Tour de France Stage 9: Saint-Girons to Bagnères-de-Bigorre, 168.5km

As the famous commentary line went in the 1966 World Cup final - "they think it's all over", seems a lot of commentators and fans are thinking the same thing after just the first mountain stage, such was Sky, and in particular, Chris Froome's dominance.

Well, the betting odds seem to think so too as he has now shortened to just 1/6 best price and as short as 1/12! He was simply outstanding as he rode away from the remnants of the pack to land a super stage win and a crushing blow to many of his so-called rivals in the first real test. Only his team-mate Porte, who rode an unbelievable stage, first to blow things apart when he came to the front, but then, instead of blowing up and dropping back, as leadout men tend to do, he instead rode away from them to snatch second on the stage and second overall.  Cadel crumbled. Bertie hung on for as long as he could but cracked, but was dragged to a respectable time by a brilliant ride by Kreuziger. Van Garderen blew completely, taking a few of my bets with him as he lost over 10 minutes (said in an audio interview later he just had no power at all). Purito cracked with about 4km to go, but Valverde has possibly emerged as the closest challenger to Sky with a good ride, but even he is available at 25/1 to win! Quintana showed his hand way too early and maybe will learn a lot from that - provided a good in running lay bet though as he shortened way up to around evens.

So a brutally hard first mountain test for the peloton, and what is it followed by? Only a stage with FOUR Cat 1 climbs and a Cat 2 climb at the start to just get them warmed up. The finish is downhill though so it will be a different sort of finish to yesterday's stage.

The stage is shorter than yesterday's one with just 168.5kms but it is a very tough stage with all those Cat1 climbs to get over. It looks like the kind of stage a group of maybe 6-10 will get away on the first or second climb and depending on who is in it may well stay away until the finish. If the lead going to the last climb is long enough, the GC riders may attack each other but may not catch the break, or the remnants of it. 

Who will make this break then if it goes? Very hard to call of course, but a few that interest me at big prices are Dan Martin at 55s - had a hard day yesterday and said he just didn't have the legs at the end but still finished a respectable enough time behind Froome. Says 'today is another day though' and I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to make up for yesterday and get in the early break - he has lost maybe enough time to be left go. Another would be Thomas Voeckler, looks a perfect stage for him, and he is the favourite for the stage at just 10/1 - I think that is a bit short though, his attack yesterday didn't impress at all, unless he was faking it looking to try to get away today!

Others that will like this will be the likes of De Gendt at 28s, loves a long breakaway like this, NIeve, who showed well yesterday so may not be left go - he is a big price at 110s, but maybe look to one of the other Euskatel riders on their home turf - Izaguirre at 75s maybe worth a small bet. Another one to watch though would be Peter Sagan - with the sprint points coming so early, after just 75kms, he may well get in that early break to hoover up them points and may even stay with them all the way. At 30/1 it is a bit short for a non-climber, so to speak, but he is a far better climber than people might think being a 'sprinter'. So he is a wildcard to throw in today for a trading bet.

But what if the break doesn't stay away and the GC riders take over on the last climb? Well with a 30km descent to the finish, look for Valverde to win today's stage at 22/1 - he hopefully will be able to stay with, or pretty close to Froome if he decides to leave them all again on the last climb, and will out do him on the run in I think. A hard day for all though ahead, especially us punters - watch for in-play clues and bets on my twitter accout - @cyclingbetting 

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