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Published on Friday, 05 July 2013 09:56

Tour de France Stage 7: Montpellier - Albi, 205km

Yesterday worked out ok in the end despite Greipel winning, annoyingly considering how I have been backing him up to now to win!

I did back Kittel to place at 6/4, which was one of my headline bets, and also I laid Cav at just under evens in play after his crash as the chase back looked pretty exhausting. (posted on the Kingston Wheelers forum at the time here). So even though I lost out on laying Greipel to place (small) and a small bet on Kittel to beat Greipel in a match bet, it was more than covered by the other two bets. 

Big shame to see Van den Broeck going home with a nasty knee injury, I was looking forward to seeing how he did in the mountains this year. He looked sprightly earlier in the week leading the pack in chase of Rolland on one of the climbs in Corsica. 

Today is an interesting stage and looks made for a breakaway to go early and stay away for quite a while. With two mountains stages coming, the GC guys will be hoping for a quiet day, but there are plenty riders who will be interested in today's rolling stage. Chances are it will all come down to a bunch sprint though, given the toughest climb of the day is 100km or so from the finish. 

The riders hit 4 climbs in total as they roll west to Albi, the toughest being the climb to Col do la Croix Mounis which is pretty steep in parts at the bottom and has Cat 2 status. Expect to see riders like De Gent (80s), Flecha (80s) and Jeremy Roy (120s) to be possibly involved in the early breakaway for trading bets at small stakes. 

Other than that, it will probably come down to a bunch sprint and I can see Sagan finally get off the mark. He has been close so many times already, but with Kittel, Cav and Greipel all with wins now, he will be desperate to take a win. I can see him being in the best shape coming to the finish today of the top sprinters, some of whom possibly might not be in the shake-up and I don't see him making mistakes today. So at 4/1 he is my main win bet for today.

I also fancy Kwiatowski for a place at a big price around 15/1. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Degenkolb and Gerrans also be involved in the finish at big prices to place too.

Update: 15:30 - After a tremendous job by Cannondale, Sagan is 8/11 to win now from 4/1 before hand. It is his to lose for sure.. I am taking a chance and laying EBH to place at evens though, there may be one or two might pip him to the top 3 placing and that is a nice price to lay.

Going to lay back a little of Sagan at that price (1.72) though just in case anything strange happens!

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