very, very possible - he's a reasonable descender, and there aren't too many tricky bends on the descent, he could just TT it all the way to the finish and take extra time out of everyone and maybe just put the race to bed. Dumoulin and maybe Kuss can sit there as anchors on the chase and slow it down.

XX

Well, so that's what I'd written, and I don't think I'll change my thinking much. Although, the GC men had a really hard day today, so did everyone.. some guys sat behind were able to take it a lot easier than others though, just buried themselves down the back and were towed to the line 20 minutes down. We might get some who saved their legs today try to go in the break, but I still think it will be tight as to whether they make it or not. 

Egan Bernal said this about tomorrow when interviewed today "Tomorrow and after tomorrow we have two complicated stages. We’ve just had two hard stages. Tomorrow, it’ll be a GC day for sure. We’ll have to be very focused, try and not lose any time, take the opportunity if there’s any, and if not, stay quiet.”

That last part is interesting - stay quiet.. Looks like Ineos might be wanting to do more of that they did on stage 6, controlling the pace at the front in order to just keep everything together for now. Don't lose time. Take it to the third week and see what Roglic has left then. We are entering unchartered territory here, with this the longest most of these guys have ridden consecutively in over a year. Could we start to see chinks appear in Roglic's armour, just as Bernal starts to come in to his own? It should make it interesting over the next two weeks for sure. 

So back to where I was above.. The only big difference to my thinking about what could happen would be if Tadej Pogacar or Mikel Landa decide they want to try to gain some of the time back that they lost today. It might be a bit rash for Poga to go out all guns blazing tomorrow, but a big attack from him near the top of the Peyresourde might just be let go by Roglic.

It would force the likes of Guillaume Martin, Bernal, Pinot Yates and Quintana to chase him as they won't want to let him back in to the race for the podium. Dumoulin can also sit back and let them scrap it out and then just cruise back up with Rogla once they have worn themselves out. Pogacar is capable of getting a gap quickly, and he is a fast descender, but it will be a big ask to get away and stay away all the way to the finish.. He might be better off saving his legs for another day, and chancing his luck in the possible GC sprint finish, he'd have a decent chance of a good result there instead. 

Betway have just opened with Roglic the 100/30 favourite, with Poga at 13/2, Alap at 12/1, Yates and Dani Martinez at 14/1 and Bernal at 16/1.. And of those, Alaphilippe at 12/1 probably makes the most appeal right now. Yes, Roglic might well just skip away from them all on the climb and solo to victory, but Alaphilippe, as long as he's still in the mix would beat him in a sprint finish here, it's not an uphill sprint, which would suit Rogla more.

Alap looks angry at the moment, first being stripped of yellow like that, and then getting cut up (not really) in the sprint and throwing a bit of a hissy fit.. He'll want that jersey back, and as long as he stays with the leaders over all the climbs, he would easily outsprint Yates again and take the jersey back off of him. 

Roglic and Pogacar should be close to him as well, and it may even be that we see Roglic attack on the Peyresourde and Poga follow him (or vice-versa) and the two of them could come home together. But I think we will see about 15-20 guys come to the finish together, and if so, Thibaut Pinot might be involved in the sprint finish too, he doesn't pack a bad sprint in these sorts of situations. 

As I said above, we might see a break make it, if Ineos do indeed slow things down early in the race and JV and M-S decide to let them control things early on.. the break could build up a lead of 8-10 mins and might stay away. Looking at the prices though, I can't be backing Hermans and the like now at 28/1.. Maybe once the other books open later on we might get more sensible prices, but 20/1 on Kamna (injured!!) and 28/1 on Hermans (recovering and not seen so far trying to get in the breaks when we thought he would!) is just ridiculous. 

A few that were of slight interest to me though were: Luis Leon Sanchez - he is now nearly 10 minutes down on GC. He seems to be riding ok though and made it home with the lead group today, and didn't have to do a tap all day. He possibly will try to go on the attack tomorrow, maybe with the view to being someone MAL can jump up to with an attack on the Peyresourde, but if not, he could make it all the way. Also, if the pace isn't crazy in the GC group, but they have reeled in the break, he's one that might fancy taking a flier off the front ahead of the descent, he's a good descender and might just hold on. At 200/1, it's definitely worth a shot, he's only 66/1 with Betway, which I was going to take.. 

The others are Nans Peters and Warren Barguil - Peters tried to bridge to the break that tried to get away early on stage 6, but they were reeled in, like all the break attempts. 100/1 is alright with Bet365, he's only 40s with Betway.

And finally, Warren Barguil - he's almost 6 minutes down, so might be left attack on the Bales or Peyresourde and might be let go. He might be interested in starting a KOM push, as no one has taken control of that yet, so if he can go and take the points on the Bales he might keep going. He also can win from a sprint as we saw in the French nationals last year and the stage he won in Foix in the 2017 TDF (and almost in the stage to Chambery when he was done by Uran stuck in his biggest gear). 40/1 with Betway, 25/1 with Bet365, the 40/1 is alright, 25/1 is as low as I'd go. 

Roglic is the obvious favourite, and it might be worth keeping an eye on the in-play betting, but 100/30 is a bit short as I'm not sure he is as effective in a flat sprint as he is in an uphill one. Pogacar is sure to fight back, and he is sure to be aggressive in the finale, it might be worth taking on Roglic in a matchbet, he might outsprint Rogla for the time bonuses in an effort to get back some time. 

I'm also going to have a nibble on Warren Barguil for the KOM, he might just start a push for it tomorrow, I can see him nipping out to get points on the big climbs, and being let do so by the GC men. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Julian Alaphilippe at 12/1 general

0.5pts e/w on Nans Peters at 100/1 with 365/Unibet

0.5pts e/w on Warren Barguil at 40/1 with Betway/Unibet

0.35pts win on Luis Leon Sanchez at 200/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Warren Barguil to win the KOM at 16/1 with various.

Matchbets

Pogacar to beat Roglic - 2pts at 21/20 with Betway

Valverde to beat Higuita and Dumoulin to beat Chaves - 2pts at 0.95/1 with Bet365