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Published on Thursday, 03 March 2016 23:43

Strade Bianche 

Siena to Siena

Saturday 5th March 2016, 176kms

In only its 10th year, the Strade Bianche has achieved an enviable reputation as one of the most looked-forward to races of the spring. It's a world away from the middle-eastern races and a break in the rhythm between the cobbled classics of the northern european season openers. 

The race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche, named after the chalk roads which make up some 50kms of this year's course, criss-crossing over the rolling hills of Tuscany. Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011 and Moreno Moser in 2013.

Fabian Cancellara has a good record in this race, winning in 2008 and 2012, and he has also finished 4th, 5th and 6th - he had not finished lower than 6th in the 5 times he has enetered up until last year, when he finished in 19th place.

Last year's race was a cracker, with the big move finally being made on the Monte Santa Maria, an 11km climbing section of the gravel roads that came with 53kms to go. An elite selection forged ahead that included Sagan, Cancellara, Stybar, Rosa, Valverde, Vanmarcke, Van Avermaet, Oss, Cort Neilsen and Nathan Haas. Just a few kilometres later, still on the climb, Sagan surged again and only Stybar and Valverde could go with him. They pressed on and got about a 26" lead at one point, but the chasers quickly ate in to the lead on the descent and with just under 40kms to go they made the catch, you can see the chasers just about to catch the leaders below them,

It was in no small part due to the amount of work done by Daniel Oss, working for his team leader, with BMC the only team with more than one rider at the front of the race. Not only did he bridge to the leaders, but he went straight to the front and kept pushing so the chasing group, that included Vincenzo Nibali, wouldn't catch them. With 26.5kms to go, Oss attacked again, making the others chase him and gave GVA a rest for a while. Vanmarcke went in pursuit and strung things out so much that Sagan went pop and only GVA, Valverde, Stybar and Vanmarcke were left in front as they hit the steep Colle Pinzuto.

With 14.6kms to go, GVA attacked hard, got a gap, Valverde bridged with Stybar and Vanmarcke chased hard to catch back on, and even though he was 26" back at one stage, he caught the three leaders as they entered Siena with 1km to go but had nothing left when the road rose upwards inside the City walls. GVA attacked on the steep last 500m, Valverde popped and Stybar caught and counter-attacked to go on to take a fantastic victory. It was a great result for Stybar and for me, having tipped him at 14/1!

The Route

The route changes from year to year, last year's being a u-shaped loop that started north-west of Siena in San Gimignano and finished in Siena. This year they are starting and finisihing in Siena, leaving from the Medicean fortress and finishing in the Piazza Del Campo as is now traditional. The big change to the route is that it is far shorter than last year's, 24kms shorter at just 176kms, meaning we may see more riders in contention at the finish this year. 

Planimetria Strade Bianche 2016 by giroditalia

The race leaves Siena and head south-west and after just 11kms they hit the first gravel sector, The 'Vidritta' which is 2.1kms and is slightly uphill. Soon they hit the first hard climb of the day just after Murlo, the Passo del Rospatoio after 23kms, which is paved but rough (5km at 5% avg). After 39.8kms they hit gravel sector two, the Strada Cass di Murlo (5.5km) and 10kms later they reach t he tough climb up to Montelcino (4km at 5%), where by now we could have seen the first major reduction in the peloton. After Torrenieri, they meet a tough section, with gravel sectors three (11.9km) and four (8km) with only 1km of regular road in between. Both sections are very rough and difficult with lots of bends and descents to negotiate.

After the Ponte d’Arbia feed station, they arrive at Monteroni d’Arbia and start on the San Martino in Grania sector (9.5km), a long, rolling stretch of gravel in the first part, ending up with a tough, twisting climb. In Ponte del Garbo (Asciano), they hit the sixth gravel sector, the Monte Santa Maria, which saw the race deciding moves being made by Sagan, Valverde, Stybar et al. At 11.5km mostly uphill, it’s the hardest section of the race, and with the finish coming just 43kms from the top this year, it is surely going to be decisive again. After 151kms the peloton will face the seventh sector, which is only 800m, but has a double-digit gradient ramp before returning to tarmac in Vico d’Arbia.

Next comes the penultimate sector (2.4km) of the climb of Colle Pinzuto which hits gradients of up to 15 percent. The final gravel sector could well see the final attacks and race deciding moves coming, as they go down a number of tricky descents before arriving at a very punchy climb of Le Tolfe that hits a maximum gradient of 18 percent. From the top of La Tolfe there's only 12kms to the finish in Piazza del Campo, Siena.

It's a really tricky finale though which you will need to have saved some energy for, it starts rising uphill as they enter the town with 1km to go, gradually getting steeper and narrower until they are in the narrow, house-lined Via San Catarina which hits gradients of 15%. It was here that Van Avermaet made his move last year and Valverde went pop. Then a sharp right turn and it eases off a little, a left turn with 300m to go and they arc slightly uphill along the Via Bianchi del Sotto before a sharp right with 150m to go in to the Piazza and the finish line. 

The Weather

The forecast isn't great for Saturday, with a 30% chance of rain in the morning, but that will drop to around a 12% chance in the afternoon according to the long-term forecast. More importantly though is that it is forecast to be very windy again - winds of up to 22mph coming from the south-west, which means they will have a cross-headwind heading out to the turning point in Montalcino and a cross-tailwind coming at them from their left for most of the journey back to Siena. The last 5kms back towards Siena will mostly be in a head-wind so it could inconvenience a lone attacker potentially. The possible rain will reduce the dust, but will make it even more difficult with the gravel roads becoming a lot heavier and also more slippy and dangerous with grey mud. If it does rain a lot we could see scenes like this from the 2010 Giro d'Italia which traversed the Strade Bianche on stage 10 (won by Cadel Evans (2nd in pic) with Vinokourov in 3rd (front of pic)

Contenders and Favourites

With Paris Nice starting the next day, we are missing some top quality riders, but with Tirreno Adriatico only a matter of days after and with the race gaining so much in reputation and prestige, we have probably the best lineup that has ever started the race here.

This is a race that takes a real all-rounder, but more so, the real strong men. There are lots of hills to get over but also lots of really fast parts. The chalk roads are challenging and can be dangerous at times, and can really sap the energy, more so if it's going to be wet and windy. And of course the finish requires an explosion of power up that last kilometre, especially in the parts that hit 16% inside the last 500m

Peter Sagan has the perfect profile based on that description, but he hasn't had great luck in the race so far in his career! In his first ride in the race in 2012 he suffered a puncture and a crash despite being in a good position towards the business end. In 2013 he chased home his team-mate Moreno Moser who had attacked the remains of his break as they hit the final steep parts and took the 'win' from the bunch. In 2014 he was beaten by Kwiatkowski who was the better man at the finish. And last year, he was active and in the initial big move, but just couldn't keep up when Vanmarcke, Valverde and Van Avermaet accelerated on the climb with 25kms to go.

Well his season has been a similar story to his record in Strade Bianche, and his record coming in to this race last year - lots of good results, but no wins. He was very agressive in Omloop and KBK, but in Omloop he never looked 100% to me and he was beaten in the sprint quite comfortably by GVA, I was laying him in running. He hasn't disguised the fact that he has bigger plans in the near future also and these are just prep races it seems.. He has a very strong team here with him though with Jay McCarthy a rider who shone in the TDU, beating Ulissi on the hill up to Stirling and wearing the leader's jersey for a while. He also has Oscar Gatto, Romain Kreuziger, Adam Blythe, local boy Daniele Bennati, Pavel Brut and Maciej Bodnar - a pretty formidable lineup.

Last year, when riding for Androni, Oscar Gatto finished 6th, just 59" behind Stybar and only 41" behind Valverde in 3rd place, a fantastic result, but he has also finished as high as 3rd in 2012 and 7th in 2011. He has shown with his stage win in Ruta del Sol that he has great legs this season too. Romain Kreuziger was 11th last year, but he has also finished 5th here in 2014 and 6th in 2013. Tinkoff have multiple options here and Sagan should be right up there in the mix in the last 50kms but I'm not sure he'll be winning it either this year. At the prices, Gatto is a more attractive bet at 50/1.

This race is a real race of attrition - there is no such thing as a peloton once they hit the last 30kms. So it's very important to have some strong team-mates to help you at the finish. Also, there is going to be a cross-wind for most of the day so there is even more of a chance of the race being broken to bits by the stronger guys. Probably the strongest team here on the startline is BMC again - we saw how important Oss was to Van Avermaet last year. This year Greg Van Avermaet has the support of Allesandro de Marchi, Brent Bookwalter, Damiano Caruso, Daniel Oss, Manuel Quinziato - exactly like last year, but this year Samu Sanchez and Stetina have been replaced by Jempy Drucker and Taylor Phinney making his long-awaited return to European racing.

Van Avermaet is in superb form of course, finally getting a monkey off his back with his win in OHN. He was down the field in KBK, but that was a mess of a race, lots of fancied riders had days to forget as the peloton dropped the ball and just left Stuyven solo away to a superb victory. And it was understandable that he took it easy in a race that was not really suited to him at all. He was superb in this race last year, really agressive, starting the main move on the Santa Maria and also attacking in the last 500m to get rid of Valverde, but he was just no match for Stybar in the finish.

I fully expect him to be a key player in this race again on Saturday. There's not much value in him at 7/1, but he is likely to be a strong podium contender and probably offers one of the safer-looking each-way bets, especially I think if the conditions become really difficult. Maybe this year when he makes that kick on the final climb he has that little bit more power that means he isn't caught by whoever he is with and he soloes to victory. 

Etixx have had an eventful start to the season with wins for Dan Martin, Marcel Kittel, Brambilla, Martinelli, Vakoc and Bob Jungels, but their start to the northern classics hadn't gone very well at all, as they completely missing the big move in the OHN and Wisniowski just rescuing their KBK with a 5th place finish. They managed to get things back on track a little with the superb solo victory for Nikki Terpstra in Le Samyn in a real hard race on Wednesday (only 28 riders finished) and will look to try to continue the winning ways here. 

This is a big chance for them though with Zdenek Stybar, he is tailor-made for this course being an ex-mountainbiker and he showed last year that he has all the atributes to win the race - he can climb, he can power it on the flats, he can descend and he's got a hell of a punch at the finish. He finished 2nd in the Trofeo Pollenca in Mallorca behind his team-mate Brambilla but was pretty anonymous in the Algarve last week, he may well have been just preparing and training for this race. He is co-favourite with GVA at 7/1 and you can see why it's hard to split them, Stybar had the upper hand last year, but GVA is showing he is better than ever this year.

Along with Stybar, they have some serious firepower in that team with Bob Jungels, Tony Martin, Pieter Serry, Matteo Trentin, Julien Vermote and man of the moment Petr Vakoc. Jungels is going well but may struggle with the climbing here, Martin likewise, Trentin, Serry and Vermote will do a job trying to keep it together long enough for Styby to attack later on. Petr Vakoc is in great shape at the moment, he finished 2nd in the Tour Cycliste La Provence but won the Classic Sud Arderche and the Drome Classic, all in the space of five days last week. The Czech National champion is still only 23, but if he can hang in there over the Santa Maria, he has a big chance of being involved at the finish, he is in such great form. At 66/1 he was a lively outsider.. he has been cut to just 25/1 though so a lot of the value is gone now, he still could be worth an interest though.

Astana have a strong team here to support Vincenzo Nibali, with Diego Rosa, who rode well in this race last year and Jacob Fuglsang who has just finished 3rd overall in the Tour of Oman. Nibali has started the season really well, better than I expected, he seems to be really on it early this year. Having said that though, his record in this race isn't great with 15th in 2012 his best result, and he skipped it for the next two years. Last year, he was blown out the back by the VavaVoom move (Vanmarcke/Valverde/Van Avermaet) that came with 50kms or so to go still, but he looks to be in better shape at this time of the year compared to last year. He comes here with a strong team and he could go well. If not, Jacob Fuglsang could be a dark horse for this race, he is in great shape at the moment also and at 66/1 versus just 16/1 for Nibali, I'd rather be on Fuglsang.

AG2R also have a man that is in great form this season, Jan Bakelants - just because he hasn't been racing in the headline races in Belgium it has sort of slipped under the radar a little. In his first eight road races of the year, his record reads 3, 3, 1, 14, 4, 8, 9, 2, finishing 3rd overall on La Mediteranéen and 8th overall in La Provence. When Vakoc won in La Drome Classic at the weekend, it was Bakelants who he beat in a tight finish. He carried on this season from a strong finish to last season when he won the Giro dell'Emilia and the Giro del Piemonte and finished 2nd in the Tour de Wallonie.

He's never done great in the big Classics though, like LBL or Lombardia, and he has never even entered Paris-Roubaix, Flanders or Strade Bianche before, so it's hard to know how he'll measure up here now in a sterner test of his form than races like La Drome Classic. He has moved around a lot between teams so it may be something in his head and with his attitude, but maybe now he has started posting some good results towards the end of last year and the start of this year he may be starting to settle down and feel more at ease at AG2R. He too was worth a bet at 66/1 I thought.

Besides Eitxx-Quickstep, the other Belgian team, Lotto-Soudal, also have a team here that looks pretty strong. Tiesj Benoot is flavour of the month and came close to landing a big result in OHN, settling for a very fine 3rd place in the end, but beaten by two of the best Classics men in the world, GVA and Peter Sagan. Not bad for a 21 year old student! He never looks phased by what he is up against or who he is riding against, he looks like a seasoned pro.

It will be interesting to see how he does in a race like this, with the amount of climbing and the gravel roads, but he seems to have the power and the tactical awareness to cope and to be in the right place at the right time. He is ably supported here by riders who could also have chances in their own right, Pim Ligthart, Jurgen Roelandts, Rafael Valls, Bart de Clercq and I expect to see Lotto represented quite well with 50kms or so to go. How can they win it? Well that's a different question. It will be very hard to solo away to the finish and I don't think any of them posess the sort of kick required in the last kilometre here, even if they are in contention with a leading group.

Alejandro Valverde has to naturally come in to your thinking as it's a bike race over hills, it is a given that he will be involved at the business end of the race. He's another rider who seems to be in far better shape than I expected, riding away solo on the Queen stage of the Ruta del Sol to steal overall victory from Tejay Van Garderen. He was the only one able to stay with Van Avermaet and Stybar last year but just ran out of gas in the last 500m when the big kick came from GVA. Dayer Quintana, Fran Ventoso, Andrey Amador and Gio Visconti are here to look after him but I expect it to be just Valverde in the front group again once they get over the Santa Maria with 43kms to go. He is a lot more value this year at 9/1 compared to 5/1 last year, so if you're a fan of Valverde I couldn't put you off backing him each-way at that price. Giovanni Visconti, his team-mate is a Tuscan resident so watch out for him too. 

Team Lotto-JumboNL are missing Vanmarcke this year, he rode a great race last year to finish 4th, and none of the team that are here get me excited really about their prospects. Van Asbroeck seems to be going ok, and maybe Robert Gesink might go well on a course like this, but he has never ridden the race before, nor has he done the cobbled classics either. He has gone well in the past though in Lombardia and LBL, so he may do ok on a course like this with so much climbing. 

Lampre-Merida's best hope may be Diego Ulissi, he has had a really good start to the season with seven top six finishes out of the eleven races he has started this year, including 2nd in his last race on Sunday in Lugano. He could well hang in there, and might have a chance on that uphill finish in to Siena, he always does well on the hill finish to Stirling in the TDU, although this is a lot steeper. But I can't see him staying with the likes of Van Avermaet, Stybar and Valverde when they start to crush it 45kms out and he may be left behind. Premeslaw Niemiec finished a fine 9th place last year, can he step up on that this year? It is going to be really hard, but if the weather turns, he could do ok. He looks big at 80/1 for a rider with some form on this course. 

Orica-Greenedge look lightweight to me, Jens Keukeleire may be their main man here, but he always seems to suffer some misfortune or incident in races at the worst time and in a race as tricky as this he's probably going to find trouble again. Chris-Juul Jensen and Ruben Plaza might go ok, but I can't see them being involved in the business end, unless it's a far less agressive race than say last year's one. 

At first Michal Kwiatkowski was not supposed to be riding here for Team Sky as he had been suffering from a stomach bug that took him out of the Volto al Algarve and their team didn't really strike me as a team that would have had anyone involved at the business end of this race. But now Kwiatkoswki is starting, the winner of the 2014 edition has been installed as more or less the same price as Cancellara, Sagan and Valverde. Two 2nd places in Mallorca behind breakaway winners Cancellara and Brambilla showed that he is in good form early this year and he has won here in the past, but as he has been sick and it has been five weeks since he raced last he might not be 100%.

Stannard doesn't start, but Nico Roche, Phil Deignan, Puccio, Boswell etc are here for training I think and nothing else, Poels may have a chance, but I can't see him being involved. One rider that catches the eye though is young Gianni Moscon - the Italian U23 champion finished in the main chasing group in OHN last weekend so he must be going well, he is 150/1.

Finally, Trek-Segafredo, or should I say Team Fabian Cancellara, as he looked to be literally their only hope of success here. But then Jasper Stuyven came along over the weekend and smashed the peloton to pieces with a solo performance right out of Cancellara's playbook to steal Kuurne-Brussels-Kurrne away from the sprinters. It was a pretty astonishing performance to see him actually gain time on his own, against a head-wind with a peloton chasing hard trying to set up their sprinters. Instead of going down, the gap was actually going up with 10kms to go, almost like he had Canceallara's Tour of Flanders motor in his bike..

He had tried the previous day to attack after the lead group in OHN, but overcooked it on a tight left hander and hit the dirt, but got up to finish 9th - so he clearly is feeling immensely strong at the moment! He has finished 3rd in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege for Espoirs in 2013 so he can cope with constant climbing on a punchy course like this. This is a big step up though and he may be asked to work for Cancellara, but if he is given free-reign and is near the front with 20kms to go, expect to see him try an attack. 

As for Fabian Cancellara, I mentioned above he has a fantastic record in this race, having won it in 2008 and 2012 and has also finished 4th, 5th and 6th here.. He wasn't able to go with the big move last year when Vanmarcke and Van Avermaet surged and I think we could see something similar again this year. He does look to be in good shape though, so I wouldn't rule him out. 

And that's about it for the main hopes, you have the likes of Pirazzi, Colbrelli, Pozzato, Rebellin, Bandiera, Cunego, Grosu, but of the outsiders/smaller team riders, Grega Bole may be one to keep an eye on for the Nippo-Vini Fantini team. He recently won the GP Costa Degli Etruschi and finished 3rd in the Trofeo Lagueglia, but the only time he entered this race in 2013 he didn't finish. He's 80/1 though and that might be worth a small intererst.

So it's a really hard race to call - this is evident in the odds with almost nothing between Stybar, Sagan, Valverde, Cancellara, Kwiatkowski, Van Avermaet, Nibali and Benoot. You rule any of that lot out at your peril and it could come down to a battle between most, if not all of them at the finish. The weather conditions could play a big part, as could luck in running with punctures and crashes. It's a shorter course this year, but still has over 50kms of gravel roads to negotiate, but that shorter distance could see more riders involved in that crucial last 25kms and we could see attacks galore. If the favourites mark each other and play games, some outsiders could go up the road and could stay away, like we saw in OHN.

Van Avermaet and Stybar are my two that I think will be at the front and most likely to win here and at 6/1 Van Avermaet is worth an each-way bet. Jan Bakelants, Grega Bole, Jacob Fuglsang, Petr Vakoc and Oscar Gatto are some big priced outsiders that could go well too. Benoot was worth a bet at 40/1 but I missed that and he's not so attractive at just 16/1 now. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 6/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 66/1 (now 33/1)

0.4pts each-way on Oscar Gatto at 50/1

0.25pts each-way on Grega Bole at 80/1

0.25pts each-way on Petr Vakoc at 66/1 (now 25/1)

0.25pts each-way on Premeslaw Niemiec at 80/1

Match Bets:

Jan Bakelants to beat Diego Ulissi - 2pts win at 4/6 with Bet365

Oscar Gatto to beat Salvatore Puccio - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365