Tour de France Stage 4: Nice Team Time Trial, 25kms

Nice to see you, to see you Nice!

So after a fascinating opening to the 2013 Tour de France on the stunning looking island of Corsica, the riders return to the mainland today for the first real chance for the GC to spread out a little (currently there are 74 riders within 1 second of the Yellow Jersey!

The riders take on a 25km dead flat course that runs on big wide open roads with very few bends to negotiate so it is a course for the big engines and good TTT teams can really go flat out at 55kmph plus. The first 1.5km are the most technical with three 90° bends before the riders hit the Promenade des Anglais.

Before the Tour started you would have to have made Omega Pharma Quick Step favourites for this stage, but with Tony Martin, their main engine, battered and bruised they may not be at full strength. Cav is reportedly suffering from some bronchitis issues, and although he is of course a sprinter supreme, he is also very strong in short TTTs like this. 

To me this now makes Garmin Sharp favourites. They are a team packed full of very strong riders and are a super strong unit together, having won the Giro TTT last year. David Millar is their best placed rider and they know that if they win he will take the yellow jersey, and probably hang on to it for 2 or 3 days. The prices are pretty close with OPQS having been backed from 3/1 in to 5/2 but GS are the slight favourites at 9/4 from 5/2 earlier. I really fancy GS for this - Millar says the team is flying and they are going to be going all out to win this stage. It will also help them that they are the 6th team off the ramp, long after OPQS have set them a target to aim for. OPQS have only one team before them in Argos Shimano (see below). 

A trading bet here might be to back OPQS now at 5/2 and lay them off a little bit shorter before GS start as they are probably going to take the lead and set a benchmark I can't see any of the teams after them beating, so they should shorten a little, maybe a half point to 2/1 unless it is a spectacularly good time. 

The Sky team is also battered and bruised with two of their main engines Stannard and G Thomas injured from the crash on day 1. This should maybe see them good enough still though for a top 3, but I don't think they can win it. 

My 'outsider' for this is Movistar - I can see Movistar putting in a big run but looks like I missed all the big prices earlier - they were up around 25/1 earlier, now only about 10/1! I did get matched at 12 for the win, but I think 7/4 is a bit short for top 3 - I am going to wait to see how OPQS do and see if I can get some 2/1 or bigger in running as Movistar go off after the top 3 and if they post reasonable times Movistar's price should drift out. They may not have super individual TT'ers but as a unit they are superb and they came within 9 seconds of beating Sky at the Giro TT over 17kms. OPQS fared really badly in that TT, losing 48 seconds to Sky to finish a lowly 17th. 

So I am backing GS for the win at 3.3 and Movistar at 12 just in case they really rip it - remember they will have all the time checks of the top 3.. I am also after laying OPQS for top 3 at 1.52 and will look to back Movistar in running at 2/1 or bigger, but depends on how I feel it is going at the time. I can see BMC putting in a good ride, maybe fighting for positions 3-6 with OPQS and Belkin. 

Starting Order (CET)

15:15 Argos-Shimano

15:19 Omega Pharma Quickstep

15:23 Lotto-Belisol

15:27 Cannondale

15:31 Cofidis

15:35 FDJ

15:39 Belkin

15:43 Garmin-Sharp

15:47 Euskaltel

15:51 Sky

15:55 Katusha

15:59 Sojasun

16:03 Astana

16:07 Movistar

16:11 Team Saxo-Tinkoff

16:15 Europcar

16:19 AG2R

16:23 Orica-GreenEdge

16:27 Lampre

16:31 Vacansoleil-DCM

16:35 BMC

16:39 Radioshack Leopard Trek