Details

Published on Sunday, 30 August 2020 20:24

TDF 2020 Stage 3

Nice - Sisteron

August 31st, 198kms 

The last time the Tour visited Sisteron was when it was a departure town for a stage to Bourg-Les-Valance which was won in a bunch sprint by Mark Cavendish. This time the Tour arrives, but it looks like it will end in another sprint finish.

They head north-west away from their base for the first three days in Nice and thread a pretty straight north-west route for almost the entire stage. They climb for the first 80kms more or less, and then it's downhill more or less for the next 118kms to the finish in Sisteron. There are lots and lots of little climbs all day today, but nothing much to worry about, three Cat 3s and a Cat 4, so unless the peloton miscalculates and let's the break get too big of a gap, this one is going to end in fast and furious uphill gallop to the line. 

Stage 2 Review

Small break went up the road early on, and it unexpectedly contained our man Matteo Trentin, as well as Peter Sagan, Toms Skujins, Michael Gogl, Benoit Cosnefroy, Kasper Asgreen and Lucas Postlberger. Trentin actually beat Sagan to the intermediate sprint but then suffered a puncture and dropped back to the peloton. The GC men kept things under control, without pushing too hard, so the walking wounded were let off a bit likely today like I thought they would

The break were caught just as they started on the Col d'Eze where we didn't see any action at the front, as expected, everyone was keeping their powder try for the final time up the climb. There was some drama though when Martinez crashed on a bend on the descent, but Hugh Carthy helped him back in.

The final time up the Quatre Chemin Julian Alaphilippe suddenly sprang out of the pack and Mark Hirschi of all people went after him and they quickly got a gap of about 10". Adam Yates took off and very quickly closed the gap and the three of them worked well together. The gap went up and hovered around 21", but then as they approached the last kilometre the gap tumbled as the three up front stalled a little as is the way.

Alaphilippe kicked as the peloton came breathing down their neck, Hirschi was way too far off his wheel and had to make up about 5m to just get back on his wheel and he almost caught him, but the line came just in time for Alaphilippe. Hirschi took a great 2nd with Yates coming home in 3rd. Higuita backers were spared the 'What if' anguish as Greg Van Avermaet pipped him in the bunch sprint for 4th. 

It was brilliant from Alaphilippe again though, jumping away when everybody expected him to and still make it stick. But what a job Jungels did for him in the last moments before he jumped, he was superb to keep him right at the front and keep the pace high, because once he stopped and Alap jumped, no one else wanted to take up the chase. Ineos and JV were just happy to let Alap take the jersey it seems, Roglic actually said after that it was the 'perfect result' for them. 

Dumoulin got cut up accidentally by Kwiato, and ended up on the ground on the Quatre Chemins, Wout dropped back to help him and as a result dropped out of contention himself, after trading to 11/10 favourite for the stage about 10 mins before that. You wonder whether the result would have been different had Dumoulin not hit the ground and Wout was in with a chance.. 

Shit day for the bets again but at least we got stakes back on Gilbert and didn't risk too much on the overall bets.. In the end, the most obvious guy was the bet after all.  

The Route

They start by heading north for about 7kms then turn at Carros to start heading south-west, over the wonderfully named Tourrettes-Sur-Loup (Tourettes on a Wolf!) the first of many little uncategorised hills they will face today. The break should be gone by here and they can then settle in to climbing for more or less the next 45kms. 

Shortly after Le Bar Sur Loup they face another uncategorised hill, before starting on the first categorised climb of the day, the Col du Pilon (8.4kms at 5.1%) and after a very short descent they are straight on to the next Cat 3, the Col de la Faye (5.3kms at 4.8%). Once over the top they keep climbing though for another 150m in altitude gain, to the highest point on the course, the uncategorised Col de Valferriere. They crest that with 118kms to go, almost all of which is a gentle descent towards Sisteron. 

The descent is interrupted though by the Col Des Legues, another Cat 3 climb of 6.9kms at 5.4%, the longest climb of the day. The summit is still a long 81kms from the finish, so in the unlikely event that sprinters find themselves in trouble here, they've plenty of time to get back on. There's one last little interruption with 35kms to go, the Cat 4 Col de l'Orme, but they'll barely even register it. 

They continue to descend gently towards Sisteron until 13kms to go, when the road starts to rise gently again and continues to climb very gently all the way to the finish line. The approach in to town looks pretty straight-forward though, on paper it is one of the most straight and uneventful last 5kms they are likely to see. There's barely a turn in the road for the last 5kms, From about 3.5kms to go to about 1km to go the road rises slightly, but the last kilometer is almost dead flat as they skirt along the bank of the Durance.

The finish isn't the widest of roads, it will be pretty tight in the last kilometre, so positioning and timing are going to be crucial, you won't want to find yourself too far back or boxed in when things kick off. 

The weather is going to be good - 23 degrees and sunny, with no rain - but there is a headwind coming right in to their faces all day long, picking up to 10-12mph in the afternoon. This is going to make it a hard day in the break for the breakaway riders, and I don't think there will be too many putting their hands up in the morning to go on the attack. Also, it will make the sprint challenging - you'll have to time your sprint right, you don't want to be forced to start too early and get passed late on as you die in the head wind. 

Contenders and Favourites

The early prices have Caleb the 11/4 favourite, with Bennett at 7/2. Ewan had a rally hard day by his own admission on Saturday, crashing and having to fight all day to get back in contention. That obviously showed with him struggling to get in a blow in the sprint and finishing down in 19th place, being out-sprinted by the likes of Pogacar and Hugo Houle. His team also had a nightmare, losing John Degenkolb and seeing Philippe Gilbert spend the evening in hospital. 

Degenkolb will be a loss, he was a protector out on the road, especially in the last 10kms or so, making fast accelerations to get Ewan in to the right positions etc. Ewan actually crashed twice on the opening stage, had to wait a long time for a bike and then fought hard to get back on. He said he had time to recover, and although they didn't have all the guys they wanted at the finish, they got him in to a 'perfect' position with 1km to go..

But then he said all he remembers is everyone pulling their brakes in front of him and he nearly ran in to the back of Casper (Pedersen). 'If you put your brakes on with 1km to go in the Tour there is little chance of coming back'. He also said that getting the yellow jersey was his biggest goal in this Tour, so he was very disappointed with the way it turned out. He didn't mention anything about not having the legs for the sprint though, or that he was injured or sore in any way, just that they ran in to a bit of trouble.. but I saw him also bumping in to a UAE rider and throwing a headbutt with about 500m to go, then fading out of it, so I'm not sure he's entirely telling the truth. He should have been able to kick again if he had the legs. 

Sam Bennett had an odd sprint, DQS tried to take control with 3kms to go, but with it came to the crunch, Asgreen went backwards very quickly, a lot sooner than was expected, he didn't really get involved in the sprint leadout at all. Bennett then found himself drifting backwards and getting boxed out of it a little, like he was low on confidence in himself. He was suddenly dragged back in to contention though with 600m to go by Morkov, but it meant Morkov had to expend all his energy just getting him to 2nd wheel with 300m or so still to go.

Bennett admitted that the mistake he made was to ease back to allow Stuyven to come in in front of him behind Morkov, he thought that Stuyven would go sooner and he could take his wheel.. but he didn't and Bennett found himself boxed in a little behind Stuyven and a retreating Morkov, after knocking back his speed a little and had to try to get it going again, but it was too late, he "couldn't get on top of the gear again" he said. 

DQS surely will not make such a mess of the leadout the next time, and this long, straight uphill drag of a finish should suit them.. but I think they need to sit back and be a bit more patient and let UAE, NTT and Lotto-Soudal do the donkey work up the uphill part until 1km to go, and then surge to the front with 3-4 men in front of Sam. If he gets a clear run at it this time, with Morkov himself only being released with about 300m to go, then he has a massive chance of redemption. Don't be surprised either to see the yellow jersey take a pull at the front, he's not afraid to pitch in where needed.

One heroic, but typical Alexander Kristoff sprint at the end of a wet and exhausting day and suddenly he's the third favourite again for the next stage at just 7/1.. 40/1 to 7/1.. I'll be happy to lay that I think.. Yeah it was a great sprint, but it was more about mistakes from others and misfortune and his super strength at the end of a hard day, but I don't think he'll be repeating that sort of performance.

Cees Bol sprinted well, but faded in sight of the line and was passed by Kristoff and Pedersen, and would have been passed by Bennett and Nizzolo if they'd got their sprint lines right.. He showed I guess why he was selected with a faster sprint and better result in that sort of sprint than Matthews would have managed, but I'm not getting carried away with him just yet. 

Peter Sagan did what I expected of him really, close, but not good enough.. and he got lucky in beating Nizzolo in the match bet. I think it will be similar here, 4th to 9th place for me. Giacomo Nizzolo on the other hand was impressive considering the hard day he had. He too was off the back, standing at the side of the road at one point waiting for a bike, but thanks to the slowdown in the bunch he was able to get back in.

In the sprint he was a little out of position as the sprint really wound up, he was in 8th place with about 150m to go, but fairly flew up the right hand side and was heading for a top 3 place in my opinion until he ran in to a fading Bol and Pedersen who cut across him and he was squeezed out of contention. He suffered again today, but then so did all the sprinters as they sat up a long way from home. He should be close again. 

Elia Viviani rode well today, he stayed in the front group longer than any of the other sprinters, he must have good legs after all. He wasn't far off in 6th place on stage 1, if he can get in a good position tomorrow, and has the legs it looks like he has, he could go close to taking a podium spot at a decent price of 16/1. The pressure builds on Cofidis and Viviani with every day that passes without a win, so the earlier he can get that monkey off his back the better. 

So we will get a bunch sprint I think, DQS will pull all day in order to keep Alap protected and give Bennett a chance of taking their second stage in a row, but will looking after Alap be a detriment to Bennett's chances? I'm not sure.. I think just riding their normal stage for Bennett will look after Alap so they should be fine. Lotto have lost two key men to help, Degenkolb would be one of the later guys to help Ewan, but he still has his key lead-out men in Kluge and Jasper de Buyst.

Caleb Ewan finished dead last today with Jasper de Buyst, he didn't stay with the group that contained De Gendt, Frison, Kluge and Cras that finished just in front of him. The entire Lotto Soudal team finished in the last 16 on the stage, looks like they decided en-masse to take a day off today and save the legs for tomorrow, a wise decision. 

I'm going to stick with Bennett tomorrow I think, the mood in the DQS camp will be high after that win and the team will be desperate to make amends for Stage 1, Sam in particular. He is good at bouncing back from adversity, and I just think also that Lotto and Caleb might just be missing that little extra that's needed to win. Bol, Kristoff, Nizzolo, Coquard and Sagan are sure to be involved too, but I'm going to take a punt on Viviani finishing in the top 3 too, he might just start to get a bit closer. 

UPDATE: 12:45 - Mads Pedersen was interviewed before the stage, and as I said he would, confirmed that they were sprinting for Theuns today. If they are true to their word, then the Theuns Vs Wout Van Aert matchbet with Bet365 looks a great bet.. Theuns will be sprinting, not sure Wout will, he backed out of the sprint on Saturday and will possibly do the same again in order to save legs for tomorrow. 3pts at 8/11 recommended (I just missed the 5/6 he was). 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 7/2 with Betway and others

0.5pts on Elia Viviani to finish in the top 3 at 9/2 with Unibet

Matchbets:

Going to stick with Nizzolo to beat Sagan for one more stage, we were very unlucky Saturday. He's still the outsider of the two in places, at evens, odds on with others. 2pts at evens with Betway

Viviani to beat Coquard and Venturini to beat Turgis - 2pts at evens with Unibet

Add Bennett to beat Ewan to make it a treble at 2/1 - 1pt on that.

Viviani to beat Bol - 1pt at 5/4 with Betway

Kristoff to beat Pedersen - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365, I'm hearing that the sprint duties are going to be shared around at Trek and it could be Eddie Theuns turn tomorrow. Either way, I think Kristoff has the beating of him anyway.