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Published on Monday, 31 August 2020 19:00

TDF 2020 Stage 4

Sisteron - Orcieres Merlette

September 1st, 160.5kms 

A stage with the description 'hilly' doesn't sound too bad, right? Well that description is a little loose, seeing as it ends in a Cat 1 climb that rises to over 1,800m! It should be yet another stunningly beautiful stage though as they head north to the ski station at Orcieres Merlette. 

As we have seen already with this Tour, the ASO weren't messing about when they designed this year's route, and really do seem to have taken a leaf out of the Vuelta's book. We've already had the mountainous stage 2 over two Cat 1s and today they face the first summit finish of the race, where we will finally get a proper look at who is going well or not.

There was, of course, carnage on stage 1 and there are a lot of walking wounded - Pavel Sivakov, Thibaut Pinot, David De La Cruz, Wout Poels, Domenico Pozzovivo and so on and so on. We'll see what way they are feeling 3 days later as they hit the final climb. Thibaut looked to be really struggling to me on the Col d'Eze, spit and dribble rolling down his chin, as happens when a rider is so much on the limit he can't even spit his mouth clean.. But he got through it and has had two another two sleeps to recover. 

Then there are the likes of Primoz Roglic, Egan Bernal, Nairo Quintana and Dan Martin, who came in to the race nursing injuries - Primoz and the boys knocked it back Sunday when Alap went off the front, I think if he was 100% he'd have gone after him to lay down a marker and test out some of his weaker and injured opponents. They were happy to just nurse everyone home, especially after Dumoulin had hit the deck again, and in fact they seemed happy to not have to take up the jersey so early. 

Dan Martin was dropped on the lower slopes of the Col d'Eze first time around, he really doesn't look well at all. Egan seeemed to escape Saturday very well though, I don't think he went down at all, and whateve back issues he had, he has now had 4 more days for it to recover and for him to work his way back to fitness. 

Stage 3 Review

A small break of three Frenchmen went up the road, Oliver Naesen was originally with them but quickly dropped out of it. The rain and hail came again in parts of the course, making it a bit sketchy in places, but thankfully there were no major incidents. Cosnefroy and Perez fought it out for the KOM points but then sat up and left Jerome Cousin take off by himself for the rest of the stage, and he was only pulled back with 17kms to go. 

The pace was very sedate all day, and with 15kms to go they were still only doing 36kmph and the peloton was bunched wide across the road. Cofidis and DQS were the most prominent at the front, with NTT and Ineos also quite visible. The pace finally picked up with 10kms to go but no team really took control, the headwind in to their faces meant that no team really wanted to, or could string it out. In the end, it was a very messy sprint on a narrow finish that didn't give many guys chances if you weren't in the first 10 or so hitting the final 300m. 

Nizzolo struck out first with 250m to go, Bennett came off his wheel with 200m to go and looked like he was going to take his first Tour stage win. But Caleb Ewan came like an exocet behind him, weaving brilliantly between Nizzolo and barrier and came out from behind Bennet to win it comfortably in the end. Giacomo Nizzolo justified our faith in sticking with him, easily taking 3rd, with Hugo Hofstetter taking a surprise 4th place ahead of Sagan. As I told you he would, Edward Theuns was the sprinter for Trek today, he got up for 6th, so if you took the in-play bet on him to beat Wout van Aert that won, as did the Kristoff to beat Pedersen bets, Pedersen lead out Theuns and sat up, Kristoff could only finish 15th in the sprint but that was enough to win that match bet too. 

Wout Van Aert actually came down in that crash with 6kms to go, so that took him out of the sprint anyway, but that crash could have been danger for Roglic, he was very far back in the bunch and got caught out behind WVA, it took him 1.5kms to get back in to the peloton. Cees Bol could only manage 7th after getting a great leadout to the last 300m, and Mateo Trentin, Bryan Coquard and Niccolo Bonifazio filled the other top 10 places. 

Disappointment of the day was Elia Viviani, especially considering his Cofidis team were working for all of the last 20kms to get him in a good position for the sprint. They had numbers, and a good road position from a long way out, but when push came to shove, Viviani just capitulated. He lost his leadout men with 500m to go, made no effort to get back to them and when finding himself behind a wall of sprinters with 250m to go, he just sat up and freewheeled home.

If you took the in-play bet then we finished about a half a point down, Viviani cost us 3.5pts. Still nothing in it in the GC, Roglic is 9/4, Bernal 5/2, with Dumoulin 10/1.. Dumoulin looks good to me though, he fairly flew up the Quatre Chemins after his crash on Sunday to regain contact, he must have good legs.. 

The Route

A gentle drag upwards for the first 67kms, where they actually gain almost 1,000m in altitude as they head in to the Haute Alpes. There is a sprint point after 51.5kms, so we might see some of the green jersey contenders trying to get in the break again, it would be a good idea for Sam Bennett to try to go, as no doubt, Peter Sagan will. 

With 60kms gone, even though they will have been climbing from the flag drop, they hit the first categorised climb, the Cat 3 Col du Festre (7.6kms at 5.3%. It's not too steep at 5.3%, but 7.6kms is long and we might see the grupetto form already, depending on how fast they push it at the front. I think though they will be taking it pretty easy, so it should mostly stay together, bar probably Bonifazio, who seems to be dropped as soon as the road rises even the slightest bit. 

The road rolls along for the next 80kms as they dip in to the Isere to take in the Cat 4 Cote de Corps before returning to the Hautes-Alpesfor the two short Cat 3s. From about 5kms after the Pont du Fosse, with 10kms to go, the road starts to rise as they approach the lower slopes of the final climb. The categorised part is 7.1kms at 6.7%, so not a back breaker by any means, and it's pretty steady. The first kilometre is only 5.4%, but then it hits 8.2% for the next kilometre, before settling back to a very steady 6.5% for the rest of the climb, staying at 7% for the last kilometre. 

The Contenders:

The first summit finish of the race, but how is it going to pan out? Can the break make it all the way? I think it has a pretty decent chance - the GC teams will be happy I think to take it easy for most of the day and give their walkng wounded another day off for most of the day, then fight it out over the last 6kms or so - it just depends on how much of a lead the break has starting the final climb. More than 3 minutes and they should make it, any less and they'll probably be caught.

 Jumbo Visma and Ineos will probably have no interest in stringing it out all day over some Cat 3s and 4s, they might let DQS do that to look after Alaphilippe and maybe set him up for another attack on the final climb. Jumbo clearly don't want the jersey yet, Rogla has made that clear, so it's unlikely that they will want to pull back the break and waste energy this early in the race.

It was also a bit of a warning maybe with regards to Rogic's health that he found himself so far back in the bunch today with just 6kms to go, if that crash has been a bit faster or if he'd got tangled up a bit more rather than just stopping behind Wout, he could have lost some time today. Why was he so far back? Is he not feeling great? Everyone knows GC men stay at the front until the 3km to go marker and then relax. 

Alaphilippe has opened as the 9/2 favourite with Betway, the first with prices out as I write this, and they are obviosuly thinking that the break won't make it based on their book. Adam Yates is the 9/1 second favourite, with Primoz Roglic, with Pogacar and Higuita next at 14/1. 

Let's look at the GC men first, seeing as that's how it's been priced up. Alaphilippe couldn't have had a bigger target on his back on Sunday, everyone expected him to attack, everyone knew probably about where he'd attack, yet he attacked and no one, bar Hirschi went after him. Looks like JV had played their tactics wrong by tearing it up the Col d'Eze the first time around, it meant that Bennett and Kuss were done when the action hotted up the second time up the hill, and Dumoulin was being exposed to the wind, it's why he got clipped by Kwiatkowski, he was not being looked after like he should have been and was looking to position himself. 

It is interesting that no one like Bernal, Roglic, Pogacar, Carapaz or any of the other GC men went after Alaphilippe, or even had a dig to test the others, they seemed to totally disregard Alaphilippe, like they forgot what he did in the Tour last year. Maybe Roglic couldn't yet, maybe Bernal too.. but what about Pogacar, Formolo, Quintana, Lopez or the like? The only one that gave it a go was Adam Yates and he showed tremendous form to shoot across to Alaphilippe in just 40". They were all prepared to watch and wait, when they could have stolen a few valuable seconds. 

Can Alaphilippe repeat the feat? Of course he can. He finally showed somewhere close to the form we expect from him and he was hugely motivated to win the stage to dedicate it to his dad who passed away in June. His acceleration was textbook - he had Jungels string things out, he pulled off and Kwiato took up the pulling. Alap left a small gap between him and Kwiato until they hit a steeper section around a corner and he jumped, knowing Kwiato couldn't match his acceleration and he got a gap quickly as the others looked at each other.

It was then a timetrial to the top, with a bunch that shirked the pulling duties enough to give Alap the gap he needed to hold it to the finish. He almost got caught by Hirshi in the sprint, but just held on. There is a steep section just at the bottom of the climb with 6kms to go that hits 8.2%, but I think that's too early for him to go. Between 4 and 3kms to go it is around 7.4%, and that might be a better launch area for him, or even better, on the hairpin with 2.4kms to go, accelerating through it and trying to hold it to the line, if there's a stall again amongst GC men. 

But I think it's unlikely he'll get away with it a second time, there will be plenty of guys lined up on his wheel waiting to go with him, especially if we see the likes of Jungels coming to the front with him in tow. I'm not sure he'll have it all his own way this time, and if he does go early, whoever goes with him can sit on his wheel and let him do the work, as he's the yellow jersey, and could outsprint him at the finish. 

Adam Yates was impressive in going across to him and he has to have a big chance of gaining revenge on Alap with an uphill sprint, rather than on the flat like Sunday. He can either be the one who goes first this time, this gradient of a finish is perfect for him, between 7-8%, and if he jumps like he did and quickly gets 10-15" while Alap looks at the GC men and they look at each other, they might not see him again. Also, if he is with a few other guys, like Alap, you'd fancy him in the uphill sprint a lot more. 

Who knows what's the story with Primoz, he is still wearing that bandage on his left arm, whether it's a bluff or not.. JV did try to put the pressure on a little on Sunday with George Bennett, Sepp Kuss and Robert Gesink (even though he too is a bit injured) puling at the front. But then it all fell apart for them a little and Primoz was left with just a crashed Dumoulin in the run in to the finish - what would have happened if either of them would have had a puncture or mechanical on the run in?

I think I'm going to watch and wait with Primoz tomorrow to see how he goes. Especially now that I see he has been chopped to just 5/1 as Bet365 have opened with him at that price, Betway just fall in to line. Too short for me for sure now. 

Sergio Higuita packs a good sprint, that's for sure. I just didn't think he was a good bet on Sunday for the stage, although he almost proved me wrong. I think his sprint at a finish like this will be far more suitable and he would have to be one of the favourites if we get a small group of 15-20 GC favourites come to the line together.

He outsprinted Egan Bernal on the uphill finish at the stage 4 of the Tour of Colombia, but then was outsprinted by Pinot in stage 7 of the Dauphine. It might just be a little on the steep side for him though, a slightly easier gradient would have suited his sprint a lot better. He is sure to be close though. 

Thibaut Pinot would have been one of my favourites for this had he not crashed on stage 1, he doesn't look 100% at all at the moment and I think he could be just looking to get through this stage without losing time. No bet at just 14/1. 

What of the Ineos plan? Well, maybe we could see them try to check whether Roglic and some of the others who have crashed are fighting fit or not.. But the problem is that Amadaor and Sivakov are in no shape to rip it up at the moment, so they are left with Castroviejo, Kwiato, Rowe and Van Baarle to do the pulling, which means they'll probably only have Castro left with Bernal and Cara as the race enters the last 3-4kms.

Will Carapaz give it a go? It's very possible - this is the sort of finish he loves, and with everyone watching Bernal and Roglic, he might well be one that takes off. The finish to stage 3 of the Tour de Pologne had a similar gradient and he jumped early and held off Diego Ulissi. I'm not sure Bernal will be on the offensive, he'll be happy to bide his time and just mark for now I think. 

Miguel Angel Lopez will be hoping to avoid skidding in to hedges and poles this time around, and if he does, he too could have a chance.. He does seem to have lost his explosiveness of late though, will he have refound it and will it be good enough to take him away from the likes of Roglic, Alapahilippe and Yates? I don't think so.. but he is capable of maybe following a move that might be let go by the GC men - so the likes of Yates and Alaphilippe maybe.. and he'd have a decent chance in a sprint against them. 

Tadej Pogacar is another who could have a big chance of course, he outsprinted Lutsenko and Yates to the top of Jabel Hafeet in the UAE tour on a similar gradient after a similar drag to the line (10.8kms at 6.8%) and outsprinted Valverde, Martin, Teuns and 5 other guys in the finish of stage 2 of Valenciana on a finish that averaged 8% for 2kms and also won solo on stage 4. Pogacar has been sprinting in every finish of the race already, he's been testing his legs I think for this stage.. 17th in the bunch sprint in stage 1, 5th in the sprint for 4th Sunday and 22nd in today's sprint too. 14/1 is a pretty decent price on him I think, he is sure to be there or thereabouts if it does come down to a GC shootout. 

As for the rest, what do the likes of Formolo, Mollema, Porte, Martin and Quintana do? Do they try their luck in the break? Well they won't be let get a big enough gap, so that's probably pointless. Should they attack closer to the bottom of the climb, and try a long attack to see if the GC men let them go? It's unlikely, as JV and Ineos, and maybe even Mitchelton and UAE are likely to be keeping the pace high enough to deter attacks. Formolo might be needed to look after Pogacar anyway. So it's unlikely we'll see any of them winning. Dan Martin would have loved this stage finish, but he looks in terrible shape. 

So break candidates - the race is still reasonably together at the top, 46 guys are within 4 minutes of the lead, so it's unlikely they'll be let get much freedom. But beyond that you have the likes of Ilnur Zakarin, Nelson Oliveira, Diego Rosa, Felix Grosschartner, Lennard Kamna, Ben Hermans, Alessandro De Marchi, Lilian Calmejane, Gregor Muhlberger and Thomas De Gendt. Of those, Alessandro De Marchi, Ben Hermans and Gregor Muhlberger fit the bill for me as likely candidates who could finish it off so it's worth throwing a few break darts as well. 

It is going to be tight though I think, it all depends on how many, and who get in the break, if there are 10-15 guys from a mix of teams, they have a chance of making it. If there are 4 or 5, then chances are low. Then it will be the GC men will take over and we should see a great battle up the last 5kms.

I like how Yates looked, and there is obviously confidence from the car if you watched the footage from M-S from stage 2, Whitey basically said to Yates "Don't be afraid to go for it Adam", they know what sort of legs he has and that it was the right thing to do. I think we'll see him fly off the front again, there is a yellow jersey at stake after all (and KOM points at the top). I think Alaphilippe won't be far off either, but if he goes full gas from a long way out and is tracked by some of the punchy guys like Pogacar, he might just fade towards the end and be outsprinted. If Roglic though has been playing one mighty bluff and is really in the sort of form we saw in the Dauphine, then he'll probably just smoke them all. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Adam Yates at 12/1 with Betway

0.75pts e/w on Tadej Pogacar at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 25/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Ben Hermans at 66/1 with Unibet

0.5pts win on Gregor Muhlberger at 66/1

Matchbets

Lutsenko to beat Schachmann and Martinez to beat Barguil - 2pts at evens with Unibet/Bet365

Add Pogacar to beat Bernal at 2/5 to make it a 19/10 treble - 1pt on that

Yates to beat Alaphilippe - 1pt at 11/10 with Bet365

Higuita to beat Valverde and Roglic to beat Pinot - 2pts on the double at 19/20 with Unibet