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Published on Thursday, 17 September 2020 18:48

TDF 2020 Stage 19

Bourg-en-Bresse - Champagnole

Friday 17th July, 160kms

A flat sprinters stage two days before the end of the Tour de France? What were they thinking.. Well I guess they were thinking about giving the GC contenders a rest day before the final TT tomorrow, a chance to recharge the batteries. 

Or maybe they thought/hoped that the green jersey battle would go down to the wire like this and wanted to give Sagan one last chance to rescue it?! It's a lumpy day again as they climb gently all day heading towards the highest point on the hills above Champagnole, before descending back down to the town for the sprint finish. 

The sprinters will be under pressure from Bora from the start probably, but maybe they will let the likes of DQS control things until the 76km mark and then try to blow it up on the short 4.3km Cat 4 climb (avg 4.7%) to get rid of Bennett. It continues to climb from the top of that though, gently at first, before kicking up for the last 5kms at an average of 3.7%. From the sprint there's a few little lumps and bumps but it's mostly downhill to the finish. 

Stage 18 Review

A huge break went up the road, which included Bilbao, Hirschi, Carapaz, Kwiatkowski, Herrada, Peters, Sagan and Bennett. The gap was kept very tight as B&B had missed the move and they started chasing, then TDE, who also missed the move, started helping and the gap came down to just over a minute. But eventually they gave up and the lead went out.

On the Roselend the break slimmed down a bit, and over the top Carapaz and Hirschi fought it out for the KOM points and pushed on once over the top, and before we knew it there were only five up front, with Hirschi, Bilbao, Edet and the two Ineos boys. Jan Hirt tried to bridge across twice, but it was too late Jan, maybe if you hadn't started the stage down at the back of the bunch looking like you didn't care you might have actually made the break in the first place. 

The gap grew to over 5 minutes with 90kms to go, and Carapaz and Hirschi battled for every KOM point along the way. On one descent, Carapaz pulled out a gap, Kwiat let him go and taunted Hirschi to go and close the gap, and in doing so Hirschi over-did it on a bend and slid off and out of contention, leaving just Bilbao and Carapaz and Kwiat up front. Edet caught back up on the descent but got dropped as soon as they started climbing again, and with 50kms to go the three out front had almost 9 minutes on the peloton. 

But unbelievably, Bilbao, despite doing almost none of the work, fell away from the front two on the Glieres, so incredibly disappointing, but so our luck this Tour. I really thought we had a chance of a good winner there, or the e/w place at the very least with only three of them up the road. He fell back to help Landa, a pointless exercise and more brain-dead team management by the Bahrain Merida team. 

Kwiato was gifted the stage win by Carapaz, who was happy to just take the polka dots jersey it seemed, he looked genuinely delighted for Kwiato. Wout Van Aert won the sprint for 3rd by so much he was given a 2" advantage on the others, and Roglic finished ahead of Pogacar and Porte. Carapaz is now the 1/2 favourite to win the KOM competition, a price that looks a little confusing at first when you see there are 10pts available on the TT stage, but the KOM points are only awarded for the fastest up the 6km part of the PDBF rather than the fastest on the stage itself.

I think the rationale is that Carapaz will cruise along the first part to the bottom of the climb and then go full gas to try to be one of the fastest on the climb. Pog and Rog will be going full gas from the start of the stage, so they might post the best times on the stage, but they might not be the fastest on the climb part. But Carapaz might not still make the top 4 or 5 on the climb, Pog or Rog might, meaning they could end up in the jersey. It's too hard to call, but 1/2 is too short, the 9/2 on Roglic looks interesting, but it would need him finishing either 1st, 2nd or 3rd, but with Pog finishing more than 3 places behind him.  

The Route

Not a very long stage that heads north for 82kms before turning right at the Cat 4 climbs for 40kms and then winding around in a clock-wise circle nearly back on themselves to the finish in Champagnole. 

It's relatively flat for 78kms, then they hit the Cat 4 Cote de Chateau-Chalon, a short little hill after what they've been over this week, just 4.3kms at 4.7%, but it can be enough to cause a lot of pain if ridden hard enough by the likes of Bora. It carries on quite steep for another 2.5kms before easing back, but it continues to climb for the next 40kms as they head towards the intermediate sprint. 

It's a tough intermediate sprint this one, after climbing for most of the last 40kms, they then hit the kick up for the last 5kms at 3.7% to the sprint, it's going to be interesting to see how many guys have gone in the break to take the first points, but if Bennett rides like he did today I think he should be ok here. 

The climbing carries on a little bit further until Biefes des Maisons after 132kms where they start to turn right and loop around in a clockwise circle back to the finish, descending most of the way, which will make it a very fast finish. 

It does flatten out with 3.5kms to go, has a little kick up from 1.5kms to 1km to go, but nothing to worry then, then a slightly uphill run to the line. There's a lot of long straight roads on the run-in, but it gets quite tricky between 2kms and 1km to go, with a number of bends, including a sharp right-hander with just 11m to go. Then it's a straight run to the line more or less. Being at the front coming through that last bend will be crucial, as it will really stretch out hitting the flamme rouge and it could be hard to come back to the front if you get caught 30 or 40 riders back. 

Contenders and Favourites

So the question is, will Sam make it to the finish tomorrow in order to compete for the sprint? Will he secure green ahead of the final sprint in Paris? It's yet another challenging and stressful day for Bennett for sure. 

I think Bennett will be ok tomorrow though, he has been riding better and better this week, and he showed today that he has the legs to deal with the little climbs and whatever Sagan tries to throw at him (including trying to chop up Jungels in the sprint today)

He took another 5pt advantage today in the intermediate sprint, easily outsprinting his rivals again, and will be going all in again to just get to the finish of this one. I think he might even let Sagan take the intermediate and save his legs for the finish, that wouldn't surprise me at all.. It might even be that he could struggle a little bit at the top of the hill and loses some ground, but he'll have the whole team with him to pull him back and they should be fine.

One of the other reasons I think Sam has a big chance of the win tomorrow is that I'm not sure that Ewan will be there at the finish. He has been suffering like a dog all week and went out the back door again today at the bottom of the Roselend, with 144kms still to go in the stage. He came home in the grupetto with Bennett today, but at one point he was down over 7 minutes on his own and needed Kluge and a few others just to keep him in the race. If he starts to struggle tomorrow, it might well be that we see him just down tools and save the legs for Paris, he really wants to win that stage again, and he knows he probably will. 

Second favourite for the stage is Wout Van Aert at just 11/2 with Bet365 (Betway have him the joint 9/2 fav with Sam) and of course, we know what the rationale there is - JV rip the race apart again like they have done all Tour and get rid of all the sprinters, and then Van Aert cruises to a sprint win amongst those that are left.

And yes, even if the sprinters are there at the finish, he has a big chance of a win too. He shows no signs of letting up, he rode like a monster again today, dropping Uran, Yates and almost everyone bar the top GC guys on the Grieles, before recovering enough to rejoin the front again and sprinting to a win, a win by such a margin he was given a 2" gap. 

Peter Sagan will do all he can to unship Bennett along the way, and if he does, I'm not even sure he'll win the sprint. Matteo Trentin seems to have the beating of him at the moment, and Trentin will certainly be there at the finish.

Cees Bol has been suffering a lot and hasn't lived up to the hype at all during this Tour, I can't have him at 18/1. Mads Pedersen and Jasper Stuyven should be there at the finish, especially if it's been a hard day, Mads is just 12/1 though, whereas Stuyven is 28/1.. I think though if Bennett, Sagan, Trentin and Wout are there neither of them will make the top 3. 

Luca Mezgec did very well in Lyon, winning the sprint for 2nd place, he will have no problems with the hills, and in fact we might see M-S trying to make the day as hard as possible to get rid of as many rivals as possible. He's very hit and miss in sprints though, I couldn't trust him at just 18/1. 

Simone Consonni did really well on the stage to Lyon won by SKA, he stayed there with the puncheurs over the final hills and sprinted to a great 3rd place on the day. He should be able to stay in there again today and could be a dark horse here at a big price of 50/1 with Betway. 

Elia Viviani might not make the finish either, but Kristoff, Naesen, Colbrelli, Van Avermaet, EBH and Arndt mightn't be far away. Bryan Coquard looks a massive price at 80/1, but he has been really suffering this week, barely making the time cut on the Loze stage, his team-mate Debuscherre missed the time limit getting him over the line on time. 

So it looks like it will be up to Bora and CCC to ride hard tomorrow to try to control the break, and also try to unship the sprinters. M-S and Trek might help them, DQS will probably be happy to sit back and let them get on with it, as they have a comfortable lead in the competition and don't need to chase. They will need to rally around Sam and get him over the hills, but I think he should be ok, and then once they are over the hills they can take over in the closing 30kms as they head towards the finish. 

It's a tricky finish, but I think DQS are up to the task and will lead Sam through the final bend with 1100m to go with Alaphilippe in front of Asgreen and Morkov. Asgreen will drop with 600m to go, Morkov with 250m to go and they'll launch Sam to the win. Wout is capable of a top 3, Sagan and Trentin should be close, but a small bet on Consonni at 50/1 e/w might just land a podium spot.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 5/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Simone Consonni at 50/1 with Betway

Match Bets 

Mezgec to beat Colbrelli and Pedersen to beat Kristoff - 2pts at evens with Bet365