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- Published on Tuesday, 25 August 2020 11:50
Who'll win the Green Jersey?
Could this be the year we finally see Peter Sagan dethroned as king of the Green Jerseys? After winning a record 7th Green last year, Sagan is back for another go and is once again the hot favourite at a skinny-looking 8/11.
Although Sagan won it again quite comfortably last year, his gap was not as comfortable as in previous years, beating Ewan by just 68pts in the end. The previous year, Sagan actually won by more points than 2nd placed Kristoff and 3rd placed Démare combined, amassing a huge 477pts,
There aren't many sprint stages at all in this year's Tour, they may be classifying seven stages as being sprint stages (awarding 50pts to the winner), there are about three of those which might not see very many sprinters involved in the finish at all. Stage 1 being an example, it's a tough start to the Tour with lots of hills north of Nice, if the sprinters trains can't pull it back together in the run in there could be a sprinter-less sprint in Nice.. Sagan will be there though, you can almost guarantee that.
The points classification is the third oldest of the currently awarded jersey classifications. It was first introduced in the 1953 Tour de France, the first jersey was won by Fritz Schär. The classification was added to attract more participation from the sprinters, as well as to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Tour. Although the best climber of the TDF was first recognised in 1933, the distinctive polka dot jersey was not introduced until 1975 when Lucien Van Impe took it home.
There was a big change four years ago to the way the points were awarded in the Green Jersey competition in what looked like an attempt to make it a more open competition for the other sprinters, and not just Peter Sagan's for the taking again. “We want to give more of a bonus for those who win,” Christian Prudhomme said in 2015 about the change to the points structure, referring to the fact that Sagan strolled to victory in the jersey in 2014 without winning a single stage.
That didn't stop him that year, and in fact he racked up three victories along the way as well, just in case, as he did in 2018 and took just one stage win last year. They changed it slightly again for 2016, changing the classification of stages and the number of riders who will get points, reducing the flat stages to 15 points winners from 20, and they are sticking to that this year again.
They award 50 points to the winner of the flat stages and 30 to the runner-up meaning, the difference from 1st to 2nd is 20 points, compared to just 10 under the old rules. Points for the pure sprint stages are now awarded as follows - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, so it's most definitely weighted towards the stage winners.
Stage Categories
The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage classification, and again this year they are awarding the same intermediate points for all stages.
For the stages they are calling 'Without particular difficulty' ("sans difficulté particulière"), or in other words, the Flat stages they are awarding points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Flat stage are stages 1,5,7,10,11,19,21.
For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first fifteen riders: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey.
For stages they are calling 'Hilly' ("parcours accidenté"): there are points for the first 15 places: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. The Hilly stage are stages 2,3,6,12,14,16.
For stages they are calling 'Big Difficulty' ("grande difficulté") or Mountain Stages and the individual TT: there are points for the first 15 home: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. These stages are 8,9,13,15,17,18.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan - 8/11 favourite
4/7 two years ago, 4/9 last year, 8/11 this year..
Well, he was thrown out that year, showing that even at 4/7, there's no such thing as a sure thing. Last year he was 1/2, but rewarded his backers, it was more or less all over about 6 stages in.
He was a no-bet for me in 2018 at that price as I was worried some sprinters would put it up to him, and in fact, Gaviria was only 31pts behind him at the end of stage 7. He didn't have a great season by his standards that year, then he came to the Tour and won 3 stages and destroyed his rivals in the points competition.
He had a very poor season by his standards last year too, even worse than last year, with no success at all in the Classics, and no win until the 12th May against limited opposition at the TOC, yet he still came here and cantered to a facile win in the competition, taking a stage win along the way too.
This year has been a crazy one for everybody of course, but Sagan has not shown anything of his old self so far this season, with no win at all to his name heading in to the Tour. He has plenty top tens to his name of course, but since the resumption, he was way off the pace in Strade Bianche, and wasn't able to go with the Alaphilippe/Wout attack on the Poggio, finishing 4th though in the end.
Again, he struggled at the Dauphiné, finishing over 7 minutes down on the 'sprinters' stage 1, and abandoned on stage 5. He does look at his most vulnerable in this competition since he started his reign 8 years ago, he just doesn't look himself these days. Is he bored of the sport? Has he lost interest in training over lockdown?
Apparently not, and he still retains the hunger we're hearing to go and win it. He will be involved in lots and lots of the sprint finishes you'd think, especially the lumpy ones, and will get in breaks and take lots of intermediate points too. We backed him last year in a double with Bernal for the white at 11/10, which landed, but even at a tempting 8/11, I'm not sure I can bring myself to back him this year.
Sam Bennett - 4/1 Best Price
Bennett came to the Tour with high hopes in 2016, but came crashing down to earth on the very first stage after colliding with a barrier in the very first sprint. Since then he's been denied the opportunity to mix it with the best at the Tour due to Sagan being Bora's weapon of choice (and rightly so).
He comes here now though with the formidable DQS team and with seemingly very good legs. After a 'jour sans' in Wallonie he bounced back the next day with a superb performance to hang on over all the hills that were scripted to be too much for him to handle. And he cruised past the in-form Arnaud Démare in the sprint like he had pressed a turbo-boost button.
He has been up and down all season, in fact he can be very inconsistent all year, but all roads have led to the Tour. The team seems to have targeted tough, hilly races like Burgos and Wallonie to prepare him for stage wins and a tilt at the green in this race, and have sent a powerhouse team to look after him and try to get him to the finish of as many stages as possible in with a shout of sprinting to victory.
He almost held on in MSR, but found it just beyond his capabilities and he said he just had an off day, but I think he is one of the most likely of the sprinters to survive on a number of the lumpier flat stages and could take a lot of points from the 4-7 sprint stages available. We could even see DQS try to get him in some of the breaks with a team-mate or two on the mountain stages in order to hoover up intermediate sprint points.
Stages 4, 6 and 8 for example could be three stages where he and maybe Stybar, Asgreen, Jungels or Alaphilippe could try to get up the road in order for him to take the points and then coast to the finish. Stages 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18 are eight more stages where the intermediate points are very likely to be taken by someone like Bennett, either getting in the break to take the early intermediate sprint, the team working to keep the race together until the sprint point has passed early in the stage, or reel in the break in time for when the intermediate comes late in the stage.
After being denied the chance to take part in the Tour for three years because of Sagan, I think it would give him great satisfaction to finally usurp one of his heroes and follow in the footsteps of another of his heroes, fellow Carrick-on-Suir man, Sean Kelly. And I think he is capable of doing it.
Wout Van Aert - 7/1 Best Price
One of the stars of the season so far, particularly since the resumption after the Covid hiatus, Van Aert had managed to resign us to almost thinking Mathieu who? when thinking about the best Belgian rider right now.. He has been sensational in the last month, and has shown a remarkable recovery from a career-threatening injury in last year's Tour.
Is he capable of winning the Green Jersey? Absolutely. In fact, he could well do a Sagan and go on to win it for many more years to come. But the big question of course is, will he be let go and try and win it? Well the jury is out on that one, and that's why he is as big as 7/1. He can sprint, he can get over the hills other sprinters can't, he can get in breaks and he can take intermediate points, just like Sagan.
But he is coming here with a job to do - and we know how professional and focused JV are right now in their goal of winning the Tour. His job is to protect on the flat stages and keep the leaders out of danger, pull on the flatter parts in the mountain stages, and pull for as long as possible once the road gets steeper. Apparently they are even getting him a lighter bike to help him with his mountain train duties.
No doubt he will take any opportunities that come his way, and he might be allowed sprint in the first few days to see if they can take the Yellow Jersey (I'm hearing that is in the plan..), but this Tour gets serious very fast, with two tricky stages to open the race, a summit finish already on stage 4 and another on stage 6 and a trip to the Pyrenees on stage 8. By that point, if he has been looking after the team leaders, he might be well down in the points standing. And I think that's what's going to happen and I won't be backing him at that price. Maybe one to review a week in to the race.
Caleb Ewan - 9/1 Best Price
The little Aussie had a great Tour last year in the end, taking 3 stage wins, including the sprinters daddy, on the Champs Elysees. It took him a while to get going though in a Tour where the sprint prizes were passed around amongst a lot of riders.
Strong team with him, but he'd be far weaker than Sam Bennett when it comes to surviving the lumpier stages, and is also a lot less likely to make it in to breaks I think. He got blown away in Paris Nice, got shelled in MSR and most stages of Wallonie and was outsprinted by Arnaud Démare in Milano-Torino.
But Cabaloon, as Sean Kelly likes to call him, has won four races this year, from 24 race days, not too shabby a return at all. One of those was his super-impressive sprint up the Hatta Dam and another two were in the TDU where he won the uphill sprint in Stirling and beat Sam Bennett in stage 4. He also beat Bennett in stage 1 of Wallonie, but then struggled as soon as it got hilly.
If you'd have backed him e/w last year at the 16/1 he was available at before the race, you'd have been very anxious a week in to the race when he languished down in 10th place. In fact, he languished in 5th place for most of the race, right up until the last stage, when the 50pts he got for winning in Paris propelled him in to 2nd place and landed the e/w money. It's a lot tighter this year in terms of an e/w price at just 9/1, and to be honest, I just don't think he is consistent enough overall and I think Bennett will outscore him, even if it is for 2nd or 3rd place in the competition.
Bryan Coquard - 25/1 Best Price
Le Coq is an interesting little rider.. Lots and lots of decent results, albeit a lot in lower-grade races, Coquard has many, many places to his name, including coming as close as you possibly can to winning a stage of the Tour, when he was denied by millimetres by Marcel Kittel in stage 4 in Limoges in 2016. He hasn't ridden the Tour since, in fact, he's not done another Grand Tour since then, but comes here in good form.
He took an excellent stage win on a lumpy stage of the Route d'Occitanie ahead of Viviani and Colbrelli, finished 2nd the next day and held the yellow for 2 days. He pulled off a fantastic performance though in the French road race championships last weekend, being the only rider capable of staying with Démare when he went in pursuit of Alaphilippe. He wasn't good enough to beat Démare in the end, but he showed that day that his legs are good.
With the limited number of sprinters in this year's race, we might well see him involved in a lot of the sprint finishes. He doesn't mind a lumpy 'flat' stage either and he has placed 2nd on the Champs Elysees before. He has been on a personal training camp in the Alps, which suggests to me the team are really thinking about getting him to Paris and maybe getting over some of the tougher stages that might see off the other sprinters. He certainly showed good legs on the hill in the French nationals to go after Alaphilippe with Démare. He is also the kind of rider that will get in breaks and nick intermediate points, so at 25/1, if you're looking for an outside bet, he's not a bad shout.
Sonny Colbrelli - 14/1 Best Price
He's only raced 18 days this year, with pretty mixed results it has to be said either side of the lockdown. Disappointed in KBK and OHN, he didn't race very much before the break, but returned with a 3rd place in the first stage of Occitanie, followed by an impressive uphill sprint victory the next day ahead of Coquard.
He was a disappointing 63rd in MSR when fancied to go well, and just trained for the 5 days of the Dauphiné like a lot of other riders. He came close to taking the Italian nationals on Sunday though, but was outmuscled by Cavagna's power sprint and out-sprinted by Nizzolo's finishing speed.
He finished 4th in the points competition last year, being squeezed out of the podium spots by Caleb Ewan on the last day, but he never finished higher than 4th in a stage. The year before he landed two 2nd places, but finished 9th in the points competition, and in 2017 he finished no higher than 6th and finished 5th in the points competition. And there's his problem, and why he isn't a good bet for this, even each-way. He doesn't get enough high-placed finishes.. too many others will score more regularly than him, and on the mountainous stages, when there are early sprint points, he might be kept back to help Landa and may not get in many breaks.
Giacomo Nizzolo - 16/1 Best Price
Going just on his last result, you'd have to say he has a chance of pulling off a few decent results in this Tour. A stylish winner of the Italian Nationals, he bided his time and pounced with superb speed right at the death to deny Cavagna. Ok, there wasn't great sprinting opposition against him, but he showed a great turn of foot to close down a considerable gap to Cavagna inside the last 100m.
He's raced a lot this year compared to most (32 days compared to Colbrelli's 18) and has a stage win in the TDU and Paris Nice to his name, as well as a bunch of top 10 placings, including an impressive 5th place in MSR (3rd in the bunch gallop). He started well in the Tour last year with a 4th place in stage 1, but crashes affected the rest of his race, including calling a halt to his progress on stage 12 after another crash on stage 11.
He does seem to have his fair share of bad luck in races, I've lost count of the number of times I've backed him or had him in a matchbet, only to see him standing at the side of the road in the closing stages. It's a raggle-taggle squad that NTT have brought here this year, with aging stars Pozzovivo, Kreuziger, EBH and Michael Valgren all a shadow of their former selves, and it might be that NTT might put all their eggs in one basket of trying to deliver just one stage win for the team.
I'd be tempted to back him based on the fact he's won the points competition in the Giro twice before, but I think he's too inconsistent and has too much bad luck to be able to rack up enough points to take a top 3.
Others
Julian Alaphilippe is bound to attract some money at a decent-looking price of 40/1 or so, particularly as you would expect him to win a stage or two. Especially seeing as he and the team are denouncing all talk of a GC push, instead insisting that he is here to ride a free and aggressive race in search of stage wins. It is likely we'll see him pushing it at the front on the lumpier days, and he'll fancy some of the uphill finishes, but you'd think that for a lot of the other days he'll be hiding away, resting and recovering.
Add in the fact that he might well be having a strong push at the KOM jersey competition (he's favourite to win it after all) and it might be best to leave him for the green.
Elia Viviani looks a massive price at 20/1, but he will probably be beaten by Ewan and Bennett in the flat sprints and will be long dropped on the hillier sprint stages. And he rides for Cofidis now, they never win..
If Primoz Roglic goes on beast mode and wins stage after stage, he might well run the points leader close, but I think a lot of the mountain stages will see points snaffled up by the breaks and if he's in a commanding position he might just be content to save his legs and finish the race off on he final TT up LPDBF.
Luca Mezgec, Cees Bol, Matteo Trentin, Greg Van Avermaet, Daryl Impey - they are all capable of some decent placings and maybe a stage win from a break, but 'some' decent placings is the problem, they won't get enough decent placings.
So it looks like a shoot-out between Sagan and his old team-mate Sam Bennett, and it could be very close. I think Sam will score a lot of points on the sprint stages and the team will work hard to get him a lot of points out on the road too, and it might be just enough to land the spoils. Wout could end up with a top 3 just by virtue of the fact that he is so strong right now, he might be able to do a job on some stages and still get up to fight it out for the stage win.
Bryan Coquard might offer a little bit of fun at a bigger price, but like Nizzolo, it might be that their entire focus is in landing just one stage win. But if he can keep trying and gets close to the win, he might just rack up enough points to land the e/w money.
Update: 26/8, 16:00 - After that impressive ride by Nizzolo again today to take the Euros Championships, I am adding him at 17/1 each-way with Paddy Power/Betfair, he does look in great form and can survive some of the lumpier days better than the pure sprinters.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Sam Bennett at 4/1
0.5pts e/w on Bryan Coquard at 25/1 with PP/Betfair
0.5pts e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 17/1 with PP/Betfair
Points Competition Matchbets
Bonifazio to beat Greipel and Impey to beat EBH - 2pts on the double at 1.04/1 with 365
Nizzolo to beat Colbrelli and Sagan to beat Van Aert - 2pts at 1.15/1 with 365