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Published on Friday, 08 March 2019 20:13

Strade Bianche 2019 

Siena to Siena

Sat 9th March 2019, 184kms

The 13th running of the Strade Bianche takes place Saturday, and although it is only in its infancy compared to the other Classics, it's firmly establishing itself as a riders and fans favourite with some epic races over the last few years.

It's a similar route to previous years, but with 1.1km more dirt roads, making it a total of 63kms of the 'Strade Bianche' this year and over 10kms more than two years ago.  What an incredible race we were treated to last year in wet and sloppy conditions, as Tiesj Benoot well and truly cemented his standing as a rising star of the future with a stunning solo win, his first win as a professional.

The race was chaotic right from the start more or less, as a split formed in the peloton on only the second sector, with just 70 riders in the front part of the race. But it was more than just Benoot's win that it will be remembered as one of the best editions of the race, with a podium that was completed by stage-race climber Romain Bardet and 23-year old Wout Van Aert.

Bardet was super-impressive all day, bridging across solo to the strong leading group on sector 8, and not only caught them, but attacked away from them as soon as he got to the front. He was soon joined by Van Aert and it looked for a while like they might make it on their own.

But Benoot came across to them like a train to make it a very strong trio up front with 50kms still to go, and everyone else looking spent behind, but not only that, they all looked at each other to do the work. The trio though worked well together and pulled out a good advantage, and when Benoot attacked on the final sector with 12kms to go, the other two had no response (below).

Alejandro Valverde put in an impressive ride in 4th, with Visconti and Rob Power just after him, but it was 1'42" until the pre-race favourite Stybar came home, as he, Sagan and Kwiatkowski, the top favourites for the race all marked each other out of contention. 

This race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche. Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011, Moreno Moser in 2013, Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014 (and 2017), Zdenek Stybar in 2015 and Fabian Cancellara in 2016.. 

The opening week in the Flanders heartland turned in to the DQS show, as first Zdenek Stybar powered away from the late break to take OHN, and that was followed on Sunday by a super-impressive solo win by Bob Jungels. Again, it was great tactics, good timing and sheer brute strength that brought the win. 

But to my mind, Tuesday's Le Samyn was a more enjoyable race to watch, it was a really exciting last 30kms or so as the race broke up, came back together, and broke up again as Roompot and Wanty took it to DQS and Direct Energie. In the end, it was second favourite Florian Sénéchal who came out on top, finally taking his first professional win. And I'm glad I was on him at 11/2 (tipped him on Twitter Tuesday morning) as I have backed him so many times in the past, I was due a win as much as he was!

The Route

A twisty and undulating course, with no long climbs but with punchy hills, most significantly on the eleven unpaved parts. There are roughly 63km of gravel roads, appearing in 11 sectors (eight of those shared with the Women's Elite course). Starting from Siena, the first undulating kilometres are on tarmac before reaching the 2.1km gravel Sector 1 at km 15, which is perfectly straight and slightly uphill.

Shortly after they face Sector 2 (4.7km), the course’s first real challenge with a short descent and a long climb with parts at over 10%. The course will then go through Radi, where Sector 3 starts (4.4km) and immediately after Sector 4, one of its classic gravel sectors (5.5km, featured in the course since its first edition) with no significant gradient and leading to Buonconvento. The Montalcino is next, (4km at 5%) and after Torrenieri the riders will face Sectors 5 (11.9km) and 6 (8km) with only 1km of tarmac in between them. Both are hard, hilly, very punchy and with many bends, climbs and descents.

Soon the route reaches Monteroni d’Arbia, which marks the beginning of Sector 7 of San Martino in Grania (9.5km) in the middle of the Crete Senesi. It's a long sector with continuous up and downs in the first part, ending up with a twisting climb before meeting the tarmac again. In Ponte del Garbo (Asciano) gravel Sector 8 begins. At 11.5km it's the hardest of the race, mostly uphill and characterised by tough hills, the most important being those close to Monte Sante Marie with some very steep gradients.

The penultimate sector is one of the most crucial, the scene of where the significant moves have happened for the last three years, the Colle Pinzuto, which features gradients of up to 15%. After a few kilometres the riders will face the last sector (Sector 11, 1.1km) which features a demanding descent followed by a very punchy climb (max 18%) that ends up at the Tolfe. From here only 12km separate the riders from the finish in Piazza del Campo, Siena.

It's a really tricky finale though which you will need to have saved some energy for, it starts rising uphill as they enter the town with 1km to go, gradually getting steeper until they are in the narrow, house-lined Via San Catarina which hits gradients of 15%. It was here that Van Avermaet made his move in 2015 and Valverde went pop, and where he dropped Wellens and Stybar last year.

Then a sharp right turn and it eases off a little, a left turn with 300m to go and they arc slightly uphill along the Via Bianchi del Sotto before a sharp right with 150m to go in to the Piazza and the finish line. It's a finish that can see podium chances disappear in the space of 300m, as we saw with the finish of the last three years.. 

Weather

It looked like we could get another wet and sloppy Strade earlier in the week, as it is forecast to rain all day Friday and for some of Saturday.. But as the week has gone on, that rain seems to have disappeared.. So it's going to be pretty dry and mild by the looks of the forecast now, 10-15° during the day. After a calm morning the wind is forecast to whip up a bit in the afternoon, but still only rising to around 11-13mph, coming at them from the west. That does mean though that it will be a head-wind for most of the last 40kms or so as they head west towards Siena. 

Contenders and Favourites

I suppose we have to start with DQS, such is their collective strength at the moment. Not only do they have former winner Zdenek Stybar in their lineup, they also have Julian Alaphilippe, who is riding it for the first time (missed last year's due to injury) and is really keen and excited to tackle the course.

Stybar is of course tailor-made for this course being an ex-cyclocross champion and he showed in recent years that he has all the atributes to win the race - he can climb, he can power it on the flats, he can descend and he's got a hell of a punch at the finish.. He has finished 1st, 2nd, 4th and 7th in the last four years, who could bet against him being up there again Saturday? 

And even more so now having seen what kind of legs he has after that barn-storming finish to OHN. He was prominent all day, he looked strong on the Muur following Van Avermaet and when it came to the game of cat and mouse at the finish, he timed it perfectly.. letting GVA chase down Wellens and then counter-attacking when they were all on the limit. In a matter of pedal strokes the race was decided, as those behind him looked at each other instead of going after him. 

Alaphilippe has been saying this week how much he's looking forward to his first SB, a race that looks tailor-made for him too with tricky short climbs, challenging road surfaces and dodgy descents. He says that "I am happy with my start to the season with 3 wins in San Juan. My condition is good and I can't wait to prove it in Italy. The morale and motivation is back!"

Backed up by a very strong looking team, they should be the trouble starters, punkin instigators, the firestarters, twisted firestarters... (RIP Keith..) Yves Lampaert and Peter Serry looked strong in Belgium, and Eros Capecchi, Petr Vakoc and Dries Devenyns will be key support in their attempt to make it four big wins out of four.  

Tiesj Benoot comes here to try to defend his title, but with the possibility that the knee wound he suffered in his fall in OHN might hamper him, it is hard to have 100% confidence in him repeating last year's monster ride. Lotto are saying that he is healing up well and there is no infection, but also that they are not going to risk the rest of his season if he's not 100%. 

But if he is ok, then he has to be a big shout at 18/1 to take his second win in a row, especially with no Sagan, Valverde or Bardet here. the three times he's done this race he's finished 1st, 8th and 8th, and he seems to love the challenge of the race and has the grit required to get to the front and make others suffer. 

He's got a very strong team-mate for sure in Tim Wellens, a rider who also looks to be perfectly suited to this race and its conditions. He doesn't mind the rain, he his very strong on short, punchy climbs and can finish strongly on that final hill.

The only time he did the race, in 2017, he made the final selection with Kwiat, GVA and Stybar, but had no answer to Kwiat's attack and was outsprinted in the town by GVA. He was also outsprinted by GVA on Saturday in OHN, but he fared far better than Benoot, making it to the final selection and taking a podium spot with 3rd. He'll definitely be one to watch, I can see him and GVA locking horns again at the front. He's less than half Benoot's price at just 8/1, but he looks a pretty solid each-way bet for a podium.

The biggest danger to them all though of course is Greg Van Avermaet. He didn't get the result he wanted last Saturday, but came very bloody close, winning the sprint for 2nd behind Stybar. He was a key instigator in the outcome of the race too, pushing hard in several parts to blow things apart and form the race-winning break, but he had no answer when Stybar went, he couldn't cover every move. 

His results here are pretty impressive to say the least, with his 34th last year a bit of an anomaly, as prior to that he had finished 2nd, 6th, 2nd, 6th, 5th, 9th and 13th. A combination of his suberb power, control on the dirt roads and aggressive racing style gets him in the right positions to challenge for the wins here, with only Kwiatkowski escaping denying him the win in 2015 and Stybar's power at the finish denying him in 2017. 

And he is in good form too, not only his second in OHN showed that, but he also took a fine stage win in Valenciana and a 2nd and 3rd in stages in Oman. He's not got a great team again here, but as I said before OHN, he almost doesn't need one as he can fight for himself.. But I bet he wished he had a team-mate with him last Saturday in the closing stages to chase after Stybar and Wellens..

I can see him being without teammates again in the closing stages, he'll just have to make sure that he has thinned out the competition enough to be able to fight for the win this time. He seems to be climbing well, it's what could win it for him on that lung-bursting hill up to the square in Siena.

And he sounds confident.. In an interview this week he said "I can't wait for Strade Bianche, as it's one of the most beautiful races of the season.. My performance in OHN gave me confidence and proved that my form is good. I climbed on the podium twice, but never on the top step. It's one of my big goals this season" 

Astana though hold a lot of aces for this race too, it's quite the squad they bring here. Alexey Lutsenko continued his fine run of form with a powerful performance in OHN, driving the splits at the front with GVA and finishing a very respectable 4th, GVA and Wellens denying his e/w backers.

His best result here in 3 attempts was last year in only 26th place, but his form this year and last are on a different level. He DNF'ed KBK on Sunday, but that was understandable given the effort he made on Saturday. It might be that the course doesn't suit him as much as others though, so I'm reluctant to back him at just 14/1.

His teammate Jacob Fuglsang is another to watch. Winner of the RDS, 6th overall in Murcia (won KOM), he's had a few weeks off and is now ready to hit this hard. His only participation in the race to date was in 2016, when he finished 11th, 52" behind Cancellara and Stybar, so he knows what it take to go well here. 

But they also have a few dark horses who could go well here - Davide Ballerini is going well at the moment, he rode well in OHN and KBK and also too a fine 3rd place in a sprint stage in Oman. He might struggle on the final climb though. Dario Cataldo, Omar Fraile and Dmitry Gruzdev are also potentially capable of big rides, but haven't really shown it in the past here. 

And what about Wout Van Aert's chances of going as well or better than his 3rd last year? You would have to think they are pretty high given the absence of the likes of Valverde and Bardet.. He was awesome last year, demonstrating all his cyclocross skills, as well as his strength and racing nous.

His lack of experience in big races like this told at the finish though when he cramped up and fell off on the final hill in to Siena (left), but he had enough of a lead over Valverde to remount and make it to the finish ahead of him to take the 3rd spot. 

He's a year older, stronger and wiser, and although he doesn't have a great team here with him, he does have Antwan Tolhoek and Floris de Tier to look after him. He is sure to be in the mix, he will just mark and follow GVA, but if it comes down to a small group with him, GVA and Wellens, it will be hard to beat one of them, let alone two of them up that hill. 

Team Sky have a pretty strong-looking team here for it, with Geraint Thomas making his debut in the race. He plodded around in Valenciana last month for his first races of the season, finishing 13th in the TT and 44th overall, no Valverde-like fast start to the season for him. He finished over 4 minutes down on Yates on Alcala-Alcocebre, if he climbs like that on Saturday, he won't be near a podium step. 

But you can never rule Thomas and Sky out, and there are a few other guys on the team who could also play a big part in the outcome of this race. Gianni Moscon is one to keep an eye on for sure, he was on a steep progression curve last year with some excellent performances, will he be able to carry on where he left off last year? 

He has finished 18th, 17th and 14th in the last three years, getting closer, but still not good enough to go with the race-winning moves, the climbs towards the finish just look a bit too hard for him. Salvatore Puccio generally goes well here, with an 11th, 13th and 22nd to his name over the years. He was also going well in the break in 2016 when he suffered a badly-timed mechanical on the Santa Maria, and that was his race done. (right) 

It's been a pretty non-descript start to the season though for him, and you'd think that he'll be riding in support of Thomas or maybe even Owain Doull or Diego Rosa. Doull was flying last weekend, being prominent for most of the race in OHN, and then taking his best every pro result with 2nd in KBK.

He was part of a small group that went off the front in the last few kilometres and he just managed to hold off the sprinters to take the sprint for 2nd. His record here isn't great though with a DNF and 50th place in his two starts. Rosa has gone ok here in the past too (5th in 2015), but he's not really shown in the last 2 seasons that he has what it takes to win here.   

Vincenzo Nibali rides it again for Bahrian Merida, and although he has been prominent in the latter third of this race, generally, when push came to shove, he didn't have the legs to go with the leaders. The best he has finished here is 15th (twice) and I can't see that improving much on Saturday. 

Mitchelton-Scott's best hope probably rests with Chris-Juul Jensen, with the Irish-Dane showing last year that it's the sort of race he likes to get stuck in to. It's also a rare chance for him to do his own thing and not having to work for the likes of the Yates' brothers, Chavez or Trentin. He was very impressive in 7th in 2017, only just losing contact with the leaders on the extremely steep and tough climb to La Tolfe when Kwiat and GVA pulled away. It's a big ask to stay with the likes of GVA again, but he might come close to a podium. 

Luke Durbridge is a rider who surprised in this race in 2017, being involved in the shakeup in the last 30kms, he just kept coming back and coming back, and rode to the finish with Dumoulin, desperately trying to catch the leaders. His size and lack of climbing power worked against him at the death, his general power, cycling skills and determination got him a top 10 finish. He could well top 10 again, he seems to be in pretty good form too. 

 Giovanni Visconti has dropped down a level this season to ride with Neri Sottoli, but has not lost his spark judging by some of his performances so far this year. 5th just last week in the Drome Classic behind Vuillermoz and 11th in the Trofeo Laigueglia. He has done this race ten times in its various guises and has a pretty good record here, his best result in fact came last year when he came home just 2" behind Valverde to take 5th place. He's also finished 6th, 8th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 22nd and 25th, so he could well be involved in the shakeup again.

Trek have a few hopefuls too, with Bauke Mollema and Toms Skujins, but it's Mollema's first Strade and Skujins found it tough going a year ago when finishing 75th. Mollema though is an interesting one for me, he could well be strong enough to be right at the front on these sorts of climbs and in this sort of company, and as we see in San Sebastian, he likes a tough climb near the finish.. He could be a wild outsider at a big price of 80/1 with 365. Fabio Felline could go ok (he's finished 8th in 2015 and 13th in 2017, but crashed out last year) but Markel Irizar has never gone well here.

Sunweb don't have a great team here, but could have a dark horse in Robert Power. The Aussie surprised a lot of people last year with an amazing ride to finish in 6th, ahead of Stybar and Sagan, just 4" behind Valverde in 4th. It looks like he enjoys it here and has the right attributes to go well.. He could be worth a small bet at a big price of 100/1. Sam Oomen can climb with the best of them, but has he the mettle to fight with the toughest guys on a course like this at the first time of asking? I don't think he's in the same league as WVA from that point of view, but he could well manage a top 20, but I'm not backing him.

There's a bit of a surprise in the UAE team, with Fernando Gaviria lining up, brave move given that MSR is so close.. This course takes no prisoners, and I doubt he'll even finish.

Rui Costa though is riding well at the moment. Two 4th places in stages in Oman, finishing with GVA on the tough finish to stage 3 and 4th on Green Mountain, and he also finished with Roglic, Dumoulin, Martin and the best in the Jebel Jais stage in the UAE Tour. He's never ridden here before, but if any comparison can be drawn with a hilly Classic, he has finished 3rd and 4th in LBL over the years, and has of course won the World Championships on a hilly course in Italy.

He may be here to help Tadej Pogacar around to see what he can do on that final climb to Siena, if in contention, the baby-faced Slovenian was sensational in the Algarve, taking a mountain stage win and finishing 5th in the TT on his way to overall victory. At 40/1 he is shorter than Costa, Power and Nibali, but for a bit of fun he's worth an e/w, you may never see a price like that on him again if he goes well..

I can't really see anyone from AG2R (maybe Geniez or Dillier or Jauregui - he has finished 12th here two years ago), Bora (maybe Gatto or Oss, but neither have ever ridden it), Groupama, EF Education First (Maybe Alex Howes or Simon Clarke), Katusha or Vital Concept troubling the podium though.    

So really, it looks like a battle between DQS, CCC and Lotto-Soudal, with Astana throwing a few jabs in too and Wout Van Aert fighting all comers.. Wellens and Benoot vs Stybar and Alaphilippe vs GVA vs Lutsenko and Fuglsang vs. WVA.. And it's hard to call who will come out on top of that lot. I'm leaning towards GVA finally taking a win here, I think he can stay with Wellens, Alaphilippe, WVA and Stybar and could outsprint them all at the finish.

But given the nature of the course and the fact that we could see a lot of cat and mouse between the top players here, we could see a similar situation to OHN and KBK where a strong 'outsider' rides away and the hesitation between the favourites to chase could see them make it. Robert Power, Bauke Mollema, Tadeg Pogacar and Lutsenko are the sorts of guys to take off and try to steal it. To show how tight it is at the top, Skybet go 4/1 each of Alaphilippe, Stybar and GVA.. 

It's one of my favourite races of the year, I am really looking forward to it, hopefully we can land a profit on the day too to make it even better.

As for Paris-Nice, well I don't have time to cover that this week, but it looks ridiculously hard to call - the betting reflects that with eight riders under 10/1 and Wilko Kelderman a weak 11/2 favourite. If you were to twist my arm to give a bet, I'd say Bernal each-way at 8/1 should go close. In stage 1 I'm backing Bennett to carry on where he left off in the UAE Tour, he might just have too much speed for Groenewegen who had a tough race last Sunday.     

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 6/1 with Betway

0.3pts e/w on Robert Power at 100/1 with Skybet paying 4

0.3pts e/w on Bauke Mollema at 80/1 with Betway (365 are only 66/1 now)

0.3pts e/w on Tadej Pogacar at 50/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

Match Bets:

Mollema to beat Majka and WVA to beat Visconti - 3pts at evens with 365

Add Costa to beat Prades to make it a treble - 2pts at 2.2/1 with 365

Kreuziger to beat Nibali - 2pts at 10/11

Felline to beat Thomas - 2pts at 6/5