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Published on Thursday, 04 July 2013 11:42

Tour de France Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence-Montpellier, 176.5km

Well yesterday was a day to forget as Cavendish confounded the sceptics (me included) to power home ahead of Eddie B and Sagan. Greipel was a disappointment, getting messed about a little with his leadout train and having to jump in behind Cav's wheel in the last 200m or so, a wheel he never was likely to pass.

The surprise of the stage for me was Eddie B - we know he is a powerful sprinter at times but generally he likes the uphill type finishes like in the World's last year.. but it seems Sky have let him have a little fun for now and he outgunned some top sprinters quite easily. 

Today is Cav's to lose, simple as that. A dead flat stage more or less, just one 4th Cat climb which is 100km from the finish so there shouldn't be any problems on that front. The rest of the stage is just one super fast flat charge towards Montpellier, with a nice straight run-in for the last few kilometers.

The only thing that could cause problems are the notorious side winds that can sweep across this area - remember when HTC-Colombia put the hurt on a few years back and split the peloton with that infamous move recounted in great style in 'Chasing Legends'. But I can't see Cav getting caught out by something like that, he was after all in that HTC team..

He is a very short 8/11 for the win with bet365 and 4/5 with betfair and that is a little too short for me to get involved with, as we saw yesterday and many times before, one touch of wheels and that's gone.. I might wait to see if a breakaway gets a good lead like yesterday and his price might drift to odds against.

Instead I am looking for interesting top 3 candidates and I think Eddy B could be a good shout again today at a big 9/2 to get a place. He showed yesterday what super form he is in and is powerful enough to navigate his own path mixing it with the other lead-out trains. I was disappointed with Greipel yesterday, he folded a bit at the end - is he just not as strong as was thought or will he bounce back for revenge today? His train was a bit messed up yesterday, you would expect them to try to improve on that today. I think though at odds on to place it is worth a small lay as I have another fancy for the top 3.

Kittel was taken out in the crash yesterday but I expect him to put in a big showing today. His Argos team have an excellent train in the likes of Degenkolb and Veelers and if they can get it right today and not take it up too soon (let Lotto and OPQS do that) then he could be delivered with a great chance. At 6/4 I am having an interest in that. 

A final bet I like the look of given what I have said above is a match bet between Kittel and Greipel with Kittel 5/4 to beat 4/5 Greipel. It's a day for small stakes though as anything can happen!