Details

Published on Thursday, 10 September 2020 19:10

TDF 2020 Stage 13

Chatel Guyon - Puy Mary

September 11th, 191.5kms

A 'Medium Mountain' stage that actually contains the most vertical metres climbed of any stage of the entire race, a whopping 4,400m. This is a tough day out in the Massif Central, where the weather can turn wet and cold from one valley to the next. 

The Puy Mary has been passed over a number of times in the Tour de France, but this is the first time that they are finishing on top of the 'Plomb du Cantal' as it's known locally. I know this area very well indeed, my ex-wife was from Aurillac, 40kms to the south-west of the Puy Mary, so I've been up here several times.

I've climbed it from the south side (right road on the pic above) and I've climbed it from the west side (the bottom road going out of shot) and this is the side they are coming up from on this stage. The west side they are coming up is definitely the hardest side, with some really steep ramps in the last 2-3kms. 

I was on the top of this climb back in 2004, on Bastille day, when Richard Virenque rode over it on the stage from Limoges to St Flour. It was my first taste of a mountain stage of the Tour and it was incredible. A long wait all day, but then the helicopters came in to view miles across the valley as the riders made their way up the Col de Neronne over to our left. 

Then the noise started below.. Virenque was away on the attack with Axel Merckx and was riding in to the polka dots on his last Tour de France. The French were going mental - "RICHARD, RICHARD, RICHARD" rang up the hill to us as he passed us by in a blur up the 11% gradients. Axel Merckcx had been dropped on the steeper parts about a kilometre below, when naughty Virenque attacked him as he took a drink from his bottle. 

Then the peloton came through, en masse in a block - with Armstrong and co. near the front, just cruising up this mountain like it was 1-2% gradient.. I was stunned by how easy they made it look.. we know now how they made it look so easy of course! 

It was also off the descent of this climb that Vinokourov ended up down a bank and in the trees on the wet and slippy descent in 2011 and had to abandon the race. Thankfully they will not be going down that descent this time.  

Stage 12 Review

Very frustrating stage, a shitty break goes up the road after a 20km battle to get away, it was never going to make it. So it then looked like it was going to become a GC/strongman's day and I thought we might still have a chance if it comes down to an uphill sprint finish with Schachmann or Impey, but Sunweb had other ideas. 

First it was Benoot and Hirschi attacked and they pulled out some chasers. Our boys Marc Soler and Max Schachmann joined them, and at one point, we had 3 of our men in the break, with Bob Jungels and Cosnefroy chasing behind. Benoot though pulled like crazy for Hirschi, getting them the gap that made sure they stayed away, and then fell away. We were left with two of our men vs Hirschi, but unfortunately they met a guy who is absolutely on fire at the moment and he just pulled away from them on a steep section of the Suc au May. 

There was all-out action behind, mostly led by Alaphilippe, with Roche marking him for Sunweb. They eventually caught our boys, Soler went out the back door, maybe to save his legs, but Schachmann fought on. He had nothing left for the sprint though, with Pierre Rolland popping up with a brilliant attack from the remnants of the break to take 2nd and Soren Kragh taking 3rd. 

Behind Sagan just about held on in there over the climbs, getting back on the run to the finish and got up to win the sprint for 13th to take 4pts, but Bennett and Morkov beat him in the Intermediate to take 2pts back. No major issues for the GC men, but I did notice Dan Martin slip off the back on the final hill, he might have his eye on tomorrow.  

The Route

This is a long, hard day in the saddle, and it could be a very stressful one for the GC men. The Auvergne is stunningly beautiful, as they head in to the Parc des Volcans, but boy is it hilly. There's barely a flat mile of road to be seen. They do find 10 flat kilometres as they leave Chatel Guyon though and head south, but from there on in the hills come thick and fast. 

They hit a Cat 1 after just 25kms, the Col de Ceyssat, which is 10.2kms at 6.1%, a very tough start to the day that will see the break go and build up a big lead. I think the GC men will just ride tempo for now, to save the legs for later in the stage, so the break will gain a large lead pretty quickly. 

Then a Cat 3 after 63kms, a Cat 2 after 85kms, another Cat 3 after 130kms as they head towards the amazing little town of Salers. The climb up toward the Cote d'Anglards de Salers is nasty.. a heavy, dead road that averages 6.9% for 3.5kms, and once over the top and down the 4km descent they start on the final 30kms to the finish. 

First up is the Col de Neronne, but they are actually climbing for about 15kms before they start the Neronne proper. It's not a bad climb though, I quite liked it, I would think these guys will be doing it in the big ring for most of it. The Cat 2 Neronne though is a lot tougher, those 3.8kms average a nasty 9.1%, and again, it's a dead road that stings the whole way up. There are bonus seconds at the top, but I would think JV are probably happy for the break to take them. If not, we should see a good battle between Pogacar and Roglic again. 

There is a short plateau along the top as they run along the side of the mountain, the road we could see them on in 2004 across the valley. 4kms of flat, then 2kms of a descent, and then on to the Puy Mary. It starts gentle at first, averaging 5.15% for the first 3kms but then it suddenly gets much steeper. In fact, as you walk/drive/cycle along the road you can actually see the road suddenly tilt up at an angle in front of you and it stays at an angle for the next 2.5kms to the finish. 

The last 2.4kms average a back-breaking 11.5%, 11.9% for the final 1.4kms, with parts hitting 15% through bends and on a very steep section with about 1.5kms to go. It stays pretty steep all the way to the finish, only easing every so slightly at the top.  

Contenders and Favourites

This is a real beast of a stage, and looking at the prices, the bookies are leaning more towards a GC day with Alaphilippe a short-priced 11/2, and Roglic and Pogacar next at 8/1. I think it's about 70/30 that the break makes it over the GC men fighting it out, so there is still a chance for breakaway men to go all the way. This is a bit like Liege-Bastogne-Liege with a Mur de Huy finish that is 3 times as long as the Mur de Huy. 

The first big climb, the Cat 1 Col de Ceyssat, will set the tone for the day I think, if the GC men want to blow it up early, we might see Ineos, JV or UAE pushing hard here in order to thin out the peloton and dispose of a lot of helpers and dead weight. But it's a long day in the saddle to be starting that early, so in fact we might see the break get a nice lead by the time they get over the top of it. 

There are lots of points on offer today for the KOM, so expect a few of those who have designs on that prize to get stuck in to the break. Benoit Cosnefroy might try to go in the break, but I don't think he will be fighting out the finish, so even at 300/1 I think I'll leave him. Marc Hirschi though is now well in the running for the jersey, he sits just 5pts behind Cosnefroy and could take the jersey off him tomorrow if he takes the first Cat 1 and some of the smaller climbs too. Even if the GC men catch them before the final two climbs he might have done enough to wear the jersey tomorrow night. 

Favourite for the stage, and favourite still for the KOM is Julian Alaphilippe, and I guess the question is, which way will he try to win it? Go in the early break and hope they hold on, or try to stay with the GC men all day and then try to attack away in the last 2kms up the wall to the Puy Mary? It will be a tough battle to get in the break, but he's well capable, and it might be that if he thinks the composition of the break, and the way that the peloton are treating them is not conducive to it going all the way, he might just knock it back and save the legs. 

But if he does get in a strong break that looks like it's going to go all the way, then he has a big chance. There won't be many guys able to follow his kick up the final hill, but I worry that if he's with the GC men, when they start hammering it up the last climb that he won't be able to hang on when the likes of Roglic and Pogacar go toe to toe. 

Another break man I want to add is Warren Barguil, he said before today's stage that he thought that the next few stages suit him a lot better than today's stage and he kept his powder dry today. I think he's going well at the moment and if he can get in the break he could well go solo on the Neronne, or as it starts to get steep on the Puy Mary. 25/1 is ok. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is feeling good obviously, he got in the break today and this stage might suit him well. But Omar Fraile also looked keen today and looks to be going well too, and the finish might suit him more than LuLu. 66/1 is a fair price on him. Pierre Rolland looked really good today, he rode away from some good riders today and held it all the way to the finish. I wouldn't be surprised if he got in the break again tomorrow. 20/1 is short, but he's worth adding I think. 

Ag2R are sure to try to get a few men in the break too, Nans Peters might go again, he will like this power mans finish, you can just see him grinding away up the last 2kms to victory. 80/1 with Betway is worth a go, he's just 16/1 with Bet365. 

Dan Martin has been looking better and better, without actually pushing it too much, he's tried an attack or two, I guess to test out his back.. I think he will try his hand at a few of these upcoming stages, and while he's still a 66/1 shot for a stage finish that looks suited to a Dan Martin of old, I'll add him to the list I think.

FDJ are also sure to be sending lots of guys up the road, and not just from the break, but also if the break is reeled in, we might see some of the stronger FDJ men who were sitting in go on the attack on the Neronne or the bottom of the Puy Mary. Thibaut Pinot is very short at 14/1, I cannot back him at that price until we see how he's going.

David Gaudu is just 8/1 with Bet365, he is clearly fancied by some, but he's 14/1 with Betway and that might just about make him backable, as he's sure to be interested in this stage. Rudy Molard though also interests me - he's done well on the Mur de Huy over the last 3 years (8th in 2017) so might be one of the best finishers on this hill, and at 150/1, he offers far better value. 

And if it comes down to a GC battle, it's hard to look past the top guys again, we should see a shoot-out between Pogacar and Roglic again. I think Pogacar will attack hard with about 2kms to go and try to test Roglic on this steep finish. He might take 5-10 seconds off him, but if the break has been caught there's also 10 bonus seconds on offer for him to take. It will be interesting to see how Roglic responds to this steep finish, it could be the first time we see a chink in his armour. 

Egan Bernal hasn't actually lost any time to Roglic in stages, Roglic's 21" advantage is actually all from bonus seconds from the stage he won etc. Bernal will much prefer the upcoming stages up to the Grand Colombier and the Col de la Loze, but you can be sure that if he senses any opportunity he will go for it. Miguel Angel Lopez, Daniel Martinez, Mikel Landa and Adam Yates are sure to be right there too, but I worry about Guillaume Martin and Romain Bardet on this stage. 

And what about the Trek boys? I wouldn't be surprised to see Richie Porte have a dig early on the Col de Neronne, he's almost 2 minutes down, so if there's a bit of a stand-off between the GC men ahead of the Puy Mary, he might get a bit of a gap and might hold on. A bit of a wild stab at 150/1, but I think the Trek boys will be trying something. I think Mollema will also go well on this finish, he does well on steeper climbs, he's finished 6th twice in F-W.   

Julian Alaphilippe is too short at just 4/1, Marc Hirshi is a ridiculous price too at 8/1 with 365, he's 18/1 with Betway, but he had a hard day today, I can't see him going out and doing it all again on a much harder day. Pogacar and Roglic are obvious favourites, but it's hard to call one over the other, and they might just mark each other out of it. I think the break has a chance though, and I'm throwing some more darts today, maybe we'll have more luck than today. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Nans Peters at 80/1 with Betway

0.25pts win on Rudy Molard at 150/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Dan Martin at 66/1 with Bet365

0.25pts win on Richie Porte at 150/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Warren Barguil at 25/1 with various

0.25pts e/w on Omar Fraile at 66/1 with Bet365

0.4pts e/w on Pierre Rolland at 28/1 with Betway

Matchbets:

Gaudu over Pinot and Bernal over Landa - 2pts at 6/4

Yates over Carapaz and Lopez over Maz - 2pts at 13/8

Mollema to beat Uran - 2pts at 11/8