Details

Published on Thursday, 02 March 2017 22:13

Strade Bianche 

Siena to Siena

Saturday 4th March 2017, 175kms

The 11th running of the Strade Bianche sees the introduction of a section of road dedicated to Fabian Cancellara, following his third win in the race in 2016. It's a similar route to last year, but with 9kms more dirt roads, making it a total of 61.9kms of the 'strade bianche' this year. 

What a great opening weekend of proper one-day racing we had last weekend. Both races were action packed and both races were won in fine style by two of the biggest stars on the planet at the moment. Whether it was Peter Sagan bossing the whole of the Omloop, up until the last 150m, Greg Van Avermaet brilliantly taking his second win in a row in the race, or Sagan again bossing the KBK, this time all the way to the line, cruising to victory. Add to that his bizarre and hilarious post-race interviews and the face-stuffing of Haribos, he certainly entertained us over the weekend. 

The Omloop was spoiled, or made, you could argue by the big crash on the Donderij, with many of the pre-race favourites taken out of the action just as it was all kicking off up front on the Taaienberg. Sagan probably did too much on Saturday, but learned from it and was a bit more conservative on the Sunday and got the deserved victory. Arnaud Démare gave me some hope for a while, he was almost certainly the fastest sprinter in the front group, but a tactical error when he didn't make more of an effort to make the bridge saw his chances go up in smoke.. of course he won the sprint for 6th ahead of Van Avermaet..

And so on to Strade Bianche.. Last year's race was brilliant, with Fabian Cancellara breaking the heart of Gianluca Brambilla, catching and passing him inside the last 500m. Brambilla had been superb, out in a break for most of the day and pressing on with 23kms to go with Brent Bookwalter, before dropping him too and pressing on solo with 20kms to go. Behind Sagan, Cancellara and Stybar made their move from the front group on the tough climb of the Colle Pinzuto with 18.8kms to go and bridged up to Brambilla, while Nibali, Benoot, Valverde and Van Avermaet slipped out the back door. 

Brambilla attacked again with 6.1kms to go as they approached Siena, and held a lead of around 12" as they passed under the 1km to go sign at the edge of the town. He looked to have it in the bag as he charged up the hill, but suddenly, Cancellara and Stybar were on his wheel and came flying past him with less than 200m to go. Cancellara outfoxed Stybar in the final bend to take the win.

The race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche. Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011 and Moreno Moser in 2013.  

The Route

A twisty and undulating course, with no long climbs but with punchy hills, most significantly on the unpaved parts. There are roughly 62km of gravel roads, appearing in 11 sectors (eight of those shared with the Women Elite course). Starting from Siena (Stadium/Medicean Fortress area), the first undulating kilometres are on tarmac before reaching the 2.1km gravel Sector 1 at km 11, which is perfectly straight and slightly uphill.

Shortly after they face Sector 2 (4.7km), the course’s first real challenge with a short descent and a long climb with parts at over 10%. The course will then go through Radi, where Sector 3 starts (4.4km) and immediately after Sector 4, one of its classic gravel sectors (5.5km, featured in the course since its first edition) with no significant gradient and leading to Buonconvento. The Montalcino is next, (4km at 5%) and after Torrenieri the riders will face Sectors 5 (11.9km) and 6 (8km) with only 1km of tarmac in between them. Both are hard, hilly, very punchy and with many bends, climbs and descents.

Soon the route reaches Monteroni d’Arbia, which marks the beginning of Sector 7 of San Martino in Grania (9.5km) in the middle of the Crete Senesi. It's a long sector with continuous up and downs in the first part, ending up with a twisting climb before meeting the tarmac again. In Ponte del Garbo (Asciano) gravel Sector 8 begins. At 11.5km it's the hardest of the race, mostly uphill and characterised by tough hills, the most important being those close to Monte Sante Marie with some very steep gradients.

The penultimate sector is one of the most crucial, the scene of where the significant moves have happened for the last two years, the Colle Pinzuto, which features gradients of up to 15%. After a few kilometres the riders will face the last sector (Sector 11, 1.1km) which features a sequence of a demanding descents followed by a very punchy climb (max 18%) that ends up at the Tolfe. From here only 12km separate the riders from the finish in Piazza del Campo, Siena.

It's a really tricky finale though which you will need to have saved some energy for, it starts rising uphill as they enter the town with 1km to go, gradually getting steeper and until they are in the narrow, house-lined Via San Catarina which hits gradients of 15%. It was here that Van Avermaet made his move in 2015 and Valverde went pop. Then a sharp right turn and it eases off a little, a left turn with 300m to go and they arc slightly uphill along the Via Bianchi del Sotto before a sharp right with 150m to go in to the Piazza and the finish line. It's a finish that can see chances disappear in the space of 300m, as we saw with the finish of the last two years.. 

Weather

A note on the weather - the forecast for the Siena region on Saturday isn't great, it looks like it is going to be raining from 10am to 4pm, basically most of the time they are riding. The wind is going to be a factor too, its's mostly a southerly wind, blowing up to around 13-15mph, meaning that they will have a cross/headwind mostly on the way out to the southern-most part and then a cross/tailwind mostly on the way back. It does mean though that in that last few kilometres as they head back towards Siena it will be a headwind, something that will work against solo riders on their last legs. Temperature is ok though, around 13-14°. 

Contenders and Favourites

With Paris Nice starting the next day, we are missing some of the top riders, but as Tirreno Adriatico doesn't start until Wednesday we still have an excellent lineup of riders here, with some using this as a good final training session. Others meanwhile are specifically targeting this race and for them it most definitely will not be a training session.. 

This is a race that takes a real all-rounder, but more so, the real strong men. There are lots of hills to get over but also lots of really fast parts. The chalk roads are challenging and can be dangerous at times, and can really sap the energy, even more so when it's wet and windy. And of course the finish requires an explosion of power up that last kilometre, especially in the parts that hit 16% inside the last 500m.

Peter Sagan has the perfect profile based on that description, and he came close last year, kicking off the move that eventually reeled in Brambilla for the first time and took the race-deciding selection with him on the Colle Pinzuto. He struggled to go with Cancellara and Stybar when they accelerated on the final climb though, eventually coming in 4th, just after Brambilla. Perhaps, as seems to be too often the case with Sagan, he showed too much out on the course and didn't have enough left in the tank at the finish.. He seemed to do a better job of that last Sunday in KBK, after doing too much and losing out in OHN on the Saturday. 

He hadn't had great luck in the race prior to this though - in his first ride in the race in 2012 he suffered a puncture and a crash despite being in a good position towards the business end. In 2013 he chased home his team-mate Moreno Moser who had attacked the remains of his break as they hit the final steep parts and he took the 'win' from the bunch. In 2014 he was beaten by Kwiatkowski who was the better man at the finish. And in 2015, he was active and in the initial big move, but just couldn't keep up when Vanmarcke, Valverde and Van Avermaet accelerated on the climb with 25kms to go.

He is clearly incredibly strong again this year, he just seems to pull races apart whenever he wants to. On Saturday in in OHN he was playing with them, but paid for his exertions on the uphill finish again. On Sunday, in KBK, he hid away a lot more, sitting at the back, sandbagging for a lot of the latter parts, but it was clear the effect that was having, in that the lead dropped to just 27" as they passed the bell. The others were just not as strong as him when pulling at the front, or were just not willing to push too hard to bring Sagan to the line. So he went to the front again and suddenly the lead shot back up again to 40, 50 seconds.

And in the end he didn't wait to be outsprinted, he just went for it and outsmarted and outmuscled him to the line. It's almost certain he will be in the race-deciding group, the question is, how will he fare on that final climb to the finish this year??

Winner of OHN and 7th place finisher in KBK, Greg Van Avermaet is back again this year to try to improve upon his 6th place from last year when he just failed to stay with Sagan's move with 19kms to go. His record here is very impressive - in the six times he has entered this race he has finished 13th, 9th, 5th, 6th, 2nd and 6th. 

This race is a real race of attrition - there is no such thing as a peloton once they hit the last 30kms. So it's very important to have some strong team-mates to help you at the finish. Also, there is going to be a cross-wind for most of the day so there is even more of a chance of the race being broken to bits by the stronger guys. One of the strongest teams here is BMC again - we saw how important Oss was to Van Avermaet in 2015 and 2016. Oss is back with Bookwalter, Drucker, Hermans, Quinziato, Caruso and Kung, a seriously impressive line-up.  

He was superb in this race in 2015, really aggressive, starting the main move on the Santa Maria and also attacking in the last 500m to get rid of Valverde, but he was just no match for Stybar in the finish. He looks to be in great form again this spring, but looked less of a threat in Sunday's KBK, but that was understandable given he had won 24 hours before. He is sure to be involved again, but can he shake off those more likely to win on this finish? He has the weather and conditions in his favour a little you could say, he doesn't seem to mind riding in wet and dirty conditions, so I think he is likely to be a serious contender again this year. 

Ben Hermans has been riding very impressively this year so far, his climbing performance in the Tour of Oman was pretty sensational, taking two stages and the overall. That followed his fine 2nd place in Valenciana, where the win in the TTT for BMC kickstarted it for him. It could give BMC a two-prong attack here, where Hermans can either go on the attack himself, or chase down the attacks that are going to come from the likes of Quickstep and Sagan, thus freeing up GVA to coast to the latter stages.  

Quickstep have had a pretty good start to the season, but were knocked for six by Boonen's crash in Omloop, they didn't seem to have a back-up plan and they ended up with no rider in the winning move again, Trentin their best-placed rider in 8th place. They have an abundance of talent for this race though, the trouble for them, and us, is trying to pick which of their horses to back.

Zdenek Stybar, he is tailor-made for this course being an ex-cyclocross champion and he showed in the last two years that he has all the atributes to win the race - he can climb, he can power it on the flats, he can descend and he's got a hell of a punch at the finish.. He finished 14th in Omloop and 9th in KBK, he was there or thereabouts but not quite the finished article, but I think he has been saving himself for this race in an effort to take back his crown, now Cancellara has retired..

I think he has a big chance again, but there's not a lot of value in him at just 13/2 with Ladbrokes, the 9/1 with PP is a little better for an each-way, I think he will be in the first 3.       

Along with Stybar, they have some serious firepower in that team with Bob Jungels, Matteo Trentin, Julien Vermote, Petr Vakoc.. Jungels is going well but may struggle with the climbing towards the end again like last year, Vermote likewise, Trentin and Vakoc will help to try to keep it together long enough for Styby to attack later on.

Petr Vakoc is another who will be a serious contender if he's on a good day. He appeared suddenly in 5th place last year, we had seen very little of who was just behind, as the cameras focused on the leaders, but he wasn't far behind at all. He started last season in much better form than this though, he had won two races, had a 2nd, a 4th and a 5th in races at this time last year, this year his best result was 6th place in the Cadel Evans race.. I think he will be a work horse for Stybar and their other main man as far as I'm concerned, Gianluca Brambilla.

Gianluca Brambilla was brilliant I thought last year, he was out in the break that was still leading with 50kms to go, with Monfort, Grivko and Bookwalter, and he was doing all the pushing. He attacked again on the Montaperti with 23.5kms to go and only Bookwalter could go with him, but then he left him behind too with 22kms to go. When Sagan blew things apart with Stybar with 18.5km to go, Brambilla eased up, waited for them and then went with them, and Cancellara who also bridged. He then had the audacity to attack such illustrious opponents with 7.7kms to go, and almost hung on, just faltering in the shadow of the finish line.  I think he will be given a free role again Saturday to do what he wants, but maybe this time he needs to try to stay with the favourites and save energy for a big late attack again. 33/1 is fair enough I think, was hoping for better, but he did finish 3rd here last year 

Astana have a number of options again this year, wth Oscar Gatto, Fabio Aru, LL Sanchez, Micahel Valgren and Dimitri Gruzdev all in with chances of being involved at the business end. In 2015, when riding for Androni, Oscar Gatto finished 6th, just 59" behind Stybar and only 41" behind Valverde in 3rd place, a fantastic result, but he has also finished as high as 3rd in 2012 and 7th in 2011. He didn't really feature last year, but finished an impressive 5th in Omloop so he could be right up there in the mix in the last 50kms but I'm not sure he'll be winning it either this year..

I'm not sure Fabio Aru has the mettle for a race like this, I'm not interested in him, nor Luis Leon, but Michael Valgren, Andrei Grivko or Dimitri Grusdev could be involved in the attacks and may hang in there to the end

Besides Eitxx-Quickstep, the other Belgian team, Lotto-Soudal, also have a team here that looks pretty strong. Tiesj Benoot rode very well again in KBK on Sunday, taking a fine 4th place, but was taken out of the Omloop by the crash on the Donderij. He was very impressive here too last year, coming home with the GVA group and taking 8th place. He was pushing that group that included GVA, Vakoc and Fuglsang for a lot of the chase, neither the climbs nor the gravel roads seemed to phase him, but I think he struggled on the final climb compared to the others, and that could be his achilles heel again, unless he's solo on the final climb, I think there are others who wil beat him. 

Lotto-Soudal also have Tim Wellens here, riding the Strade for the first time, and it will be interesting to see how he goes. He's been going well this year so far too with three wins to his name, including a fine win in Andalucia from the break with Simon Clarke. He could be well suited to this course, the hills and stone roads shouldn't be a problem to him, and if it rains he has a better chance than most, he seems to like the wet conditions.

Sean de Bie, Maxime Monfort, Jurgen Roelandts and Bart de Clercq could also feature - Roelandts (right) has had a good start to his season with 4th in the Vuelta Murcia and 11th in the Omloop. It's how they can win it is the question though, they will all need to be solo I think as they might be outgunned by stronger guys on that finish. But at 200/1 I think he is a massive price to give us a run for our money.

Bahrain Merida have an interesting team here, with Vincenzo Nibali leading the team, although I don't think he'll be involved at the finish, I think he'll struggle around the same place as last year when the pace really whips up. It will be interesting to see how young Ondrej Cink goes, he was going well in Andalucia to finish 9th overall. He looks a star of the future, and he isn't necessarily too young to go well, Vakoc was only 23 when he finished 5th last year, Cink is actually 26 even though he's new to pro road racing. Giovanni Visconti, his team-mate is a Tuscan resident so watch out for him too, he finished 16th last year. 

Cannondale Drapak have a strong looking team here too, with Sep Vanmarcke looking to build on his fine 3rd place in the Omloop. He came close to winning this in 2015, just running out of gas in the last kilometre, and was left behind by Stybar, Van Avermaet and Valverde. Vanmarcke looked very strong to me in the Omloop, but disappointed me with his attitude, he seemed to just resign himself to 3rd long before the finish as they apparently agreed to go to a sprint finish. His lack of at least an attempt of an attack even surprised Sagan. He could have the power to be right up there again Saturday, but he will need a 30" lead I think hitting the 1km to go banner in order to win. 

I'm hearing though that they will be riding for Rigoberto Uran on Saturday, something that might surprise some. I guess they think that his finishing kick is far better than Vanmarcke's and if he's there at the finish he might be able to out-sprint some of his possible rivals if he can come to the finish with the lead group. He has finished 7th here in 2015, and he went alright in Andalucia, taking two 9th places on stages and 8th overall in the GC. He might be worth a small investment at 80/1. 

Cannondale have a whole team-full of quality actually with Alberto Bettiol an interesting one.. 4th in the GP Quebec and 7th in Montreal last year, he's a star of the future I think and could go well here too. Toms Skuijns was not down to do this race but looks like he got a late call up, he loves it cold and wet and has a background in mountain biking, so will be a vital cog in the team's plans. Simon Clarke has been riding well too this year and Dylan Van Baarle and Sebastian Langeveld are two power-houses that can help the team's cause earlier in the race.

Team Sky - what a week they have had off the bike, when they have been exposed and humiliated over the Simon Cope/Wiggins jiffy bag situation. Can they put the tumultous week behind them and focus on getting something out of this race? It will be hard for the riders - those who have been involved in Sky's questionable practices might be feeling a bit nervous and stressed and those who weren't will be feeling a bit nervous and pissed off about being tarnished by all of this.

They have a number of candidates who could be key players in this race though if luck is with them. Salvatore Puccio will be hoping for a better year than last year when his motor seemed to jam a few times  he had multiple mechanical issues when still in contention - at 150/1 I'm sure he'll have his backers.

Michal Kwiatkowski of course won this race in 2014 with a powerful late attack, holding off Sagan and Valverde. The former World Champion really seems to have come off the boil since becoming World Champ though, he was down in 20th last year, it was a year to forget for Michal though in 2016, maybe this year will be better for him? He is looking very slim and lean and he went very well in the Algarve, finishing 3rd and 4th on the two key mountain stages and 4th in the TT to secure 2nd overall in the GC, 22" behind Roglic. If he has indeed got his form back and is going for this, it's little surprise to see him near the top of the betting, he probably has a big chance. 18/1 with Paddies is too short though I think, the 10/1 with Ladbrokes definitely is. 

Geraint Thomas makes his season debut as he continues to prepare and focus on his target of the Giro d'Italia, and I can't see this as being anything other than a training race for him to be honest. They also have Gianni Moscon, Tao Gaoghan Hart, Michal Golas and Ian Boswell who could all go well, but their final outside chance could be Diego Rosa.. Rosa rode well in Andalucia, finishing 4th and 6th in the first two stages to help him secure an excellent 5th place on the GC. He finished an excellent 5th here when riding for Astana in 2015, coming home on his own just 10" behind Vanmarcke. If he's on a good day he could be like Hermans for BMC, attacking and helping give Kwiat an easy ride, or if Kwiat isn't on a good day he could assume the role of team captain.33/1 sounds about right for him, I wouldn't take much lower. 

Orica-Scott have a few candidates with big engines who could be involved here - Romain Kreuziger looks to have been given the no. 1 bib in the team, understandable as he has finished 11th, 5th and 6th the last three times he has done this race, the 5th in 2014 was just 4" behind Valverde's 3rd place.. He had a pretty quiet start to the season in Abu Dhabi, but it was nothing other than a training race really. He holds his own in the hilly Classics, but I think the extra needed to win this isn't there any more, he may come home in the first or second chasing group in 10th to 20th I think. 

Jens Keukeleire might be involved, but he hasn't had a great start to the season and is starting to get to the point that I am starting to put him in the 'over-rated' category, I agree with the 150/1 on him. Luke Durbridge went ok in KBK and Omloop, showing himself at the front at key points in the Omloop on Saturday and he finished 17th here in 2015. And Chris-Juul Jensen might do well in this race in years to come, but I think he'll be tasked with looking after RK on Saturday. 

One team and rider I want to have onside though is Fabio Felline of Trek.. Felline is a rider that just impresses me more and more every time I watch him. He seems to be developing in to an all round star and I think he is going to pick off some really big results in this and the coming seasons. A fine 4th place in Omloop showed he has the mettle for a tough day in the saddle. His ability to get over hills in Stages and one-day races marks him out as a danger man on a course like this. He won the Trofeo Laigueglia earlier this year on a lumpy course and he showed just how good his climbing is with an amazing 3rd place finish behind Brambilla and Quintana on the Cat 1 finish of the Formigal on stage 15 of the Vuelta last year. The points jersey in the Vuelta was just reward for his all-round abilities.

He has only entered this race in 2015, and he finished 8th then when just 25, I think he could be a big player here this weekend. He has the beast Jasper Stuyven here to look after him, along with Marco Coledan, Mads Pedersen, Eugenio Alafaci and Markel Irizar. Now the problem is it looks like others want to back him too.. Ladbrokes opened at 18/1, I took that, just in case.. Paddy Power opened at 40/1 apparently, I went to get it, they were already 25/1.. I hesitated with it in the bet slip and a few minutes later when I went to back him it was already 18/1! So I left that for now, maybe someone else will open at 20/1 or higher. If 18/1 is the best you can get I'd still recommend backing him around that price. 

LottoNL Jumbo have Algarve winner Primus Roglic here, and it will be interesting to see how he goes this year, he was well off the pace last year in his only time trying this race (or any other major one-day race), I can't have him. Floris de Tier, Bert Jan Lindeman and Juan José Lobato might go ok too if on really good days. 

Dimension Data's best hope is probably Edvald Boasson Hagen, but he's never done this race and hasn't a great record in tough one-day races. Scott Thwaites might go ok too, he skipped Le Samyn this year (a race he finished 2nd in last year) in favour of preparing for this, but it's been a pretty lack-lustre start to the season so far for him.  

I'm not sure Movistar have a rider capable of being there at the finish, maybe Andrey Amador if he's he's on a really good day, he has finished 13th, 15th and 17th in this race in the past and has an engine that might keep him in the mix. Sunweb have Wilko Kelderman and Tom Dumoulin leading their chances, out of the two, I'd rather be on Dumoulin as he has a bigger engine and has twice done this race, finishing in 17th in 2012 and 14th in 2014. Kelderman isn't a one-day classics racer and has never done this race, I can't see him popping up on the podium as a result. And not forgetting Thibaut Pinot with FDJ, I'm not sure this is a race for him either though, it's good training though... 

Conclusion

I could go on and on.. there are just so many guys who could have a big race here.. lots who I haven't named either. But how I see it going in a nutshell is the early break will get reeled in, possibly with as much as 40-50kms to go, and from then on it is all out war between the favourites on the big climbs. As they attack each other and push the pace, the group will thin out to around 20-30 riders and the winner will come from this. I expect Sagan, GVA, Vanmarcke, Benoot, Brambilla, Stybar, Kwiatkowski, Vakoc, Wellens, Hermans and Felline to be amongst those there. 

Sagan will stretch things out and it will be a select group of less than ten that will fight out the finish. I'm just not sure he'll be able to deal with better climbers on that final hill, he may have to try to shake them off before that. Van Avermaet and Vanmarcke should be right up there too. I like Felline and Brambilla, but I think Quickstep could have a good day and Stybar has to be backed as he is a great shout for a top 3 at worst. Small bets on a few outsiders too for fun.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Zdenek Stybar at 7/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts win on Fabio Felline at 18/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Rigoberto Uran at 80/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way at 200/1 on Jurgen Roelandts with Ladbrokes

Match Bets:

Brambilla to beat Wellens - 3pts at evens

Uran to beat Rosa - 2pts at 13/8

Vakoc to beat Moscon, Stybar to beat Kwiatkowski, Vanmarcke to beat EBH - 2pts on the treble at 5/2