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Published on Thursday, 03 September 2020 17:50

TDF 2020 Stage 7

Millau - Lavaur

September 4th, 168kms 

Another semi-rest day for the majority of the pack. After a lumpy start for 73kms it's then downhill for 50kms followed by 40kms of a flat run to the finish. It looks like another day for the sprinters, with a long flat run to the finish.

Millau is a picturesque little town on the route to the Med from central France, and I remember 15+ years ago when driving to the south having to drop down in to Millau and then crawl up the hill on the other side of the valley, stuck behind slow-moving campervans and trucks. Then they built the Viaduct de Millau, and it is incredible. You just fly across from one side of the valley to the other in no time at all, and the views are spectacular. Not just of the valley, but the incredible architectural achievement of the bridge, it's amazing. 

Well they pass along the valley underneath it at the start of this stage, so we're sure to see plenty of heli shots of it. From there on we'll see a good battle for the break though, as the rolling hills around there will make it hard for the peloton to hold back the break

Stage 6 Review

We finally got a proper battle for the breakaway after a dead day yesterday, with Nico Roche doing what he promised he would and instigating the first move. He was joined by Powless, Van Avermaet, Cavagna, EBH, Herrada and co. but with Van Avermaet only 3'17" down on GC they kept a reasonably tight lead on the break, with the gap getting a max lead of around 6 and a half minutes.

And of course, with the luck we've been having so far, we didn't have anyone in the break, Trek didn't even get any of their men in it, very disappointing after being told they would be trying. But then again, most guys when interviewed like Benoot  said before the stage they were going to try to get in the break. De Gendt though said he probably wasn't going to go as he thought the finish was too hard for him. 

With the lead around 6 mins with 125kms to go Lutsenko was 7/4 fav in play, with Herrada at 11/4, Roche at 9/2 and Roglic at 7/1 4th fav, as the bookies switched their mindset to the break staying away. But as soon as the peloton hit the first climb of the day, the short Cat 3, they immediately took a minute out of their gap, and the gap went under 4 mins with 34kms to go as they faced the Lusette. Then it tumbled to just over 2 1/2 minutes and suddenly Roglic was 11/8 favourite to win the stage. 

Then Ineos came to the front - and totally killed the stage. Maybe they felt they needed to keep things calm to give Bernal an easier day for now, maybe they didn't want Roglic sprinting away to a stage win and time bonuses at the finish, but while they were at the front, the time gap went up by almost a minute and that was enough to give Lutsenko the stage.

Most annoying seeing as we had backed him earlier in the race, but when I picked previous riders I backed for today, I left him out of it. Another disappointing day, with no one in the break and the Roglic/Pogacar bets getting torpedoed by Ineos's damb squib of a chase and M-S and J-V's decision to just let them at it and not push the pace.

At least the main treble landed, with Buchmann beating Mas in the lottery of a finish by one place and Mollema beat Uran and Lutsenko beating everyone. Pulled 4.3pts back there, but Alaphilippes stupid surge near the end of the stage took him ahead of Roglic who finished down the pack, so it ended up a 5pt loss again. We need this to turn around soon, I've never gone so long without a winner, it's getting very annoying, and costly. 

The Route

A picturesque run from the Aveyron down to the Tarn, leaving from under the stunning Viaduct de Millau and rolling over over the constant undulations to Lavaur as they head closer to the Pyrenees. It's a really wavy and hilly opening 60kms, with plenty little hills for a break to get away on, but the intermediate sprint comes at the bottom of a hill after 58kms.. It's probably too far this time for the sprinters' teams to keep all breaks under control in order to fight out the sprint points, but they might try to ensure only 3 or 4 go in the break so that there are still plenty points left to fight for.

Straight after the sprint they start on the Col de Peyronnenc, a long climb at 14.5kms, but not too steep at 3.9%. They then descend very gradually for the next 60kms almost, interrupted by a little Cat 4 climb along the way, but once they hit Castres and turn right then it's more or less dead flat for the last 40kms. 

There is a little bump with 5kms to go, but nothing much to worry about, and then it's a flat and straight run for the last 3.5kms. It looks to be a very uncomplicated finish with a long straight line from 5.5 to 2.4kms to go, a slight turn right and then another dead straight road for 2kms, with a roundabout to get through with just over a kilometre to go and then a final little turn right with 400m to go and a straight sprint to the line. 

It's going to be a hot one - up to 33 degrees, one of the hottest stages so far, more like a day in July. The wind will hamper the break all day as it is coming from the south-east, at around 10-14mph, but it then turns in to a tailwind for the last 46kms after they turn at Castres, and it will be a tailwind in the sprint too, especially in the last 2kms. 

Contenders and Favourites

So we're back for another sprint. And I do think it will end in a sprint, DQS, Sunweb and Lotto will probably ensure it does, and it looks to be the least complicated run-in of the race so far for the sprinters teams. 

Bennett has achieved what looks to have been one of his biggest ambitions for this race, landing the green jersey, even sacrificing his chance of the stage win on Wednesday in order to shadow Sagan and make sure he finished in front of him. So what does he do now? He was made the 5/2 favourite for this in the very early prices that Betway came out with before the start of today's stage, with Ewan at 10/3, so they think that he will be back to going all out for the stage win. 

He looked very fast at the finish when he finally left Sagan and started sprinting, but it was too late, WVA is too strong to pull back 3 bike-lengths in 150m. He is also starting to look dominant in the intermediate sprints, with Morkov leading him out and taking some of the bonus seconds off his rivals.

You would think that DQS will get lots of help with the chase, as Bol, Ewan, Nizzolo, Coquard, Sagan and the rest will fancy their chances in the sprint, so they might be spared a lot of power for the last 10kms. With that run-in, they might just take it up with 5kms to go and boss the front, saving Asgreen for taking it up after they get through the roundabout with just over 1km to go, then Morkov launching it with 400m, releasing Sam with 200m or maybe even less to go this time.

He needs to jump fast and hard to get a small gap on Ewan as Morkov backs off and hopes that he can hold on. The fact that it is a tailwind this time will turn things a little bit more in his favour and away from Ewan, Ewan definitely benefitted from coming late in to the headwind on Sunday. 

Has Ewan lost his edge? He went from absolutely smashing them all in the previous sprint to struggling to get up in the right position Wednesday, even with a team-mate trying to help him to get up and ended up finishing 8th. I thought he might struggle on that finish though, it was a very tiring run-in and a messy sprint. I don't think he's lost his edge though and is sure to be Bennett's biggest danger again.

It was interesting though to see how easy he gave up on the intermediate sprint today, especially as Roger Kluge had ridden off the front in order to try to take some points, we guess, off of Bennett to help Ewan's Green Jersey ambitions.. but what did Ewan do? He got a leadout to about 500m to go, then didn't even get involved in the sprint, finishing about 50m behind the sprint. Is he feeling the effects of a tough opening week too? 

Cees Bol is moving up the pecking order in terms of his chances of a win, he's come close twice now, with 3rd place in the first sprint and 2nd in the 3rd sprint. His leadout up the final kilometer on Wednesday was excellent, Casper Pedersen barking orders and taking over the pulling himself, but Bol unfortunately came up against a Wout who decided to go for the stage that day and just couldn't hold on. I don't think he has the out-and-out speed on a flat finish like this, he prefers it with more of a challenging finale and an uphill pull. He could well take 3rd or 4th again. 

Sagan is sure to keep fighting of course, but he just hasn't shown the speed so far in the race to suggest he will suddenly start beating the top two guys. Giacomo Nizzolo will surely do better than he did in the last sprint, he never really got in a blow as he was way too far back hitting the last 500m, despite being well placed for most of the last 10kms.

This should be an easier one for him to find a wheel and stay on it, but maybe he's starting to feel the effects of two tough races in the Italian nationals and the Euros and the tough opening week, it might have been a factor in him not being able to get closer on what should have been a suitable finish for him. Can't see him beating the top two, but will be battling for places 3rd to 6th. 

Bryan Coquard, Luca Mezgec, Clement Venturini, Hugo Hofstetter, Edward Theuns/Mads Pedersen/Jasper Suyven (I think it should be Pedersen's chance to sprint, but they might go with Theuns for a flatter finish like this), Alexander Kristoff, Matteo Trentin have all been going close, but I can't see any of them muscling in on the top 3 here, unless we get some kind of dramatic accident. Elia Viviani just looks like he has lost all interest in sprinting at the moment, he doesn't look happy. 

Will Wout sprint again? Well Betway's early prices has him as joint 3rd fav at 8/1 with Cees Bol.. You would think no, that he's had his fun and he will need to save his legs for the tough up-coming weekend of climbing in the Pyrenees. But with the way he's riding he's likely to just float around the head of the bunch in the closing kilometres and if he finds himself in the front 10 with 500m to go you can be sure he will go for it. And he would probably going close. 

It's risky going for Sam again tomorrow, but I think that his confidence is surging now, and with Alaphilippe out of yellow, DQS don't have to take as much responsibility out on the course and should be able to save their men for closer to the finish.

I think their powerhouse leadout will get it right this time and Bennett will be launched with a bit of a gap to Ewan, we might even see Sagan battle for his wheel and nudge Ewan down the line, and Bennett will easily beat Sagan. Bol will be a danger, but I just don't think he has the speed. He's got the green jersey, now next target is to land that stage win. 

Betway have changed their minds though in the space of about 7 hours, flip-flopping Ewan in to 9/4 fav, with Bennett at 100/30, with Bol and Wout at 8/1, Nizzolo at 12/1 and Sagan at 16s. Sam at 100/30 looks alright to me, you might even get 4/1 on Betfair later on. 

Recommendations

2pts on Sam Bennett at 100/30  with Betway

Matchbets

Bol to beat Pedersen and Coquard to beat Mezgec - 2pts at 1.29/1 with Bet365