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Published on Tuesday, 15 September 2020 21:02

TDF 2020 Stage 17

Grenoble to Méribel Col de la Loze

Wed July 13th, 168kms 

A tough day of climbing in the Alps, with two monster climbs to get over. First up the Col de La Madeliene, which takes them to 2,000m followed by a first ever time up the Col de la Loze, which reaches the highest point in the Tour at 2,304m.

We were sort of hoping that this stage would be one hell of a battle between Bernal, at his element on the only stage over 2,000m, the Slovakians, the other Colombians (MAL, Quintana and Uran) and whoever else might have been still involved. I don't think many of us expected Richie Porte to be involved in a podium battle, but here we are, Bernal's failure has given him the opportunity. 

But alas, there will be no battle between Bernal and Roglic as we hoped for, instead it's going to be a showdown between the two Slovakians on the final big mountain stage. They are both excellent time triallists, there won't be much between them on Saturday, but it's worth noting that Pogacar beat Roglic in the Slovakian TT championships a month or so ago on an uphill, but shorter course. 

Stage 16 Review

Huge battle for the break as we expected, and it was brilliant to see Sam Bennett neutralise the Sagan attempts to get away or blow up Bennett in the early stages. There were guys all over the place for the first 20kms, and at one point a big break went which had Peters, Chaves, Alaphilippe, Schachmann and Soler in it for us and it was looking pretty decent. But unfortunately that break was reeled in, and try as they might, with several attempts, Peters and Chaves just couldn't get in the move that stuck. With Kamna and Oss getting in the move too Schachmann was forced to sit up.

Of the Sunweb boys, stage favourite (backed down to 15/2 pre-start!!) Marc Hirschi and Tiesj Benoot missed the move, but suddenly we see Casper Pedersen going like a bullet train off the front with Benoot in tow. They picked up Rolland who was struggling to bridge on his own and not long later they bridged to the break. Another group with Sivakov, Sicard and two others also bridged and a group of 23 built up a lead of almost 13 minutes with 38kms to go. 

Pierre Rolland did what I hoped Pierre Rolland would do and hoovered up the 10 KOM points on the first two Cat 2s, but wasn't able to go with the leaders on the Cat 1 late in the stage. Kamna, Reichenbach, Alaphiippe and Carapaz stretched on, leaving Roche and Benoot and co. behind and suddenly it was just Carapaz and Kamna as Alaphilippe fell tamely away, then Reichenbach. 

Kamna kicked on over the top of the climb but it wasn't just for the points, it was a full-on attack and surprisingly Carapaz couldn't stay with him. Kamna soloed to a super victory, finally a reward for the Bora team who have come so close on a number of occassions. Carapaz stayed on for 2nd ahead of Reichenbach, with Benoot in 7th place and Alaphilippe in 10th. 

There were not other major news items out of the day, except for David Gaudu abandoning and Egan Bernal rolling home with the sprinters in the grupetto. He said his back was causing him a lot of pain today and compensating led to discomfort in a knee.. He says he wants to ride on to Paris. Is it all just a big bluff ahead of a big attack for the stage win tomorrow? I'm not sure.. there's bluffing and rolling home and there's bluffing but still being able to finish in a group a bit faster than the sprinters' grupetto.

A disaster of a day picks-wise, incredibly disappointing to have had so many in the first move that could have won the stage, and the stage favourite Alaphiippe and Benoot in the second move and get nothing out of it. Only bit of luck we had was Gaudu abandoning so our first matchbet won. Soler delivered Mas towards the front with 1km to go, riding in front of Martinez, then sat up and dropped out of the lead group. I felt as beat up as Bernal at the end of the stage. 

The Route

The intermediate sprint comes after 45kms, where we will see yet another battle between Bennett, Morkov and Sagan, where it should finish in that order again you'd imagine. It's flat though for the first 88kms until they reach the foot of the Madeleine.

They are coming up the Madeleine from a new side, ascending it from La Chambre in the south-west. It is still almost a one-hour climb, totalling nearly 20kms at nearly 8% though. The bottom 4kms are the hardest, averaging closer to 10%, but then it eases in to a pretty steady 7.5% for the remaining 14kms. 25kms of a fast and tricky descent is followed by 15kms of regathering yourself ahead of the final climb to the Col de la Loze.

The climb passes through Meribel, an area popular with those in to their skiing, with the climb continuing on to the famous Courcheval ski resort. This is a really hard climb to finish off the race in the mountains, with 4.5kms being particularly hard, hitting highs of over 11% and averaging 10.4%. But the 17kms before that are pretty brutal too, averaging 7.1%, but with some parts as low as 4-6% and some parts over 8%. It's a long climb too, another hour effort, and it will go a long way towards shaping the final top 10. 

The last 4.5kms really ramp up, with the road suddenly kicking in to the black sections you see in the profile.. they go from 6-8% gradients to 10-11% all of a sudden. And it stays hard all the way to the line, averaging 10.7% for the last 4.4kms. The road zig-zags a lot through lots of hairpins inside the last 10kms until about 2.5kms to go, where the road actually hits 24% on that final hairpin bend. There is one more really steep part with 500m to go that hits 18%, but the last 2kms are just a long, straight grind to the line. 

 It was used in the Tour de l'Avenir last year, when Australian Alexander Evans took victory - but the stage was only 23kms long, a straight-up shootout over the entire distance of the Col. He took 1:05:39 to climb it, beating Michel Ries by 12" and Michel Champoussin by 24". It will be interesting to see how the pros time compares in a TDF stage, which comes after having already climbed the Madeleine. 

Preview

Two races going on again today, the break, plus the GC. The break will be hoping that they get enough of a lead going over the Madeleine with 60kms to go to hold on to the finish. But I think they will need around 7-8 mins lead starting the Loze in order to hang on. It's possible, a good strong break full of climbers could pull out 5-6 mins on the Madeleine if the peloton rolls up it like they rode most of today's stage. They will need to have built up a 4-5 min advantage by the foot of it though, and that's where there could be more of a challenge. 

It's more or less flat for the first 85kms, which means that small climbers won't be able to build up much of a lead, they will need some stronger team-mates with them, or get a good mix in the break of rouleurs to help them drive up the gap. Also, there is the intermediate sprint again after 45.5kms, which means we could see Bora going full gas again from the start in order to try to drop Bennett, there are a couple of small little hills they could cause problems for Bennett on.

But Sam should be ok, and maybe it's best for Sagan to actually try to get in the break instead and take points that way instead. You can be sure that Trentin will try to get in the break again, he picked up 22pts today and is now just 12pts behind Sagan in 3rd place. 

As for the break candidates, well they are mostly the same guys as today, but without those that used a lot of energy. Rolland will probably get in the break, he will have his eyes on the points at the top of the Madeleine. But the fact that he didn't take any points on the Cat 1 today suggests that he might not have the legs after all and the ball is now back in the court of Pog and Rog, who will probably be taking the double points on the Loze. 

So Dan Martin, giving him another go - he got in the break today at first, but that one was shut down as Guillaume Martin had infiltrated it. He then rode close to the front for most of the stage but put the brakes on and saved the legs on the final climb, coming home 27 mins down. 

Astana could have a few guys in the move, Lutsenko and Fraile tried today but didn't make it and they ended up with no one in the break at all in the end. They might be asked to look after MAL, but also they might try to play the card of having someone up the hill on the Loze for him to bridge to. I want to give Harold Tejada another go, he'll love this high altitude finish and at 150/1 he's worth a shot. 

Movistar - might go with Soler again today, he looked strong at the finish, cruising up to look after Mas before dropping away, he tried today but didn't make it either. 

The way Kamna is riding, he could have another go tomorrow. Yes, he went hard at the end, but he had it relatively easy up until then as Oss did all the work for him. And he looked so strong when he did pull away, he obviously has monster legs at the moment. 

Marc Hirschi failed today, he will try again tomorrow for sure, I don't think any of the other Sunweb guys are suited to this stage. 

AG2Rs best hopes again are probably Vuillermoz and Peters. Vuillermoz came home in a strongish group today with Pinot, Gorka, Edet etc just a minute behind the GC group, I think he has really good legs, but I don't think this is his sort of stage. Peters came home with Buchmann, Herrada and Chaves 8 mins behind the GC group today, he is sure to try again, he was very active at the start today, tried 3 or 4 times to get away.  

Chaves? I think we'll give up on him for now, watch to see if he gets in the break. It's proving frustrating watching him, as he obviously wants to get in the breaks, but the big boys keep riding away from him. If he gets in the break, have a saver on him. 

I think Hugh Carthy and Martinez will be on duty for Uran again, but watch out for if Martinez is with the GC group and Uran is safe (or has struggled and dropped out of contention), we could see him try a late attack. Thibaut Pinot is only 28/1, he tried to get in the break today, the failed move, maybe he'll try again, but one to watch for in-play again I think. 

For Arkea, Quintana struggled again today, but only inside the last 2kms or so, he might try to get in the break, but I think he is still struggling badly from his injuries, and apparently some sort of all-over nettle rash?! Warren Barguil was in the break today and wasn't up to much, he didn't even try for KOM points and fell tamely away. 

CCC have been very active, maybe we'll see Alessandro de Marchi finally go on the attack, maybe with Trentin to help him get the intermediate points? He has been very anonymous in this race though, no glimpse of form at all. I would like to have seen David de La Cruz given a chance to try and go in the break and for a stage win, but it looks like he's the only one capable of being a decent domestique to Pogacar now, he was leading him out when they started to stretch things in the last km today. 

Nicolas Edet or Jesus Herrada might fancy it for Cofidis, maybe they could be used for a G Martin attack like we saw today, if he tries to bridge to them on the Madeleine or on the Loze. This final climb is the sort of climb you can just see Herrada grinding away for mile after mile on, maybe getting dropped from someone's fast acceleration, but grinding back on and going on to win it.  

Do we try Egan Bernal or any of the Ineos guys? I don't think so. Carapaz wasn't good enough today and he was the best of them.. and he left a lot on the road. We might see a miracle recovery from Egan, but I don't think so. 

But the bookies make the GC men favourites, and it's going to be a close one I think. I'm not sure JV will want to drive it on the Madeleine and tire themselves out, and again on the Loze and leave themselves open to a late attack from Pogacar. They'll be happy to let the break take the bonus seconds and try to mark any moves by the likes of Pog and Lopez. 

UAE, Astana, Trek, Bahrain, M-S and EF might help to work to keep the gap down, this is the last big chance for some of their men to attack Roglic and try to take time off him ahead of the TT. The problem is that Uran, Porte and Landa have looked flat-footed and laboured and incapable of delivering a knockout attack that will get them away from JV. Porte is well able to follow, but he is like a slow-moving diesel rather than the sprightly Slovenians.

Pog looks the only one capable of taking the stage from Roglic, he's shown already that he can finish off a stage like this, the last kick to the line on the Grand Colombier was 10%, this is 9.7%. He will be looking to try to get a gap and take a few seconds along with the bonuses, every little step will help. 

MAL showed some fight today, attacking away and getting a gap at the end, he's got good legs.. but he was unable to stay with the acceleration of Pog and Rog on Sunday. He will have to do something similar I think tomorrow and try to get the jump on them maybe 500m-1km from the line and hope he holds on. He does well on climbs over 2000m generally, the two stages he won in the Vuelta in 2017 were at 2145 and 2450m. 

One important thing to note is that the weather tomorrow looks like it's going to take a turn for the worse, with thunderstorms forecast for the afternoon, especially around the Madeleine, and crucially, on the descent. It might dry up a little later in the day, but there will be plenty of wet roads and wet riders tomorrow. 

So it looks like it could be a break day, and I'll try some hopefuls again. I think we'll know pretty much by the foot of the Madeleine whether they will make it or not, so can reassess then if needs be - if it looks like the GC men will be fighting out the stage, I'll be backing Pogacar in play again. He did really well in the rain in the Vuelta last year, and he's clearly the strongest and most aggressive rider in the race. I'd like to back MAL e/w at 12/1, but knowing him he'll finish 4th again. I might watch for the '1-3 finishing position' on Bet365 in play for odds on him. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Marc Soler at 33/1 with Will Hill

0.25pts e/w on Dan Martin at 100/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Esteban Chaves at 33/1 with various

0.5pts win on Nans Peters at 80/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Jesus Herrada at 80/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Harold Tejada at 150/1 with PP/Betfair

Matchbets:

Mas to beat Uran and Lopez to beat Yates - 3pts at 9/10 with Bet365

Pogacar to beat Roglic and Porte to beat Landa - 2pts at 1.3/1