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Published on Sunday, 13 September 2020 18:32

TDF 2020 Stage 16

La Tour-du-Pin to Villard-de-Lans

Tues 14th July, 164kms 

A very tricky, lumpy day in the saddle that kicks off the tryptich of stages in the Alps. There are lots of climbs on the route to test the GC men, but it looks like it could well be a day for the breakaway. 

it's a lumpy, hard start to the stage again, with a climb straight from the flag drop and for the first 8kms, then another climb up the Cat 4 Cote de Virieu after just 12.5kms. The intermediate sprint comes after 44.5kms, so you can be sure that Bora will drill it in the opening 15kms or so again in an effort to get rid of Bennett again, but I think he might be ok in this one, the first hill only averages 4% and the second one is just 2.3kms long at 6.8%. 

The break will form early I think and we could see them build up a big lead before they even reach the Col de Porte, and we could see JV just control it here so the break could really stretch out the gap. 

Stage 15 Review

Small break went after a big battle again, but none of our men in it - in fact, Chaves and Mitchelton tried repeatedly to get in the break, but he's just not powerful enough to be able to help pull a break along on the flat to catch the first groups. The peloton kept a tight leash on them though with the gap never going over about 5 minutes. 

Pierre Rolland, Michael Gogl, Jesus Herrada and Simon Geschke proved the strongest out of the break, with Pierre Rolland hoovering up lots of points for the KOM competition, dropping everyone else by the top of the Biche. He held a 2'10" lead going over the top with 45km to go. 

Behind JV continued to turn the screw, with Tony Martin, Wout Van Aert and Robert Gesink all pulling really hard on the Biche, and as they crested the Biche, Roglic still had 5 riders with him. Ineos looked to be falling apart early, with Sivakov, Carapaz and Kwiatkowski all struggling, and Rowe, Amador and Castroviejo long dropped. 

But that was just a warning flare, as things really blew up for the Grenadiers soon after, when Bernal started going out the back door. Wout Van Aert set a frankly unbelieveable pace for over SEVEN kilometres on the front for Jumbo, and in doing so stripped the GC group down to about 20 riders, with Quintana, Bernal, Kwaitkowski and loads more unable to handle the pace. 

And it just got worse for Bernal, losing over 7 minutes by the finish, and with it the dream. It's all over for him, but the battle for yellow doesn't look like it's over just yet, with Tadej Pogacar taking a fantastic victory, after a 20km lead-out by Jumbo Visma. I really thought we were in with a chance of a payout on Miguel Angel Lopez as they hit the last 500m, but of course he finished 4th and just outside the places. 

I did call on twitter I was backing Pogacar as a saver, like I said I would in last night's preview, with about 5kms to go, I took 3pts at 3/1 on betfair which softened the damage, I hope some more of you did the same. He was incredible, Jumbo and Roglic were incredible, but so too was Richie Porte in finishing 3rd. He now moves up to 6th overall, how he must be kicking himself for losing time in the winds earlier in the race.

Rigo Uran remains in 3rd but looks under pressure from MAL and the others, he looked to be on the limit at the finish again today. Lopez is stealthily moving along nicely, he could well overtake Uran, but is likely to have a bad day or an incident at some point, and is likely to lose tons of time in the final TT.. So who finishes 3rd behind the two Slovenians (whichever one it is, it's still all to play for I think..)?

Well right now there's just a minute and a half between Uran in 3rd and Landa in 7th, and it is shaping up to be an excellent battle with Lopez, Yates and Porte well and truly in the fight for the podium spot. You would think that Porte would have the best TT of the lot of them, and seems to be riding so well he'll possibly take more time on other stages like today. But don't count out Adam Yates, he was the only one to throw a punch at the favourites today, getting a gap for a while before being reeled in by Tom Dumoulin's relentless drive. Still, I have Porte as my favourite to finish in the top 3 and am adding a 3pts bet on him at 11/10 to do so with Bet365. 

One matchbet won for us today at evens, the other went down because it turned out it was Tom's turn to pull before Kuss today, but also because Carapaz finished 28 minutes down, no doubt partly because he crashed with Hugo Hofstetter about 60kms from the finish. 

Huge blow for EF in the Teams classification though with the abandonment of Sergio Higuita after getting wiped out by Bob Jungels, They have lost a big player for them to finish consistenly high and as a result have tumbled to 3rd in the Teams Classification, with Movistar surging back to the top after great rides by Valverde, Mas and Verona. 

Sam Bennett clings on to Green and looks more like taking the jersey with every day that passes, he will take a lot more points than Sagan in Paris, it's up to Sagan to try to take a stage which isn't likely given the types of stages left in the race. 

The KOM competition is still wide open, no one has taken a grip on it this year, with Pierre Rolland the only one currently who seems interested and capable enough to go out and try to take points on stages like today, and at first I thought I'd rather be a layer than a backer at 9/2, that's very short considering Pogacar and Roglic are likely to take a lot of points in the coming week. 

But looking at what's coming up - we have tomorrow's stage, which is likely to see Rolland try to get in the break again. He could easily take the top points on offer on all the climbs up to and including the Cat 1 20kms from home. I don't think he'll win the stage, but maybe he'll back off a little and save the legs for Wednesday, but take the jersey off Cosnefroy.

Because, again, all he needs to do is get in the break on stage 17 and take the 20pts for the HC climb of the Madeleine, before easing back again. It's likely Pog or Rog will win the stage again and take the jersey back off him, but I think he is very likely to take it back again on stage 18 from the break again, with three Cat 1s out on the course that the break is likely to take. He may be far enough ahead (30-40pts) by the final TT to be able to hold off Pog or Rog who might take big points on the last Cat 1. 

Of course he might find some opposition from the likes of Hirschi, but he could well fade in the final week. There could also be a challenge from someone out of the picture like Quintana, who might hoover up points some day from the break, maybe even winning the big points on stage 17.

But on balance, I think the 9/2 with Betway looks a great e/w bet, he's got a big chance I think of sustaining a push for the jersey - and you know how it is, sometimes when someone gets in the jersey he is given a bit more respect and permission to take the points from guys who are not fighting for the jersey, so if he's in breaks he might be just let take the points to take him in to the top 3, and if it works out like I think it might above, he could take a nice consolation prize for the French. 2pts e/w at 9/2 with Betway. 

The Route

They head south and in to the Alps on a challenging and very tiring day that starts off with two little bumps inside the opening 12.5kms that will have the sprinters under pressure from the get-go. Shortly after the intermediate sprint, after 44.5kms, the climbing starts, and it's up and down all the way to the finish from there on.  

Three big climbs on the route spread out pretty evenly, each with their own challenges. The Col de Porte is almost 20kms from the very bottom to the top, with the categorised part being 8.5kms at 6%. 15kms of a very fast descent offers its own challenges, but then it's straight on to the Cote de Revel, which is around 9kms at 6.7%, but it carries on for a few kms more once past the KOM point. 

The final climb to Saint Niziere de Moucherotte is really 16kms from the bottom to the top, but is sort of split in two sections too - a short 2km blast at about 7.5% is followed by a short downhill section, then it kicks up for the categorised part for the next 11kms at 6.5%.

But it's likely that as the final big climb of the day comes almost 20kms from the finish, we are unlikely to see any major GC battles today, and instead we should see whoever is the strongest of the break coming to the fore and potentially soloing to the finish. There's one last sting in the tail though with the uphill run to Vilard de Lans that averages around 4.6% for the last 4kms, with a Cat 3 stretch to the finish line of 2.2kms at 6.5%. 

Contenders and Favourites

Break candidates first - Dan Martin - I think he's getting better and better, managed to stay with the leaders today for a long time, but also knew when to knock it back to save the legs for future stages. I like him for this because the uphill start will favour the climbers this time to get in the break, and also the final climb will suit him, as well as the 6.5% kick to the line. 

Esteban Chaves - going to give him another go for the same reasons as above and because he has been so desperate to try to get in to breaks, but flat starts have been his downfall. 

Omar Fraile and Luis Leon Sanchez were two that I was thinking about for this one too, I think they are both riding well. But with MAL challenging for the podium now, maybe not, it might be all about looking after MAL who always seems to find trouble at some point in a race. 

Thomas de Gendt - this looks like one for him too, he tested the legs on the finish on Saturday, it all looks like we're building up to a De Gendt day soon, and he only has four days left to try something.

Max Schachmann - clearly riding really well and backed off early today to save the legs. Has the power to get in the break early on and has a great finishing kick on him if it comes to a sprint from the break guys. 

Alexis Vuillermoz - I've been waiting for a stage to back him, and I think this could be the one - he will like this course and the finishing kick and rode very well today to sit there with the favourites group looking relatively comfortable up until about 14kms to go.  80/1 looks massive.

Julian Alaphilippe - another obvious one, he has tried to get in breaks but this looks like one he'll be all over. And the finish suits his swash-buckling, early attack style too, you can just imagine him launching himself off the front with 1km to go and soloing to the win. 8/1 with Betway is very short but the 11/1 with Unibet is a bit better, I might have a 1pt saver on him just in case. 

Marc Hirschi is joint favourite with some books with Alaphilippe and he's another who you have to respect based on his Tour so far. He did look absolutely cooked to me early on today, so I'm a bit hesitant to back him pre-stage at just 11/1. If he gets in the break we can re-assess and decide whether to back him around 6/1 as a saver too. 

The Colombian Dan Martin, Daniel Martinez, is just 16/1, and to be honest, having seen what happened today to Higuita, I don't think Martinez will be winning another stage. He is now going to be firmly in 'look after Rigo' role and will not be given the freedom to attack any more, so I will not be backing him at that price. 

It's intresting to see Michal Kwiatkowski trading at just 18/1, I'm guessing that the rationale is that he will now be going stage hunting with Bernal out of the picture, and he has been looking stronger and stronger in the last week. But I can't back him at just 18/1.

Thibaut Pinot, Damiano Caruso, Nans Peters, David Gaudu are all around 28/1, but don't really appeal to me for this one, but Marc Soler at 40/1 might give it another go, Movistar will be all-in now for the team classification and will want someone like Soler in the break. 

Of course, it could all come down to a GC battle again, with Pog and Rog fighting it out, but I think with the Col de la Loze stage coming the next day, they will take it easy and the break will make it. Lots of darts being thrown, hopefully we'll get some in the break to give us some excitement on what could be a relatively boring stage. 

UPDATE, 08:30: I'm adding Tiesj Benoot at 28/1, I read in an interview in a Belgian website yesterday that he was targeting this stage and he's feeling a lot better. I took 100/1 on Bet365 when I saw that, but literally by the time I had got to a computer to add a recommendation he had been cut to 25/1 on Bet365. I thought about it and still think he's recommending as a saver because I don't want to be the only one cheering him this evening if he wins. 

Also, Nans Peters, I forgot he was a local boy, from the Grenoble area, as I've seen pointed out in a few places, so based on that fact, and it's probably his last chance to go for a stage win, I'm adding a little on him too. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Dan Martin at 40/1 with Betway

0.5pts win on Thomas de Gendt at 40/1 with Betway 

0.5pts e/w on Alexis Vuillermoz at 80/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Marc Soler at 40/1 with various

0.5pts win on Max Schachmann at 18/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Esteban Chaves at 20/1 with Unibet

0.5pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 11/1 with Unibet

ADDING:

Tiesj Benoot - 0.5pts win at 28/1 with Will Hill/ Betfair

Nans Peters - 0.5pts win at 38 on Betfair

Match-Bets

2pts on Vuillermoz to beat Gaudu at 5/6 with Bet365

2pts on Marc Soler to beat Dani Martinez at 2/1 with Bet365

Put the above 2 in a treble with Porte to beat Landa at 7.43/1 with Bet365, 1pt on that.