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Published on Saturday, 12 September 2020 18:02

TDF 2020 Stage 15

Lyon to Grand Colombier

September 13th, 174.5kms 

After many years of going over the Grand Colombier, we get a summit finish on the 'Bugey Pyramid'. Cycling fans have long wanted one and the TDF have finally delivered, so we'll be treated to some spectacular shots up those famous hairpins.

It's a stage of two halves you could say, with the first 100kms being totally flat as they head east along the Rhone valley, but that changes pretty quickly after they pass through Artemare, with the road rising upwards immediately at a pretty steep gradient. 

Stage 14 Review

So we didn't get the furious attack-fest at the start we thought we would, there wasn't much of a battle and Kung and Theuns went up the road. Cees Bol of all people tried to follow them, and Casper Pedersen jumped out to try to bridge to him. He did make the bridge, but they had a quick chat and decided it was futile to keep going, the break wasn't what they hoped it would be. And it showed later that Bol just didn't have good legs as he was dropped on the Col de Beal.

Bora took it up as they started on the Beal and pushed it really hard all the way up, stringing the peloton out and putting Bennett under immense pressure at the back. Bennett did very well though and was only 20" off the back as they crested the top. But Bora kept on pushing really hard at the front all the way down the descent

On the descent there was more bad luck for Trek as Toms Skujins crashed with DDLC, but luckily they seemed to be ok. Bora were relentless though, and they kept pushing it up the next Cat 3 climb too and suddenly the gap was up around the minute mark. CCC came and helped them, the gap went to about 2 minutes, DQS gave it one last go with about 90kms to go to pull it back, but gave up with 80kms to go as they were unable to pull it any closer than 1'30". 

The last 15kms were brilliant though - attacks came thick and fast, as no one really wanted to take control at the front - Benoot started the ball rolling, and for a while had a nice little gap. But he was chased down by Kamna, TDG and Alaphilippe who came flying up the hill after him. But it all came back together as they hit the 3kms to go marker and suddenly Soren Kragh Andersen went flying off the front as they started the descent. Sunweb blocked and marked behind and he was gone! 

A brilliant win for Sunweb again, a brilliant win for Soren Kragh, and a brilliant win for us. SKA also won his match-bet with Hirschi (who did indeed repay the favour for SKA's help in his stage win) but annoyingly Luca Mezgec picked this stage of all days to pop up in 2nd place and bust our double, even though Stuyven finished a superb 6th place. Still, it's a winner and a profitable day.

Greg Van Avermaet was disappointing in the end, he chased down Sagan's stupid attack and had nothing left after that. Sagan and Bora really made a mess of things today too, after burning matches all day they only had Kamna left with Sagan and instead of looking after him he went on a futile attack with a TDF peloton breathing down his neck. Sagan then was doing way too much, chasing down Hirschi, so much, that in the end he could only manage 3rd in the sprint, and finished 4th. Bennett will be delighted with the result, it could have been a lot worse in the race for Green. 

The Route

Flat for 100kms as they head due east out of the Lyon, with barely a ripple in the road for the opening 58kms until they pass through the interemediate sprint, then about 8kms later there is a small little bump to get over but it's not even categorised. 

But after 98kms at Artemare the picture changes completely as the road suddenly turns skyward. The first climb is the Montee de la Selle de Fromentel, which averages 8.1% for 11.5kms, with the climb getting steeper the higher up it goes, with the last three kilometres on the climb averaging 11.5%, 14.5% and 12.5%.

Then a quick dive down the other side for 9kms and straight on to the Col de Biche. The Biche is a bit of a bitch too, 7kms at almost 9%, with parts hitting up to 11.6%. At the top there's a short descent and then another little kick up before the long 26km descent takes them to Culoz and the foot of the Grand Colombier.

Even the name inspires fear and dread, the GRAND Colombier.. nothing small about this one.. 17.4kms in total at an average of 7.1%, but it goes up in steps, with some flatter parts for about 3kms in total. The climbing parts probably average around 8% for the 14kms or so of actual climbing, with several sections around 9-10%. The last two kilometres ease back a little to around 6%, but then kicks up at 10% for the last 400m.

Contenders and Favourites

100kms on the flat with an intermediate sprint half way, it will be another interesting start to the stage. Do DQS try to control the breaks again in order to make sure a small group goes and then go after the remaining points? They won't be winning from the GC group later on, so maybe they'll try to get Alaphiiippe in the break so they don't have to do the pulling and maybe if it goes all the way he might have a chance.

If you do want to get in the break of the day though early on, it's a big ask to go all the way - you will have to have a number of strong rouleurs with you to help build a big lead, and then be a very good climber in order to be able to try to finish off the day. It was a very hard day again today though for the whole peloton, Bora really made them suffer until about 80kms to go when DQS sat up with Bennett, and finally there was a bit of calm at the front too. 

I am not as sure the break makes it today, I think it could well be a GC day this time. As I said, it's a big ask to be out the front all day, as Dan Martin said after Friday's stage to the Puy Mary stage, they were pretty cooked pretty early as they had to ride so hard early on just to hold the gap until finally they were let go..

BUT, maybe, there might not be too many teams who are interested in chasing, they might want to keep all their bullets for the start of the climbing, when all hell could break loose again. If that is the case, we could see a situation like the Puy Mary stage again where the break gets a 10 minute lead, and if they do, they might well have enough of a buffer to go all the way this time. 

Some of the Astana boys are sure to be interested in this one, I think it might be time to consider Alexey Lutsenko again, he's strong for on the flat and he's great on a tough finish as we know. Omar Fraile and LL Sanchez are two more who might be interested. I think I will give Harold Tejada another go while he is still a big price, this sort of finish up the Grand Colombier is right up his street, if he gets in the break he could feature at the finish. 

Bora had a really hard day today, pushing all day at the front, so it's hard to imagine they'll have much energy to do anything, but Max Schachmann seems to be going so well, and he didn't have as hard a day as some of his team-mates, as he punctured and rolled in at his leisure, so he might go again.. But I think he'll take the opportunity to recharge the batteries ahead of next week. 

Could DQS try to get Alaphilippe in the break then? It's very possible, he looked his usual sprightly self at the end of the stage today, but ran out of gas and wasn't able to get away. It's a different sort of stage tomorrow though, but I think it's too tough for him unless he's with some really bad climbers, which is unlikely.

FDJ tried and failed with their attempts on stage 13 to get a number of men in the break, they ended up with Madouas, who just wasn't up to the task when Schachmann rode away from him. Gaudu and Molard might fancy it, but they just don't look like they have it to me, they look a broken team. 

EF are sure to try to get some men in the break again, they did a brilliant job on Friday and it is pretty clear now that they are taking the team competition very seriously. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same guys go up the road again, with Powless, Van Garderen, Carthy and Martinez all possibles, with maybe 2 or 3 making it again.

It is often the case when we get to the end of the second week and in to the third week of a Grand Tour, you start to see the same rider featuring and sometimes taking multiple stage wins. And Daniel Martinez looks like he could be one of those kinds of riders, he looked super-strong on the Puy Mary finish, reeling in Schachmann on his own and fighting off the Bora duo. If he can get in the break, you'd have to think he'd be one of the favourites to take the win on that finish. Or if he doesn't get in the move, but it gets reeled in on the Fromental or the Biche, we could well see him take off in an effort to get a gap as the GC teams just set tempo.

Movistar will be smarting after losing the teams classification lead to EF like that, with Marc Soler the only one to get in the break. He rode very well, but wasn't able to go with the Martinez move. He has been looking very good, can he go again? Carlos Verona also tried to get in that break, but was one of those reeled in early on, he might try again, and Imanol Erviti might be asked to get in the break too, but they aren't good enough in my opinion.

CCC worked very hard today for Greg, with Alessandro De Marchi doing a lot of the work, all for no reward either.. I think he might need a stage or two before he has the legs to go again. Simon Geschke might go again, but this is too hard for him, and Jan Hirt couldn't stay with the front group today, not a good sign. 

Cofidis will be looking to the likes of Nicholas Edet, who rode very well on stage 13 to finish in 6th place, he was just 1'53" behind Martinez. But he has only 2 pro wins to his name, a terrible return for a 32-year-old and he rides for Cofidis, who can't buy a win.. 

Esteban Chaves looked very keen to get in the break on Friday, he tried twice, but he just didn't have the power to pull away from a JV-led peloton that were going full gas. If it's a bit more relaxed at the front he might have more of a chance to get away this time, and again, it's a finish that will suit the Colombian well. 

Can Dan Martin try again? I wouldn't put it past him, he's made of stern stuff. He was delighted with his ride on Friday, saying that just a month ago exactly he could barely walk and couldn't pick up his kids he was so sore after his crash. He was very happy to be able to push hard again and he was one of the main reasons the break got away and built up the lead they did to be able to stay away. He might wait until next week though after going so deep, but watch out for him near the front at the start of the stage to see if he's interested. 

Sunweb are flying - is it Hirschi time again? Well they were fantastic to watch again and Hirschi played his part without going too much in to the red, he could well try again. But 12/1? It's very short, but you know that if he does get in the break he'll give you a good run for your money. You might get bigger when other bookies other than Betway come out with their odds. 

B&B - Pierre Rolland will be their main man again, he will be on the attack I think, maybe even try to take the KOM points on the first two climbs, as he looks interested in the KOM competition again, but I think the final climb might be too much for him, he won't be able to stay with the super-fast climbers. 

AG2R have lost Bardet and Latour in two days, so no more GC men to have to look after so they might try to get in the break. Nans Peters looked pretty cooked today when they zoomed in on him with 65kms to go, Cosnefroy doesn't have the legs any more for a stage like this either, so they might be looking to Mikael Cherel or Alexis Vuillermoz, but I don't think it suits either of them anyway

The bookies are pricing it up as a matchbet basically between Roglic and Pogacar again though at 4/1 each of them, and if I had to pick between the two, I think Pogacar would be my choice, I think he will race him all the way to the line and try to take a few seconds off him, this slightly easier finish will suit him more than the Puy Mary. 

Egan Bernal tried a surprise attack today inside the last 5kms, probably more out of frustration than anything else, but it was good to see him testing the legs. Can he bounce back on the Grand Colombier, with it's longer, easier gradients? Well, I wouldn't be surprised to see him try an attack, and he may even look to team up with the likes of Uran or Quintana to try to unsettle the Slovakians. 

Richie Porte obviously has some of the best legs we've seen from him in a long time, could he try something? It would be great to see some of the other guys try something tomorrow - maybe an early attack on the Fromental or the Biche, to see if they can isolate Pog and Rog early on in the stage, to try to attack them on the final climb.

Adam Yates and Miguel Angel Lopez are two more who could take advantage of a stalling by the top two guys, if there are punch after punch from the likes of Bernal, Quintana, Richie, then MAL or Yates could try a late attack too. Lopez has the punch and the attitude to try something late on, and even if he doesn't get the better of the top two guys, he might chase them home in 3rd, so 25/1 e/w is something I want a little bit of. 

It's very likely we'll see Pog all on his own, but it will be much harder to strip away Bennett, Dumouliin, Kuss, Gesink and WVA. In fact, the effort might backfire on them if they don't make it count fast, leaving them exposed to being out of matches for the final climb if Pog and Rog go full gas again. 

It's hard to see past either of the top two though if it comes to a GC day, but I'm going to throw a few break darts and hope they get enough of a lead to get to the Grand Colombier with the stage win between them. I'll also add MAL just in case they do come back and might back Pogacar in the last 20kms if they look like they're going to get caught.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dani Martinez at 8/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w at 12/1 on Marc Hirschi 

0.5pts e/w on Esteban Chaves at 25/1

0.5pts e/w on Alexey Lutsenko at 50/1 with Betway

Matchbets:

Dumoulin to beat Kuss and Carapaz to beat G Martin - 3pts at 9/10

Martinez to beat Soler and Valverde to beat Caruso - 2pts at evens