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Published on Wednesday, 16 September 2020 19:48

TDF 2020 Stage 18

Méribel to La Roche-sur-Foron

Thursday 16th July, 168kms

A big day of climbing lies ahead of the riders today, in fact there's over 4,000m of ascension on the roads between Méribel and La Roche-sur-Foron. But it's not a summit finish on the last key road stage, but a downhill run for the last 9kms or so.

But what a stage this could be - it could be carnage and chaos.. uphill from the start for 30kms or so, then they hit climb after climb, six in total in the stage. This is a big day for the KOM hopefuls, and with bonus seconds available on the Col de Glieres, the last big climb of the race, it will be interesting to see how the GC teams play it. Jumbo will probably want to let the break go and take all the bonus seconds, UAE will probably want to try to reel them in to give Pogacar a shot at winning them. 

But it looks like a stage for the breakaway, and it would well be won by a solo rider who gets away on the Glieres, or even over that little uncategorised kicker with 10kms to go.. It's all downhill to the line from there, bar a little kick up to the line for the last 500m.  

Stage 17 Review

A disappointingly small break in the end, considering how it was the last chance saloon for a lot of riders. Peters tried, Herrada tried, Chaves tried, Soler tried.. But the only riders that got away were Dan Martin, Carapaz, Izaguirre, Kamna and Alaphilippe. They were never really given too much of a lead then, but if you backed Dan at 100 or so, you could have laid out of him around 10/1 in running.

Richard Carapaz traded to about 2/1 in play when their lead went up to over 5 minutes, but as soon as they started the Madeleine Bahrain, of all teams, started riding at the front, with Sonny Colbrelli doing a Wout Van Aert for about 4kms. Half way up the Madeleine though, the gap dropped to under 3 minutes and the GC men's prices started to tumble. I took some of Pogacar at 4.6 on Betfair and MAL at 16, by the top of the Madeleine, with the gap at just 1'30", their prices were just 6/4 and 13/2, with Roglic at 5/2 and Landa at 7/1. 

Dan Martin lost contact as Alaphilippe pushed on on the descent and was caught by the peloton with 35kms to go, as Bahrian continued to push it at the front. Carapaz was the last man standing, and did an incredible job to actually pull out the gap again in the last 5kms to over 40", when his price tumbled again from 100 to shorter than 2/1 on betfair. Finally, after all the waiting, Mikel Landa went.... well, he went backwards, quickly. 

Kuss, Rog, Pog, Porte and Lopez were left at the front, Lopez attacked, he was pulled back, Kuss rolled off the front and Lopez jumped across to him. Behind, Pog and Rog looked at each other and Lopez pulled away from Kuss, who seemed to sit up and wait for Rog, he said after that Lopez was just too strong for him. I knew we should have backed him at 12/1, the one day I don't he bloody well goes and wins.. 

Pogacar started to struggle a little and just as he did some idiot running alongside him caused him to ease off a little and try to push them out of the way, and he was never able to get back to Roglic. He almost caught him with about 500m to go, but Roglic kicked again and pulled away to beat him by 15" and extends his lead to 57" overall. It looks all over now, it would take a major surprise for him to lose the race with the lead he has, and the fact he's one of the best TT'ers here for that finish.  

The Route

Hardly a metre of flat road to be seen for 168kms. They start climbing straight out of the neutralized zone from Moutiers, but they are big, wide, open roads, hard to get away on and you'll need a lot of power to get away. There is a steeper part after about 7kms as they head past the viaducts, and the sprint comes after just 14kms.

The road continues to climb gently at around 3-4% until 27kms gone when they start on the first Cat 1 of the stage, the Cornet de Roselend.. And it's no easy introduction to the day, 18.6kms long at an average of 6.1%, with a very uneven profile all the way up. That should see the break going early and we could see fireworks behind too as the GC teams look to strip out any weak hands and for an elite group that will tackle the rest of the stage. 

Two more tough climbs come in quick succession, but they might not see any real action as the GC men will probably be saving themselves for the killer that is the Montee du Plateau des Glieres which tops out with just 32kms to go, 25kms of which are downhill. The Glieres is brutal - 6kms at 11.2%, with 3kms of it at 12% or just above. The battle at the top of the Glieres could be fought out amongst the GC men as there are 8 bonus seconds on offer at the top to the winner. 

One more small uncategorised little col to get over on the way to the finish (6.5kms at 4%), then it's downhill all the way to the finish for the last 10kms. We could see fireworks all over this stage - do we see the likes of Pogacar or Lopez going from a long way out? Will Jumbo hold off on pushing and let the break take all the bonus seconds from Pogacar? It's going to be a great one to watch. 

Preview

The break probably wins tomorrow I think. It'll be a hard stage to control, and who's going to want to control it? I think the break might have made it today, had BM not done their idiotic pulling for 70kms, JV looked happy to let the break go and cruise the stage. 

There is no reason again tomorrow for them to chase the break, they don't need to do anything now other than to protect Roglic and get him over the line on Sunday. Letting the break go and take the bonus seconds on the Glieres and the finish line would suit them fine. UAE don't have the team to pull and the stuffing might just have been knocked out of Pog today. 

Astana probably won't chase, although the prospect of the bonus seconds on the Glieres and the finish line might be attractive to Lopez, what with him now looking to secure 3rd spot on the podium ahead of Porte. I think he will need more time on Porte going in to the final TT, I don't think he'll sit back and relax just yet. But he could just try a late attack again from the GC group and try to steal 5-10" on that uphill finish. 

There are a lot of very tired riders in the peloton now though, and we have seen how it is proving very hard to get away in breaks, guys just don't seem to have the strength to get away any more. We are seeing break attempts that barely get 5-10" and are pulled back again and lately we are seeing a lot of guys give up pretty quickly once they've shot their one and only bullet it seems. So we're back looking at some of the form riders again, the same guys who look to be the strongest in this week 3.

Prices from Betway were up early again and they made Michal Kwiatkowski the 6/1 favourite at first. No thanks. Yeah, it might be his turn tomorrow, and yeah he might like the course, but I don't think that's any sort of value whatsoever. He's not a prolific winner any more and he's not really done anything in this Tour to suggest to me that he'll go off and take this. And just as I finish writing this paragraph he's now 12/1 and Pog and Rog were cut from 14/1 to 9/1 joint favourites.

Then just as quick, Marc Hirschi goes 8/1 favourite, then 7/1. Yes, he has a big chance on a stage like this, but he will have to get over the Glieres, maybe with some decent climbers, and that might be a big ask for a young guy at the end of his first 3-week Tour. No thanks at that price too. We can re-assess depending on whether he does get in the break and whether he's still in contention over the Glieres. 

The guy who I like today though is Dani Martinez, he did actually try to get in the break at one point today, he bridged to the first move that ultimately failed, but missed the key move. Now that Uran is not really fighting for anything any more, with podium out of the question, I think there will be no doubt he'll be let go try tomorrow. And he's the kind of guy I want on our side going up those 10-11% gradients of the Glieres, maybe attacking away and going solo from there. At 12/1, he's alright, not great, but I want to be on him. 

I'm not trying Chaves any more, he tried again today, but he just isn't strong enough at the moment to even make a break, if he can't push hard enough to go with the likes of Carapaz, Martin and Izagirre, he's not going to get over the Glieres with good climbers. 

But do we try Dan Martin again tomorrow? He looked good today and has the experience and fortitude to keep going three weeks in. He only lost contact today because he had trouble staying with Alaphilippe descending, maybe the injury hurts him more when he's descending rather than climbing.. and that's a worry seeing as the finish is at the bottom of a descent. I'm tempted again at 50/1 though, once he lost contact he didn't waste too much more energy as he was descending and then sat up and waited for the peloton. If I can get 100/1 or so on him on Betfair I'll have a small bet. 

Richard Carapaz is very short again at 12/1, but he gave his backers a real run for their money today, trading down to 2/1 and less on two occassions. He had to go deep today though and I'm not sure he'll have the energy tomorrow to go again. 

Pelle Bilbao is an interesting one, he clearly is riding really well and he could well be given the green light again to go in breaks, now that Operation Landa failed. Bahrain Merida should let them have a go tomorrow to get in the break, they need to try to rescue something out of the race. Damiano Caruso is also riding really well, but I don't think he'll be welcome in a break as he is just outside the top 10.

Bilbao looks a more likely candidate - he finished 2nd behind Fuglsang in a similar profile stage in the Ruta Del Sol this year and as Spanish TT champion, if he can get over the Glieres, or attack on the run in to the finish, the others might not be able to catch him. He also won two similar stages in the Vuelta last year, the second one coming on stage 20, showing how good he is towards the end of a GT. 

Max Schachmann is another I was thinking about as he's in such good form, and he held back today as Kamna went up the road. I'm worried about the Glieres though if he gets attached by better climbers like Martinez or Bilbao. But I want to have something on him, I'll take a half a point now and will add to my stake if it's looking good for him in-play.

Alaphilippe looks like he really wants to get something out of the race, but he went deep today too and hasn't looked like he has the legs to finish off a stage like he used to. Thomas de Gendt tried really hard to get away today, he led solo by about 20" at one point. He will surely try again tomorrow - but I think he's a back to lay bet though on Betfair, if you can back him at 70 or so on Betfair, lay out again at 15 or so when he gets in the break.. I worry about him getting over the Glieres. 

Lutsenko looked cooked early today, Sivakov could try, but not sure he has the legs, Jesus Herrada tried today but couldn't bridge on his own, this start might suit him better, at 66/1 he's worth a shot again maybe. Nans Peters tried today, as did Vuillermoz, they were up at the front and in the first attacks, but didn't make it, I'm not sure they have the strength any more to get in breaks either. 

Movistar have Mas and Valverde in the top 10 and the Team Classification sown up, I'm sure they'll try to send guys up the road again tomorrow in search of a stage win. Marc Soler still looks like the most likely to me to do something for them, he cruised home today 25 mins down after looking after the leaders for most of the stage. 28/1 is a bit tight now, if I get 40/1 or so on betfair I might try him. 

Jan Hirt is one other guy I've been watching and have been tempted to back on a few occassions but didn't. He's been riding ok on the climbs, but has also tried to get in breaks a few days, unsuccessfully. He finished 2nd to Ciccone on a stage like this in the Giro last year, and at 125/1 I'm going to add him to the pot. 

And of course the GC men.. Pog and Rog are near the top of the betting of course, with Pogacar the shorter of the two of them at 10/1, with Rog at 12/1. I guess the finish suits Pog a lot better than today's or the Puy Mary, and maybe, just maybe, Roglic will let his mate have the stage win, as long as he takes 2nd behind him and limits the time loss to just a few seconds.. But I'm not going to back either of them until I see how the race is turning out in-play, it might be that even if it does come down to a GC finish that they look at each other again like today and someone nicks off to take the stage win. 

So many guys again that can possibly get in the break, but we've seen lots of disappointing breaks so far. Hopefully we'll have a bit more luck with getting a few of these guys in it.  

Recommendations:

1pt win on Dani Martinez at 12/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Pelle Bilbao at 16/1 with Betway

0.5pt win on Max Schachmann at 20/1 with 365

0.25pts e/w on Jesus Herrada at 66/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Jan Hirt at 125/1 with Bet365

Back TDG at 70 or so on Betfair, lay out if he gets in the break for a free bet. 

Match Bets 

De La Cruz to beat Elissonde - 2pts at 8/11

Lopez to beat Maz and Porte to beat Landa - 2pts at 9/10 all with 365