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Published on Tuesday, 08 September 2020 20:10

TDF 2020 Stage 11

Châtelaillon-Plage - Poitiers

September 9th, 167.5kms 

They leave the coast and head inland, through the marshlands of Poitou. Poitiers was the scene of a great win for Arnaud Démare in 2014 when wearing the French champions jersey, but there won't be a repeat of that win with no Démare in the race. 

It does look set for another bunch sprint though and with the intermediate sprint coming just 60kms from the finish, there's a good chance too that the break will be kept very much under control in order for the Green Jersey contenders to fight it out for the points again.  

Stage 10 Review

Finally.. Finally Sam Bennett gets the monkey off his back and lands his stage win. Good to have another winner on the board and it was satisfying to see them deliver the win almost as I scripted it, with Morkov leading in to that final arc right, then slingshotting Bennett out, while at the same time pulling left and putting the slightest little squeeze on Ewan. That little squeeze, right, was enough to make Ewan pause a tiny, tiny little bit, and that could well be what got Sam home. It was a great leadout from DQS this time, taking over when it mattered most, and it was a powerful sprint from Sam to hold on from the fast-finishing Ewan. 

Speaking of great leadouts, no prizes for Sunweb who did all the work from a long way out, only to disappear as they hit the last kilometer. It was very annoying as Bol totally screwed up his sprint and finished a very disappointing 8th place, with even Greipel, Coquard and Viviani beating him. He really should have been finishing 3rd or 4th in that and would have landed us the two matchbets with him in it. 

Incredibly Mads Pedersen did his job as babysitter for Richie Porte, looking after him in the winds all day, and in fact he closed a gap with a massive pull at one point when Richie had got caught out in the splits, and he still had the strength to sprint to 5th place. Elia Viviani is improving, but still was a long way off the top two and it was great to see Andre Greipel making an appearance in a sprint, although it meant that Hofstetter led him out and so sacrificed his chances in the sprint, something I didn't expect, that was annoying too.  

Frustrating that we have a winner on the day but end up at a loss, hopefully some of you left the matchbets and just took Sam for the win! Bennett is in to 4/7 for Green now though, Sagan is 6/4, it does look like it's between the two of them now and it could all come down to the final sprint on the Champs Elysees, and I'd have Bennett outscoring Sagan that day too. 

Quite a chaotic day before that too, with Pogacar, Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Skujins, Bewley and several others getting caught up in crashes. Luckily for the GC men they were far enough out that the pace was knocked off and they got back in without too much trouble, but it was quite a stressful day all round. 

The Route

A north-east run for 168kms that sees themzig-zag their way past Niort along roads that start out very flat but get a little lumpier as the day goes on. They even take in a Cat 4 climb along the way, but as it's only 1.1kms long, they'll barely even notice it. Shortly after though is the Intermediate sprint after 108kms, and we could see another big battle for the points. 

From there it is ever-so-gently downhill all the way to the finish town of Poitiers, a finish town in the Tour for the 9th time. The road dips down a little with 10kms to go, then runs along a flat road for 7kms, but with 3kms to go it rises a little again as they enter the town. 

As they enter the town with 5kms to go they run along the banks of the Clain until they reach the bridge over it with 3.2kms to go. There's a sharp left turn to get over the bridge, they will need to be careful to not get caught out of position or get tangled up in a crash as they make their way around it and over the bridge.

Once over the bridge the road starts to rise up in front of them, getting steeper as they go around that bend to the right you can see in the picture to the right. It's short, but could be the decisive part of the stage. It climbs for about 900m, at an average of around 4%, the sprinters will be on the limit if the GC men and puncheurs really press hard at the front. 

With 1.5kms to go they turn sharp left at the roundabout 'du stade' and on to the wider dual-carriageway road, and after a slight kink left with 1200m to go, it's then a straight run to the line for what should be a very fast finish. 

The weather looks to be great again, 24 degrees and sunny, with a light 5-9mph headwind all day. It's going to be a slight cross/headwind in the final 1.2kms, coming at them from their right side, so timing will be crucial again, it's a long finishing straight and you don't want to be the one who goes too soon. 

Contenders and Favourites

Another sprint, another stage where we could see no break, or a very small one, as the green jersey points are just so valuable still and the battle is so close. DQS and Bora will be keen to keep a tight leash on the break, and you can be sure they'll shut it down if there are more than 2 or 3 guys going up the road. They'll keep it at 3-4 minutes tops maybe and reel them in before the intermediate. 

Then it will be a matter of controlling it for the next 60kms, but really the race will only come alive in the town of Poitiers, with a number of challenges that could derail the sprinters. It will be full gas as they enter the last 5kms, with the GC teams mixing it with the sprinters in order to get through that left-hand bend and over the bridge until they pass the 3km to go banner and the GC men can get out of the way. 

The drag up the hill will be important, more so about holding your position rather than the chances of getting dropped, most of the sprinters shouldn't have any problems with the gradient, it's quite a short hill and not too steep. As I said though, it's more about holding your position, and if the sprinters are under pressure they could find themselves, or their leadout men slipping back through the pack and will have to try to fight their way back to the front with just 1km to go, a kilometre that will be raced at about 55kmph. 

So who wins this time? Well Bennet will be buzzing now, the team will be buzzing now, and the immense pressure that was heaped upon his shoulders has been lifted. The finish looks perfect for a DQS power masterclass again, and I think Bennett should be fine on this finish, we know how good he is once it comes to the last km of a race at holding his position.

If they can hit the 2kms to go banner with 2-3 men at the front (Alaphilippe should be with them tomorrow, his late crash meant he had a bit of a rest in the run-in to today's finish) then even if Sam slips back 20-30 places, they still have 2kms from the top to bring him back near the front and he should be ok. They timed it perfectly today, with Morkov only taking it up with about 350m to go and releasing Sam with less than 250m to go and he just held on. They will need to do something similar tomorrow, because with the slight headwind on the finishline he'll need to go late.  

Caleb Ewan surfed the wheels well and got the right wheel to be on and for a while I thought 'here we go again, Ewan is going to mug him on the line'. But try as he might today, he just couldn't get there. He showed that he is still one of the fastest guys in the race, but that lack of team support that Sam had today was maybe what cost him, as I feared it might.

He just doesn't have a Morkov, so has to surf wheels and fight for Bennett's wheel. So he's always going to come from a bike length or two behind him and that's quite a jump to make to a Bennett who seems to be hitting top gear now. He will have to try the same tactic though, or maybe start for further back, but from a longer way out and try to catch Bennett out by flying past him with 200m to go and see if he hangs on.. But there's the danger that Sam just jumps on his wheel and then comes around him as he fades. There's also a slight danger that he gets a little caught out by that hill, him and his leadout men.. 

Cees Bol and Sunweb screwed that up today, they should really have done a lot better given the power they showed. They took it up with well over 2kms to go, almost as if they were racing for the finish line at the 1km banner.. Then Morkov just breezed past them as they died with 500m to go and Bol got swamped. Surely they'll learn from that and come a bit later tomorrow, they have a very powerful leadout, they need to employ it with less than 2kms to go and not before. Bol is still only going to be fighting for 3rd or 4th though I think. 

Peter Sagan got as close as we have seen him in a sprint so far in 3rd today, it was interesting watching the master follow the pupil all the way up the finishing straight as he tracked Bennett. He just didn't have the acceleration again but did show some good speed and power to be snapping at their heels crossing the line. He could well repeat that again tomorrow and the 9/4 for him to finish in the first 3 doesn't look too bad. 

Elia Viviani is getting closer, he was 4th today, and he looked disappointed with that. He didn't have the acceleration either when Bennett kicked, but stayed on well to finish just behind Sagan. He is still being under-rated by Betway who have him at 33/1, Bet365 only go 18/1, I'd have him somewhere around 20/1, so 33/1 looks worth having a nibble at. 

I am not sure Wout Van Aert will be sprinting again like today, he has too important a job now to look after Primoz. Mads Pedersen looks to be getting better and better, looking after Richie all day and then still getting up to sprint to 5th place, if he does sprint tomorrow though I can't see him finishing higher than 4th or 5th again. 

Andre Greipel was in the top 10 today, you wonder was it his turn to have a go today and he repays the favour to Hofstetter tomorrow? I don't want to take that risk, and he won't be breaking in to the top 3. Neither will Mezgec, Stuyven, Trentin or the rest.  

I think it's a massive chance for Bennett to put a big gap between him and Sagan for Green, he might even get involved in challenging for the intermediate sprint again tomorrow. The finish is tough, but I think he'll be floating a little bit lighter on the pedals after that win today. One danger though is that he goes back to thinking about the green jersey now he has his stage win, and tracks Sagan again to try to just beat him? But with the ear-bashing Sean Kelly gave him for not going for it in stage 5's finish still ringing in his ears, I think he will go for the win this time. No big stakes though, just in case.  

Recommendations

2pts win on Sam Bennett at 9/4 with various

0.3pts e/w on Elia Viviani at 33/1 with Betway

1pt on Sagan to finish in the top 3 at 9/4 with Unibet

Matchbets

Sagan to beat Viviani and Bol to beat Pedersen (Giving Bol another chance) - 2pts at 2.3/2 with Unibet

Coquard to beat Kristoff and Mezgec to beat Bonifazio - 1pt at 6/5 with Unibet

Put all four in a four-fold - 1pt at 15/4