Details

Published on Friday, 07 May 2021 17:44

TDF 2020 Stage 2

Nice - Nice 

August 30th, 186kms

So, as if stage one's route wasn't a hard enough start to the Tour, stage 2 will really show up anyone who isn't at 100% starting the race. Two Cat 1s and the Col d'Eze will certainly make this one of the most interesting 2nd Tour stages in a long time. 

It's similar to the first stage in that they head in to a loop of the hills north of Nice, but they've found some much harder hills on this stage that will really test the legs and we could see carnage before some have even got warmed up. There are some climbs here that will be very familiar to a lot of riders, especially those who live around the Nice/Monaco area, of which there are many - Nico Roche, Richie Porte and Philippe Gilbert to name a few. 

Stage 1 Review

So we got out early break, with two french teams out of 3, but they were never really allowed to get very far away, with the peloton keeping the pace high right from the very start, with DQS, JV and Lotto-Soudal sharing the work at the front. Something bizarre I noticed shortly after the race started was that Julian Alaphilippe's price for the overall tumbled from the 50s I recommended backing him at down to as low as 23, where I managed to lay back half my stake with less than half the first stage of the race run.. 

There was a bit of a scare for Sam Bennett and a number of others with about 115kms to go when there was a crash in the peloton, which also caught out Miguel Angel Lopez, Ben Hermans and Domenico Pozzovivo. Luckily it was far enough out that they were all able to get back on without too much of a problem.

There was a second crash about 10kms later that saw Latour, Cosnefroy, Sivakov and Fraile involved, with Sivakov suffering a rear-wheel puncture that took forever to be changed, but actually, things were a lot worse from Sivakov's point of view as he was off the back and not looking very well whatsoever. There were crashes everywhere in the wet, Quintana, Impey, Alaphilippe all went down, then we got sight of Bernal off the back, Dumoulin off the back, it was utter carnage out there. But with about 80kms to go it calmed down a bit again, and the peloton regrouped.

But more crashes came - Sivakov crashed again, Ewan, Kuss, Gesink, Landa, Porte, Luis Leon Sanchez, Gesink, Geschke and more.. it was utter chaos all day long. Caleb Ewan crashed and was nearly 7 minutes behind at one stage, where his price for the stage went out to 1000 on Betfair as it looked all over for him.. I took a few quid at 65s, just in case, as the pace was dropping at the front and they started to calm down.. sure enough, Ewan got back on, and I was able to lay back out twice my stake at 5, so had a nice free profit on Ewan for the win.

Astana tried to stretch it out on one descent, but Lopez got it all wrong on one bend and smacked straight in to a hedge/post, and also received a lashing from the rest of the peloton after. 

In the end, Ewan was nowhere to be seen, and we saw a crazy, chaotic finish. There was one more crash metres inside the 3km to go banner, where they had announced times were being taken from for everyone, and its biggest victim was Thibaut Pinot. He looked a bit shaken, with skin missing from his ass, but was also very angry.. 

The sprint saw Alexander Kristoff spring a 40/1 surprise, outsprinting Mads Pedersen and Cees Bol, with Bennett, Sagan, Viviani, Nizzolo and Coquard the next home. Bennett had a very strange last kilometre, Morkov disappeared out of sight very quick a long way out, Bennett was miles back with 1km to go, but was brought to the front with about 500m to go, but seemed to have a gear issue or something he wasn't quite going as smoothly as he should have been. He looked like he might have had the sprint though when he kicked on the left, but faded badly in the end, maybe the chasing to get back on twice drained his legs. 

In the end, as we maybe should have predicted given the terrible weather and tough day, it was the super-strong classics men Kristoff and Pedersen who came through to take the first two places. We were desperately unlucky with Nizzolo to beat Sagan, he had him for sure until he ran in to the back of Bol and Pedersen and had to stop about 20m from the line, so slipped back behind Sagan. That was a decent winner that got away. 

A bit of a crash-fest for us too with the bets today then, Bonifazion couldn't even stay with the bunch half way through the stage, and even though Griepel finished nearly 6 mins down, he still beat Bonifazio. Hopefully we can get back on track tomorrow. 

The Route

 A slow, steady drag for 45kms takes them out of Nice to start the clock-wise loop in to the hills. At La Bolingette the serious climbing starts though, as they start on the Col de la Colmiane. It's a long one, 16.3kms at 6.3%, but it's pretty steady all the way up. Depending on whether a team decides to test their opponents this early in the Tour, we might see a frantic pace, and a lot of guys going out the back door VERY early on.. They crest the summit after 63kms and descend for 20 minutes or so as they head back south-east and to the foot of the Col de Turini. 

The Turini is steeper though (7.4% for 14.9kms), so if you were struggling on the first climb, you could be in big trouble on this one (right). And it's a lot more irregular too, with three 1km sections hitting over 10%, and the last 5kms averaging closer to 8%. 

They then descend for 42kms back down to Nice where they don't go through the finish line yet, but skip along the north edges of the city en-route to the Col d'Eze. This climb is very familiar to anyone who follows Paris Nice, Richie Porte won a time trial on it in 2015, Bradley Wiggins won a TT on it in 2012, Sean Kelly won the TT five times during his dominance of Paris-Nice in the eighties. 

It's not the steepest of climbs, at just 6.1% for 7.8kms, but after 153kms, and coming just 33kms from the finish, the pace is going to be furious, and we could see a lot of casualties. 5kms up the climb they actually pass over the Col des Quatre Chemins, but keep on going and then descend back down to Nice and pass through the finish line and back towards the Col d'Eze.

But the next time they actually only go up the 5kms to the Col des Quatre Chemins, which is 5kms at 6% before turning and heading back towards Nice. They descend until 2kms to go when they hit the seafront and from there it is more or less flat, bar that little kick up with 1km to go that we are familiar with from the finishes of stages in to Nice of Paris Nice. 

There are a number of tricky bends to negotiate as they come back in to town, the hairpin with 3.5kms and 3kms to go, the sharp left, right, left as they pass through 2kms to go before they hit some speed bumps. There's a more gentle turn just outside the Flamme Rouge and a bit of a jink as they come on to the Promenade Des Anglais, but then it's a straight run to the line for the last 900m. 

Contenders and Favourites

So we've had our first glimpse at the state of the peloton, not that it has told us much 

The bookies came out with their prices pretty early for this and had made Julian Alaphilippe the favourite at 7/2 a few days ago. Of course on a route like this, with the two late punchy climbs, Alaphilippe was always going to be fancied, but what a crazy day he had today, and it would have taken a lot out of him physically as well as mentally. But when the latest prices came out tonight, he was still 7/2, so the bookies obviously think differently.. 

It's been mentioned a lot that he fancies this stage and the possibilty of taking the yellow jersey, and the stage does look very suited to him. The pace is going to be hard on the big climbs, but he should be ok (unless he did get injured today) and a lot of the sprinter-types will be long gone by the time they get to the last 40kms. The Col d'Eze will be raced hard too, I'm not sure he'll attack that early, he might wait until the second time up when they just go to the Quatre Chemins - from the top there's only 9kms to go. Plus, there's bonus seconds at the top of it up for grabs which could prove useful. 

I'm not keen on him at that price though, he's way too short.. as I said in some of my other previews, he didn't manage to get away from Démare recently with his late attack and he had a stressful day today. There will be a big battle on that climb, and he will need to be 100% to get away solo, and I don't think he is. That means that others should be able to latch on to his attack and a small group could go clear instead. 

Wout Van Aert comes next in the betting at 8/1, and he of course is going to be involved, like he went after Alap in MSR. He was supposed to go for it today, but crashed himself earlier on, and with all the chaos and crashes he didn't get invovled in the finish, I think the call would have been made from the car to stay out of trouble, with Bennett, Kuss, Dumoulin and Gesink all having hit the ground during the stage. 

Having crashed today, will he be ok for tomorrow? Who knows.. But if he is, then there is a chance to go for it on the final climb, take the bonus seconds on the climb, and potentially the bonus seconds at the finish too to take yellow. but will they want yellow? The team suffered a lot today and will not want to be having to control the race in the coming days, they'll be happy to let that to others. So maybe he'll be asked to reign it in a bit and look after himself and his team-mates for the greater good. 

Sergio Higuita third favourite at 14/1 was not something I expected to see, but there he is.. I'm not really sure why, maybe they're expecting him to get in the break of the day and then attack away on the Col d'Eze or Quatre Chemins at the end. He's had a few good results this year and rode well in Paris-Nice, but I can't  have him at that price. 

Primoz Roglic is also 14/1 and I think that's a poor price too, as I can't see him getting away on his own, and a lot of guys are likely to beat him in a reduced bunch sprint finish. And again, will they want to be controlling the race this early?

Thomas de Gendt is another at 14/1, and he finished 11 minutes down today, and he said tonight in a tweet that he hadn't crashed, it was because 'I had bad legs and I didn't want to risk it trying to get back on' as people were questioning whether he deliberately lost time to get the freedom to go in the break tomorrow. It's possible he's bluffing/lying, but I think we wouldn't reply like that and say that if he was secretly planning on going on the attack.. and again, he's not one for winning a sprint from a small group. 

Alejandro Valverde, 25/1? No thanks either, although if he gets in a small group with just the guys above, then he'd have a chance in the sprint. 

Thibaut Pinot 28/1, after crashing today, with a downhill run to the line and a flat sprint? Are they on drugs?

Davide Formolo 28/1.. will he be let go? Will they want him using energy or taking the race lead? I'm not sure.. They might send David De La Cruz or someone else in the break, if he's not too banged up after his crash today, but I don't think it'll be Formolo. But if it comes to a showdown up the Col d'Eze or the QC, then he could well be in the mix.. I just can't see him soloing to victory or winning reduced sprint either though. 

Philippe Gilbert at 28/1.. Now that's a bit more like it. Gilbert will find it tough on the Cat 1 climbs, but might just be able to cope better than a lot of other guys, especially as they come so far out, and with so many of the GC teams nursing bumps and bruises after today, Jumbo and Ineos are hardly likely to be ripping it up there. In the Tour de Wallonie he attacked powerfully in the last 300m of the final stage, only to be just over-hauled and outsprinted by Démare. 

He is likely to be able to follow the attacks late on the QC and it looks like he escaped pretty unscathed today. Also, he was not asked to go back to help Ewan, he was kept out of trouble, it was Degenkolb who was sent back to Ewan. Unfortunately for him he put so much effort in to bringing Ewan back, while injured himself, that he finished OTL and was eliminated. What a great way for Gilbert to lift his and the team's spirits by winning and taking yellow tomorrow. Gilbert also lives in Monaco, so will know these roads like the back of his hands, he will be going all out for this I think.

(UPDATE 23:10 - Gilbert was still in hospital at 22:45 tonight getting checked over after being taken away in an ambulance after the stage apparently, I only found that out tonight when there was a report on injuries suffered. If yo haven't backed him yet, maybe hold off.. if you have, maybe try to cash out your bet if you can.. sorry, had no idea) 

Can't have S K Anderson at 28s or Pogacar at 33s, nor Sagan at 33s, although he might be just on the border of hanging in there, and that would be an amazing price if he's in a small group charging towards the finish. Max Schachmann at 33/1 would also interest me a little, we saw how well he rode in Lombarida on climbs like this, but he also dislocated his shoulder in that crash with the car, so I'm not sure I want to be taking the risk on him until we see how he's going. 

Two more guys who interest me as well though are Matteo Trentin and Daryl Impey at 40/1. Trentin sprinted for the intermediate sprint today, taking 2nd in the sprint behind Sagan, and also was involved in the finish, taking 12th place. He should be ok in the hills and might be able to just hang in there and follow the late attacks, he seems to have good legs. If he comes to the finish with the leaders he'll have a big chance. 

Daryl Impey seemed to be going well today too, I'm sure I saw him appear near the front in the closing kilometres, but he finished way down in 117th, he might have got caught out by the late crash or something. He's very similar to Trentin and Gilbert in that sense and if it's a real tough man's stage again, he could be there at the finish. He's 50/1 with Skybet I've seen, that's worth a bet. 

Can Giacomo Nizzolo hang in there tomorrow? It's possible, but he had a hard day today.. If he does though, the 66/1 will be an incredible price. Sonny Colbrelli looks huge at 200/1, have to have some of that I think too, he might get in the break, or could hang on to win from a sprint. 

From the break, the likes of Alessandro De Marchi, Pelle Bilbao, David de La Cruz, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves (who might be going after KOM points) could hang on all the way to the finish, depending on who is in the break and whether the conditions 'neutralise' the chase again. Lilian Calmejane, Matej Mohoric, Simon Geschke, Pierre Rolland and Jan Polanc are others who would be interested. 

It's a hard one to call tomorrow based on what we saw today, with the chaos and crashes - lots and lots of riders crashed, lots and lots will be stiff and sore, but also a lot of team's management will be urging caution if the conditions are similar. The forecast is much better though, although rain is still expected in the morning, it does look like the sun will come out in the afternoon, so hopefully it will be a bit safer. 

Alaphilippe and Wout wil be in the mix of course, as will the GC men, and it is hard to predict where exactly the main move will come - could some teams try to test Jumbo and Ineos after the carnage of today and push on on the Turini? Will some with climbing sprinters like Impey, Trentin, Gilbert and Sagan try to push on, but not too much, in order to keep their men in while getting rid of enough to give them the chance of victory?

Or will a reduced peloton of some 100 guys come to the Col d'Eze and slowly get whittled down as the pace rises? Will we see late attacks that stick or be neutralized in the last 10kms on the way back to Nice? That's the scenario I am leaning towards, and am hoping my picks will make it to give us a few chances at victory. It's a wide open race, as can be seen from the big prices on offer for anyone after Alaphilippe.   

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Philippe Gilbert at 28/1 (33/1 is now gone) (avoid if you haven't backed him yet because of the update above)

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 40/1

0.5pts e/w on Daryl Impey at 50/1

0.2pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at 200/1

Matchbets:

Valverde over Hiquita (5/4) and Alaphilippe over Van Aert - 1pt on the double at 2.15/1

That's it, the others are just impossible to call..