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Published on Friday, 18 September 2020 19:48

TDF 2020 Stage 20

Lure - La Planche des Belles Filles

September 19th, 36.2kms

Now this is going to be interesting.. a 36km TT up to La Planche des Belles Filles - it's going to be brutal and decisive. Flat for 14kms, then a drag at 2.3% for 11kms, a short respite for 6kms, then the 6km climb up to LPDBF at 8.5%.

The Tour was only introduced to the climb to LPDBF for the first time in 2012, when Chris Froome pulled off a shock result to beat Cadel Evans, Bradley Wiggins and Vincenzo Nibali with a storming surge up the last 100m. Vincenzo Nibali got his revenge two years later when he pulled away to win solo from Thibaut Pinot, setting himself up for overall victory. 

In 2017 Fabio Aru attacked solo to win from Dan Martin, with Chris Froome in 3rd stealing some vital seconds off the likes of Contador and Quintana. And last year we saw a dramatic finale when Dylan Tuens and Giulio Ciccone held on from the break to duel it up the final hill as the peloton misjudged it and left too much to do to catch them. Tuens found the strength from somewhere to pull it out of the fire when Ciccone had been trading at short odds on in the closing kilometres, with Xandro Meurisse just holding on for 3rd place from the charging pack. 

Geraint Thomas was impressive to skip away and take 4th, and with it small time advantages over all his rivals, the final 10% section on gravel roads catching a lot of them out. 

But this is a different kind of stage altogether. Coming at the very end of the race, if the time gaps are small it could well decide the entire final top ten. Pacing will be crucial, as the flat part is a challenge, the drag for 11kms is a challenge, and the final steep 6kms is a major challenge. 

Stage 19 Review

Short review as I'm in the middle of moving house but have taken a break to write what I can. Incredible win for SKA again today, what a perfect move from a strong group of riders. Sam Bennett was indeed strong enough and good enough to get over the hills as I hoped, but what I don't think many forecast was how it turned in to a Classics-style finish over the closing 30kms. 

From the intermediate sprint on it was all-out war at the front, with DQS heavily involved, but a lot of Classics men like Van Avermaet, Trentin, Sagan, Stuyven, Mezgec, Bauer and Naesen. It was super-impressive yet again by Bennett to mark Sagan's every move, on terrain that a lot of people thought would not be suited to him, but in marking Sagan everywhere he went he sacrificed his chances of a stage win unfortunately. If he had one more man in the group other than Dries Devenyns he might have had someone to chase an he'd have probably win the sprint. 

They pulled out an impressive gap very quickly, but when SKA jumped with 15.9kms to go, it was Trentin, Sagan and Bennett who were at the front, after just expending a lot of energy up the previous incline on an attack and chase.. None of them wanted to chase and SKA was gone. 

Mezgec took a good 2nd place with Stuyven just behind him, Bennett won the sprint with Sagan and Trentin for 8th place and in doing so has probably wrapped up the Green Jersey. The matchbet won at least, so only a small loss on the Consonni bet. 

The Route

They set out from Lure and head XXX for just over 14kms on pretty flat roads until they pass through Belonchamp. Shortly after the road starts to climb gently and carries on climbing for 11kms in total. The gradient isn't too steep (averages 2.3%), but it does get a little steeper near the top of the Col de Chevestraye. It should be a big-ring climb though. 

A short 3km descent is followed by 3kms on the flat as they run along the valley heading to the start of the final climb. And it's a rude awakening as soon as they hit it - they will be dropping down out of that big ring pretty sharpish as they hit gradients of 9.4% for the first kilometre, with parts hitting 13%. It eases back to just 6.7% for the next kilometre, then 9.45% for the next two kilometres, 

Then there's about 1.6kms at around 8.3% before a short dip down and a final kick up to the line for 400m with parts hitting 20% in places. It's a really nasty climb that has a dead surface and it's hard to get a good rhythm on, so we could well see some hopefuls really struggle with the test. 

Preview

Primoz Roglic is 13/8 fav in early prices, and that is actually bigger than I thought it would be, expected around evens. He has reconned the course, he knows it well he says and he knows that it is going to be full gas from the start. He says that he will wait until the last minute to decide on whether to change his bike or not, but I think he will. He's an excellent time triallist, so will get the max out of his TT bike on the flat and he's an excellent climber, so changing to his climbing bike will probably outweigh the time it takes to make the change. 

His biggest rival is of course Wout Van Aert and you wouldn't put it past the phenomenal Belgian to go out and win yet another stage. We know he's an incredible time triallist, he wiped the floor with Campanaerts in the Belgian TT champs. And we've seen how he's been climbing here, he's just incredible. But surely, you would think, that he has to run out of energy at some point? Maybe not, he looks like the Duracell bunny he has so much energy. 

Tom Dumoulin is almost the forgetten man of the race, after sacrificing his own personal ambitions in the services of his team leader, he is languishing down in 9th place. But he could easily move up 2, possibly even 3 places as he sits just 3'05" behind Enric Mas. But Enric Mas isn't a bad TT'er at all, so I think his big target will be Uran 1'19" ahead of him and Yates who is just 10" ahead of him. He is very capable of a top 3 tomorrow, and I wouldn't be at all surprised either to see him crown his fine race with a win. We could even see Wout soft-pedalling to save his legs for the final sprint in Paris, and to maybe let Tom win if he knows he's got good legs!

Tadej Pogacar recently beat Primoz in the Slovenian TT championships, which was uphill.. So he can clearly TT uphill, although that was only over 16.5kms. It was kind of the opposite to this one though, it was steep (7.5%) for the opening 7kms, then levelled off a little bit to a 2% drag for the last 10kms. On the climb part I think they will be quite close, but Roglic should pull out 30" to a minute I think - in the TT in the Vuelta last year he beat him by 1'29" over 36kms. 

Maybe Rogla should forget about thinking he can pull back that time on the GC and instead just take it easy to the climb and then blast it up it, taking a podium spot and the KOM jersey instead. It's unlikely though, I think he'll still give it his all, you never know, maybe Roglic has a shocker or a mechanical.. 

Richie Porte is 14/1 and although I think it's unlikely he'll make the podium on the stage, he'll be going full gas to try to overhaul the 1'39" deficit he has to Lopez for the podium overall. I think he will go close to taking that much time off him, I think he is capable of taking 30" to a minute off him on the flat 30kms, and he might just beat him on the climb too. It might be too big of an ask though to pull that much time off such an excellent climber though, who is clearly in great form too. 

Michel Kwiatkowski is 16/1 and he seems to be getting better and better with every day that goes by. A good TT'er and a great climber, he is sure to give it a go, but I don't think he'll be good enough to break the top 6. Thomas de Gendt at 33/1 is about the only other rider I'd have an interest in backing, but even that's a stretch, it's unlikely he'll beat the top 3 guys here. He might be needed to save his legs to deliver Ewan's stage win on Sunday. 

Soren Kragh Andersen might go well at 50/1, but he went hard today and might be asked to save the legs to help Cees Bol on Sunday, and Nelson Oliveira at 100/1 might finish in the top 10, but probably not the top 5. 

It all looks set though for Roglic to crown a magnificent Tour for him with a win on an iconic mountain, in the yellow jersey and show that he can do it on his own, without his incredible team beside him. But actually, he might have his incredible team beside him, as we could see a Jumbo 1-2-3, with Van Aert and Dumoulin also going to be battling for the win. Pogacar and Porte could be the only two I think who could upset the apple-cart. Unibet are offering a bet on Jumbo Visma winning the TT, from any rider, it may be 11/50 but I think that's a certainty, if Roglic doesn't win it you also have WVA and Dumoulin running for you. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Primoz Roglic at 15/8 on Betfair or 13/8 with various if you don't Betfair

2pts on Dumoulin to finish in the top 3 at 4/5 on Betfair. 

5pts on JV to win at 11/50 with Unibet

Match Bets: 

Porte to beat Landa, Caruso to beat Valverde, Yates to beat Landa - 3pts at 1.3/1 with Bet365

Add Roglic to beat Pogacar for a four-fold at 7/4 - 2pts on that. 

Oliveira to beat Schachmann - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365 (Oliveira is 4/5 in terms of TT victories vs Schachmann)