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Published on Sunday, 06 September 2020 16:20

TDF 2020 Stage 10

île d'Oléron (Le Château-d'Oléron) - Île de Ré (Saint-Martin-de-Ré)

September 8th, 168.5kms 

You can almost see the finish line at Le Chateau d'Oleron from the start line on the Ile de Ré, it's just across the harbour. But it will be no plain sailing on this stage for the peloton, as the wind could howl and cause consternation once again! 

This stage has all the makings of a GC maker or breaker, and everyone should know that.. They know the wind will be up on the coast, they spend most of their day hugging the coastline, They know some teams will look to push it hard at the front and blow it up. They know that they will need to be near the front all day, and that goes for the GC men as well as the sprinters' teams, so there will be tension and pressure at the front all day.

We will see splits, when someone lets a wheel go, a change of direction, a sudden surge at the front. And it could be pot-luck as to where you are in the pack and if you're on the wrong side of it. Teams will need to have their full complement around their team leaders, we will probably see lots of teams riding in colour formation all day. 

The wind is going to be crucial, but luckily, it doesn't seem to be too strong. In the morning it is a north-easterly, of 8-10mph, coming at them from their left as they set out. Already, crossing the bridge to the mainland could see pressure being applied in order to split things straight away. 

Stage 9 Review

What a stage that was. An incredible battle to get in the break meant that no break was able to make it count for a long, long time, and as a result, the break didn't get a big enough gap to make it a break day. That was a shame as three of our men had made it in to a break, Martinez, Fraile and Gaudu - but they were never more than about a minute ahead of the peloton and were swept up with 40kms left to go.

Up front though Marc Hirschi was pulling off an incredible ride, just riding away from everyone and building up a four minute lead. The break were reeled in by JV who seemed to have learned a bit from yesterday and kept it together a bit longer. Kuss was the first to go though, and when Pogacar attacked for the first time with 20kms to go, Bennett and Dumoulin were finally shed. 

Pogacar really lit things up though from a GC point of view, his repeated attacks blew things up at the front and only Bernal, Roglic and Landa were able to go with him. Yates was immediately in trouble, Quintana, Bardet, Porte and Mollema fought and fought but couldn't catch them on the steeper slopes of the Marie Blanque. 

Hirschi fought for his life but was reeled in with 2kms to go, but he regathered himself and when it came to the sprint he did it very cleverly, giving himself a long slingshot attack from the back, and he nearly held on for what would have been a sensational victory. But Pogacar surged past him and took the stage from Roglic and drew himself just a little closer in the GC, but a lot closer in terms of one of Roglic's biggest threats. 

Quintana and Martin lost some time, but it was only 11" in the end, so no major disaster, but it is starting to look like Roglic, Bernal and Pogacar are the three strongest in the race. Having said that, there are 9 riders within 1'15" of the leader, and as we know, anything can happen in this race and it really is all to play for still. 

The matchbet double won, but Vuillermoz rode very well to finish 25th, although he was only four place ahead of Cherel in the end.. 50" separated them though, so it wasn't as close as it looks. Good to see Vuillermoz riding well though, he's one I have been watching and will be looking to back later in the race for the right opportunity. 

Dan Martin showed flashes of getting better, but again, he faded away just as quick, he still needs more time I think. Muhlberger finished 22nd, so I'll be still watching for a chance for him I think, but Bob Jungels impressed me with that ride in 26th, he's another we'll have to keep an eye out for an opportunity for later in the race. Small 2.7pt loss on the day, happy with the picks though, Gaudu, Fraile and Martinez all got in the break, and I was right in saying Pogacar was my favourite if it came to a GC finish.. 

The Route

They start on the Ile d'Oleron and KM 0 comes pretty quick, they are already being exposed to the wind coming at them from their left. If there are splits early it then turns in to a tailwind when they turn right on the mainland at Marennes and we could see frantic action. Then they turn left again and run along the coast for 17kms, where again it will be a cross-wind, until 47kms gone where they turn left at Royan and it becomes a headwind as they head north. 

The road zig-zags its way north, swinging past Marennes again after 80kms and from then on they spend most of the rest of the stage pretty much on the coast. As they head away from Marennes, the wind turns in to a headwind coming from the north-west in the afternoon, which will hamper the breaks chances. Just after La Rochelle there'another change in direction as they turn left at L'Houmeau with 18kms left to go and go across the bridge to the Ile de Ré, and the wind will turn in to a side cross-wind coming at them from the right, giving the stronger teams one last chance to maybe split things up. 

Then with 7.5kms to go they turn to head north-west again, and it's a pretty straight run to the last kilometer after that. There's a little left turn before the flamme rouge, then a slight right past a roundabout with 700m to go, then another slight right with 200m to go before a straight run to the line on a dead flat finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

I'm seeing rumours tonight that Caleb Ewan has abandoned today, so I'm going to hold off on doing my preview until I hear that confirmed.....  

So it looks like the abandonment was incorrect, that one app had reported him as DNF, but that was later corrected. 

So this could be a wild stage.. windy, nervy, chaotic.. Or it could be a damp squid, depending on whether the wind blows harder than forecast, because at the moment it's not that bad.. It's the gusts coming in off the sea though that can cause the problems, especially later in the day when legs are getting tired. 

You would think that DQS, no longer with a GC battle to fight with Alaphilippe and with their entire roster of Classics powerhouses should be able to control this stage and ensure Sammy B stays out of trouble, and deliver him with a chance to win the sprint. On the other hand, Lotto-Soudal have only 5 riders left with the abandonment of Stef Cras today. Ewan looked faster at times, Bennett faster on other times.. 

This finish looks very suited to a powerhouse leadout by DQS, but they haven't really nailed one yet. They really need to have everything fall in to place and for Bennett to get a slingshot off that final bend on the right hand-side of the road. If DQS can take the right side against the barriers they will be protected somewhat from the wind coming at them from their right, and if Morkov can lead out Bennett on the barrier and then pull offf to the left letting Sam through, then the other sprinters will have to come wide around Morkov and go out in to the headwind a bit more. That might just be enough to see Bennett hold on. 

Of course Sunweb will be right there too with their leadout for Bol, they dominated the last uphill sprint in stage 5 won by Van Aert, but Bol wasn't able to finish it off. And this flatter finish doesn't suit him as well, so I think it would be a big ask for him to land the win. He could well take 2nd or 3rd though, depending on whether one of Lotto or DQS screw it up. 

Wout Van Aert - he's a phenomenon that blows the shit out of the peloton and then wins a wind-blasted stage the next day, outsprinting Bryan Coquard and the other sprinters, then goes out and rips up the peloton again on the slopes of the Port de Bales. And now he's only 4/1 to win a sprint again. I'm guessing that price is because they think he will be there at the finish, and maybe some of the sprinters won't be. Ewan will need two men just to keep him out of trouble all day, so there will only be 1-2 guys left for him at the finish.. if any of his men have a bad day or he momentarily is out of position and it splits, they will have to bury themselves to get him back in. 

That would be something that JV might gang up with Ineos and DQS and try to do though - Ineos have shown already they are willing to try to catch other GC men out in the cross-winds, Rowe and Kwiatkowski are masters at it. But 4/1 though is a short price for that risk, although you wouldn't put it past Wout winning again.

I just feel that the strain of the last few days are surely going to have an effect on him at some point and it might just dull his sprint. Also, is the team really going to go all in for Roglic now? With the challenge coming from Pogacar and Bernal, they might just knuckle down now and focus 100% on him from now on. 

Bryan Coquard showed that day against Wout that even when there are no sprinters of note left he can only finish 3rd, he's unlikely to be in the top 3 here, although he copes well with the wind. Giacomo Nizzolo has gone home, so that only really leaves Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff and Elia Viviani from the elite sprinter-types and Sagan has shown he just hasn't the speed at the moment, whereas Kristoff will be looking after Pogacar I think and Viviani is just not good enough based on what we've seen already. 

Mads Pedersen is just 12/1 - but I think he will only be featuring if there are some sprinters out of the picture, so it will be up to Trek to help make it hard too. Matteo Trentin continues to hunt points and he might be in the fight too at the finish, I think he should be fine in cross-winds, he looks a big price at 50/1, as is Hugo Hofstetter, he has been close, taking a 4th and a 7th place. If Niccolo Bonifazio can finally get his shit together, the 80/1 on him will look massive, he should be top 10, but let's see how he goes. I'm taking a shot on him beating a Kristoff who might be on team duties.

It's hard to really have much faith in Bennett given what we've seen so far, but he has been blitzing the intermediate sprints and I think it's now or never for them, and him. DQS cannot screw up again, surely, Bennett can't screw up again, surely? I worry about Ewan's lack of team support and the fact he has just about made it home on some of the mountain stages.. This could finally be Bennett's chance. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sam Bennette at 11/4 with Betway

0.5pts on Hugo Hofstetter to finish in the top 3 at 12/1 with Unibet

Matchbets

Bonifazio to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 11/10

Bol to beat Pedersen and Trentin to beat Venturini - 2pts at 5/4 with Betway

Hofstetter to beat Mezgec - 2pts at 6/5 with Bet365

Update, 10:00am - I'm hearing that Mads is on 'Richie duty' today, which might suggest that he will not be sprinting at the end here, but wasting energy all day keeping Richie out of trouble. So I'm going in again on Bol to beat Pedersen, but also adding Stuyven to beat EBH in a double at 7/5 with Unibet. If Mads is on Richie duty, Stuyven might be let sprint, and we saw how close he came the last time he was left sprint. 2pts on that.