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Published on Friday, 11 September 2020 19:12

TDF 2020 Stage 14

Clermont Ferrand - Lyon

September 12th, 194kms 

This is a really interesting looking stage, a wild route with lots of climbing and and finishing circuit around Lyon that takes in two punchy little hills before a possible sprint finish at the end of a flat last 2kms. 

With the tough day today on the Puy Mary, and an even tougher stage on Sunday up the Grand Colombier, it could well be another day for the break away as the GC men and their teams take it easy ahead of the battles to come. 

Stage 13 Review

This stage was bonkers from the start, a really hard start saw attack after attack after attack try to get away, one of the key ones instigated by Alaphilippe and Dan Martin. A small group of five formed, with local Clermont man Remi Cavagna there to help out Alaphilippe, but the attacks kept coming from behind and Jumbo kept chasing. Eventually it settled down and a large group were finally given the green light to go. 

EF were mob-handed with 3 riders up front, with Carthy, Martinez and Nelson Powless, but we also had our men Barguil and Rolland up there too. At one point Nans Peters was in the chasing group but fell out of it, most of them made it across. The lead grew rapidly when JV eventually knocked it off, and suddenly it was up around 8 mins and the fight was between the break men for the stage. 

There was a crash in the peloton in the descent, the focus of the cameras was on Bardet, who seemed to have banged his head and was a bit groggy on his feet, as well as Quintana who was getting back on his bike, but unseen was Bauke Mollema had also come to grief. Shortly after we got the very disappointing news that he had abandoned and the first of our bets went down - I was secretly pretty confident he would win that one too. 

Heading towards Saler, Neilson Powless just charged off the front on the descent, and suddenly he had 25". Max Schachmann jumped across to them and with 23kms to go as they headed towards the Neronne, they held a 42" lead. Behind, it was interesting that Ineos were who took up the pulling at the front, JV seemed happy to let them take over for a while. 

With 18kms to go Schachmann pulled away from Powless and the gap to those behind swelled to over a minute as they squabbled over who would do the pulling. Unfortunately for our men, they weren't able to go with the leaders, and Martinez slowly, but surely ate in to Schachmann's lead as the brutal 11% gradient started to burn his legs. Kamna tried to attack first in the last 150m, but Martinez was straight on him and comfortably outsprinted him in the end. 

Behind there was a furious GC battle going on too, Bardet and G Martin cracked early, then there were glimpses of Bernal slipping back as Pog and Rog kicked on at the front. No one else could stay with them, but our 150/1 man Richie Porte did indeed show he had great legs to finish just behind them, if it had been a GC day, he'd have taken a podium spot. Landa and Lopez lost 16" to the top 2, Bernal lost 38" and now sits almost a minute behind Roglic.

EF moved in to the lead in the teams prize and Bennett just got over the line to get another stage out of the way. Rolland was our best finisher in 5th, with Dan Martin in 11th - a good effort from both of them, there will be more to come from them. One matchbet double landed, but Mollema crashing burnt the matchbet I was confident would land. But having seen how well Uran rode, it would have been close, but I still think he'd have been closer to Porte. 

Is it time to back Bernal? Well he said after the stage "I'm fine, my numbers are one of the best, but there are others who are better" - we know he doesn't like these really steep climbs and he's waiting for the long Alpine climbs, so at 12/1 on Betfair, I've had 1pt more just to see if we can trade it. Surely Roglic will start to fade at some point or have a bad day (but then he needs to get past Pogacar too..). I just don't think it's completely over for Bernal just yet. 

The Route

A flat-ish opening 40kms that sees them head south-west out of Clermont. Flat-ish, because there is a small Cat 4 climb after 32kms, and just 6kms later they reach the intermediate sprint. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bora try to rip it up up the climb in order to try to get rid of Sam Bennett and let Sagan take the max points. But it's only 1km, so he won't be too far off if he does slip back and he should be able to get back on in time I think. 

Straight after the sprint they start climbing, and in total they climb for the next 28kms at 3.8% to the top of the Col du Beal. The categorised part of the climb is 10.2kms at 5.6%, but that's a long, long climb. 20kms later they hit the Cat 3 Cote de Courreau (4kms at 5.7%) as they enter the Loire department. 

A long, gentle descent and a bit of a run along the flat for about 20kms and they start climbing again, and although they climb for 23kms in total, it's quite a gentle gradient, around 2%. 30kms of a descent later they hit the outskirts of Lyon and it should prove to be an exciting last 10kms. 

First up is the little lump of the the Cote de la Duchere (just 1.4kms long at 5.6%) but there's a little kicker for 700m before a short, flat 800m before the categorised part. Then a descent for just over 2kms, 1.5kms on the flat and they cross over the bridge, turn right and start climbing again with just 6.5kms to go.

The Cote de la Croix-Rousse is just 1.4kms at 4.8%, but there are some steeper parts in the middle as they wind their way through the three hairpins, one of which you can see in the picture below, it's not too steep, but will string things out and can be a launching pad for the punchier types to try to get away.

At the top it flattens out for about a kilometre along the Rue Philippe du Lassalle, turn sharply right and the road rises up a little more before it dives down from the 2km to go marker down to the river bank, where it's a straight run to the line for the last 1700m. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be fast and furious again, and I think one for the break, yet again. The peloton had a very tiring day today and they face the Grand Colombier tomorrow, so I think a break of 10-15 guys will get up the road again, but probably not until after the intermediate sprint after 40kms. The Cat 2 Col du Beal starts almost straight away and rises for the next 28kms, giving them ample opportunity to build up a big lead, as long as JV don't do what they did today and power it at the front in chase. It depends on who is in the break again, it looked like they just weren't happy with Sivakov from Ineos being in the break today, at first, but then let him go. 

Obviously a lot of our guys were up the road today, this is not as difficult a stage as that one, so we should get a different type of rider get up the road today. First guy that came to mind was Bob Jungels - I think DQS will be on the attack again and he sat back today and kept his legs fresh. The easier climbs should suit him and the rolling last 5kms will suit his punchy style too to attack away from his companions. He might roll through after the Int sprint and keep going and try to draw a few guys out with him. 

Thomas de Gendt tried today, but was pulled back in the big Jumbo chasedown at the start of the stage, he will probably like this stage and he's sure to give it a blast before taking it easy the next day on the Colombier (maybe babysitting Ewan home) and the rest day, before giving it a few more goes in the final week.

Peter Sagan has to be a big shout for this too, he can win in two ways possibly, with DQS trying to control it early on to get him to the int sprint with a chance of points, and then either try to put him in the break or else look to control the break with a few other teams in order to try to catch them in the last 40kms or so where it almost turns in to a MSR or Flander type of classic up and down, street-fight finish. He will be very keen to take big points at the finish here, as it's unlikely we'll see Bennett at the front. 

Jasper Stuyven could well be one for Trek to either go on the attack (he tried today for a while) or even to do like Sagan and try to get to the finish at the front of the race. Daryl Impey, Matteo Trentin and Greg Van Avermaet likewise, break hopefuls, but also with a chance at a classics-type finish.

But who of Trentin or Van Avermaet is the one to go with? Hard call that, Matteo Trentin won a stage here in 2013 with the exact same finish over the final two climbs, winning a sprint from the break that made it all the way. But that's a long time ago and Trentin doesn't win as much these days to be having too much faith in him at just 12/1. Van Avermaet has looked better to me and rode very well on stage 6 to Mont Aigoual, but was no match for Luts and Herrada on the final climb, this is far more suited to his finishing. 

Daryl Impey has been hanging around at the front of the peloton on a number of stages now where he looked like he was trying to get in breaks, but it just hasn't worked out for him, he has two chances again tomorrow too, go in the break and win it from there like he did last year, or stick with the GC men if it comes back together and maybe there are no sprinters left. 

Sunweb are flying, and will be full of confidence after their great performance on Thursday, I fancy Tiesj Benoot to have another go and maybe Hirshi will repay the favour and help him get up the road this time. Nikias Arndt and SK Andersen are two more who might fancy a go at this, but I think it's more suited to Teisj and he looked strong for a while towing the break away to help Hirschi the other day. I'm going to have a go at SKA too though as he too looked super strong on Thursday and if they have two cards in the break he might be the one to attack and get away. 

I don't think we'll be seeing Alaphilippe in the break, he's burnt a lot of matches in the last two days, but if it comes back together you can be sure he'll be on the attack on the final, or even penultimate climb. And if it does come back together, then Wout Van Aert is also a big shout, he will love this finish and could even try to string things out with an attack of his own as Jumbo sit back and let others do the chasing. 

EF rode very well today and it is clear that stage wins and the team prize are priorities for the team, they are probably going to try to get more guys in the break tomorrow. Alberto Bettiol could well be their man for a course like this, or even Jens Keukeleire, but Keuk has been very quite in the race so far. 

Oliver Naesen sprinted to 9th in Poitiers on stage 11, he might have been getting some practice in for stages like this where we might not see all the sprinters come to the finish, he's probably AG2R's best chance of a win here. 

NTT might look to Michael Valgren, they've been talking him up as a break candidate, but he's not been able to deliver on that yet, maybe this could be his chance? He's tempting at 80/1. And what about Sonny Colbrelli? Do we give him a go at a bit looking 80/1? He has been very poor all race, almost suggesting that there's something wrong with him, but if he's feeling better (he wasn't right at the back today, finished 110th) then he could well have a chance on this circuit-type finish to follow late attacks and win a sprint from a reduced group. Big risk though based on what we've seen of him. 

I think the break wins and am going to lump for guys I hope will try to get in the break, but Sagan does seem to offer opportunities to win from both the break and a late attack or from the sprint if it comes back together. I think I'll wait though and watch for his price in-play, if he gets in the break he probably won't be much lower than the 6/1 he currently is, and if it looks like the break will be brought back and he's in the peloton you'll probably get 6/1 or so on him in-play anyway. 

I like Van Avermaet, Impey and Stuyven, I know they are all similar kinds of guys, but I think at least one of them will get in the break, but also offer us opportunities if it comes back together. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 18/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Jasper Stuyven at 22/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Daryl Impey at 25/1 with Unibet

0.25pts e/w on Bob Jungels at 50/1 with Bet365

0.25pts e/w on Tiesj Benoot at 80/1 with Bet365 

0.5pts win on Soren Kragh Andersen at 16/1 with various

Matchbets

SKA to beat Hirschi - 2pts at 5/6

SKA to beat Hirschi and Stuyven to beat Mezgec - 2pts at 7/4