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Published on Wednesday, 09 September 2020 18:50

TDF 2020 Stage 12

Chauvigny - Sarran

September 9th, 218kms 

The longest stage of the 2020 Tour. In fact, unusually, it is the only stage this year that goes over 200kms. The stage passes through the home town of Raymond Poulidor, the man who finished runner up in the Tour 3 times, finsihed 3rd a further five times, but never won it.

This could be one for the breakaway, a lumpy, long stage that takes them in to the Correze. The intermediate sprint comes only 50kms in to the stage, so we could see a frantic start to the day, with the possibility that no one manages to get away until after they pass the intermediate sprint. 

From then on it is very lumpy though and the break still has plenty of time to build up a nice long lead, and it may be with the tough stage to come the following day to the Puy Mary the GC men just let them go. 

Stage 11 Review

A chaotic sprint in the end, and this time it was Ewan got the better of Bennett, by about the same margin Sam won by yesterday. I thought we had landed the Sagan top 3 bet until I saw the overhead footage, and knew immediately that he would be disqualified. Just our luck. A deserved DSQ though, it was very dangerous what he did, a lighter rider like Coquard or Ewan could have been sent sprawling with the force of the bump.

I'm giving up on Bol and Sunweb, nowhere to be seen again and he blew the matchbet double and the fourfold, all the others won. It was another big sprint from Pedersen to take 6th, but also a great sprint by Coquard to take 4th, I'd almost forgotten we're on him e/w for the Green, he's currently in 3rd place but Ewan is snapping at his heels.

You wonder though if Sagan will throw a hissy fit now and leave soon, what with the Giro coming up too for him? He might have his eye on a stage or two, but he won't win in Paris and if Bennett continues to pick up intermediates along the way he might just call it a day and rest up.  

The Route

A south-east run from Chauvigny to Sarenne on a course that gets progressively hillier as the stage progresses. It's a long stage at 218kms, and it gets harder and harder, culminating in a Cat 3 and Cat 2 climb inside the last 40kms, giving it a finish akin to Lombardia or LBL. 

The route climbs gently all day, adding 500m in altitude by the finish, with lots of lumps and bumps along the way. The intermediate sprint comes very early on in the stage, after just 50kms, so we could either see Peter Sagan and Bennett try to get in the break, or the sprinters' teams look to control the first hour of racing. Previously, that would have meant that if the break goes after the intermediate they wouldn't have much chance of building up a big lead, as there wasn't much of the stage left.

But being the longest stage of the race, there are still 168kms left to run this time. It should tempt out a strong break, because the sprinters teams know that with a Cat 2 climb coming 26kms from the finish their men won't be involved, and with a very tough stage coming the next day, the GC teams won't want to waste any energy pulling all day.. It could be a very long stage to watch..  

As they head south into the Haute Vienne they pass two Cat 4 climbs after 95 and 121kms and as they enter the Correze after 150kms the road gets a lot hillier. They start climbing properly after 160kms, and climb for the next 17kms, with a categorised Cat 3 of 4.8kms at 6% along the way. After a short run along a plateau and a short descent they start the main challenge of the day, the Cat 2 Suc au May. 

This is tough at the end of a long day in the saddle - 3.8kms at 7.7%, with some steep parts near the top. From the top there's just over 25kms left to go, of which 10kms are descending off the Suc au May. There are two more bumps to get over on the run in to the finish,  the first with 9kms to go, and then the last 5kms are almost entirely uphill.

The last 5kms average 2.6%, but that doesn't truly show how tough it is, as there are several flat sections in that 5kms, making the climbing parts probably about 3.5kms at about 4%. The last kilometer is tough too, averaging 3%, there should be a really good battle up this final 5kms and we could see some splits and time losses if riders lose concentration or get caught out behind someone who lets a wheel go.

Contenders and Favourites

I think there will be a lot of guys will fancy the break today, those who like a tough day in the saddle, an Ardennes-type day, but not too hard like the following day to the Puy Mary. As I said in the Route guide, the GC mens teams could well let a break of 10-12 guys go, the sprinters teams won't chase because they won't be involved in the finish, they only teams that might chase would be those that have a punchy uphill sprinter. 

So break men. A few I've been thinking about for a few days for this - Simon Geschke is one, he was not very happy with not getting in the break on Sunday on that mad start that saw no break get away for ages, tweeting afterwards "I invested a lot in the flat to get into the group... Nevertheless, I am relatively satisfied. As Peter Sagan aptly said last time: Fucking Cycling." This is much more his kind of stage though with rolling hills and not too much hard climbing. At 150/1 he's worth an e/w, he might be one of the first home from the break.

Benoit Cosnefroy is sure to fancy going in the break here too, there are two Cat 4s, a Cat 3 and a Cat 2 that he could nip out and take the points on to increase his lead in the KOM competition. And if he gets to the that final kilometres with the break fighting for the stage, he'd have to have a big chance on that final hill to the line, it's very similar to the stage he won in the Route d'Occitanie a month ago. The only thing that might scupper this pick would be if he decides to wait until the next day where there are more KOM points available, but this could be a bigger chance for him to take a stage win in my mind. At 80/1, let's add him to the pot. 

Tiesj Benoot is another who will like this lumpy, but not too hard stage, it's a bit like the stage he won solo in Paris Nice to Apt earlier in the year. It's also a little similar to that stage he finished 2nd in to Brioude last year. He has tried his hand in breaks but hasn't had much luck, this might suit him I think and 40/1 looks ok. You might get better later when Bet365 or Unibet open. 

The rider he finished 2nd behind in that stage to Brioude was Daryl Impey, and he's another who might fancy this stage too. Now with Yates falling a little out of contention in the GC, and not really looking like he'll be able to make up the ground on the leaders, M-S might switch back to their ambitions of stage hunting again. He'll find it tough on the Cat 2, but he's capable of getting over it with a break of similar guys, and he'd have a big chance on that uphill last 5kms, and the 3% uphill sprint finish would suit him perfectly, like that finish in stage 1 of the Dauphiné when he was just outsprinted by Wout Van Aert. He's just 33/1, but that's not a bad price if he can get in the break. 

A rider in a similar vein, Matteo Trentin might fancy trying to get in the break, he would be able to manage most of these climbs and the finish would suit him too. He still seems keen to fight for Green points, he's in a battle with our boy Coquard for 3rd place in the competition, so he might fancy trying to go to take a bunch of points at the finish. 12/1 is very short though, one to watch in-play maybe to see if he gets in the break. 

And what about Peter Sagan? Maybe he'll call Bennett's bluff and let him take the intermediate sprint, with designs on getting in the break as soon as it forms after the sprint? He'll find it tough on the Suc au May, but if he's in with a chance of taking the stage he might just hang in there, or close enough to catch them on the run in. 

Oliver Naesen is another powerhouse who might fancy this one. He has finished 2nd in MSR, and does like a tough day in the saddle, but he doesn't win often enough for me and I'm not sure the finish suits him either. It also looks like a Thomas de Gendt type day, and a TDG type move would be to roll through the sprint pretending to lead out Ewan and then go straight on the attack as everyone sits up.  

A rolling, long, hard stage like this with a few opportunities for him to just ride away from everyone else, it looks like a stage I finally want to have some money on TDG for. Again though, there's a slight danger he might be waiting until tomorrow's stage, but this one looks more winnable to me too. At 33/1 he's worth adding, he stretched the legs a little today working at the front, could have been a warm-up for tomorrow.

Omar Fraile for Astana looks a suitable candidate and he tried for us on Sunday but the break never had a chance. Maybe we give him another go. Movistar will probably want to get someone, or two, in the break in order to push for more time on the team prize, which they have suddenly shot in to the lead on, the question is, who?

Dario Cataldo won a stage in the Giro last year that had a Cat 2 and a Cat 3 not far from the finish, outsprinting Matteo Cattaneo in Como. He could be sent up the road. Carlos Verona has never won a race, so I'm not touching him, Marc Soler won in Andratx at the very start of the season on a very similar course, with an uphill finish and seems to be riding well. 

Max Schachmann could try to go in the break, he's been riding superbly well this year, winning Paris-Nice, finishing 3rd in Strade Bianche and 7th in Lombardia - this looks a good route and a good finish for him, he won an uphill sprint in Itzulia last year, beating the likes of Ulissi and Battaglin. 

What about the DQS boys? Julian Alaphilippe is sure to fancy it of course, he'll love that finish, but is way too short for me at just 11/4. But what about Bob Jungels? He's been looking very good and I have the feeling he's not been doing too much work in the last few days, I think he's saving his legs for a crack at a stage win. It's the kind of stage that you could just see him step on the gas on a drag somewhere and just ride away from everyone - he had a dig today in order to make Lotto-Soudal and the other sprint teams chase in the last 3kms, he's obviously feeling good.  

Toms Skujins was one I had in mind for this stage, but he crashed heavily Tuesday and is covered in bumps and scrapes.. Alexis Vuillermoz could fancy it, but I think he will wait for a more mountainous stage possibly. What about Ben Hermans? Do we give him another go? He's going ok, his 9th in Lombardia would suggest he'll like this stage. He didn't quite have the legs on stage 8, this might suit him better, as long as he's recovered from that. 

Greg Van Avermaet, Luis Leon Sanchez, Pelle Bilbao, Alexey Lutsenko.. lots and lots of guys who could make the break - and it's not just for today, these are the sorts of guys I'll be watching for every break stage from now on. 

But of course, there's always the possibility that the GC teams let the sprint teams do the pulling until the intermediate sprint, and then take up the pulling themselves as soon as that is done to keep the break on a leash so as to fight it out over the Suc au May and in to the finish. It's possible, but I really think they will be saving the legs for the next day in the mountains of the Cantal.

If it is a GC day, then watch out for Alaphilippe sitting in there and winning a sprint, or Pogacar and Roglic if it really came down to a GC finish. But I'm going to throw a lot of darts at the break tomorrow and hope that we get some of them in there. 

Recommendations:

0.5pt e/w on Daryl Impey at 66/1 with Bet365 (take the 50/1 with Unibet as 365 have halved his price to 33/1)

1pt win on Max Schachmann at 18/1 with Bet365 (he was cut from 28/1 to 18/1 while I was writing this, you might get better elsewhere or on Betfair) He's 20/1 with Unibet now. 

0.25pts e/w on Simon Geschke at 150/1 with Betway

0.25pts win on Bob Jungels at 66/1 with 365

0.4pts win on Tiesj Benoot at 40/1 with Betway

0.4pts win on Benoit Cosnefroy at 80/1 with 365

0.4pts win on TDG at 33/1 with Betway

0.25pts win on Marc Soler at 150/1 with 365

Matchbets

No matchbets, it will be a total lottery tomorrow.