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Published on Saturday, 19 September 2020 21:11

TDF 2019 Stage 21

Mantes La Joile to Paris

Sunday 19th July, 122kms

The traditional curtain call on the Champs-Elysees of Paris, one last chance for the sprinters. Caleb Ewan just held off Dylan Groenewegen last year, to take his third stage win of the race, and his 7th podium in all in the 2019 TDF.. 

It capped a good race for Ewan, the Champs Elysees is always the cherry on top for a sprinter, but to have taken two more sprint stages before that crowned him as the king of the sprints in last year's Tour. Ewan didn't race much after the Tour, it looked like it was 'mission accomplished' for him with his performance there. His last race of the season was on September 7th, at the Brussels Cycling Classic, which of course, he won. 

This is a stage that has been the same for many, many years now, a predictable procession, followed by a fast last 50kms or so, and the bumpy, dangerous circuit around the streets of Paris with the dash up the Champs Elysees. For once though, I'd like to see them do something different like we get in a lot of other Tours, both Grand and short. A final TT every now and then would spice things up. A course with some hills before the finish to test the sprinters or give the puncheurs a chance of attacking. But it's not likely to happen. 

Stage 20 Review

Lost for words. That finish to the Tour today is one that will be talked about for decades to come. You've just witnessed the modern era's equivalent of Fignon and Lemond. Tadej Pogacar simply blew away three of the fastest and strongest guys in the Tour by such a wide margin he could have stopped for a coffee while doing his bike change. It is hard to understand the magnitude of Roglic's collapse and Pogacar's performance. 

He beat Tom Dumoulin by 1'21", that was shocking enough. But to beat Roglic by almost 2 minutes, well that is pas normal as they say. Ok, Roglic looked a complete shambles today, with his lop-sided helmet and chaotic bike change, but that margin is unbelievable. Fair play to Pogacar though, that is an insane way to win the Tour, after losing that much time in the winds, then winning two stages before taking the final stage, the Yellow, KOM and White jersey. Move over Bernal, there's a new young superstar in town. 

What a brilliant ride by Richie Porte too though - to beat Van Aert by 10" and Primoz by 35" was incredible and he deserves that spot on the podium, and was good to land the 11/10 on him to do so. Terrible ride by MAL though, he dropped 3 places, with Landa and Enric Mas moving above him.  

The Route

The usual, a coffee ride to Paris and the laps around the Champs Elysees, with the bumpy, crazy sprint finish.  

Contenders and Favourites

Well it looks like a coin toss between Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan, both are 3/1 with Bet365, with WVA just behind them at 7/2. Mads Pedersen comes next at 13/2, Cees Bol at 8/1 and Peter Sagan at 14/1. 

Bennett has the points jersey wrapped up thankfully, a nice winner on that, but can he wrap up a superb Tour for him with a famous stage win? Well, he's clearly got super, super legs at the moment. What he did on Friday was just unbelievable, he was riding like a Classics rider, jumping and marking Sagan's every move, going with the big attacks in the closing kilometres, when most thought he'd be out the back door, and climbed brilliantly. He then easily outsprinted Sagan and Trentin at the finish after all the effort he put in. 

He's only ever sprinted once on the Champs and that was at the end of a tortuous Tour for him, after injuring his fingers in that crash on the first stage. He still sprinted to 9th that day and and wasn't far off. DQS will boss the final 10kms of this, they won't have much to do all day and will really come in to their own in the last 2kms. 

There will be a superb leadout for him - Declercq will pull for as long as he can until 4 or 5 kms to go. Alaphilippe will take his turn, Cavagna and Jungels will take over with Asgreen and Morkov in behind and it will be hard for other sprint trains to even come up. Asgreen will release Morkov as they hit the final bend on to the finishing straight with 500m to go and Morkov will take him to 250m to go.. They did it last year, with the plan being to lead out Viviani, but as usual, Viviani got lost and they ended up just leading out EBH in to the finishing straight.

Then it's up to Sam. He will need to hug that preferred left-hand barrier and when Morkov peels off left he will force the others to have to go around him, disrupting their sprints. If Sam gets a bike length or two with 150m to go, they might not catch him. 

It could also be that we see DQS try something a bit crazy in the finish to mix things up a bit - we could see Cavagna or Jungels launch off the front in the last 3-4kms, while the team sit up and let him go. That will make others have to work extremely hard to catch them, then when it comes back together, DQS can take over again after having saved their legs for the crucial part.

Also, it wouldn't be an enormous surprise to me to see them pull a trick with Morkov starting to launch his leadout a little bit later than normal, he kicks and Bennett lets the wheel go... Morkov kicks on and has a 15m lead and no one can catch him.. Just rewards for his amazing work for Bennett all Tour!

Caleb Ewan has looked like a dead-man-walking in the last week or so, and I was right to not touch him yesterday, he was never involved and was down the back again. He rode hard today to make the time cut, and actually finished 16" ahead of Bennett. He and the team have really struggled of late, he was in trouble right from the start of so many stages, I feared for him on many occassions even getting to this last stage. 

But he is made of stern sutff and battled his way through. And while Bennett has been totally focused on protecting his Green Jersey lead, and exhausting himself chasing Sagan all over France, Ewan has been saving as much energy as possible for what is his biggest target in this year's Tour. We were on him last year when he won the final stage, his finishing kick to come from a mile back with 200m to go was incredible. 

He has a decent leadout with him, and although several of them have been finishing last with almost him on a number of stages, and they have 4 of the last 5 riders on the GC, they will give it everything one last time to get him the win. 

Wout Van Aert and the Jumbo team will have to pick themselves up off the floor after that shocking result for them today, they were well and truly handed a spanking by Pogacar. They can respond from that in one of two ways - either they are all physically and emotionally shattered after it, and really don't feature, or they dust themselves down and go out to try to finish the Tour on a high by winning with WVA.

They don't really have a leadout to compete with DQS, but Wout doesn't really need it, he has the power and the bike skills to stay near the front on the right wheels and come with his power-packed sprint in the last 200m. 

Mads Pedersen appeals at 13/2, he has been sprinting really well this Tour and this finish will suit him perfectly, he will like the slightly uphill, straight, power-mans sprint and is strong enough to make sure he is perfectly positioned hitting the finishing straight behind the DQS train, maybe with Jasper Stuyven there to help him. 

Cees Bol has disappointed on too many occassions, but that Sunweb team have been phenomenal - I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Soren Kragh fire off the front again with 3kms to go, but he'll have to go some to make it this time. But with him and Pedersen and the rest there to lead him out, he could get involved.. But I just don't think he has the speed to win, or even finish in the top 3. 

Peter Sagan has been getting faster and faster in the sprints in the last week or so, and he's never finished outside the top 10 in sprints here on the final stage. He will be surfing wheels, throwing elbows, and might well try to disrupt the DQS train in the last km, but when push comes to shove, he just doesn't have the speed to beat Bennett or Ewan. He's capable of finishing in the first 6 though. Same with Trentin, he's going to be around the first 15 in the final kilometre, but I don't think he'll be fast enough. 

Alexander Kristoff has a good record in the final stage on the Champs, and although we have not seen anything of him since his fantastic, if shocking stage win on the first stage of this Tour, he is sure to be a factor in the final here again. 1st in 2018, 5th in 2016, he had a mechanical last year that took him out of the sprint, but he is such a powerful sprinter that he will be chugging away and staying on at the finish as others are fading. 

Niccolo Bonifazio was 3rd last year behind Ewan and Groenewegen, but I can't see that sort of result again from him. Bryan Coquard could be involved, but will have to settle for 6th to 10th maybe, Luca Mezgec could be a big surprise in this sprint, he's been sprinting really well and took another 2nd place in that sprint behind SKA on Friday. 

EBH launched early last year, but faded, but he seems to like the finish on the Champs Elysees, Elia Viviani will have to seriously up his game to feature based on what we have seen so far in this Tour (Nothing!) and in fact, he'll probably drop out of contention in the last kilometer again.

And that's about all I can see getting getting involved, there aren't many other guys can match the power and speed of the fast men. As for who is going to win? Well it's very hard to call between the top two guys, hence the 3/1 on both of them.. If it all falls right for Ewan he will come late behind Bennett and mug him on the line.

So it's up to Bennett and DQS to make sure he isn't close enough to do that, and I think that DQS are capable of pulling off a perfect leadout and launching Sam at 60kmph+ in to the last 200m. If he has the legs he has shown in the last few days to chase Sagan, then I think he has the ability and the desire to finish a brilliant Tour with a brilliant win on the Champs Elysees. 

I think Pedersen is capable of taking the 3rd spot from Sagan, with Wout back around 4th or 5th.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 7/2 with Betway

1pt on Mads Pedersen to finish in the top 3 at 2/1 with Unibet

0.2pts win on Mikael Morkov at 200/1 with Betway

Match Bets 

Mezgec to beat Colbrelli and Pedersen to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 9/10

add Sagan to beat Viviani to make it a treble at 2/1 - 2pts